Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
1. This is good, not bad for Biden. 2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument. 3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
1. This is good, not bad for Biden. 2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument. 3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
1. This is good, not bad for Biden. 2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument. 3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.
I think people know who Biden is. I think he did well in the Sanders (1 on 1) debate when not forced to talk over 10 people and those 10 people were all targeting him. I'm not super concerned about that.
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
1. This is good, not bad for Biden. 2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument. 3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.
I think people know who Biden is. I think he did well in the Sanders (1 on 1) debate when not forced to talk over 10 people and those 10 people were all targeting him. I'm not super concerned about that.
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
I think you missed some of his key points:
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much - Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent - Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
1. This is good, not bad for Biden. 2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument. 3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
You seem to feel that Biden being out there more - speeches, debating, etc. - will make people feel better about him. The author (and I, to a certain extent) disagrees with that.
I think people know who Biden is. I think he did well in the Sanders (1 on 1) debate when not forced to talk over 10 people and those 10 people were all targeting him. I'm not super concerned about that.
Agreed...he will do just fine. I think some people will be surprised at how he goes after tRump when the time is right.
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people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
Do you think those details would stop Trump from using it in a campaign? It's a fact that Trump had this issue in his security briefings as early as January, and he downplayed it the entire time, until late March. Perhaps NY doesn't get a chance to F up if the CEO of the country isn't avoiding the issue.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
Do you think those details would stop Trump from using it in a campaign? It's a fact that Trump had this issue in his security briefings as early as January, and he downplayed it the entire time, until late March. Perhaps NY doesn't get a chance to F up if the CEO of the country isn't avoiding the issue.
If Clinton had won the election, where are you estimating we'd be as a country on cases/deaths today? Currently we are at 1.5 million/93k.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
Do you think those details would stop Trump from using it in a campaign? It's a fact that Trump had this issue in his security briefings as early as January, and he downplayed it the entire time, until late March. Perhaps NY doesn't get a chance to F up if the CEO of the country isn't avoiding the issue.
If Clinton had won the election, where are you estimating we'd be as a country on cases/deaths today? Currently we are at 1.5 million/93k.
I was actually considering starting a thread on that. One clear difference would be fewer conspiracy theories. A third of the population believes this entire thing is a conspiracy against Trump. I still think just as many people would be upset about stay-at-home orders, maybe even more with a Democrat in the White House, but I think you'd have fewer people just flaunting their non-compliance at grocery stores, etc. These things might be a wash.
I think the two biggest differences would be 1) An earlier response and a president concerned with more than how it impacts the re-election and 2) fewer people existing in the image of an ignorant, angry, moron doing things like refusing to wear masks, etc. What's it mean in numbers? Hard to say. Maybe knocks 'em down by 20%? A third?
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people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
Do you think those details would stop Trump from using it in a campaign? It's a fact that Trump had this issue in his security briefings as early as January, and he downplayed it the entire time, until late March. Perhaps NY doesn't get a chance to F up if the CEO of the country isn't avoiding the issue.
If Clinton had won the election, where are you estimating we'd be as a country on cases/deaths today? Currently we are at 1.5 million/93k.
well, considering she is a democrat that believes in science, i can guarantee you she would have locked us down when the experts first recommended it. she would not have had states kiss her ass to get funding, PPE and ventilators. she would not have demonized china for attacking the world via virus. she would not have cut funding to the who.
i could go on, but nothing i present will persuade you that hillary would have been infinitely better on this than your boy trump.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.- Hemingway
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
That the last 10-11 posts were posted is astounding. With all that we know. With all that we've witnessed. With all of the denial and lies. That the question has to even be asked and a defense mounted. "Both sides are the same." Good fucking god. From someone "sitting this one out," no less.
And I'll add another two, the Treasury Department wouldn't be sitting on half a trillion dollars of Congressionally passed relief aid nor would Hillary be threatening states with withholding federal dollars because of mail in ballot applications.
