Juno in Juneau?

godpt3

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/30/121350/137

Brain of mJ

Quite interesting. That would shoot her trustworthiness right in the face.

Piper At The Gates

Very compelling argument.

stupidcorporatewhore

she's a perfect republican:

she's pro life, pro gun, she's under investigation and she's a liar.

LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun

that would be a funny story.

dg1979us

Brain of (M)J wrote:

Quite interesting. That would shoot her trustworthiness right in the face.

Not really, can you imagine how much the pro life crowd would admire her for this, instead of taking the easy way out and having an abortion?

And if Dailykos is wrong about this how stupid do they look?

godpt3

dg1979us wrote:

And if Dailykos is wrong about this how stupid do they look?

About as stupid as the National Enquirer looked after breaking the story on John Edwards' affair and child.



Oops, that one turned out to be true.

dg1979us

godpt3 wrote:

About as stupid as the National Enquirer looked after breaking the story on John Edwards' affair and child.



Oops, that one turned out to be true.

What does that have to do with this? I am not saying it isnt true, but the whole story is based on a few photographs. Ill wait for a little more evidence.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

Not really, can you imagine how much the pro life crowd would admire her for this, instead of taking the easy way out and having an abortion?

But McCain already has the votes of that crowd.

The question is what would it do for independents, and other moderate swing voters?

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

But McCain already has the votes of that crowd.

The question is what would it do for independents, and other moderate swing voters?

Which would be the hardcore conservatives who maybe arent big on McCain, but probably not voting for Obama anyway. Even if this story is true, I can almost promise it is going to be spun that she was protecting her family, and many people will admire that. If it isnt true, then you have people spreading lies about a 16 year old girl. I dont see how anything good can come from this from the democrats side. If I were them I wouldnt touch it and would hope the media doesnt run with it.

NeilJam

dg1979us wrote:

What does that have to do with this? I am not saying it isnt true, but the whole story is based on a few photographs. Ill wait for a little more evidence.

It's not just a "few photographs." This is also based on Gov Palin traveling for nearly half a day from Texas to a hospital near the small town she was governor of in Alaska to have have the baby. All this traveling was done after her water broke. I can understand she may have wanted to have the baby at the hospital of her choice, but that's going overboard.

There must also be some paperwork (not pictures) that shows her daughter was out of school during the time her mother (or she) was pregnant.

LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun

its certainly weird, but i wouldnt call her a lying evil cuntstick over it. its not the same thing as Edwards cheating on his dieing wife, or 'gasp', actually doing something that effects voters in some way.

who gives a shit really?

dg1979us

NeilJam wrote:

It's not just a "few photographs." This is also based on Gov Palin traveling for nearly half a day from Texas to a hospital near the small town she was governor of in Alaska to have have the baby. All this traveling was done after her water broke. I can understand she may have wanted to have the baby at the hospital of her choice, but that's going overboard.

There must also be some paperwork (not pictures) that shows her daughter was out of school during the time her mother (or she) was pregnant.

It is all rumor. She says her water hadnt broke. I am not saying it isnt true, I am saying a few photographs and unsubstantiated rumors about her water breaking in Texas isnt enough to convince me.

And the other thing I am saying, is if this isnt true, how low does this look? This would be on par, if not even worse, than the Bush-Rove smear of McCain and his adopted child.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

Which would be the hardcore conservatives who maybe arent big on McCain, but probably not voting for Obama anyway.

No, I'm talking about Moderates. People who fall right in between party lines. People who may be fiscally conservative but socially liberal or vice versa and so on.

Palin is far right, she's not going to appeal to those voters.

All she brings is some one to sure up McCain's support on the far right. Those people wouldn't have voted Obama, but some may have stayed home or voted for Barr etc. if they weren't sold on McCain. Palin may help a tad with them.

But she isn't bring in moderate swing voters, jilted Hillary fans etc. as is, and a story like this would only further hurt among that demographic. Though again, it really doesn't matter as she has little appeal among that voting bloc anyway.

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

No, I'm talking about Moderates. People who fall right in between party lines. People who may be fiscally conservative but socially liberal or vice versa and so on.

Palin is far right, she's not going to appeal to those voters.

All she brings is some one to sure up McCain's support on the far right. Those people wouldn't have voted Obama, but some may have stayed home or voted for Barr etc. if they weren't sold on McCain. Palin may help a tad with them.

But she isn't bring in moderate swing voters, jilted Hillary fans etc. as is, and a story like this would only further hurt among that demographic. Though again, it really doesn't matter as she has little appeal among that voting bloc anyway.

