***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

The Juggler

i remember reading werth's career average w/risp is .280 or something. and something like .333 from labor day on, this year, when we steamrolled past the braves. we're gonna miss him.


if he ends up leaving i have two words for you: cody and ross (the first and third words there).

Jearlpam0925

The Jeagler wrote:

i remember reading werth's career average w/risp is .280 or something. and something like .333 from labor day on, this year, when we steamrolled past the braves. we're gonna miss him.


if he ends up leaving i have two words for you: cody and ross (the first and third words there).

I wouldn't mind Ross, but I'd rather have Diaz.

Actually, like I said, I'd go Cuddyer.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Best offensive player? That's not saying much for this year. Plus, I'm giving that nod to Chooch.

Dude, the guy hit 100 something with RISP. The dude padded his stats with what will help him get a contract. Teams can't deny avg., homers, and ribbies when signing a guy - even if they're flawed stats. He one of only a few players to stay healthy all year though. Also, I really wouldn't be surprised if they worked something out to bring him back, but I'm not holding my breath.

I think Ibanez and Rollins have bounce back years.

There have been studies on fangraphs.com that show that BA w/RISP is a fluke stat...there's no correlation to a players BA w/RISP from year to year.

Chooch was good this year, but he hits 8th. If I had to guess, I'd say werth's OPS was higher.

Rollins can't be any worse. I think ibanez can and will be worse.

Should be an interesting offseason. I think the chances of werth coming back are less than 5%. Who knows though...amaro has proven he loves overpaying for free agents (and even worse, guys that will be free agents in 2 years. he should be fired for that contract alone)

Dude, I'm a proponent of stats, but don't nerd it up even further. An ENTIRE season of hitting below the mendoza line with RISP is damn well indicative of something. Do me a favor and look up Werth's numbers from June on. I bet they're uuuuuugly. If it wasn't for his blazing start, his numbers are absolutely hollow. If anything, I'll go out on a limb and say the biggest benefactor of this lineup over the last three years is Werth. If he's depended upon to be the 3 hole or 4 hole hitter in a lineup will be disappointed.

Hitting 8th in an NL lineup is the most difficult place to hit - you're given nothing but junk to hit. Chooch's on-base was .400 I think and hit around .300. And all I can ever remember of anything this year, is him coming through in the clutch.

yeah, whatever this is a pretty dumb debate. I know the 8th spot is the most difficult place to hit. You also have to remember that you get walked a lot in the 8th spot, which boosts your OBP. THat said, ruiz did have a good year. I think werth was their best offensive player this year...even with his awful midseason slump.

Anyway, we can move on and try to guess what this team does to fill their existing holes in the OF and bullpen.

Jearlpam0925

Actually, why does Cot's have Cuddyer a free agent this year, but reference has him at 2012. Looks like he's locked up for 2011 at 10.5 mil. I'd go Diaz and Podsednik, I wouldn't mind that.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Jeagler wrote:

i remember reading werth's career average w/risp is .280 or something. and something like .333 from labor day on, this year, when we steamrolled past the braves. we're gonna miss him.


if he ends up leaving i have two words for you: cody and ross (the first and third words there).

I wouldn't mind Ross, but I'd rather have Diaz.

Actually, like I said, I'd go Cuddyer.

eh, they're all pretty much the same to me. ross isn't a great OFer, but he can play CF in a pinch. Gotta think the giants are gonna feel some pressure to bring him back. gun to my head I'd probably pick him first. I'd take endy chavez over francoeur

I just want the WS to end so the hot stove season can get started

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Actually, why does Cot's have Cuddyer a free agent this year, but reference has him at 2012. Looks like he's locked up for 2011 at 10.5 mil. I'd go Diaz and Podsednik, I wouldn't mind that.

probably a team option on cuddyer

you sign 2 OFers and then you've got six guys, including dom brown. victorino, crust, francisco, brown, FA 1, FA 2.

don't see that happening unless they trade someone

neilybabes86

how bout jeter for you guys ?

