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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    The tariffs were also stupid and are a contributor,  but not a cause to the upcoming recession.

    Trump's political problem is that his fortunes are tied to the macro economy by both design and lack of any other meaningful success. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 
    I agree with you man.  A lot of the Feds decisions absolutely had to be made.  This is the painful reality of what would inevitably come from those decisions though. To say this is all a trump problem (not you) is absolute nonsense. 
    The fed does a good job if softening blows,  compared to economic cycles in the 18th, 19th and much of the 20th centur . In particular,  I think QE is genius and I expect Trump to begin screaming for it in the next 90 days. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    Around a 100 gain so far this morning.  I would expect a late sell off and big gain, maybe half back what was lost, tomorrow.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    -20 now.
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,593
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    You still don't think Trump is going to make America great again?  Oh ye of little faith! 


    :wink:
    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,141
    edited August 2019
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
    Can't two things be true though? The low rates for so long mean there's not much ammunition to help stop the coming recession. That is definitely the case and I've often wondered what would happened when another recession hit. But Trump has, very publicly, called for the fed to lower rates and they capitulated to his demands last month. And the tax cuts and trade wars definitely did nothing to help. 

    Trump also cannot claim credit for a good jobs report a month into office (which he had nothing to do with) and then also not take any blame for a recession 3 years into his term. He has been trying to have it both ways and it's easy to see through that bullshit. To say this is not a Trump problem is disingenuous at best. Mistakes were made before he took over but this is most definitely his economy now.




    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,141
    edited August 2019
    One thing I am concerned about is Trump clearly doesn't trust the fed, who he should lean on. Instead these are the guys who are going to have to solve this issue:
    Mnuchin---the financier of Lego Batman
    Kudlow--played an economist on tv
    Navarro--resume was found randomly online by Kushner
    Trump--bankrupted a casino four separate times.

    This is most definitely a Trump problem. When he took office he surrounded himself with the JV team of advisors. Now we are down to the 7th grade gym class. He has been lucky to have no seriously huge issue to care about up to this point. But it's coming right around the corner and we've got a bunch of dopes to count on steering us to safer waters. 

    There is already reporting that they're not even doing anything to prepare, choosing instead to highlite the jobs numbers and stuff...
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
    Can't two things be true though? The low rates for so long mean there's not much ammunition to help stop the coming recession. That is definitely the case and I've often wondered what would happened when another recession hit. But Trump has, very publicly, called for the fed to lower rates and they capitulated to his demands last month. And the tax cuts and trade wars definitely did nothing to help. 

    Trump also cannot claim credit for a good jobs report a month into office (which he had nothing to do with) and then also not take any blame for a recession 3 years into his term. He has been trying to have it both ways and it's easy to see through that bullshit. To say this is not a Trump problem is disingenuous at best. Mistakes were made before he took over but this is most definitely his economy now.




    Absolutely, two things can be true.  I may have done a bad job of expressing that, but I am sitting here saying that Trump fully has to accept partial responsibility here.  What I strongly disagree with is the viewpoint that Trump is the sole reason we are staring down a potential recession.  That to me is not accurate at all. Also, trump calling for the fed to lower rates shouldn’t mean anything. If the Fed can’t act independently of the pressure from a president tweeting at them, then we have much bigger problems on our hands. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,141
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
    Can't two things be true though? The low rates for so long mean there's not much ammunition to help stop the coming recession. That is definitely the case and I've often wondered what would happened when another recession hit. But Trump has, very publicly, called for the fed to lower rates and they capitulated to his demands last month. And the tax cuts and trade wars definitely did nothing to help. 

    Trump also cannot claim credit for a good jobs report a month into office (which he had nothing to do with) and then also not take any blame for a recession 3 years into his term. He has been trying to have it both ways and it's easy to see through that bullshit. To say this is not a Trump problem is disingenuous at best. Mistakes were made before he took over but this is most definitely his economy now.




    Absolutely, two things can be true.  I may have done a bad job of expressing that, but I am sitting here saying that Trump fully has to accept partial responsibility here.  What I strongly disagree with is the viewpoint that Trump is the sole reason we are staring down a potential recession.  That to me is not accurate at all. Also, trump calling for the fed to lower rates shouldn’t mean anything. If the Fed can’t act independently of the pressure from a president tweeting at them, then we have much bigger problems on our hands. 
    I think that's exactly what happened...
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
    Can't two things be true though? The low rates for so long mean there's not much ammunition to help stop the coming recession. That is definitely the case and I've often wondered what would happened when another recession hit. But Trump has, very publicly, called for the fed to lower rates and they capitulated to his demands last month. And the tax cuts and trade wars definitely did nothing to help. 

