State of elections since 2020

mace1229

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Yeah I think the GOP will control the house but this is no red tsunami. That's a victory given inflation, Biden's approval rating, etc.

It's actually gotta be considered one of the best midterms for a first term president in a reeeeeaaaaaally long time. 

lolmaga

I would agree. First midterms typically don't go that well for most presidents. This has turned out better than most for the Dems.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Crazy stuff....I woke up at 4am and checked results. Glad to see Fetterman beat that piece of tRumpshit Oz.

Also nice to see AZ results thus far...hopefully the Dem advantage holds tonight when Maricopa finalizes.

Sucks that Warnock isn't the clear winner but he has the clear advantage in the runoff. Plus more abortions will probably pop up for Walker in the interim.

There is hope for dems...GenZ clearly stepped up to the plate

Dems could still lose both house and senate, and the House is likely going to be decided by NYS due to poor Dem turnout. 2 key factors, not sure how much reporting there is on this, but it’s probably going to make mccarthy speaker.


1 - Republican judge overruled Dems in drawing new maps, up to five seats could be lost by Dems in NY. FWIW, OHIO has very similar laws to NY (state constitution calls for independent commission to draw maps), but OH legislature said FU to the courts and drew a heavily gerrymandered map. So NY plays by the rules, OH does not and GOP gets the House as a result 



2 - Covid Covid Covid, believe it or not. NY strong regulation on Covid laws pissed off…the teachers, a very strong, usually very blue turnout. There was definitely a red wave in NY in addition to the pro GOP congress maps. Cuomo won last time by almost 25, Hochul won by six.

If GOP wins both NV and GA, doesn't that make it 50/50?  Am I counting wrong here?  If it's split, then the D's fundamentally control through the VP.  

Dems Down 22,000 votes in NV with 72% reporting and if Libertarian voters turn out for Walker, he wins GA runoff, GOP would flip two seats and conceivably take the senate.

GA Libertarians didn't go red last time....

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Crazy stuff....I woke up at 4am and checked results. Glad to see Fetterman beat that piece of tRumpshit Oz.

Also nice to see AZ results thus far...hopefully the Dem advantage holds tonight when Maricopa finalizes.

Sucks that Warnock isn't the clear winner but he has the clear advantage in the runoff. Plus more abortions will probably pop up for Walker in the interim.

There is hope for dems...GenZ clearly stepped up to the plate

Dems could still lose both house and senate, and the House is likely going to be decided by NYS due to poor Dem turnout. 2 key factors, not sure how much reporting there is on this, but it’s probably going to make mccarthy speaker.


1 - Republican judge overruled Dems in drawing new maps, up to five seats could be lost by Dems in NY. FWIW, OHIO has very similar laws to NY (state constitution calls for independent commission to draw maps), but OH legislature said FU to the courts and drew a heavily gerrymandered map. So NY plays by the rules, OH does not and GOP gets the House as a result 



2 - Covid Covid Covid, believe it or not. NY strong regulation on Covid laws pissed off…the teachers, a very strong, usually very blue turnout. There was definitely a red wave in NY in addition to the pro GOP congress maps. Cuomo won last time by almost 25, Hochul won by six.

If GOP wins both NV and GA, doesn't that make it 50/50?  Am I counting wrong here?  If it's split, then the D's fundamentally control through the VP.  

Dems Down 22,000 votes in NV with 72% reporting and if Libertarian voters turn out for Walker, he wins GA runoff, GOP would flip two seats and conceivably take the senate.

Yeah you're right.  D needs to win the GA seat to ensure 50/50, and therefore control.  

I wouldn't be so sure the libertarian vote is going to smooth over to Walker.  

Lerxst1992

mickeyrat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Crazy stuff....I woke up at 4am and checked results. Glad to see Fetterman beat that piece of tRumpshit Oz.

Also nice to see AZ results thus far...hopefully the Dem advantage holds tonight when Maricopa finalizes.

Sucks that Warnock isn't the clear winner but he has the clear advantage in the runoff. Plus more abortions will probably pop up for Walker in the interim.

