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  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    Markets reflect 6 months  what happens in the economy on average.  What was the blip and how many months ago was it when people started screaming that the next recession was coming?
    It was August 19. so 7-1/2 months ago.

    Sounds about right.
  • Saltzy23Saltzy23 Posts: 1,347
    edited March 2020
    Markets reflect 6 months  what happens in the economy on average.  What was the blip and how many months ago was it when people started screaming that the next recession was coming?
    It was August 19. so 7-1/2 months ago.

    Sounds about right.
    We were due for a correction and were like 2' from the ledge.

    The virus pushed us off said ledge.

    The oil market and having a _____ in the Oval Office is like an anvil tied around the feet.

    We fucked.
    Post edited by Kat on
    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    edited March 2020
    Saltzy23 said:
    Markets reflect 6 months  what happens in the economy on average.  What was the blip and how many months ago was it when people started screaming that the next recession was coming?
    It was August 19. so 7-1/2 months ago.

    Sounds about right.
    We were due for a correction and were like 2' from the ledge.

    The virus pushed us off said ledge.

    The oil market and having a _____ in the Oval Office is like an anvil tied around the feet.

    We fucked.
    Corrections are okay.  I don't think we're fucked at all.  I think we will have a two quarter recession at least though.  
    Post edited by Kat on
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    edited March 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    Saltzy23 said:
    Markets reflect 6 months  what happens in the economy on average.  What was the blip and how many months ago was it when people started screaming that the next recession was coming?
    It was August 19. so 7-1/2 months ago.

    Sounds about right.
    We were due for a correction and were like 2' from the ledge.

    The virus pushed us off said ledge.

    The oil market and having a _______ in the Oval Office is like an anvil tied around the feet.

    We fucked.
    Corrections are okay.  I don't think we're fucked at all.  I think we will have a two quarter recession at least though.  
    I hate to say it and I hope it doesn't happen and that I'm completely wrong but I'm thinking 4 to 8 quarters minimum. There's a lot of trickle down impacts folks aren't thinking of. Like AirB&B'ers, Uber/Lyft, all aspects of the casual dining/tourism industry and what that means for folks who rely upon it for a living, etc. There's a lot of people that might have mortgages or car payments based upon AirB&B, Uber/Lyft, tips revenue. It always trickles down, just not the way the repubs sell it.
    Post edited by Kat on
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  • CM189191CM189191 Minneapolis via Chicago Posts: 6,786
    edited March 2020
    Saltzy23 said:
    Markets reflect 6 months  what happens in the economy on average.  What was the blip and how many months ago was it when people started screaming that the next recession was coming?
    It was August 19. so 7-1/2 months ago.

    Sounds about right.
    We were due for a correction and were like 2' from the ledge.

    The virus pushed us off said ledge.

    The oil market and having a ______ in the Oval Office is like an anvil tied around the feet.

    We fucked.
    It's not the correction that scares me, that's inevitable and cyclical. 

    It's the lack of safety net.  All that's left is guillotines, I guess. 
    Post edited by Kat on
    WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020 AT 07/07/2020
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,141
    Trump talks. Futures down. 


    Of fucking course. Nobody with a brain has any confidence in this dope. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    Think about this.  Trump’s tax cuts created a windfall for corporations. Most, if not all, of these corporations used the windfall for stock buybacks.  Carnival (cruise line) did so to the tune of $1B+.  Guess who’s likely going to be asking for a bailout real soon, and may just end up getting one? 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    bbiggs said:
    Think about this.  Trump’s tax cuts created a windfall for corporations. Most, if not all, of these corporations used the windfall for stock buybacks.  Carnival (cruise line) did so to the tune of $1B+.  Guess who’s likely going to be asking for a bailout real soon, and may just end up getting one? 
    I don't know that Trump has the power to do that.  I think any package like that would have to run through the D House.  Dick Durbin was on MSNBC and he was pretty focused on paid sick time being covered by the gov't.  You can see the clear dichotomy between D and R.  Trump is focused on earnings.  Durbin was focused on sick leave. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    21300 and change. Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. Feds gonna go to 0%? How about that deficit?
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  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 28,258
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    Man I hope the American voters really remember this come November..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • Saltzy23Saltzy23 Posts: 1,347
    This is so fucked.
    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    This is a ride I do not want to be on.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    bbiggs said:
    Think about this.  Trump’s tax cuts created a windfall for corporations. Most, if not all, of these corporations used the windfall for stock buybacks.  Carnival (cruise line) did so to the tune of $1B+.  Guess who’s likely going to be asking for a bailout real soon, and may just end up getting one? 
    Isn't Carnival Cruise a foreign company though?  I thought only a small part was in the US?
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,426
    how much of this sell off do you think is human generated trades vs the algorithm trades?

    and can the exchange(s) suspend those trades for x amount of time?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    I am still saying rally tomorrow as today will be a lost cause.

