Kind of shocked that they were still allowing people to go to hospitals.
Sorry to hear of how this will impact you, personally. This sucks.
thanks man. it will be alright.
i don't work in trauma. i work in sports medicine. most of my accounts shut down elective surgeries a few weeks ago. i have one account that is the biggest account in the country for our human bone and cartilage grafts. they do a lot of joint reconstructions in young people that are too young to have a knee or hip replacement. they reconstruct the joints using our bone grafts and out nails to hold the grafts in place. most people wait 6-12 months to get a graft match before they can have the surgery. once there is a graft match, they have 60 days to implant the grafts before the grafts go bad. since there is an expiration date, these surgeries are deemed non-elective, meaning they have to proceed with them, kinda like a bad fracture, they need to fix it asap. as a result, my partner and i are the only ones on our team that have been going in and out of hospitals the last few weeks. most of my teammates have been working from home. this account has been trying to crank out as many of these cases as possible before being forced to shut down. i guess the good news is there are no more of these cases scheduled until 4/15 so i will be able to work from home until that time, which will be really strange.
"You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry." - Lincoln
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
we got the word today from corporate that we are not to enter a hospital or surgery center to make any sales calls. we are not to enter unless it is absolutely necessary, such as covering a surgery to provide product assistance. the company knows we are all going to lose income on sales because accounts are not doing surgeries, thus not buying our stuff. we were told we will get quota relief, meaning they will lower what we are expected to hit, and they will find a way to compensate us so that we stay afloat and can pay our bills and such. i had a good March, so my commissions will carry me a couple of months, but i am not sure what will happen after may, because april is going to be a wash with nobody buying anything. it got really real for me this morning.
Kind of shocked that they were still allowing people to go to hospitals.
Sorry to hear of how this will impact you, personally. This sucks.
thanks man. it will be alright.
i don't work in trauma. i work in sports medicine. most of my accounts shut down elective surgeries a few weeks ago. i have one account that is the biggest account in the country for our human bone and cartilage grafts. they do a lot of joint reconstructions in young people that are too young to have a knee or hip replacement. they reconstruct the joints using our bone grafts and out nails to hold the grafts in place. most people wait 6-12 months to get a graft match before they can have the surgery. once there is a graft match, they have 60 days to implant the grafts before the grafts go bad. since there is an expiration date, these surgeries are deemed non-elective, meaning they have to proceed with them, kinda like a bad fracture, they need to fix it asap. as a result, my partner and i are the only ones on our team that have been going in and out of hospitals the last few weeks. most of my teammates have been working from home. this account has been trying to crank out as many of these cases as possible before being forced to shut down. i guess the good news is there are no more of these cases scheduled until 4/15 so i will be able to work from home until that time, which will be really strange.
Sounds like really interesting work. I hope you get back to it, in a safe way, soon.
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
I did the dummy math way back when this started so I get it. It’s way over 15 though.
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
I did the dummy math way back when this started so I get it. It’s way over 15 though.
It's the number on the right that terrifies me
Source?
I’m guessing those numbers on the right derive from hospitalized cases, yes?
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
I did the dummy math way back when this started so I get it. It’s way over 15 though.
It's the number on the right that terrifies me
Source?
I’m guessing those numbers on the right derive from hospitalized cases, yes?
It looks like the same source I've been using to track the numbers.
That looks like Worldometer They list their sources for data deeper in the site as they make updates typically. Seem to be pretty good at aggregating the info and keep ahead of many other sources.
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
"...if some countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (which is what the UK is currently doing) – the death rate can appear higher than in countries where testing is widespread (such as Germany or South Korea)."
Due to difference in testing protocols, "the current figures are “not at all” directly comparable between countries".
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
I did the dummy math way back when this started so I get it. It’s way over 15 though.
It's the number on the right that terrifies me
Source?
I’m guessing those numbers on the right derive from hospitalized cases, yes?
It looks like the same source I've been using to track the numbers.
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home. Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.
For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers. In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.
For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule. Under 40, very small, 50 still small. Rises over 60, more over 70. Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).
We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus. There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages. I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.
Damn. This thread has gone sideways. I'm personally going to step aside for a while to let everyone discuss Trump, both sides, etc. Be safe and healthy, everyone!
My big decision right now is to where to order take out from Saturday night. What about you? Oh very big news: we have really weird alcohol laws in NJ; the governor just relaxed the laws and breweries can now make home deliveries!
Hope your wives former neighbors are doing better and glad you saw your son. PA resumes delivering alcohol again, can order up to six bottles. System crashed or something like that. I'm not a big drinker but I put ice in my wine too. Be safe everyone
Thanks bud! Neighbor is still critical but stable and in a medically induced coma. He is showing slight improvement. Hopefully he comes home soon.
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home. Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.
For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers. In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.
For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule. Under 40, very small, 50 still small. Rises over 60, more over 70. Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).
We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus. There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages. I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.
This and access to treatment. What happens when this is full blown in 2nd and 3rd world countries that don’t have anywhere near the level of treatment capacity? What happens to the world supply chain, particularly food production here and abroad? That’s what keeps me up at night.