This pandemic has only reinforced for me one glaringly obvious fact. Coming to any future unified approach in this country is nothing but a pipe dream. R vs D all the way...please make it stop.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
The Dems should just play tape after tape of every dumb thing Trump said during this. just play it over and over.
"we will be down to zero cases soon" "I take no responsibility' "anyone who wants a test can get a test" and of course Fauci covering his face and shaking is head and so many more
just play the tapes and say nothing should be the Dems strategy. let his own words hang himself
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
PJ announced postponed tours on April 8th and 9th. On April 10th, the US had 486,000 cases and 18,000 deaths. Travel ban to/from China, with exemptions, went into effect on February 2nd. Travel from other nearby Asian nations wasn't banned nor restricted.
people know who trump is and a significant majority are rejecting him.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
Remember one of his key pitches in 16 was "What have you got to lose?" Now we know.. 100k lives and millions of jobs.
If Democrats try to lay the totality of the coronavirus pandemic at his feet, voters will see through that
Trump will be playing hardball. I'm not saying the Biden campaign does it, but a third party should absolutely hammer him on this.
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
Man, I don't see any of that. I think it will be even clearer as the months go on that this has been a systemic failure. Every day we're peeling back the onion on how New York fucked up. Trump has done a poor job, but I don't know what that incremental toll really is. There is no way it wasn't going to hit us hard.
Do you think those details would stop Trump from using it in a campaign? It's a fact that Trump had this issue in his security briefings as early as January, and he downplayed it the entire time, until late March. Perhaps NY doesn't get a chance to F up if the CEO of the country isn't avoiding the issue.
If Clinton had won the election, where are you estimating we'd be as a country on cases/deaths today? Currently we are at 1.5 million/93k.
I was actually considering starting a thread on that. One clear difference would be fewer conspiracy theories. A third of the population believes this entire thing is a conspiracy against Trump. I still think just as many people would be upset about stay-at-home orders, maybe even more with a Democrat in the White House, but I think you'd have fewer people just flaunting their non-compliance at grocery stores, etc. These things might be a wash.
I think the two biggest differences would be 1) An earlier response and a president concerned with more than how it impacts the re-election and 2) fewer people existing in the image of an ignorant, angry, moron doing things like refusing to wear masks, etc. What's it mean in numbers? Hard to say. Maybe knocks 'em down by 20%? A third?
You're a touch higher than I am, but we're close. I feel like 10-20% to date. I still think guidance would have been flawed, but there would have been something to go on.
You're so right about the bickering and conspiracy theories. It's fucking insane that this many people have a strong opinion about a malaria drug.
This pandemic has only reinforced for me one glaringly obvious fact. Coming to any future unified approach in this country is nothing but a pipe dream. R vs D all the way...please make it stop.
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
Counterfactuals can be a good Rorschach test. Is the person asking hard questions and scrutinizing? Or are they turning partisan politicians into superheroes?
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
None of us were in the national security briefings in January. None of us refused the tests from the WHO and Germany. None of us pulled our CDC reps out of China last year. So it really doesn't matter when we took it seriously. That's not the bar for the president.
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
Bullshit. This thread is proof that you are absolutely wrong.
Edit: thought I was in the coronavirus thread. Go there to find out how wrong you are.
Post edited by dignin on
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,359
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Biden won Texas. I think there’s distain down there for him because of his disrespect to the Bush family. Hillary, despite being maybe the most loathed Democrat ever in the eyes of Republicans, garnered like 43% of the vote in Texas in ‘16. Biden definitely appeals to Trump-hating Republicans...and I think Texas might have more of them than any state.
It's curtains if he wins Texas. Probably not happening but I would bet it goes blue in '24.
These numbers are all real good so far. The Pennsylvania, AZ and Michigan numbers, in particular, are real nice to see as Trump won them in '16. Looking like the '18 midterm numbers thus far...
