Auto-Save Draft feature temporarily disabled. Please be sure you manually save your post by selecting "Save Draft" if you have that need.

Stock market

2456720

Comments

  • dankinddankind I am not your foot. Posts: 17,877
    Final call was 798 down.

    There is an article that talks about the T note and the trend it is in.  The last time this happened the global recession started.  This time around I will be paying even more close attention to the markets and the trends.
    On days like today, I really miss working on Wall Street.

    Oh, and Southeast Asia isn't going to weather the next recession as well as it did the last one. 
    I SAW PEARL JAM
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    dankind said:
    Final call was 798 down.

    There is an article that talks about the T note and the trend it is in.  The last time this happened the global recession started.  This time around I will be paying even more close attention to the markets and the trends.
    On days like today, I really miss working on Wall Street.

    Oh, and Southeast Asia isn't going to weather the next recession as well as it did the last one. 
    If you mean China?  I picture them falling really hard.
  • dankinddankind I am not your foot. Posts: 17,877
    dankind said:
    Final call was 798 down.

    There is an article that talks about the T note and the trend it is in.  The last time this happened the global recession started.  This time around I will be paying even more close attention to the markets and the trends.
    On days like today, I really miss working on Wall Street.

    Oh, and Southeast Asia isn't going to weather the next recession as well as it did the last one. 
    If you mean China?  I picture them falling really hard.
    China's weakening position is one reason why Southeast Asia won't fare as well.
    I SAW PEARL JAM
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, ColoradoPosts: 8,809
    I blame Obama
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    I blame Obama
    It's because of the emails, stop it.
  • jeffbrjeffbr SeattlePosts: 7,177
    Final call was 798 down.

    There is an article that talks about the T note and the trend it is in.  The last time this happened the global recession started.  This time around I will be paying even more close attention to the markets and the trends.
    Smart. I am mortified that this thread shows that in 2007 I was in denial. All of my adult life things had been going up, up, up! And I didn't believe in 2007 that the recession was just around the corner. I ignored it and pretty much lost everything. I was heavily leveraged and when the bottom dropped out I couldn't make margin calls. Follow 2008 with the 2010 housing crash and I had pretty much lost everything. Went from living the high life to being a pauper. And without wealth I guess my then wife decided it was the right time to bail, too! lol. It changed the way I thought (and think) about everything from politics to investing to my own personal life and relationships. Anyway, lessons learned. One lesson is to not take financial advice from my 2007 self!

    Good time to resurrect this thread. Let 2007 be an object lesson. Pay attention to the indicators. Don't believe the hype.
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    jeffbr said:
    Final call was 798 down.

    There is an article that talks about the T note and the trend it is in.  The last time this happened the global recession started.  This time around I will be paying even more close attention to the markets and the trends.
    Smart. I am mortified that this thread shows that in 2007 I was in denial. All of my adult life things had been going up, up, up! And I didn't believe in 2007 that the recession was just around the corner. I ignored it and pretty much lost everything. I was heavily leveraged and when the bottom dropped out I couldn't make margin calls. Follow 2008 with the 2010 housing crash and I had pretty much lost everything. Went from living the high life to being a pauper. And without wealth I guess my then wife decided it was the right time to bail, too! lol. It changed the way I thought (and think) about everything from politics to investing to my own personal life and relationships. Anyway, lessons learned. One lesson is to not take financial advice from my 2007 self!

    Good time to resurrect this thread. Let 2007 be an object lesson. Pay attention to the indicators. Don't believe the hype.
    I went through and read some of the comments and was shocked that the thread didn't continue.

    I'm glad you see things differently now.  I'll be paying attention and start the big PJ sell off now.
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,964
    It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 21,562
    All signs point to a recession.  I tend to think we're there practically,  even if GDP isn't negative this quarter.  I do some work with a PE, and they have been selling off portfolios that are sensitive to macro trends,  specifically casual restaurants.  They started that process in the first quarter and wrapping up deals now.  
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 21,562
    bbiggs said:
    It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 
    Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,964
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 
    Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 
    I’m right there with you. I don’t overreact or get emotional with these wild swings. I’m 38 and am in it for the long haul.  But you don’t think we’ll see the market lose 10%? The high point for the Dow was roughly 27K. We’re already down around 5.5% from the high. I think we’ll see losses far exceed 10% within the next year or two. Good buying opportunity if/when that happens. We shall see. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 21,562
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 
    Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 
    I’m right there with you. I don’t overreact or get emotional with these wild swings. I’m 38 and am in it for the long haul.  But you don’t think we’ll see the market lose 10%? The high point for the Dow was roughly 27K. We’re already down around 5.5% from the high. I think we’ll see losses far exceed 10% within the next year or two. Good buying opportunity if/when that happens. We shall see. 
    Yes I do.  I could hide in bonds or something,  but the vast majority of my money is institutional,  not in individual stocks.  I do have a fair amount if etrade money wrapped in Google,  but I still believe in them and won't move it. 
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 21,321
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain.Posts: 34,296
    If things really get bad, we got tons of books and books come from trees which are a form of plant life and plants make good food.  We'll be fine. :smile:
    “In all human affairs there are efforts, and there are results, and the strength of the effort is the measure of the result.”
    -James Allen










  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 27,939
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 21,321
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
    not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

    when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......
    standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

    for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
    not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

    when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......
    standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

    for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....
    Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

    When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

    Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,964
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 21,321
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
    not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

    when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......
    standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

    for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....
    Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

    When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

    Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  
    who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 27,939
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
    not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

    when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......
    standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

    for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....
    Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

    When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

    Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  
    who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.
    One place that comes to mind is Andrew Yang.  

    Amazon doesn't like paying people to do jobs that can be automated.  They like profits so trucking is one way they can get rid of that.  It's coming.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 21,562
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 27,111
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 
    When we do have a recession what is the bubble here?  I can't find one that is so inflated that you know it's popping.

    Maybe prime real estate?  

    Stock prices?
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 27,939
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 
    When we do have a recession what is the bubble here?  I can't find one that is so inflated that you know it's popping.

    Maybe prime real estate?  

    Stock prices?
    Consumer debt.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 21,321
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

    I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

    you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

    looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal
    Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

    @mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?
    not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

    when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......
    standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

    for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....
    Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

    When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

    Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  
    who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.
    One place that comes to mind is Andrew Yang.  

    Amazon doesn't like paying people to do jobs that can be automated.  They like profits so trucking is one way they can get rid of that.  It's coming.
    on their property maybe you lose a few spotter positions. industry wide? long long way off. there are simply too many variables in everyday work for autonomous to take over.  then you have bulk liquids, thats a real feel thing. a computer cant feel....
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,964
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 5,964
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 
    I agree with you man.  A lot of the Feds decisions absolutely had to be made.  This is the painful reality of what would inevitably come from those decisions though. To say this is all a trump problem (not you) is absolute nonsense. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 27,939
    bbiggs said:
    bbiggs said:
    But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.
    The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 
    Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.
    There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 
    Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
Sign In or Register to comment.