There is hope for dems...GenZ clearly stepped up to the plate

Dems could still lose both house and senate, and the House is likely going to be decided by NYS due to poor Dem turnout. 2 key factors, not sure how much reporting there is on this, but it’s probably going to make mccarthy speaker.


1 - Republican judge overruled Dems in drawing new maps, up to five seats could be lost by Dems in NY. FWIW, OHIO has very similar laws to NY (state constitution calls for independent commission to draw maps), but OH legislature said FU to the courts and drew a heavily gerrymandered map. So NY plays by the rules, OH does not and GOP gets the House as a result 



2 - Covid Covid Covid, believe it or not. NY strong regulation on Covid laws pissed off…the teachers, a very strong, usually very blue turnout. There was definitely a red wave in NY in addition to the pro GOP congress maps. Cuomo won last time by almost 25, Hochul won by six.

ohio isnt independent commission. giv, lt gov, majority leader of both chambers and minority leader of both chambers. thats the commission.

now the minority leaders MUST agree with map as drawn. if not map sticks for 4 yrs.

Both states passed anti gerrymandering referendums recently, think the spirit of what I said is true, NYS assembly listened to a Republican judge and redrew districts that favor the GOP in a blue state, while OH ignored the courts and drew a GOP map in a red state. Both cases, anti gerrymandering resolution passed by voters, both cases, pro GOP maps. And NYS looks like it will decide the majority in the house. 

NY could have played the same game as OH and sued the constitutionality of the referendum in federal court, which is what allowed OH to use what its state court said was illegal maps.

mrussel1

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Crazy stuff....I woke up at 4am and checked results. Glad to see Fetterman beat that piece of tRumpshit Oz.

Also nice to see AZ results thus far...hopefully the Dem advantage holds tonight when Maricopa finalizes.

Sucks that Warnock isn't the clear winner but he has the clear advantage in the runoff. Plus more abortions will probably pop up for Walker in the interim.

There is hope for dems...GenZ clearly stepped up to the plate

Dems could still lose both house and senate, and the House is likely going to be decided by NYS due to poor Dem turnout. 2 key factors, not sure how much reporting there is on this, but it’s probably going to make mccarthy speaker.


1 - Republican judge overruled Dems in drawing new maps, up to five seats could be lost by Dems in NY. FWIW, OHIO has very similar laws to NY (state constitution calls for independent commission to draw maps), but OH legislature said FU to the courts and drew a heavily gerrymandered map. So NY plays by the rules, OH does not and GOP gets the House as a result 



2 - Covid Covid Covid, believe it or not. NY strong regulation on Covid laws pissed off…the teachers, a very strong, usually very blue turnout. There was definitely a red wave in NY in addition to the pro GOP congress maps. Cuomo won last time by almost 25, Hochul won by six.

If GOP wins both NV and GA, doesn't that make it 50/50?  Am I counting wrong here?  If it's split, then the D's fundamentally control through the VP.  

Dems Down 22,000 votes in NV with 72% reporting and if Libertarian voters turn out for Walker, he wins GA runoff, GOP would flip two seats and conceivably take the senate.

GA Libertarians didn't go red last time....

True to yours and russ’ point, but personally if Warnock needs to pull off another runoff miracle in a red lean state by preventing libertarians from voting GOP, it doesn’t seem like he would be favored. Not sure if the anti trump fever that helped him do it in 2000 will be there again.

Gern Blansten

yeah but....Walker

OnWis97

The GQP really did miss a layup yesterday. Mid-term elections are usually good for the opposition party...add to that Biden's unpopularity and the current state of the economy, a red wave would have made sense.

But I think the GQP bought too much into their own tweets. They really thought the key issues were "wokeness," "forced gender-reassignment surgeries on five-year olds," and Covid lockdowns. I think The first two are just things they amplified to each other. And I don't think people were as unhappy about keeping kids at home during covid as they thought (or at the very least, were understanding that it was a very difficult time).

Turns out, the biggest issue was probably Roe being overturned. But Jan 6 may have been key as well. Election deniers did fairly poorly overall and people may be tiring of all the whining that these "alpha males" do.