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Actually, why does Cot's have Cuddyer a free agent this year, but reference has him at 2012. Looks like he's locked up for 2011 at 10.5 mil. I'd go Diaz and Podsednik, I wouldn't mind that.

probably a team option on cuddyer

you sign 2 OFers and then you've got six guys, including dom brown. victorino, crust, francisco, brown, FA 1, FA 2.

don't see that happening unless they trade someone

Thing is I don't see Brown coming up until June 1st.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

Actually, why does Cot's have Cuddyer a free agent this year, but reference has him at 2012. Looks like he's locked up for 2011 at 10.5 mil. I'd go Diaz and Podsednik, I wouldn't mind that.

probably a team option on cuddyer

you sign 2 OFers and then you've got six guys, including dom brown. victorino, crust, francisco, brown, FA 1, FA 2.

don't see that happening unless they trade someone

Thing is I don't see Brown coming up until June 1st.

then you've still got 6 OFs. Ibanez and brown aren't going anywhere, so you'd be looking at a victorino or francisco trade. possible I guess. I just don't see them going into the season with 5 OFs (assuming brown does start at LHV, which I agree with)

The Fixer

neilybabes86 wrote:

how bout jeter for you guys ?

that's the kind of player amaro targets. an aging player that will give the team diminishing returns on his investment. 4 years, 70 million and a no trade clause. I can see amaro making this happen.

The Fixer

keith law chat today

Dan (Atlantic City)Have you seen Justin DeFratus pitch yet? Can he contribute in the Phils' bullpen in 2011?

KlawYes, good arm, should help in the next 18 months.

Dave (San Diego)Can you think of a more bone-headed contract extension in recent memory than Amaro's decision to extend Howard 2 years before he had to at a ridiculously overvalued price? Howards walk % is even declining already....this is going to look even more awful in 3 years and hell still have three years left on the deal.

KlawIf only someone had said that at the time...

Johnny Abruzzo

The Fixer wrote:

Dave (San Diego)Can you think of a more bone-headed contract extension in recent memory than Amaro's decision to extend Howard 2 years before he had to at a ridiculously overvalued price? Howards walk % is even declining already....this is going to look even more awful in 3 years and hell still have three years left on the deal.

KlawIf only someone had said that at the time...

The endless debate...

Seriously, Howard was having a really good year before the ankle injury. He was never the same after that. That said, it's no excuse for him not coming back to form - he had enough time.

Re: Cody Ross... You don't want to overpay for guys who just had a great postseason. See Dave Roberts. That's a classic trap.

The Juggler

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Dave (San Diego)Can you think of a more bone-headed contract extension in recent memory than Amaro's decision to extend Howard 2 years before he had to at a ridiculously overvalued price? Howards walk % is even declining already....this is going to look even more awful in 3 years and hell still have three years left on the deal.

KlawIf only someone had said that at the time...

The endless debate...

Seriously, Howard was having a really good year before the ankle injury. He was never the same after that. That said, it's no excuse for him not coming back to form - he had enough time.

Re: Cody Ross... You don't want to overpay for guys who just had a great postseason. See Dave Roberts. That's a classic trap.

very true.

and dave roberts....the weather guy? i heard he retired...

Gary Carter

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Dave (San Diego)Can you think of a more bone-headed contract extension in recent memory than Amaro's decision to extend Howard 2 years before he had to at a ridiculously overvalued price? Howards walk % is even declining already....this is going to look even more awful in 3 years and hell still have three years left on the deal.

KlawIf only someone had said that at the time...

The endless debate...

Seriously, Howard was having a really good year before the ankle injury. He was never the same after that. That said, it's no excuse for him not coming back to form - he had enough time.

Re: Cody Ross... You don't want to overpay for guys who just had a great postseason. See Dave Roberts. That's a classic trap.

I'd call it the carlos beltran trap

U guys are seriously talking bout endy chavez in the of, that's funny. Guys done shit cept make one of the greatest catches in mets franchise history.

neilybabes86

metsfan wrote:

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

Dave (San Diego)Can you think of a more bone-headed contract extension in recent memory than Amaro's decision to extend Howard 2 years before he had to at a ridiculously overvalued price? Howards walk % is even declining already....this is going to look even more awful in 3 years and hell still have three years left on the deal.

