** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **

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Comments

  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,052
    mickeyrat said:
    has seen the light.....


    that's for real?

    man talk about a 180
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Go Beavers said:
    The Juggler said:
    mrussel1 said:
    gimmesometruth27 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Philly NJ said:
    josevolution said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Yeah! Maybe they'll talk about how odd it is for the owner of the largest social media app to openly endorse Trump, while promoting the same Russian disinformation service that was just charged with pushing disinformation with the intent to sway the election via prominent maga social influencers....perhaps they will talk about how the crime rates in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore have decreased since surging during the final year of the Trump administration. Perhaps they will talk about the actual number of children unaccounted for, which is significantly less than the republican talking point number you cited and has been a problem since the second year of the Trump administration. Yeah, perhaps they will mention all of this at a fucking rock and roll concert, weirdo. 

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072

    https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/kevin-bethel-philadelphia-crime-rate-kensington/

    https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/07/03/nyc-crime-rate-down-2-in-2024-as-murders-shootings-drop-nypd/

    https://www.baltimorepolice.org/news/bpd-sees-dramatic-decrease-multiple-crime-categories-april-2024



    Since Russia is a country under US sanctions, it would be a crime for those podcasters to knowingly receive compensation from these RT cutouts.  I'd love to see them perp walked.  
    especially tim pool. 
    seriously though. he HAD to have known russia was involved.
    Of course he did.  Releasing podcasts saying:

    1. The war started after the pipeline was bombed (which is total bullshit and false)
    2. Ukraine is the enemy of the US

    These are talking points straight from RT and Tass.  But of course the right wing is so fucking stupid, they believe it.  

    I hope the right wingers out here saw this.  You're fucking stupid.  
    Yeah I saw the "Ukraine is the enemy" video today. Just awful. 

    Guarantee you Tucker is bought by them as well. Did you see he had a Nazi on his show saying Churchill was the real enemy of ww2? 

    Maga is so fucking gullible. Sad state of affairs. 
    Tucker gushing about the price of groceries while
    shopping in Russia was bad enough, then saying he’s been “radicalized” by the Biden admin. They won’t recognize it aa propaganda, though. They just say it’s true. 
    Did you guys ever see the Daily Show after Tucker's trip to Russia?  Hilarious.  Stewart shreds him.  Check it out if you haven't.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM2h3KnWAWY
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    mickeyrat said:
    has seen the light.....


    LOL... That's hilarious. Pool is shitting himself 
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,126
    The Juggler said:
    Philly NJ said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Philly NJ said:
    josevolution said:
    Philly NJ said:
    njhaley1 said:
    mickeyrat said:

    Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president

    It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
    Get more news
    on






    Sept. 4, 2024, 6:17 PM EDT
    By Kelly O'Donnell, Gabe Gutierrez and Megan Lebowitz

    WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.

    Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.


    continues.....


    Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.

    I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact. 


    Liz Cheney
    ·
    Aug 11, 2020
    Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.
    Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation? 
    No, but I will be at both Philly shows.
    Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.
    Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.
    Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally.  Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing.  But they won't.  They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden. 
    Yeah! Maybe they'll talk about how odd it is for the owner of the largest social media app to openly endorse Trump, while promoting the same Russian disinformation service that was just charged with pushing disinformation with the intent to sway the election via prominent maga social influencers....perhaps they will talk about how the crime rates in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore have decreased since surging during the final year of the Trump administration. Perhaps they will talk about the actual number of children unaccounted for, which is significantly less than the republican talking point number you cited and has been a problem since the second year of the Trump administration. Yeah, perhaps they will mention all of this at a fucking rock and roll concert, weirdo. 

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072

    https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/kevin-bethel-philadelphia-crime-rate-kensington/

    https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/07/03/nyc-crime-rate-down-2-in-2024-as-murders-shootings-drop-nypd/

    https://www.baltimorepolice.org/news/bpd-sees-dramatic-decrease-multiple-crime-categories-april-2024



    POOTWH naming Elongitaint a special policy advisor in his administration should give everyone pause. Unless you’re an evenbro, I suppose.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,126
    mickeyrat said:
    has seen the light.....


    Anyone want to guess where Roger Dodger Stoned’s hand might be? NTTIAWWT.


    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,126

    Fucker Carlson is kompromatted. You know there are tapes from his visit to Moscow. Just like POOTWH. Putin on the ritz is no dummy.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,373
    this guy popped up on my threads feed. one to follow and watch....

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • pjl44
    pjl44 Posts: 10,525
    Uh oh. Bad news for the Tik Tok CEO, right? Should be in handcuffs by Monday?

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/business/chase-tiktok-trend/index.html
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,373
    https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/C_jWRjhsmfp/?xmt=AQGzTZmoQzHEQExheCdCphvRzYoCeDcZDgChMpQF8rFO3g
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,373
    gift article.....


     Kamala Harris ran her office like a prosecutor. Not everyone liked that.
    By Dan Diamond and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
    September 06, 2024 at 6:00 ET
    On the day after President Joe Biden decided to end his reelection bid in July, more than 300 former staffers for Vice President Kamala Harris publicly endorsed her candidacy — a flurry of alumni support with little precedent in this already unusual campaign.
    “We were able to witness her leadership firsthand,” the former staffers wrote in a letter, attesting to Harris’s behavior on and off camera. “She is an extraordinary leader of great character.”
    The rapidly assembled letter was a spontaneous outpouring of affection for Harris, said Rachel Palermo, who worked for Harris for three years in the vice president’s office and coordinated the effort.
    But in interviews, former staff who signed the letter acknowledged it also addressed one of Harris’s perceived weaknesses as a candidate and elected official: her demanding management style. People who have worked for Harris say her interactions with staff can resemble a prosecutor prying details from a witness, asking pointed questions about everything from her schedule to policy briefings. And her cautious approach to big decisions has frustrated deputies rather than inspire them.

    continues.....

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,373


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • EdsonNascimento
    EdsonNascimento Posts: 5,531
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Sorry. The world doesn't work the way you tell it to.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    edited September 2024
    Interested in seeing what things look like a week or two from now after the debate. Hasn't been much movement lately. 




    Post edited by The Juggler on
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Gern Blansten said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Yeah and it seems like the other models are in line with 538 as well---the Hill, Economist, etc....

    It's a coinflip no matter what though. 


    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Gern Blansten said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,126
    mrussel1 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
    And that turnout is going to be suppressed.
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    EdsonNascimento said:
    Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?

    (I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
    Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?

    Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model. 

    It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
    Who cares.. it's just probability modeling.  I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation.  They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection.  That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me.  I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout.  It's all about that. 
    And that turnout is going to be suppressed.
    I certainly worry about that in GA.  
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