***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

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  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    pjhawks wrote:
    interesting read. still think the playoffs are somewhat of a crap shoot and have more to do with being healthy and hot at the right time.

    one stat i'd love to see is has any team every had 3 pitchers in the top 5 in innings pitched win the World Series. I imagine maybe the Braves when they won it but hard to believe anyone else has done it. Hopefully come Semtember Charlie will have some balls to pull Roy and Cliff and not pitch them until their arms fall off.

    I agree that the playoffs are pretty much a crapshoot. As good as the phils have been, I still think their lineup and bullpen make them vulnerable in a playoff series.

    As for the pitchers...I wouldn't count on charlie to do anything that makes sense in regards to innings. See his handling of mike stutes :roll:
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    As for manuel...

    I do agree with him leaving halladay in for the 9th inning last night. The thing that bothered me was that he didn't have anyone up in the bullpen until their were runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. I guess it would have made too much sense to have someone ready in case halladay (who had thrown around 110-115 pitches by then) got in trouble. By the time he had madson and bastardo ready it was too late.
  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,908
    The Fixer wrote:
    As for manuel...

    I do agree with him leaving halladay in for the 9th inning last night. The thing that bothered me was that he didn't have anyone up in the bullpen until their were runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. I guess it would have made too much sense to have someone ready in case halladay (who had thrown around 110-115 pitches by then) got in trouble. By the time he had madson and bastardo ready it was too late.

    agree but once Charlie sent him out for the 9th he had no intention of ever taking him out. he honestly doesn't have the balls to come out and take Halladay out i don't think. but hey if losing 2 out of 3 in the series moves the Giants further from the playoffs i'm all for it. i can't stand that team. and i think the phils are due for a little lull here. the excitement of the trade deadline and the Pence move is over, their basically a lock for the playoffs so i can see some going through the motions over the next few weeks.
  • Phantom Pain
    Phantom Pain Posts: 9,876
    The last time a team won the WS with the best record in Baseball...1986 ?!?!

    :(
    My drinking team has a hockey problem

    The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill



    A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,024
    Phantom Pain wrote:
    The last time a team won the WS with the best record in Baseball...1986 ?!?!

    :(

    Ahh, 2009.
  • Phantom Pain
    Phantom Pain Posts: 9,876
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    Phantom Pain wrote:
    The last time a team won the WS with the best record in Baseball...1986 ?!?!

    :(

    Ahh, 2009.


    NL team maybe ?

    :D
    My drinking team has a hockey problem

    The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill



    A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,024
    Phantom Pain wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    Phantom Pain wrote:
    The last time a team won the WS with the best record in Baseball...1986 ?!?!

    :(

    Ahh, 2009.


    NL team maybe ?

    :D

    Yeah, probably. Yanks clearly has the best record in '98 too.
  • Phantom Pain
    Phantom Pain Posts: 9,876
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    Yeah, probably. Yanks clearly has the best record in '98 too.

    It must be

    I just heard it quick on sports talk
    My drinking team has a hockey problem

    The ONLY thing better than a glass of beer is tea with Miss McGill



    A protuberance of flesh above the waistband of a tight pair of trousers
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,358
    Here are all the teams that have won at least 103 games and how their season ended up. I think 15 of 46 won the World Series. But 6 didn't play any playoff games - so 15 of 40 who played in playoffs won WS.