    Trump also cannot claim credit for a good jobs report a month into office (which he had nothing to do with) and then also not take any blame for a recession 3 years into his term. He has been trying to have it both ways and it's easy to see through that bullshit. To say this is not a Trump problem is disingenuous at best. Mistakes were made before he took over but this is most definitely his economy now.




    Absolutely, two things can be true.  I may have done a bad job of expressing that, but I am sitting here saying that Trump fully has to accept partial responsibility here.  What I strongly disagree with is the viewpoint that Trump is the sole reason we are staring down a potential recession.  That to me is not accurate at all. Also, trump calling for the fed to lower rates shouldn’t mean anything. If the Fed can’t act independently of the pressure from a president tweeting at them, then we have much bigger problems on our hands. 
    I think that's exactly what happened...
    Then Powell should be shown the door. That is pretty f’n weak for the chairman of the Fed to succumb to pressures from the President.  Even if so, the current climate does not fall solely on Trump.  It’s just coming to a head finally. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    There’s zero chance we’re going to find a point that we agree on here. The bottom line is that this has been a decade in the making.  The Fed’s policies have been the driving force of all of this, despite the fact you think the Dems saved the day and the Repubs fucked it all up.  I’ve been calling for this band aid to be ripped off for years; even before 2016 (gasp). As mrussell said, trumps tax cuts did nothing but prolong the inevitable and artificially kept the stock market humming. That is definitely a contributor. But to say the dems walk on water and the Repubs blew it (strictly as it relates to the economy and markets) is where you lost me. 
    Can't two things be true though? The low rates for so long mean there's not much ammunition to help stop the coming recession. That is definitely the case and I've often wondered what would happened when another recession hit. But Trump has, very publicly, called for the fed to lower rates and they capitulated to his demands last month. And the tax cuts and trade wars definitely did nothing to help. 

    Trump also cannot claim credit for a good jobs report a month into office (which he had nothing to do with) and then also not take any blame for a recession 3 years into his term. He has been trying to have it both ways and it's easy to see through that bullshit. To say this is not a Trump problem is disingenuous at best. Mistakes were made before he took over but this is most definitely his economy now.




    Absolutely, two things can be true.  I may have done a bad job of expressing that, but I am sitting here saying that Trump fully has to accept partial responsibility here.  What I strongly disagree with is the viewpoint that Trump is the sole reason we are staring down a potential recession.  That to me is not accurate at all. Also, trump calling for the fed to lower rates shouldn’t mean anything. If the Fed can’t act independently of the pressure from a president tweeting at them, then we have much bigger problems on our hands. 
    I think that's exactly what happened...
    Then Powell should be shown the door. That is pretty f’n weak for the chairman of the Fed to succumb to pressures from the President.  Even if so, the current climate does not fall solely on Trump.  It’s just coming to a head finally. 
    The fed pressure is new and unique. I agree that he absolutely should do what he and the governors believe is proper.  But just because Trump called for a cut doesn't mean it wasn't in order.  It's sort of the broken clock thing.  He complains so much,  he's bound to be right on something.  He's called for cuts that didn't happen as well. 
  • RoleModelsinBlood31RoleModelsinBlood31 Austin TX Posts: 6,136
    I’m up 13.5% on the year still and today jumped another .25%, after figuring I’d dump almost 3-5%.

    i’m not believing the hype just yet.  Cautious of course but there’s businesses still booming out there. Shit as a business owner a lot of what I see first hand is consumer happiness and people spending cash.  There’s individual stocks world wide that are pouring in the positive numbers, you just can’t fall for the usual oversold ones the news brokers report, do your homework. 
    I'm like an opening band for your mom.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    I’m up 13.5% on the year still and today jumped another .25%, after figuring I’d dump almost 3-5%.

