North American Tour Odds

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Comments

  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,953
    MD190661 said:
    what dreams said:
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
    I did this for Seattle 2. I only was willing to travel to see them if I scored GA. Not worth being in the stands at a baseball stadium, for me at least. I put in for both Oakland shows as I live about 10 miles from there, but probably will only go to 1 if I wind up in crappy seats for both nights. I figure I'll get at least GA one night or at least decent seats. I would guess there are some fans who wouldn't want to travel to sit in less that great seats or GA.  

    That's where I'm at.  Friend of mine really wants me to travel down to the oakland shows (which seem to be the closest shows to Vancouver Island).   I know full well they'll most likely tour up here in the next 12 or so months.   Still.. when your the person who usually does the convincing, and now your on the opposite end with someone convincing you.

    I think it's going to come down to GA or bust.  A coin flip on whether or not I should go.   The problem being we are both fan club members.   So it's possible if we each go for GA or bust on a single night each, than one of us wins, and one of us doesn't.   No way I travel that way without going to both.   So we'd have to try and find additional tickets via another method.
  • Mozzy
    Mozzy Posts: 154
    edited January 2020
    Odds have updated

    Baltimore: 19/91
    MSG: 13/80
    Nashville: 28/99
    StL: 41/99
    OKC: 99/99
    Denver: 46/99
    PHX: 79/99
    SD: 70/99
    LA1: 54/99
    LA2: 51/99
    OAK1: 64/99
    OAK2: 83/99
    Post edited by Mozzy on
  • JimmyV
    JimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,613
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    Can't speak for anyone else but MSG on a Monday night in March holds very little appeal for me. This east coast guy never even considered entering. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • RoleModelsinBlood31
    RoleModelsinBlood31 Austin TX Posts: 6,249
    I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available.  Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
    I'm like an opening band for your mom.
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    New Canadian odds. 

    TO 40 / 99
    OTT 77 / 99
    QBC 99 / 99
    HAM 51 / 99
  • pjl44
    pjl44 Posts: 10,662
    RoleModelsinBlood31 said:
    I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available.  Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
    See the update 2 posts up
  • CopperTom
    CopperTom Posts: 3,149
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?

     Take a look at the seat map.  10C secured an extraordinary amount of tickets.  In the past the 10C alottment was about 10% of capacity.  Now It's >50%.  Plus you can sign up for  only 1 Ticket.  99% seems accurate to me.
    http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=28
  • maximumlawman
    maximumlawman Regensburg, Germany Posts: 229
    benjs said:
    Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
    Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
    Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

    So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
    • Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
    • Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
    • If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2
    You just summarized it in a way, that is precise and easy to understand at the same_time. Thank you for that! 
  • tylermoore
    tylermoore St. Joseph, MI Posts: 1,116
    edited January 2020
    .
    Post edited by tylermoore on
  • RoleModelsinBlood31
    RoleModelsinBlood31 Austin TX Posts: 6,249
    pjl44 said:
    RoleModelsinBlood31 said:
    I find it very hard to believe that every single show still has 99% as reserved available.  Of course that would be amazing and props to 10c, but I’m a skeptic so I feel like something’s up
    See the update 2 posts up
    Good deal, thank you
    I'm like an opening band for your mom.
  • CopperTom
    CopperTom Posts: 3,149
    Think of it this way, the MSG Reserved odds in 2016 was about 20%.  So that's 5000 requests for 1000 pairs.  5000 requests for the 2020 show would still show odds of 99%.

    STOP THE CONSPIRACY THEORY

    The odds work.
    http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=28
  • jdizzle8291
    jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    Mozzy said:
    Odds have updated

    Baltimore: 19/91
    MSG: 13/80
    Nashville: 28/99
    StL: 41/99
    OKC: 99/99
    Denver: 46/99
    PHX: 79/99
    SD: 70/99
    LA1: 54/99
    LA2: 51/99
    OAK1: 64/99
    OAK2: 83/99
    Well there you have it, reserved odds below 99

    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • jdizzle8291
    jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    PJNB said:
    New Canadian odds. 

    TO 40 / 99
    OTT 77 / 99
    QBC 99 / 99
    HAM 51 / 99

    nice.......
    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • JojoRice
    JojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 4,554
    edited January 2020
    Im seeing these odds currently...GA odds starting to go down across the board. 
    Baltimore: 19/91
    MSG: 13/80
    Nashville: 28/99
    StL: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 35/99
    PHX: 54/99
    SD: 51/99
    LA1: 42/99
    LA2: 39/99
    OAK1: 45/99
    OAK2: 57/99
    "I got memories, I got shit"
  • Goneshootin
    Goneshootin Posts: 14
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
  • sheri zona
    sheri zona Makai Side Posts: 356
    They've changed, even in the last hour:

    Baltimore: 19/91
    MSG: 13/80
    Nashville: 28/99
    St. Louis: 28/99
    OKC: 92/99
    Denver: 35/99
    Phoenix: 54/99
    San Diego: 51/99
    LA 1: 42/99
    LA 2: 39/99
    Oakland 1: 42/99
    Oakland 2: 57/99
    in an underwater nation...near chinamans hat
  • BennyLaRue
    BennyLaRue Posts: 751
    Goneshootin said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
    MSG fits almost 21K for a concert
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,396
    BennyLaRue said:
    Goneshootin said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
    MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

    Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections


  • grizaham
    grizaham Nashville, TN Posts: 341
    Ive been enjoying some reserve seats lately.  So you're saying i'll have a chance at reserves?  ;-)
    Seen PJ 21 times live from 1994-2019

  • Alpine Bound
    Alpine Bound Posts: 1,809
    what time(s) are odds getting updated? 

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