    Team - Year - Wins Result
    Chicago Cubs - 1906 – 116 Lost WS to Cubs 4-2
    Seattle Mariners - 2001 – 116 Lost ALCS to Yankees 4-1
    New York Yankees - 1998 – 114 Won WS over Padres 4-0
    Cleveland Indians - 1954 – 111 Lost WS to Giants 4-0
    Pittsburgh Pirates - 1909 – 110 Won WS over Tigers 4-3
    New York Yankees - 1927 – 110 Won WS over Pirates 4-0
    New York Yankees - 1961 – 109 Won WS over Reds 4-1
    Baltimore Orioles - 1969 – 109 Lost WS to Mets 4-1
    Baltimore Orioles - 1970 – 108 Won WS over Reds 4-1
    Cincinnati Reds - 1975 – 108 Won WS over Red Sox 4-3
    New York Mets - 1986 – 108 Won WS over Red Sox 4-3
    Chicago Cubs - 1907 – 107 Won WS over Tigers 4-0-1
    Philadelphia Athletics - 1931 – 107 Lost WS to Cardinals 4-3
    New York Yankees - 1932 – 107 Won WS over Cubs 4-0
    New York Giants - 1904 – 106 No World Series
    New York Yankees - 1939 – 106 Won WS over Reds 4-0
    St. Louis Cardinals - 1942 – 106 Won WS over Yankees 4-1
    Atlanta Braves - 1998 – 106 Lost NLCS to Padres 4-2
    New York Giants - 1905 – 105 Won WS over Athletics 4-1
    Boston Red Sox - 1912 – 105 Won WS over Giants 4-3-1
    St. Louis Cardinals - 1943 – 105 Lost WS to Yankees 4-1
    St. Louis Cardinals - 1944 – 105 Won WS over Browns 4-2
    Brooklyn Dodgers - 1953 – 105 Lost WS to Yankees 4-2
    St. Louis Cardinals - 2004 – 105 Lost WS to Red Sox 4-0
    Chicago Cubs - 1909 – 104 2nd place in NL
    Chicago Cubs - 1910 – 104 Lost WS to Athletics 4-1
    Philadelphia Athletics - 1929 – 104 Won WS over Cubs 4-1
    Brooklyn Dodgers - 1942 – 104 2nd place in NL
    Boston Red Sox - 1946 – 104 Lost WS to Cardinals 4-3
    New York Yankees - 1963 – 104 Lost WS to Dodgers 4-0
    Detroit Tigers - 1984 – 104 Won WS over Padres 4-1
    Oakland Athletics - 1988 – 104 Lost WS to Dodgers 4-1
    Atlanta Braves - 1993 – 104 Lost NLCS to Phillies 4-2
    Pittsburgh Pirates - 1902 – 103 No World Series
    New York Giants - 1912 – 103 Lost WS to Red Sox 4-3
    New York Yankees - 1942 – 103 Lost WS to Cardinals 4-1
    New York Yankees - 1954 – 103 2nd place in AL
    San Francisco Giants - 1962 – 103 Lost WS to Yankees 4-3
    Detroit Tigers - 1968 – 103 Won WS over Cardinals 4-3
    New York Yankees - 1980 – 103 Lost ALCS to Royals 3-0
    Oakland Athletics - 1990 – 103 Lost WS to Reds 4-0
    San Francisco Giants - 1993 – 103 2nd place in NL West
    Atlanta Braves - 1999 – 103 Lost WS to Yankees 4-0
    New York Yankees - 2002 – 103 Lost Div Series to Angels 3-1
    Oakland Athletics - 2002 – 103 Lost Div Series to Twins 3-2
    New York Yankees - 2009 – 103 Won WS over Phillies 4-2
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,024
    And what does all of this tell you? Nada. Wait and see fellas, am sure you are getting anxious but you guys obviously have the best shot at it.
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,358
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    And what does all of this tell you? Nada. Wait and see fellas, am sure you are getting anxious but you guys obviously have the best shot at it.

    Yea I think that was the whole point. So many good teams have disappointed in this city. But it happens everywhere - even some great Yankees teams came up short in the end.

    I'm worried Charlie will screw it up. I think he really got outfoxed by Bochy last year. What teams have a big strategic manager advantage over the Phillies? I say strategic because I think Charlie does a great job with day-to-day motivation and team chemistry, which is probably 80% of a baseball manager's job. Of course a lot of these other guys are exactly geniuses either.

    I'd say the Giants (obviously), maybe the Tigers (we wanted Leyland, right?) & Brewers (who's their mgr?). I really don't know much about Kirk Gibson as a strategy guy. He seems to manage their bullpen well.

    I think Charlie stacks up fine strategically against the managers of the Braves (he's awful), Yankees (the binder), Red Sox (he'll prob start Darnell McDonald) & Rangers (the thoroughly confused Ron Washington).
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • Cliffy6745
    Cliffy6745 Posts: 34,024
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    Cliffy6745 wrote:
    And what does all of this tell you? Nada. Wait and see fellas, am sure you are getting anxious but you guys obviously have the best shot at it.

    Yea I think that was the whole point. So many good teams have disappointed in this city. But it happens everywhere - even some great Yankees teams came up short in the end.