I don't know why people try to re-write history of how the coronavirus started and how they would have reacted. No one here took it seriously before PJ cancelled their tour. Which means no democrat was taking it seriously at the time or their would be records of it in this forum. Did Trump start the travel bans before or after the tour was cancelled? I do not know offhand.
Bullshit. This thread is proof that you are absolutely wrong.
Edit: thought I was in the coronavirus thread. Go there to find out how wrong you are.
I went to go find how wrong i was! went to dairy queen instead.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,359
Battleground states RCP avg: AZ...Biden +4 Fl...Biden +3.3 MI....Biden +5.5 NV....Biden +4 NC.....Trump +1 OH.....not enough polling yet PA....Biden up 6.5 TX.......Trump up 2.5 (wow!) VA.....Biden up 9.7 WI....Bide up 2.7
So far so good, especially considering the Tara Reade story/non story and Trump's barrage of negative nonsense. Hasn't really knocked Biden off his lead.
Here's a contrary take. Not saying I buy into all of it, but it's interesting. If I had to place a bet today, I'd still put it on Biden.
I don't quite follow the argument. He's basically saying.. yeah Biden is doing well now because he's surging. And he's surging because D's are coming around to him. Okay but D's coming around is not a short term surge, that's a step change. Now maybe he is surging. And maybe for random reasons but also because people have come to the conclusion that the Tara Reade story is BS. So at the end of the day, I'm not sure how this is bad for Biden, as the author wants to believe.
And he's not even "surging." That doesn't make sense. His numbers have remained quite steady for a good period of time. That bodes well, especially since it hasn't moved much since Trump started attacking him.
It's the Washington Examiner. There's an agenda there, obviously.
Edit---ha...he's only talking about the one Q poll. My post was in reference to the overall average of Biden up by over 5%. Always look for the average, folks.
Comments
- Biden is surging at a time when you aren't hearing from him much
- Trump’s favorability has stayed mostly consistent
- Given that the surge is not necessarily coming from Trump’s favorability dropping, does Biden lose the bump when people start seeing and hearing him more again?
2. And we know he has a base of support that isn't moving. So it's not going to the 30's no matter what. It will stay in that low 40's. So I think this is a weak argument.
3. See number 2. There are probably people who disapprove of Trump but might be 'undecided'. I would be surprised if very much of that 'approved' are going to flip to Biden.
any reasonable person does not want the shit stain on their conscience of having voted for him twice.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I also think his blaming the Chinese should be an angle for the Dems. Trump blames China, but he's the one that started a trade war he can't finish, and he failed to protect us from a virus originating there. Why should he be given another chance to fail us? Sure maybe some hard left Blues are uncomfortable with that, but they are not staying home.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
i could go on, but nothing i present will persuade you that hillary would have been infinitely better on this than your boy trump.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
she would not have downplayed it.
she would have consulted with leaders of other nations and not gone it alone as dump did.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
what he did is the same as if japan attacked pearl harbor and FDR sat around tweeting about how unfairly he is being treated.
trump deserves every single ounce of blame he gets.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
And I'll add another two, the Treasury Department wouldn't be sitting on half a trillion dollars of Congressionally passed relief aid nor would Hillary be threatening states with withholding federal dollars because of mail in ballot applications.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
"we will be down to zero cases soon"
"I take no responsibility'
"anyone who wants a test can get a test"
and of course Fauci covering his face and shaking is head and so many more
just play the tapes and say nothing should be the Dems strategy. let his own words hang himself
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-snowballing-china-travel-claim/
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
You're so right about the bickering and conspiracy theories. It's fucking insane that this many people have a strong opinion about a malaria drug.
Edit: thought I was in the coronavirus thread. Go there to find out how wrong you are.
These numbers are all real good so far. The Pennsylvania, AZ and Michigan numbers, in particular, are real nice to see as Trump won them in '16. Looking like the '18 midterm numbers thus far...
It's the Washington Examiner. There's an agenda there, obviously.
Edit---ha...he's only talking about the one Q poll. My post was in reference to the overall average of Biden up by over 5%. Always look for the average, folks.