For so long, Moscow Mitch's manipulation of the Supreme Court was handsomely rewarded and the conspiracy theories and legitimate coup attempt went unpunished. I feel like yesterday, some of that stuff finally came back to haunt them. And I never thought I'd say this, but I think all but the 250 people that follow him all over the country are tired of Trump and his whining. I think he's done. DeSantis is just as willing to be the head of a dictatorship, but maybe the cult factor will die down. And if nothing else I don't think he's indebted to Russia...

brianlux

OnWis97 said:

The GQP really did miss a layup yesterday. Mid-term elections are usually good for the opposition party...add to that Biden's unpopularity and the current state of the economy, a red wave would have made sense.

But I think the GQP bought too much into their own tweets. They really thought the key issues were "wokeness," "forced gender-reassignment surgeries on five-year olds," and Covid lockdowns. I think The first two are just things they amplified to each other. And I don't think people were as unhappy about keeping kids at home during covid as they thought (or at the very least, were understanding that it was a very difficult time).

Turns out, the biggest issue was probably Roe being overturned. But Jan 6 may have been key as well. Election deniers did fairly poorly overall and people may be tiring of all the whining that these "alpha males" do.

For so long, Moscow Mitch's manipulation of the Supreme Court was handsomely rewarded and the conspiracy theories and legitimate coup attempt went unpunished. I feel like yesterday, some of that stuff finally came back to haunt them. And I never thought I'd say this, but I think all but the 250 people that follow him all over the country are tired of Trump and his whining. I think he's done. DeSantis is just as willing to be the head of a dictatorship, but maybe the cult factor will die down. And if nothing else I don't think he's indebted to Russia...

Good summation here, thanks OnWis.

The control of congress is still up in the air but at least this "red wave" is not coming together like the MAGAs had hope for. 
Feeling guardedly confident today.

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

but in two years a few million more GenZ will be voting (and boomers dying)....and they don't vote red

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

She went full MAGA because that's how you win the primary.  She didn't really tack to the center like you would have expected, but she's pretty enough to overcome that strategy.  And that's the truth, that's why it's even close, because she is prettier than Hobbs.  I know that sounds terrible, but I think it's true.  

Center right candidates that don't seem crazy will always be a force for independents.  

josevolution

As it looks now the Democrats have to much ground to make up to keep control no? 

Go Beavers

OnWis97 said:

The GQP really did miss a layup yesterday. Mid-term elections are usually good for the opposition party...add to that Biden's unpopularity and the current state of the economy, a red wave would have made sense.

But I think the GQP bought too much into their own tweets. They really thought the key issues were "wokeness," "forced gender-reassignment surgeries on five-year olds," and Covid lockdowns. I think The first two are just things they amplified to each other. And I don't think people were as unhappy about keeping kids at home during covid as they thought (or at the very least, were understanding that it was a very difficult time).

Turns out, the biggest issue was probably Roe being overturned. But Jan 6 may have been key as well. Election deniers did fairly poorly overall and people may be tiring of all the whining that these "alpha males" do.

For so long, Moscow Mitch's manipulation of the Supreme Court was handsomely rewarded and the conspiracy theories and legitimate coup attempt went unpunished. I feel like yesterday, some of that stuff finally came back to haunt them. And I never thought I'd say this, but I think all but the 250 people that follow him all over the country are tired of Trump and his whining. I think he's done. DeSantis is just as willing to be the head of a dictatorship, but maybe the cult factor will die down. And if nothing else I don't think he's indebted to Russia...

I think Trump’s only gone when there’s broad rejection from republicans, and I don’t see that happening after 6+ years of maintaining all the logical fallacies and mental justifications to support him. The psychology says to stay committed to that way of thinking rather than acknowledging they were wrong. 

It would be different if Trump sat back and helped build homes for Habitat for Humanity, but he’s going to maintain that he’s leader of the party until he dies. 

Gern Blansten

josevolution said:

As it looks now the Democrats have to much ground to make up to keep control no? 

I don't think so....but we should know tonight

Poncier

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

but in two years a few million more GenZ will be voting (and boomers dying)....and they don't vote red

They just don't vote. 

brianlux

Poncier said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

but in two years a few million more GenZ will be voting (and boomers dying)....and they don't vote red

They just don't vote. 

No? But you did wink, so I assume you're kidding.