    I'm worried Charlie will screw it up. I think he really got outfoxed by Bochy last year. What teams have a big strategic manager advantage over the Phillies? I say strategic because I think Charlie does a great job with day-to-day motivation and team chemistry, which is probably 80% of a baseball manager's job. Of course a lot of these other guys are exactly geniuses either.

    I'd say the Giants (obviously), maybe the Tigers (we wanted Leyland, right?) & Brewers (who's their mgr?). I really don't know much about Kirk Gibson as a strategy guy. He seems to manage their bullpen well.

    I think Charlie stacks up fine strategically against the managers of the Braves (he's awful), Yankees (the binder), Red Sox (he'll prob start Darnell McDonald) & Rangers (the thoroughly confused Ron Washington).

    2003 Yankees come to mind.

    Yeah, you think? I am not of the thought that managers have THAT much of a role in a series so long as they manage their bullpen well. Maybe they have more in the NL but unless they make a terrible pitching decision, I don't feel like they can win or lose a series for you. You could be right though.

    Agreed on your brief analysis of each though. I like Girardi a whole lot more than the majority of Yankees fans. I haven't noticed the binders as much this year, I could just be so used to it that I don't notice though.

    Edit: And from your description I feel like Manuel sounds like a poor mans Torre. He was great at the motivation and day to day stuff but his best work as a manager and their most agressive years strategically I feel like were while Zimmer was there.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,591
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    Since Fixer likes to talk about the Phillies so so records against good teams, I thought everyone would find this interesting:
    Thanks to a pitching staff that is even better than expected -- and expectations were high -- the Philadelphia Phillies are in the midst of an all-time great season. The Phils are currently on pace for 105 wins, which would tie them for ninth on the National League single-season wins list.

    With a 7 1/2-game lead in the NL East, the Phillies are on cruise control and can start looking ahead to the playoffs. While the Phils' offense is merely average (seventh in the NL in runs), their starting pitching, led by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, makes them clear favorites to reach the World Series.

    However, when examining the Phils' 2011 resume, there is one aspect of their performance that raises questions about their postseason chances. To succeed in October, it would stand to reason that you need to be able to beat the best. However, much of the Phillies' gaudy record is based upon the fact that they have beaten up on the worst teams.

    According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies are 36-11 against teams with a winning percentage below .470. That .766 winning percentage against such clubs is by far the best in baseball. The New York Yankees, at 26-10 (.722), have the next best mark against sub.-470 teams. (I chose .470 as the cutoff because that is the winning percentage of teams that finish the season 10 games under .500.) In fact, if that .766 winning percentage holds, it would be the fourth-best mark against sub-.470 teams of the wild card era, just ahead of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who set the record for regular season wins before flaming out in the ALCS.

    But when playing teams on pace to finish at least 10 games over .500 (.530 winning percentage), the Phillies are just 16-16. That's the sixth-best record in baseball against such clubs, and worse than their NL East rivals the Atlanta Braves. Who fares the best against .530-plus teams? That would be the Boston Red Sox, who are 24-15.

    This seems like bad news for the Phillies, because one would think a potential World Series champ would have more success against the league's best. To see if there is any truth to that hypothesis, I went back to see how the last 10 World Series champs fared against the sub-.470 and .530-plus clubs. In theory, the World Series champs should consistently perform well against the good teams, and that would be an indicator of postseason success.

    Past 10 World Series Champions
    YEAR TEAM Win pct against sub-.470 teams Win pct against .530-plus teams
    2010 Giants .714 .426
    2009 Yankees .691 .566
    2008 Phillies .686 .482
    2007 Red Sox .676 .517
    2006 Cardinals .557 .440
    2005 White Sox .742 .510
    2004 Red Sox .698 .567
    2003 Marlins .638 .484
    2002 Angels .743 .451
    2001 D-backs .655 .494

    As it turns out, that's not really the case at all. The World Series champs, with the exception of the 2006 Cardinals, have all beat the snot out of the sub-.470 clubs, and even the Cards fared pretty well. The champs' performance against the .530-plus clubs, however, has varied widely. Just last year, the Giants had the best record in baseball against the sub-.470 teams (35-14), but the 15th-best mark (20-27) versus the .530-plus.

    It's not surprising that the World Series champs would beat up on the bad teams. The ability to do so consistently, in fact, is typically the sign of a strong team. However, you would expect World Series champs to fare well against good squads during the regular season, and that hasn't happened this century.