    i’m not believing the hype just yet.  Cautious of course but there’s businesses still booming out there. Shit as a business owner a lot of what I see first hand is consumer happiness and people spending cash.  There’s individual stocks world wide that are pouring in the positive numbers, you just can’t fall for the usual oversold ones the news brokers report, do your homework. 
    It's not about individual stocks,  it's about the macro trends that are ominous.  And consumer spending along with its corollary employment metrics are lagging indicators, which is what you're seeing at your restaurant.  The leading indicators like manufacturing and inventories are pointing down.  This is after auto dealers had to flush substantial inventories.  Now they're cutting 3rd shifts and they're not expected to come back soon. 
    I made a bet with a client that we'd be in a recession by summer 19. We made the bet right when the tax cuts were passed.  I think I might win it once the GDP numbers come in later this year 
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 40,593
    Stock market:

    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    mrussel1 said:
    I’m up 13.5% on the year still and today jumped another .25%, after figuring I’d dump almost 3-5%.

    i’m not believing the hype just yet.  Cautious of course but there’s businesses still booming out there. Shit as a business owner a lot of what I see first hand is consumer happiness and people spending cash.  There’s individual stocks world wide that are pouring in the positive numbers, you just can’t fall for the usual oversold ones the news brokers report, do your homework. 
    It's not about individual stocks,  it's about the macro trends that are ominous.  And consumer spending along with its corollary employment metrics are lagging indicators, which is what you're seeing at your restaurant.  The leading indicators like manufacturing and inventories are pointing down.  This is after auto dealers had to flush substantial inventories.  Now they're cutting 3rd shifts and they're not expected to come back soon. 
    I made a bet with a client that we'd be in a recession by summer 19. We made the bet right when the tax cuts were passed.  I think I might win it once the GDP numbers come in later this year 
    Very good points.  Individual stocks mean nothing in the big picture. Sure, some investors can beat a down market by picking winners (very few), but the overall outlook is bleak. Sounds like you might be collecting some winnings on your bet. Congrats (I think?). Lol 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
    Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

    The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
    Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

    The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 
    I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
    Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

    The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 
    I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.
    True,  and at the same time a buildup in diesel can portend a reduction in shipping,  like Mickey is seeing,  construction,  etc. 
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,418
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
    Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

    The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 
    I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.
    True,  and at the same time a buildup in diesel can portend a reduction in shipping,  like Mickey is seeing,  construction,  etc. 
    US oil production isnt tied to OPEC and their inventory manipulation to inflate prices as much as they can. So we keep pumping it out.
    Freight being down means less miles being driven which means less fuel needed.

    Also not seeing as many container trains.

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mickeyrat said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm expecting a big Friday rally.
    Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

    The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 
    I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.
    True,  and at the same time a buildup in diesel can portend a reduction in shipping,  like Mickey is seeing,  construction,  etc. 
    US oil production isnt tied to OPEC and their inventory manipulation to inflate prices as much as they can. So we keep pumping it out.
    Freight being down means less miles being driven which means less fuel needed.

    Also not seeing as many container trains.

    When crude drops below,  I believe high 40s, that's the shutdown price for low quality frack fuel.  At that point,  many wells and refineries will close here,  and then we know the recession is on. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,418
    mrussel1 said:
    Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now
    havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mickeyrat said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now
    havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....
    The big dogs laid off tons of people.  If I recall,  Halliburton laid off almost 10% of its workforce. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    mrussel1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now
    havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....
    The big dogs laid off tons of people.  If I recall,  Halliburton laid off almost 10% of its workforce. 
    Yes, oil fields in Oklahoma laid off a bunch and drilling in the gulf slowed down.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    So.. yeah... this trade war thing seems to be working out just fine 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    mrussel1 said:
    So.. yeah... this trade war thing seems to be working out just fine 
    Tired of winning yet? Maybe you feel like spiking the ball? Or impeachment? Because, you know,

    “There was no collusion.”
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    “I’ll sit down and talk with anyone.”
    “We do everything by the book.”
    “Only the guilty plea the fifth.”
    “Very legal, very cool.”
    “Fully exonerated.”
    “Essentially no obstruction.”

    Follow the money from Russia with love and a PTape all the way to impeachment.
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  • SmellymanSmellyman Asia Posts: 4,517
    I’m up 13.5% on the year still and today jumped another .25%, after figuring I’d dump almost 3-5%.

    i’m not believing the hype just yet.  Cautious of course but there’s businesses still booming out there. Shit as a business owner a lot of what I see first hand is consumer happiness and people spending cash.  There’s individual stocks world wide that are pouring in the positive numbers, you just can’t fall for the usual oversold ones the news brokers report, do your homework. 
    On Climate Change.

    Weather is fine here.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    Let’s see how China fairs this week with the tariff thingy going on.
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