They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
I did this for Seattle 2. I only was willing to travel to see them if I scored GA. Not worth being in the stands at a baseball stadium, for me at least. I put in for both Oakland shows as I live about 10 miles from there, but probably will only go to 1 if I wind up in crappy seats for both nights. I figure I'll get at least GA one night or at least decent seats. I would guess there are some fans who wouldn't want to travel to sit in less that great seats or GA.
That's where I'm at. Friend of mine really wants me to travel down to the oakland shows (which seem to be the closest shows to Vancouver Island). I know full well they'll most likely tour up here in the next 12 or so months. Still.. when your the person who usually does the convincing, and now your on the opposite end with someone convincing you.
I think it's going to come down to GA or bust. A coin flip on whether or not I should go. The problem being we are both fan club members. So it's possible if we each go for GA or bust on a single night each, than one of us wins, and one of us doesn't. No way I travel that way without going to both. So we'd have to try and find additional tickets via another method.
I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available. Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available. Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
Take a look at the seat map. 10C secured an extraordinary amount of tickets. In the past the 10C alottment was about 10% of capacity. Now It's >50%. Plus you can sign up for only 1 Ticket. 99% seems accurate to me.
Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants) Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable) Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above
So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2
You just summarized it in a way, that is precise and easy to understand at the same_time. Thank you for that!
I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available. Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
Think of it this way, the MSG Reserved odds in 2016 was about 20%. So that's 5000 requests for 1000 pairs. 5000 requests for the 2020 show would still show odds of 99%.
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II 2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II 2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
So I have a question on strategy based on the latest odds. I plan on putting in for MSG and the Phoenix shows and considering that Phoenix is still showing 99% for reserved seats, should I put in MSG as 1st priority (best available) and then Phoenix as my 2nd priority (best available)? I believe this would give me the greatest chance to get tickets to both shows. And yes, I understand that nothing is guaranteed with this lottery.
If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert.
MSG fits almost 21K for a concert
Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections
I was responding to the "MSG fits around 14k for a concert" part.
As for your post, the current thinking is Ten Club doesn't have all the shaded sections, just GA and portions of the blue shaded sections. It's very unlikely they have been provided 12K out of 21K tickets.
I don’t think that all the blue is 10c only unless I missed something. I think the greyed our part has no 10c seats and if selected by 10c for reserved, you can be anywhere that is blue.
I don’t think that all the blue is 10c only unless I missed something. I think the greyed our part has no 10c seats and if selected by 10c for reserved, you can be anywhere that is blue.
Yes they could only have a pair (not likely) in one of those blue sections or they could have 200 pairs.
Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
Take a look at the seat map. 10C secured an extraordinary amount of tickets. In the past the 10C alottment was about 10% of capacity. Now It's >50%. Plus you can sign up for only 1 Ticket. 99% seems accurate to me.
I doubt it's ALL of those areas. Most likely end seat and front rows(hopefully). Either that or they made a sweet deal with TM and gave them the really good seats so PJ fans are left w whatever to appease us.
Not sure but I know in the past we never has 200's for fan club.
Question on reserved seating. All entries have the same odds. Once selected, are the seats assigned by seniority in the 10c? Or is that random as well? I know many past shows were based on seniority but I haven't seen anything regarding the upcoming tour
So I have a question on strategy based on the latest odds. I plan on putting in for MSG and the Phoenix shows and considering that Phoenix is still showing 99% for reserved seats, should I put in MSG as 1st priority (best available) and then Phoenix as my 2nd priority (best available)? I believe this would give me the greatest chance to get tickets to both shows. And yes, I understand that nothing is guaranteed with this lottery.
I asked a similar question in another thread. So basically if you just want to be in the building at both shows put MSG down as your first choice. If you really want GA at Phoenix then put that as your first choice with the risk of missing out on MSG altogether.
Question on reserved seating. All entries have the same odds. Once selected, are the seats assigned by seniority in the 10c? Or is that random as well? I know many past shows were based on seniority but I haven't seen anything regarding the upcoming tour
Comments
Baltimore: 19/91
MSG: 13/80
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 41/99
OKC: 99/99
Denver: 46/99
PHX: 79/99
SD: 70/99
LA1: 54/99
LA2: 51/99
OAK1: 64/99
OAK2: 83/99
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
TO 40 / 99
OTT 77 / 99
QBC 99 / 99
HAM 51 / 99
Take a look at the seat map. 10C secured an extraordinary amount of tickets. In the past the 10C alottment was about 10% of capacity. Now It's >50%. Plus you can sign up for only 1 Ticket. 99% seems accurate to me.
STOP THE CONSPIRACY THEORY
The odds work.
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
nice.......
2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
Baltimore: 19/91
MSG: 13/80
Nashville: 28/99
StL: 28/99
OKC: 92/99
Denver: 35/99
PHX: 54/99
SD: 51/99
LA1: 42/99
LA2: 39/99
OAK1: 45/99
OAK2: 57/99
ISO 2016 Greenville shirt. Size medium. PM me if you have one for sale/trade.
Baltimore: 19/91
MSG: 13/80
Nashville: 28/99
St. Louis: 28/99
OKC: 92/99
Denver: 35/99
Phoenix: 54/99
San Diego: 51/99
LA 1: 42/99
LA 2: 39/99
Oakland 1: 42/99
Oakland 2: 57/99
Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections
As for your post, the current thinking is Ten Club doesn't have all the shaded sections, just GA and portions of the blue shaded sections. It's very unlikely they have been provided 12K out of 21K tickets.
Not sure but I know in the past we never has 200's for fan club.
phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K
Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K