KlawIf only someone had said that at the time...

The endless debate...

Seriously, Howard was having a really good year before the ankle injury. He was never the same after that. That said, it's no excuse for him not coming back to form - he had enough time.

Re: Cody Ross... You don't want to overpay for guys who just had a great postseason. See Dave Roberts. That's a classic trap.

I'd call it the carlos beltran trap

U guys are seriously talking bout endy chavez in the of, that's funny. Guys done shit cept make one of the greatest catches in mets franchise history.

big day for the mets...new gm press conference

Johnny Abruzzo

metsfan wrote:

I'd call it the carlos beltran trap

U guys are seriously talking bout endy chavez in the of, that's funny. Guys done shit cept make one of the greatest catches in mets franchise history.

I think Chavez was here and was terrible. Then he went to, what Montreal or the Mets or something, and absolutely killed us. At the time I don't think I ever hated a ballplayer that much before.

The Juggler

Johnny Abruzzo wrote:

metsfan wrote:

I'd call it the carlos beltran trap

U guys are seriously talking bout endy chavez in the of, that's funny. Guys done shit cept make one of the greatest catches in mets franchise history.

I think Chavez was here and was terrible. Then he went to, what Montreal or the Mets or something, and absolutely killed us. At the time I don't think I ever hated a ballplayer that much before.

i miss the expos

The Fixer

neilybabes86 wrote:

big day for the mets...new gm press conference

alderson is the best signing they've had this decade. I miss omar already

The Fixer

reports from the Arizona Fall League. One good, one not so good. Looking forward to seeing these guys in clearwater in a few months. Phils need some cheap arms in the pen


Justin De Fratus, Philadelphia Phillies: De Fratus absolutely looks like a big league bullpen arm, with a 92-95 mph fastball that has touched 96 once when I've seen him, and good tilt on an 83-85 mph slider that can get strikeouts. A strong pitcher with a good frame who uses his lower half well, De Fratus does a good job finishing his pitches. De Fratus isn't far away from a call-up and looks like he could fill a seventh- or eighth-inning role at the big league level, and from there anything can happen. Then again, he's also in an organization that left Scott Mathieson behind to dominate Triple-A hitters all year.

B.J. Rosenberg, Phillies: Rosenberg appeared in only 20 games this season due to a lat strain, so we can give him a bit of a pass if he's still getting up to speed. In one of his outings I saw, he gave up three homers in four batters, all on poorly located fastballs. He has been working in the 91-92 mph range and occasionally touching 93, but with not a lot of movement on it. His low-80s slider projects to "solid average," and his 80-81 mph changeup has been below average. I'm just not seeing good stuff or command right now.

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

reports from the Arizona Fall League. One good, one not so good. Looking forward to seeing these guys in clearwater in a few months. Phils need some cheap arms in the pen


Justin De Fratus, Philadelphia Phillies: De Fratus absolutely looks like a big league bullpen arm, with a 92-95 mph fastball that has touched 96 once when I've seen him, and good tilt on an 83-85 mph slider that can get strikeouts. A strong pitcher with a good frame who uses his lower half well, De Fratus does a good job finishing his pitches. De Fratus isn't far away from a call-up and looks like he could fill a seventh- or eighth-inning role at the big league level, and from there anything can happen. Then again, he's also in an organization that left Scott Mathieson behind to dominate Triple-A hitters all year.

B.J. Rosenberg, Phillies: Rosenberg appeared in only 20 games this season due to a lat strain, so we can give him a bit of a pass if he's still getting up to speed. In one of his outings I saw, he gave up three homers in four batters, all on poorly located fastballs. He has been working in the 91-92 mph range and occasionally touching 93, but with not a lot of movement on it. His low-80s slider projects to "solid average," and his 80-81 mph changeup has been below average. I'm just not seeing good stuff or command right now.

Didn't I read somewhere that they're most likely going to have De Fratus in the pen next season?

Fixer, you wouldn't happen to frequent Barnaby's? We usually end up there late night after putting on a load and heading back to my buddy's house. Anyway, my point is if you want to get away with anything barring murder that is the place to be.