I heard they were very helpful in showing up for this election.  We need to encourage Gen Z  kids.  They are now our best hope, just as I said Gen x were 20 years ago or my mostly failed boomer generation was 100 years ago (although we did some things right). 

mickeyrat

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Crazy stuff....I woke up at 4am and checked results. Glad to see Fetterman beat that piece of tRumpshit Oz.

Also nice to see AZ results thus far...hopefully the Dem advantage holds tonight when Maricopa finalizes.

Sucks that Warnock isn't the clear winner but he has the clear advantage in the runoff. Plus more abortions will probably pop up for Walker in the interim.

There is hope for dems...GenZ clearly stepped up to the plate

Dems could still lose both house and senate, and the House is likely going to be decided by NYS due to poor Dem turnout. 2 key factors, not sure how much reporting there is on this, but it’s probably going to make mccarthy speaker.


1 - Republican judge overruled Dems in drawing new maps, up to five seats could be lost by Dems in NY. FWIW, OHIO has very similar laws to NY (state constitution calls for independent commission to draw maps), but OH legislature said FU to the courts and drew a heavily gerrymandered map. So NY plays by the rules, OH does not and GOP gets the House as a result 



2 - Covid Covid Covid, believe it or not. NY strong regulation on Covid laws pissed off…the teachers, a very strong, usually very blue turnout. There was definitely a red wave in NY in addition to the pro GOP congress maps. Cuomo won last time by almost 25, Hochul won by six.

If GOP wins both NV and GA, doesn't that make it 50/50?  Am I counting wrong here?  If it's split, then the D's fundamentally control through the VP.  

Dems Down 22,000 votes in NV with 72% reporting and if Libertarian voters turn out for Walker, he wins GA runoff, GOP would flip two seats and conceivably take the senate.

GA Libertarians didn't go red last time....

True to yours and russ’ point, but personally if Warnock needs to pull off another runoff miracle in a red lean state by preventing libertarians from voting GOP, it doesn’t seem like he would be favored. Not sure if the anti trump fever that helped him do it in 2000 will be there again.

he'll have Abrams focused on turnout for him. like last time.

Gern Blansten

brianlux said:

Poncier said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

but in two years a few million more GenZ will be voting (and boomers dying)....and they don't vote red

They just don't vote. 

No? But you did wink, so I assume you're kidding.

I heard they were very helpful in showing up for this election.  We need to encourage Gen Z  kids.  They are now our best hope, just as I said Gen x were 20 years ago or my mostly failed boomer generation was 100 years ago (although we did some things right). 

As a parent of GenZ I have been pleasantly surprised at how left leaning most of these kids are. Going off local acquaintances and my FB feed it amazes me how the children of rabid red meat GOP totally reject that line of thinking. Not in all cases but most for sure.

Poncier

brianlux said:

Poncier said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

According to the WashPo, their analysis of what is outstanding to be counted gives Masto the slight edge in winning.  So that's nice.  

By contrast, they give Lake the slight edge in AZ in the Gov race.  She's an interesting cat.  She was (and probably still is) a Democrat.  She's just a shameless TV opportunist.  

But as a former democrat, why did she have to go full court election denial in a swing state that’s supposedly trending blue? Since FL OH and IA are all gone goodbye  for Dems , not sure where the dems can pick up states in the future for electoral collage and senate. Extremism still seems to work for the GOP, even in an election where Dems outperform expectations.


In those three former swing states, the Dems are gone, history, outta here, join the cult or be gone,  while in the new blue states, GA, AZ , NV WI, and even VA the GOP apparently are still a force to be reckoned with. Does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling about senate and presidency in one year and 362 days.

but in two years a few million more GenZ will be voting (and boomers dying)....and they don't vote red

They just don't vote. 

No? But you did wink, so I assume you're kidding.

I heard they were very helpful in showing up for this election.  We need to encourage Gen Z  kids.  They are now our best hope, just as I said Gen x were 20 years ago or my mostly failed boomer generation was 100 years ago (although we did some things right). 

Only half kidding.
Historically as a collective, young folks just don't turn out to vote in big numbers. This cycle their numbers seemed to improve, probably due to the Roe decision, but we'll see if that continues in future years.