Exactly. She isnt bringing in moderate swing voters. She could bring in more conservative people who dont like McCain very much. McCain wanted Lieberman, but he knew that would alienate the Christian conservatives even more than they were already. This pick brings in those people. And I would almost venture to guess most of those people would applaud her for not having an abortion and for protecting her family. I honestly think this is a lose-lose situation if the Dems or media press this too much.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

Exactly. She isnt bringing in moderate swing voters. She could bring in more conservative people who dont like McCain very much. McCain wanted Lieberman, but he knew that would alienate the Christian conservatives even more than they were already. This pick brings in those people. And I would almost venture to guess most of those people would applaud her for not having an abortion and for protecting her family. I honestly think this is a lose-lose situation if the Dems or media press this too much.

Yeah, I just think McCain dropped the ball here with choosing Palin. He has to get the moderate swing voters or he has no chance. Building up support among the far right won't get it done. He couldn't go with Lieberman as he'd alienate the right too much, but someone like Romney or Pawlenty would have helped him more IMO.

But the dems/press do need to leave this story alone. Obama was very clear in his speech about wanting to drop personal attacks and partisan rhetoric and the media pursuing this story on the national level would make him look bad--even though he has nothing to do with it. Just because of the perception of the media being biased towards him.

Solat13

dg1979us wrote:

Exactly. She isnt bringing in moderate swing voters. She could bring in more conservative people who dont like McCain very much. McCain wanted Lieberman, but he knew that would alienate the Christian conservatives even more than they were already. This pick brings in those people. And I would almost venture to guess most of those people would applaud her for not having an abortion and for protecting her family. I honestly think this is a lose-lose situation if the Dems or media press this too much.

This is from Scott Rasmussen's daily tracking poll:

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.

And here is the info from John Zogby's latest poll:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

So far independents have liked the pick of Palin more than Obama's pick of Biden. So I guess we need to see how she does over the next couple months to see if she will impact the race.

jhinkle1114

Yeah, it's too early for those polls to mean much. Most people polled probably just went on him choosing a woman, and knew nothing of her beliefs.

We'll see how the polls look in a few weeks after the VP debate etc. when her views are more publicly known.

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

Yeah, I just think McCain dropped the ball here with choosing Palin. He has to get the moderate swing voters or he has no chance. Building up support among the far right won't get it done. He couldn't go with Lieberman as he'd alienate the right too much, but someone like Romney or Pawlenty would have helped him more IMO.

He needs to get the fundamentalists vote that carried Bush. Obviously those people wouldnt vote for Obama, but he needs to be sure they dont stay home. I think that is what this choice was about, and to be honest, might have been the best choice he could have made from a strictly campaign perspective. I dont think he will win, but I do think this helps him.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

He needs to get the fundamentalists vote that carried Bush. Obviously those people wouldnt vote for Obama, but he needs to be sure they dont stay home. I think that is what this choice was about, and to be honest, might have been the best choice he could have made from a strictly campaign perspective. I dont think he will win, but I do think this helps him.

He needs them not to stay home, but he can't win by focusing on them at the expense of the moderate swing voters in places like Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Nevada and all the other swing states that Bush mostly carried.

Even more so as he's going against a great campaigner, unlike Bush who had Gore and Kerry both run horrible campaigns.

He needed someone that could be ok with the far right (face it, most of them will vote for him just to vote against Obama anyway), but he really needed someone to appeal to swing voters fed up with 8 years of Bush. Palin isn't that person.

dg1979us

Solat13 wrote:

This is from Scott Rasmussen's daily tracking poll:

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.

And here is the info from John Zogby's latest poll:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

So far independents have liked the pick of Palin more than Obama's pick of Biden. So I guess we need to see how she does over the next couple months to see if she will impact the race.

I dont put much stock in those types of polls this early. Lets see where they are in a month after she has been on the campaign trail. She wasnt a well known politician before this selection, so I would say most of those polled were at least somewhat ignorant of her.

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

He needs them not to stay home, but he can't win by focusing on them at the expense of the moderate swing voters in places like Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Nevada and all the other swing states that Bush mostly carried.

Even more so as he's going against a great campaigner, unlike Bush who had Gore and Kerry both run horrible campaigns.

He needed someone that could be ok with the far right (face it, most of them will vote for him just to vote against Obama anyway), but he really needed someone to appeal to swing voters fed up with 8 years of Bush. Palin isn't that person.

No she isnt, but if he went another direction he could have further alienated the base the put Bush over the top. We will see I guess, it will be interesting to see peoples opinions of her after she becomes more well known.

Solat13

dg1979us wrote:

I dont put much stock in those types of polls this early. Lets see where they are in a month after she has been on the campaign trail. She wasnt a well known politician before this selection, so I would say most of those polled were at least somewhat ignorant of her.

