Donald Trump

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    www.myspace.com
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,013
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    Ahhhh, but for Rubles, the NRA, the RNC, Cambridge Analytica, putin on the ritz’s oligarchs, their troll farms, three key electoral states and an unwitting, incapable of critical thinking American electorate and here we are. But why? What’s really going on? PTAPE? Russian Team Trump Treason Tower? Money laundering? Deep, deep indebtedness? Both monetary and personal? What’s really going on with Team Trump Treason?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • vaggar99
    vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,431
    so now SOTU will be a gym pep rally
  • Hi!
    Hi! Posts: 3,095
    vaggar99 said:
    so now SOTU will be a gym pep rally
    The biggest and best gym pep rally of all time. Thousands will be denied due to capacity limits. Believe me.

    Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022

  • Hi!
    Hi! Posts: 3,095
    Maybe he can deliver his sotu from the kremlin

    Detroit 2000, Detroit 2003 1-2, Grand Rapids VFC 2004, Philly 2005, Grand Rapids 2006, Detroit 2006, Cleveland 2006, Lollapalooza 2007, Detroit Eddie Solo 2011, Detroit 2014, Chicago 2016 1-2, Chicago 2018 1-2, Ohana Encore 2021 1-2, Chicago Eddie/Earthlings 2022 1-2, Nashville 2022, St. Louis 2022

  • stuckinline
    stuckinline Posts: 3,406
    President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump says federal employees currently furloughed or working without pay due to the partial government shutdown are experiencing a "little bit of pain" for the "future of our country."

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/24/government-shutdown-lara-trump-little-bit-pain-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 31,549
    Clueless idiot is idiocy contagious in this family..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 31,549
    If there’s one word this idiot should never ever utter is TRUTH damn ..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • cincybearcat
    cincybearcat Posts: 16,815
    stuckinline said:
    President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump says federal employees currently furloughed or working without pay due to the partial government shutdown are experiencing a "little bit of pain" for the "future of our country."

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/24/government-shutdown-lara-trump-little-bit-pain-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
    Well if it was for a worthwhile cause it would be temporary pain for longterm gain.  Instead its for a wall....that people will climb over, dig under, go around, go through....
    hippiemom = goodness
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 16,991
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • my2hands
    my2hands Posts: 17,117
    Registered voter for 22 years... never been polled
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,518
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Electoral polls weren't wrong either - it's that people need to be informed on how statistics work. He was given a ~30-35% chance of winning. That is nothing to sneeze at, that didn't mean Clinton was definitely going to win. For some reason this gave people comfort. If Electoral polls had him winning at 0-5% now that would be a comfort.
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 16,991
    edited January 2019
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Electoral polls weren't wrong either - it's that people need to be informed on how statistics work. He was given a ~30-35% chance of winning. That is nothing to sneeze at, that didn't mean Clinton was definitely going to win. For some reason this gave people comfort. If Electoral polls had him winning at 0-5% now that would be a comfort.
    Yeah...well I guess it's all moot now anyway. It's like trying to determine how the Falcons lost that Super Bowl to the Patriots. It's was a crazy Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with the Patriots as five-time Super Bowl champions. Same thing here. A Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with Donald Trump as President. At least for now. Or God help us, maybe until January 2025. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • CM189191
    CM189191 Posts: 6,927

  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,518
    Ledbetterman10 said:

    Yeah...well I guess it's all moot now anyway. It's like trying to determine how the Falcons lost that Super Bowl to the Patriots. It's was a crazy Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with the Patriots as five-time Super Bowl champions. Same thing here. A Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with Donald Trump as President. At least for now. Or God help us, maybe until January 2025. 
    This is totally my mentality. Any hope I had in people being decent went out the window two years ago - expect the worst, hope for the best. Actually, don't hope at all.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Thirty Bills Unpaid said:
    The Juggler said:
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Why would you think they do not matter? What's a better way to gauge the mood of the country? Have a weekly national election? I'd argue they matter now more than ever. Republicans didn't start to part ways with Nixon until his numbers dropped into the low 30's. And approval numbers usually dictate winners and losers in government shutdowns---since more of the country blames Trump, Pelosi has the leverage to  postpone the state of the union. 

    Regarding 2016:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
    Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,518
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,013
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Bentleyspop
    Bentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, Colorado Posts: 11,396
    Another reminder of what kind of "human" was elected president.....


  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,518
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    Whatever - no excuses. Dems should be able to make up that 90k of voters regardless. 
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