    In fact, beating up on the weaklings seems to be a better indicator of postseason success. To wit: the 1998 New York Yankees, the team many consider the best in recent history, went 52-12 against sub-.470 teams, which is the best mark of the wild card era.

    If recent history is any guide, the Phils' remarkable record against poor squads says more about their title chances than their pedestrian record against good teams. So if you want nit-pick something regarding their World Series hopes, you'll have to look elsewhere.

    been trying to say this all year...fallen on deaf ears though:


    Past 10 World Series Champions
    YEAR TEAM Win pct against sub-.470 teams Win pct against .530-plus teams
    2010 Giants .714 .426
    2009 Yankees .691 .566
    2008 Phillies .686 .482
    2007 Red Sox .676 .517
    2006 Cardinals .557 .440
    2005 White Sox .742 .510
    2004 Red Sox .698 .567
    2003 Marlins .638 .484
    2002 Angels .743 .451
    2001 D-backs .655 .494
    www.myspace.com
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,358
    As Cliffy said, we are anxious. Some of us are traumatized by seeing the Flyers go from one of the two best teams in the NHL in February (the hockey equivalent of August) to getting destroyed by Boston in the 2nd round this past year. These seasons are really long.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    As Cliffy said, we are anxious. Some of us are traumatized by seeing the Flyers go from one of the two best teams in the NHL in February (the hockey equivalent of August) to getting destroyed by Boston in the 2nd round this past year. These seasons are really long.

    It's a culmination of 34 years of losing. 2008 was great, but for me that was an aberration. I didn't know what to do with myself. I always expect the worst and hope for the best with the philly teams...it's tough not to

    Cautious optimism

    EDIT: and for the record nothing compares to the 2000 flyers. that was by far the worst thing I have witnessed as a philly sports fan
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,591
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    As Cliffy said, we are anxious. Some of us are traumatized by seeing the Flyers go from one of the two best teams in the NHL in February (the hockey equivalent of August) to getting destroyed by Boston in the 2nd round this past year. These seasons are really long.


    i made a deal with myself back in the spring to just enjoy every minute of this season because it's something we may never see again...at this point though, i'm kinda hoping we can hit the fast forward button about 6 weeks. ;)

    '08 really changed the way i look at these teams of ours. i'm not as scared/worried/fretful about the season ending like so many have in the past as i was before.

    confidence levels are high. :mrgreen:
    www.myspace.com
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    fantastic article about the dipshit manager's pitching staff management and 9th inning strategy (or lackthereof). Agree with what was said earlier about manuel's ability to manage the clubhouse, but strategically he is among the worst managers in baseball IMO. I have always felt like the phils win more in spite of him than because of him.

    http://crashburnalley.com/2011/08/17/mo ... enanigans/
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,591
    i think dodger fans felt the same way about lasorda back in the day...
    www.myspace.com
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    The Juggler wrote:
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    As Cliffy said, we are anxious. Some of us are traumatized by seeing the Flyers go from one of the two best teams in the NHL in February (the hockey equivalent of August) to getting destroyed by Boston in the 2nd round this past year. These seasons are really long.


    i made a deal with myself back in the spring to just enjoy every minute of this season because it's something we may never see again...at this point though, i'm kinda hoping we can hit the fast forward button about 6 weeks. ;)

    '08 really changed the way i look at these teams of ours. i'm not as scared/worried/fretful about the season ending like so many have in the past as i was before.

    confidence levels are high. :mrgreen:

    not everyone is as sanguine as the jeagler.
  • The Fixer
    The Fixer Posts: 12,837
    The Fixer wrote:
    The Juggler wrote:
    Johnny Abruzzo wrote:
    As Cliffy said, we are anxious. Some of us are traumatized by seeing the Flyers go from one of the two best teams in the NHL in February (the hockey equivalent of August) to getting destroyed by Boston in the 2nd round this past year. These seasons are really long.


    i made a deal with myself back in the spring to just enjoy every minute of this season because it's something we may never see again...at this point though, i'm kinda hoping we can hit the fast forward button about 6 weeks. ;)

    '08 really changed the way i look at these teams of ours. i'm not as scared/worried/fretful about the season ending like so many have in the past as i was before.

    confidence levels are high. :mrgreen:

    not everyone is as sanguine as the jeagler.

    just remembered you aren't a flyers fan. that actually helps explain why you tend to be more optimistic than the rest of us.
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