This is a continuation of the administration to make it be known that they will not allow just about anyone to speak out about this administration or speak negatively about them.
It's worse if one is in the military, it's all intimidating anyone in the administration to not even think of being a whistleblower. This certainly has a mob feel to how they are running/ruining our government.
Peace
I do recall a McCrystal being relieved by Obama after a RollingStone articles, so it's not just this admin...
This is a continuation of the administration to make it be known that they will not allow just about anyone to speak out about this administration or speak negatively about them.
It's worse if one is in the military, it's all intimidating anyone in the administration to not even think of being a whistleblower. This certainly has a mob feel to how they are running/ruining our government.
Peace
I do recall a McCrystal being relieved by Obama after a RollingStone articles, so it's not just this admin...
As well he should have been. Publicly dishing the CIC is not good for discipline nor morale. They all serve at the pleasure of the CIC. In this case it’s unfortunate but it doesn’t bother me, it is what it is.
Now, if Team Trump Treason ordered him to sink a cruise ship or something and he refused, I might feel differently but it doesn’t change the chain of command issues.
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
This is a continuation of the administration to make it be known that they will not allow just about anyone to speak out about this administration or speak negatively about them.
It's worse if one is in the military, it's all intimidating anyone in the administration to not even think of being a whistleblower. This certainly has a mob feel to how they are running/ruining our government.
Peace
I do recall a McCrystal being relieved by Obama after a RollingStone articles, so it's not just this admin...
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.
Yeah shedding that different light on it is, for the most part, a good thing so people know that way more people will recover from the virus than will die from it. But on the other hand, I think that bit of info might have led to some people not observing the quarantine and social distancing recommendations. Take those spring-breakers in Florida for example. I bet many of them thought to themselves "Well I've had the flu before. It won't be that bad." Then they go home and infect their parents or siblings, who in turn infect their co-workers or classmates, and the spread continues.
Did you read up on how nobody truly understands how the WH came up with the 100,000 to 240,000 dead figures in their dog & pony kiss Team Trump Treason’s ass show the other day. But I’ve got a theory or two for you: it’s either to make the big boy look good when the ultimate numbers come in lower, so he can hold rallies and tout his most successful incredible response in the history of responses or it’s a shit ton worse than they’re letting on and don’t want to “spook” the voters. Or more likely, it’s just a colossal clusterfuck of ineptness and they have not a fucking clue.
Brilliant brilliance in all its brilliancy. BS must be so proud.
Accurate modeling usually requires pretty good data. Our data is garbage since testing is so low. A few days ago Merkel said, “We have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the German population will be infected as long as this remains the situation".
Basic dummy math coming your way.... Let's say only 25% of the 325 million Americans end up getting covid and the mortality rate for those that get it is around 3.5% (it's currently 10% in Italy while China claims they are at 4%). That would put the death toll in the US at 284,000.
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home. Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.
For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers. In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.
For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule. Under 40, very small, 50 still small. Rises over 60, more over 70. Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).
We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus. There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages. I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.
That interpretation of the percentages does not add up.
“ However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic. ”
So let’s agree to 30% based on that logic, and scientists are telling us at most the asymptomatic and minor symptoms are about 25% of that 30%. So that leaves us with about 22% of the population with serious infection , and at a 1% mortality rate, would leave a horrific amount of casualties. In a normal world, the bassist for FoW does not perish at 52, so let’s not trust that early demographic analysis , that data is apparently flawed.
Because of the high asymptomatic percentage, it’s impossible to know for sure. But we went from 100 deaths per day to a thousand really quick. So does that rate continue to double? Go up by a factor of 10 x per week? If so how many times does it double? How far away are we from the peak? 45 days in the US? That’s a lot of days to potentially double. NY has been shut down almost 14 days, which is supposed to be the shelf life of this virus, and had its worst day of reporting new cases. A few days ago NY represented about half of new daily cases, now it’s about a third. So it’s moving throughout the country.
I do not think we will approach that mortality level, but the lesson here is we not should make the same mistakes many were making 2+ weeks ago. Because back then we were looking for silver linings and as a result , packing the restaurant and beaches. tens of thousands of Americans could die because of that false logic 2 weeks ago because they felt either safe or invincible due to youth.
The asymptomatic nature should not be giving anyone comfort, but the exact opposite.
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.
Yeah shedding that different light on it is, for the most part, a good thing so people know that way more people will recover from the virus than will die from it. But on the other hand, I think that bit of info might have led to some people not observing the quarantine and social distancing recommendations. Take those spring-breakers in Florida for example. I bet many of them thought to themselves "Well I've had the flu before. It won't be that bad." Then they go home and infect their parents or siblings, who in turn infect their co-workers or classmates, and the spread continues.
Definitely not saying to break quarantine or protocols to slow the spread. The new .66% estimate was within the last few days so it may be a good thing that the numbers looked more drastic causing less idiots running around. The frontal lobe is a funny thing.
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.