I agree it's early, but those early polls are much more favorable than what Obama got after announcing Biden.

That and McCain has gotten Obama's speech out of the news cycle for the most part and minimized a lot of its effect.

It will be interesting to see where the race goes from here.

dg1979us

Solat13 wrote:

I agree it's early, but those early polls are much more favorable than what Obama got after announcing Biden.

That and McCain has gotten Obama's speech out of the news cycle for the most part and minimized a lot of its effect.

It will be interesting to see where the race goes from here.

I think McCain made a good move here, and he did certainly get the attention focused back on him. IT will certainly be interesting to see where this leads, I agree. From a purely entertainment value this race is going to be very good I believe.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

No she isnt, but if he went another direction he could have further alienated the base the put Bush over the top. We will see I guess, it will be interesting to see peoples opinions of her after she becomes more well known.

Of course. Like I said he couldn't pick Lieberman. But someone like Romney or Pawlenty or Jindal etc. would have done him better.

I also don't necessarily agree that the far right evangelicals etc. put Bush over the top. It takes a damn terrible Republican candidate to get them to stay home. As much as they may not like the Rep, they're still going to vote just to vote against the Democrat.

Bush one by getting enough of the working class, moderate swing votes, Hispanics in Florida etc. to carry the swing states he needed to eek out victories.

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

Of course. Like I said he couldn't pick Lieberman. But someone like Romney or Pawlenty or Jindal etc. would have done him better.

I also don't necessarily agree that the far right evangelicals etc. put Bush over the top. It takes a damn terrible Republican candidate to get them to stay home. As much as they may not like the Rep, they're still going to vote just to vote against the Democrat.

Bush one by getting enough of the working class, moderate swing votes, Hispanics in Florida etc. to carry the swing states he needed to eek out victories.

Well sure, you certainly cant rely simply on the evangelical vote. But McCain was not a popular choice in many of those circles, and I do think he needed to ensure he got those voters out. McCain himself has a chance at the moderate swing voters, and Palin ensures the far right crowd. I think this might have been the best pick he could have made, obviously depending on how she does on the campaign trail.

Solat13

jhinkle1114 wrote:

Of course. Like I said he couldn't pick Lieberman. But someone like Romney or Pawlenty or Jindal etc. would have done him better.

I have to disagree with you on that for now. I mean if he took Romney or Pawlenty no one would have cared a few hours later. The Obama speech would have dominated the news cycle all weekend.

Now, further down the road you may be right, but as of right now, this pick of Palin was a very good one for McCain.

jhinkle1114

dg1979us wrote:

Well sure, you certainly cant rely simply on the evangelical vote. But McCain was not a popular choice in many of those circles, and I do think he needed to ensure he got those voters out.

I guess where we disagree is that I think the vast majority of the evangelical's would have came out to vote against Obama anyway, so I don't think he really needed that support.

And I don't think McCain will do very well among swing voters, people are too fed up after 8 years of Bush to want more of the same.

Solat13 wrote:

Now, further down the road you may be right, but as of right now, this pick of Palin was a very good one for McCain.

I'm talking further down the road, at where people stand on November 4th after the next couple months of campaigning, debates etc. Immediate impression matters next to nothing in the long term.

dg1979us

jhinkle1114 wrote:

And I don't think McCain will do very well among swing voters, people are too fed up after 8 years of Bush to want more of the same.

I agree with that, and I dont think he wins. But Im not sure a Romney type selection would have helped with that. I think he had to go with the wildcard selection and just see how it plays out. I dont think a predictable ticket would have helped him much, where as this at least has a chance of helping him.

g under p

NeilJam wrote:

It's not just a "few photographs." This is also based on Gov Palin traveling for nearly half a day from Texas to a hospital near the small town she was governor of in Alaska to have have the baby. All this traveling was done after her water broke. I can understand she may have wanted to have the baby at the hospital of her choice, but that's going overboard.

There must also be some paperwork (not pictures) that shows her daughter was out of school during the time her mother (or she) was pregnant.

It appears they do have some trail on her daughter Bristol from the article....

Checking with the Anchorage High School that Bristol Palin attended, reporters were given word that her family had taken Bristol out of school due to contracting infectious mononucleosis. The amount of time Bristol was absent shifts from five to eight months.

Mono can last anywhere from two weeks to three months, but an eight month infection is a freak oddity. Yet it remains a common excuse given by girls in private & Catholic schools around the nation when pregnancy comes into play. Not the first time, not the last time.

My question why would governor Palin feeel the need to hide this pregancy of her daughter? Maybe it's family member that's the father but in either casr gettin to the bottom of this shouldn't be too difficult.

Let's see if any major news agency picks up the story.

Peace

Collin

I'd hate to be a politician.