Stock market

mrussel1

bbiggs said:

It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 

Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 

bbiggs

mrussel1 said:

bbiggs said:

It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 

Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 

I’m right there with you. I don’t overreact or get emotional with these wild swings. I’m 38 and am in it for the long haul.  But you don’t think we’ll see the market lose 10%? The high point for the Dow was roughly 27K. We’re already down around 5.5% from the high. I think we’ll see losses far exceed 10% within the next year or two. Good buying opportunity if/when that happens. We shall see. 

mrussel1

bbiggs said:

mrussel1 said:

bbiggs said:

It’s bound to happen anytime now.  I read an interesting article yesterday that used the acronym T.I.N.A.  It stood for “there is no alternative” and it was referring to buying stock.  With the Fed keeping rates low for so long, and investors getting such poor returns on bonds (today’s 10 year treasury yield is 1.58), there is no alternative but to take on riskier investments (i.e. equities), unless you want to sit in cash. This has been a contributor to the continuous stock market rise regardless of corporate earnings and other indicators.  It makes a lot of sense and also makes sense as to why Trump continues to tweet at the Fed to lower rates. By doing so, it could potentially help prop up stock valuations. And a strong (at least in perception) economy likely gets him re-elected. 

Im 46 so I don't mind sitting on equities and ride this out. Hell, Berkshire recently upped their position in back of America to 10%.  I think the banks,  while probably taking a hit in market price,  are well positioned in reserves to do just fine.  Lending will tighten but losses won't approach 10% like last time around. 

I’m right there with you. I don’t overreact or get emotional with these wild swings. I’m 38 and am in it for the long haul.  But you don’t think we’ll see the market lose 10%? The high point for the Dow was roughly 27K. We’re already down around 5.5% from the high. I think we’ll see losses far exceed 10% within the next year or two. Good buying opportunity if/when that happens. We shall see. 

Yes I do.  I could hide in bonds or something,  but the vast majority of my money is institutional,  not in individual stocks.  I do have a fair amount if etrade money wrapped in Google,  but I still believe in them and won't move it. 

mickeyrat

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

brianlux

If things really get bad, we got tons of books and books come from trees which are a form of plant life and plants make good food.  We'll be fine.

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

Halifax2TheMax

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......

standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......

standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....

Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  

bbiggs

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......

standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....

Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  

who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.

Halifax2TheMax

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......

standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....

Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  

who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.

One place that comes to mind is Andrew Yang.  

Amazon doesn't like paying people to do jobs that can be automated.  They like profits so trucking is one way they can get rid of that.  It's coming.

mrussel1

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 

When we do have a recession what is the bubble here?  I can't find one that is so inflated that you know it's popping.

Maybe prime real estate?  

Stock prices?

Halifax2TheMax

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 

When we do have a recession what is the bubble here?  I can't find one that is so inflated that you know it's popping.

Maybe prime real estate?  

Stock prices?

Consumer debt.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

trucker here.  freight volume is down approx 30% from normal trends after seeing a 3rd and 4th quarter surge last year to beat the threatened tariffs.

I have very smart ownership in a regional family owned and operated ltl carrier. cash for most everything...

you want to know how the economy is really doing look at the transportation sector. new truck orders, freight volume and capacity.

looks a little grim this year. slow season stretched farther into the year than whats seen as normal

Yeah man, check freight and Caterpillar.  Those are two very telling signs.

@mickeyrat with amazon taking over pretty much everything do you see that as a tick down in your industry too?

not really. Amazon ships with a lot of carriers still. they also have owner ops hauling their trailers between centers.  all the shit they stock at a fullfillment center gets brought by outside carriers. We used to do switches, drop an empty pick up a loaded, but Amazon wants to go too cheap and our owners said fuck em.

when I hired on 3 years ago in Oct, we had too much freight. we couldnt meet our standards for delivery. so we raised prices to not have to turn freight down and let the customer make that choice. they chose to stay with us......

standard profit margins are low single digits usually. we see 12 13 14% year after year. plus we're growing, slow and steady.

for what we do, Amazon cant touch ltl....

Interesting.  They do say middle America will not have truck drivers anymore in 10 years because of Amazon so I wondered if that was staring already.

When the profits are at 5-8% then the recession is full on so right now you guys are still steady which is good.

Recession should correct in another year, maybe 2?  

who is saying that?  autonomous vehicle will be a problem. but I cant see how Amazon will impact trucking like that.

One place that comes to mind is Andrew Yang.  

Amazon doesn't like paying people to do jobs that can be automated.  They like profits so trucking is one way they can get rid of that.  It's coming.

on their property maybe you lose a few spotter positions. industry wide? long long way off. there are simply too many variables in everyday work for autonomous to take over.  then you have bulk liquids, thats a real feel thing. a computer cant feel....

bbiggs

Halifax2TheMax said:

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.

There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 

bbiggs

mrussel1 said:

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Agreed but I don't think there has been terrible political decisions leading to this upcoming recession,  it's just the cycle.  I do think the tax cuts were terrible because all it did was falsely extend the bull,  while removing a valuable tool to create a softer landing for the economy. 

I agree with you man.  A lot of the Feds decisions absolutely had to be made.  This is the painful reality of what would inevitably come from those decisions though. To say this is all a trump problem (not you) is absolute nonsense. 

Halifax2TheMax

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

bbiggs said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

But I thought that $1.5 trillion tax and rate cuts were going to lead to US dollars being held overseas to flood back home in investments and the wealthy would bless us with their trickle down spending? Suckers.

The potential recession we’re facing is the culmination of a ton of different factors, including a decade’s worth of decisions that have been made.  Not to mention it’s been an unprecedented 10 year run, so naturally this has to happen at some point. Not every thread has to revolve around Trump though. 

Sorry, but Team Trump Treason will own this because of his administration’s total irresponsibleness. What levers are they going to use to pull the world out of this one? 3-5 years of economic pain is coming. Will repubs scream austerity? Of course they will. The 1% got their’s and can ride it out. Nice pass the buck there though.

There are no more levers because rates cannot be lowered any further. That was the lever after 2008 that worked for a decade.  This is not a trump problem. No buck passing at all here, bud. Just trying to have an objective discussion about the markets which I see you can’t do. This is a decade long problem that is resulting from years of printing money and artificially propping up the markets by keeping rates at or near zero. 

Team Trump Treason’s trade policy and tariffs have nothing to do with the here and now? Shattering alliances with NATO and our historical allies has both to do with today. Dems fix the economy with their hands tied, pass it off to repubs who promptly fuck it all up again and both sides get blamed or it’s “decades of policy” coming to fruition. Give me a break. Nice backhand by the way.