    What is the lowest possible correction at 17k?  I think that is what I figured out before.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mickeyrat said:
    how much of this sell off do you think is human generated trades vs the algorithm trades?

    and can the exchange(s) suspend those trades for x amount of time?
    I don't know, but there are flash crash controls today.  
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    I said 15K , man that's bleak, what am I thinking... Jeeze.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    So it once again seems the repubs inherit a golden opportunity after the dems fix everything, they come back and fuck everything up again. Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Team Trump Treason. Third times a charm I guess but why the fuck do the voters trust repubs with the economy?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

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  • Saltzy23Saltzy23 Posts: 1,347
    There is no bottom until Planet Earth can figure this virus out and start calming people down.  The pendulum needs to stop swinging the direction it is, and at the minimum, start to stabilize.  Events needs to stop being cancelled.  People need to start to feel safe again.

    Until you start to see toilet paper again at Duane Reade, we're porked.

    'I know I was born and I know that I'll die, the in between is mine.'
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    So it once again seems the repubs inherit a golden opportunity after the dems fix everything, they come back and fuck everything up again. Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Team Trump Treason. Third times a charm I guess but why the fuck do the voters trust repubs with the economy?
    I don't know that I agree with this.  I think the tax cuts were irresponsible, but this crash would be happening no matter who the president was today.  I give presidents very little credit or blame for the economy.  
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    So it once again seems the repubs inherit a golden opportunity after the dems fix everything, they come back and fuck everything up again. Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Team Trump Treason. Third times a charm I guess but why the fuck do the voters trust repubs with the economy?
    I don't know that I agree with this.  I think the tax cuts were irresponsible, but this crash would be happening no matter who the president was today.  I give presidents very little credit or blame for the economy.  
    I agree w you too.

    No one could have stopped supply chains from China from stopping.

    Like Saltzy said too, we need to stop the panic.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 36,481
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    So it once again seems the repubs inherit a golden opportunity after the dems fix everything, they come back and fuck everything up again. Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Team Trump Treason. Third times a charm I guess but why the fuck do the voters trust repubs with the economy?
    I don't know that I agree with this.  I think the tax cuts were irresponsible, but this crash would be happening no matter who the president was today.  I give presidents very little credit or blame for the economy.  
    You do, yes, but the Deplorables dont. Nothing but scorn for the last two dems who handed off excellent economies. Government policy has an impact on the economy. It’s complicated and way over my head but I personally have done better, and the economy overall, under dems and I think the facts will bear that out. If you disagree, I’m all ears.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN;

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  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,926
    bbiggs said:
    Think about this.  Trump’s tax cuts created a windfall for corporations. Most, if not all, of these corporations used the windfall for stock buybacks.  Carnival (cruise line) did so to the tune of $1B+.  Guess who’s likely going to be asking for a bailout real soon, and may just end up getting one? 
    Isn't Carnival Cruise a foreign company though?  I thought only a small part was in the US?

    British-American.  You can insert American Airlines, United Airlines, etc. instead of Carnival though.  I'm not saying they won't need to be bailed out (we need air travel), but something is wrong with that picture.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 28,602
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Trading halted again.  Hellllllloooo recession.  Now this does need to be mitigated.  Recessions always hit the working/lower class the hardest.  During the 2008 recession, unemployment for those with a college education never surpassed 5%.  For those without, it was 12%. 
    So it once again seems the repubs inherit a golden opportunity after the dems fix everything, they come back and fuck everything up again. Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Team Trump Treason. Third times a charm I guess but why the fuck do the voters trust repubs with the economy?
    I don't know that I agree with this.  I think the tax cuts were irresponsible, but this crash would be happening no matter who the president was today.  I give presidents very little credit or blame for the economy.  
    You do, yes, but the Deplorables dont. Nothing but scorn for the last two dems who handed off excellent economies. Government policy has an impact on the economy. It’s complicated and way over my head but I personally have done better, and the economy overall, under dems and I think the facts will bear that out. If you disagree, I’m all ears.
    I don't know if I did better or worse simply because as I've aged, I've made more money.  But I do know the 2017 tax cuts have not been good for me.  I'm paying materially more as must actual tax rate.

    I know what you mean about deplorables and what they think.  I'm not disputing that they are idiots.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    Still hovering around -2000
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,426
    for giggles I follow Berkshire Hathaway A and B.  A had a high of 344,xxx at one point in Jan,  I believe. its currently at 270k per share
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 7,640
    mickeyrat said:
    for giggles I follow Berkshire Hathaway A and B.  A had a high of 344,xxx at one point in Jan,  I believe. its currently at 270k per share
    Yup! Same here. I paper traded it last year to fool around. It was very predictable and I banked 70k in 2 months. What a rush (even though it wasn’t real) 
  • mickeyratmickeyrat up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,426
    nicknyr15 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    for giggles I follow Berkshire Hathaway A and B.  A had a high of 344,xxx at one point in Jan,  I believe. its currently at 270k per share
    Yup! Same here. I paper traded it last year to fool around. It was very predictable and I banked 70k in 2 months. What a rush (even though it wasn’t real) 
    So they are sitting a shit ton of ready liquid cash. what do they do? buy it all back at bottom? then rerelease on the upswing?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 38,853
    mickeyrat said:
    for giggles I follow Berkshire Hathaway A and B.  A had a high of 344,xxx at one point in Jan,  I believe. its currently at 270k per share
    I remember during the last crash it was 80ish?

    Man I should have bought!!!
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