Stock market

mickeyrat

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

I'm expecting a big Friday rally.

Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 

I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.

True,  and at the same time a buildup in diesel can portend a reduction in shipping,  like Mickey is seeing,  construction,  etc. 

US oil production isnt tied to OPEC and their inventory manipulation to inflate prices as much as they can. So we keep pumping it out.

Freight being down means less miles being driven which means less fuel needed.

Also not seeing as many container trains.

mrussel1

mickeyrat said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

I'm expecting a big Friday rally.

Futures are way up.  But this is how it will go for the next 18 to 24 months I think.  Good days and bad days, but very choppy.  The bad ones will outnumber the good. 

The lead on Yahoo Finance is unexpected inventory build on crude.  That's a small sign,  but still part of the picture. 

I would think that oil is dead.  With the conflicts that have happened and no major spike in price in a few years.  I for one am happy about it and oil companies still make their comfortable billions in profits.

True,  and at the same time a buildup in diesel can portend a reduction in shipping,  like Mickey is seeing,  construction,  etc. 

US oil production isnt tied to OPEC and their inventory manipulation to inflate prices as much as they can. So we keep pumping it out.

Freight being down means less miles being driven which means less fuel needed.

Also not seeing as many container trains.

When crude drops below,  I believe high 40s, that's the shutdown price for low quality frack fuel.  At that point,  many wells and refineries will close here,  and then we know the recession is on. 

mrussel1

Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now

mickeyrat

mrussel1 said:

Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now

havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....

mrussel1

mickeyrat said:

mrussel1 said:

Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now

havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....

The big dogs laid off tons of people.  If I recall,  Halliburton laid off almost 10% of its workforce. 

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

mrussel1 said:

Edit,  it looks like break even is 50 a barrel, so we're close right now

havent we been here before somewhat recently? and we didnt stop? like when OPEC cut production to shed inventory and increase prices eventually? only the small timers will or just fold.....

The big dogs laid off tons of people.  If I recall,  Halliburton laid off almost 10% of its workforce. 

Yes, oil fields in Oklahoma laid off a bunch and drilling in the gulf slowed down.

mrussel1

So.. yeah... this trade war thing seems to be working out just fine 

Halifax2TheMax

mrussel1 said:

So.. yeah... this trade war thing seems to be working out just fine 

Tired of winning yet? Maybe you feel like spiking the ball? Or impeachment? Because, you know,

“There was no collusion.”

“I have nothing to hide.”

“I don’t know any Russians.”

“I’ll sit down and talk with anyone.”

“We do everything by the book.”

“Only the guilty plea the fifth.”

“Very legal, very cool.”

“Fully exonerated.”

“Essentially no obstruction.”

Follow the money from Russia with love and a PTape all the way to impeachment.

Smellyman

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

I’m up 13.5% on the year still and today jumped another .25%, after figuring I’d dump almost 3-5%.

i’m not believing the hype just yet.  Cautious of course but there’s businesses still booming out there. Shit as a business owner a lot of what I see first hand is consumer happiness and people spending cash.  There’s individual stocks world wide that are pouring in the positive numbers, you just can’t fall for the usual oversold ones the news brokers report, do your homework. 

On Climate Change.

Weather is fine here.

tempo_n_groove

Let’s see how China fairs this week with the tariff thingy going on.

CM189191

this morning ought to be fun
how much more will my 401k lose?

josevolution

CM189191 said:

this morning ought to be fun
how much more will my 401k lose?

I’ve stopped looking at mine ..

mrussel1

YIKES!
Worst 30 year rate since 2007!
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/us-treasurys-investors-monitor-trade-developments.html

mrussel1

Reviving this sucker. Trading halted at 8 pm on Sunday night due to meet the 5% loss threshold.  Oil crashed.  Shale production will now stop, as its below the shut down price.  This affects quite a few US jobs.  Yield down to 1%.  

Going to be a helluva week.

brianlux

My wife must be the most optimistic person on the face of the earth.  She's really into watching the market and keeps telling me "it will be alright" and "you have to look at the long range picture" and "when it goes down, that's the time to by" and that sort of thing.  She talks about "stop losses" and such.  I kind of look at her and nod and in my little cloud bubble above my head it say, "I'm glad we've got some cash stashed away."  and, "Well, at least the mortgage is fairly low and we have no other debts." 

And plenty of "read and then burn for fuel" if the going really gets rough. 

But, yeah, seriously, things are getting interesting.   We've been through rough times before- the great depression, the dust bowl, to name a few.  Looks like it's time to become creative, ambitious, and tenacious once again.

mrussel1

brianlux said:

My wife must be the most optimistic person on the face of the earth.  She's really into watching the market and keeps telling me "it will be alright" and "you have to look at the long range picture" and "when it goes down, that's the time to by" and that sort of thing.  She talks about "stop losses" and such.  I kind of look at her and nod and in my little cloud bubble above my head it say, "I'm glad we've got some cash stashed away."  and, "Well, at least the mortgage is fairly low and we have no other debts." 

And plenty of "read and then burn for fuel" if the going really gets rough. 

But, yeah, seriously, things are getting interesting.   We've been through rough times before- the great depression, the dust bowl, to name a few.  Looks like it's time to become creative, ambitious, and tenacious once again.

Your wife is right.  This is all short term, maybe a month, maybe 6 months.  I wouldn't buy now though, that's for sure.  I think we have some more dropping to do.  The virus needs to slow down first.  Right now, it's accelerating. 

oftenreading

Panic always fucks up things that didn’t need to be fucked up. This didn’t need to happen. The markets will recover. 

mrussel1

oftenreading said:

Panic always fucks up things that didn’t need to be fucked up. This didn’t need to happen. The markets will recover. 

It will recover, but the market is right.  Profits and earning are likely to be way down in the next quarter or two.  The economic hit from this is real.  Every company I deal with has cancelled travel for the next 30 days to start.  Think about the effect on airline revenue, hotels, food, bars, etc.  That's just one little microcosm.  Then extrapolate it.  

mickeyrat

I surely hope this has companies rethinking so much manufacturing and import from China

brianlux

mrussel1 said:

brianlux said:

My wife must be the most optimistic person on the face of the earth.  She's really into watching the market and keeps telling me "it will be alright" and "you have to look at the long range picture" and "when it goes down, that's the time to by" and that sort of thing.  She talks about "stop losses" and such.  I kind of look at her and nod and in my little cloud bubble above my head it say, "I'm glad we've got some cash stashed away."  and, "Well, at least the mortgage is fairly low and we have no other debts." 

And plenty of "read and then burn for fuel" if the going really gets rough. 

But, yeah, seriously, things are getting interesting.   We've been through rough times before- the great depression, the dust bowl, to name a few.  Looks like it's time to become creative, ambitious, and tenacious once again.

Your wife is right.  This is all short term, maybe a month, maybe 6 months.  I wouldn't buy now though, that's for sure.  I think we have some more dropping to do.  The virus needs to slow down first.  Right now, it's accelerating. 

Good to know.

oftenreading said:

Panic always fucks up things that didn’t need to be fucked up. This didn’t need to happen. The markets will recover. 

Good to know.  Now I can forget about burning my credit card for fuel!