Yeah shedding that different light on it is, for the most part, a good thing so people know that way more people will recover from the virus than will die from it. But on the other hand, I think that bit of info might have led to some people not observing the quarantine and social distancing recommendations. Take those spring-breakers in Florida for example. I bet many of them thought to themselves "Well I've had the flu before. It won't be that bad." Then they go home and infect their parents or siblings, who in turn infect their co-workers or classmates, and the spread continues.
Definitely not saying to break quarantine or protocols to slow the spread. The new .66% estimate was within the last few days so it may be a good thing that the numbers looked more drastic causing less idiots running around.
I know you’re not saying that. But I think the “It’s not THAT bad” rhetoric from many people (Trump, De Blasio, etc.) about a month ago has made it worse than it had to be.
These numbers are from known cases that resulted in symptoms that alarmed the person enough to get tested. It is estimated that over 20% of those affected are asymptomatic and many that have symptoms are just told to ride it out without testing unless they become too ill. The latest estimate on the mortality rate is .66%, this would be roughly 6 to 7 times deadlier than the seasonal flu (.1%) if you were to contract it. Not good, but nowhere near a mortality rate of 5%. What makes this scarier is it seems to be transmitted much easier than the flu so many more will be infected and the number of deaths could be higher than 6 to 7 times that of the normal flu season. The virus trackers are great, but they also spread more fear because they don't account for those that weren't ill enough to get tested or asymptomatic. The number that needs to be focused on is .66%.
That’s all true but still, even 5% of only the known cases dying is still a lot. Especially considering many countries aren’t even at the peak of how many cases they’ll end up having. That might end up lowering the death-rate percentage, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot of people.
And even if ya don’t die, having to go through the process seems like hell. Whether it be simply getting the test, which is painful as hell, or having to be hospitalized. You’ve seen the reports from overcrowded hospitals. It looks awful. I’ve been carefully observing the quarantine the best I can. The three most likely outcomes for someone like me if I contact the virus are being on the shelf for a few weeks (most likely, but not guarantee), being hospitalized, or death. So even if only one of those three scenarios contribute the mortality rate, I don’t want a part of any of them.
I hear you, I'm just trying to let people see this in a different light to help ease concern if I can. I have at least 10 people in my family that I am much more concerned about given their age & health. Stay safe, hopefully this will be behind us soon.
Yeah shedding that different light on it is, for the most part, a good thing so people know that way more people will recover from the virus than will die from it. But on the other hand, I think that bit of info might have led to some people not observing the quarantine and social distancing recommendations. Take those spring-breakers in Florida for example. I bet many of them thought to themselves "Well I've had the flu before. It won't be that bad." Then they go home and infect their parents or siblings, who in turn infect their co-workers or classmates, and the spread continues.
Definitely not saying to break quarantine or protocols to slow the spread. The new .66% estimate was within the last few days so it may be a good thing that the numbers looked more drastic causing less idiots running around.
I know you’re not saying that. But I think the “It’s not THAT bad” rhetoric from many people (Trump, De Blasio, etc.) about a month ago has made it worse than it had to be.
so trump is trying to force 3M to stop exporting N95 masks to canada and 3M is fighting back. AMERICA FIRST RIGHT?
I’d think you’d be use to the US shafting Canada in time of need. Trump/3m, Obama shafting us on the new international bridge between Windsor/Detroit us paying the full 5 billion tab and being forced use inferior us products on the bridge, Bush/ gander Newfoundland and the introduction of passport to travel between our 2 countries. The US government has never been friends of this country
just curious...did you complain when you found out Trudeau sent 16 tones of PPE to China...the same country that lied about this virus and now will cost Canada taxpayers a ton $...
just remember...we can manufacture all the PPE we need. The US in many places are short of water, we have plenty water...and in a few years the US may need water from us, and the answer should be FUCK NO!
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Sorry to hear of how this will impact you, personally. This sucks.
i don't work in trauma. i work in sports medicine. most of my accounts shut down elective surgeries a few weeks ago. i have one account that is the biggest account in the country for our human bone and cartilage grafts. they do a lot of joint reconstructions in young people that are too young to have a knee or hip replacement. they reconstruct the joints using our bone grafts and out nails to hold the grafts in place. most people wait 6-12 months to get a graft match before they can have the surgery. once there is a graft match, they have 60 days to implant the grafts before the grafts go bad. since there is an expiration date, these surgeries are deemed non-elective, meaning they have to proceed with them, kinda like a bad fracture, they need to fix it asap. as a result, my partner and i are the only ones on our team that have been going in and out of hospitals the last few weeks. most of my teammates have been working from home. this account has been trying to crank out as many of these cases as possible before being forced to shut down. i guess the good news is there are no more of these cases scheduled until 4/15 so i will be able to work from home until that time, which will be really strange.
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Fatality rates are very likely no where close to 10% or even 4%; you are correct that this relates to how many people are tested, but also to other factors. However, actual rate of infections is likely going to be higher than 25%, when we count asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic.
Here is a good and not overly long article that provides more info.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ
www.cluthelee.com
www.cluthe.com
Sounds like really interesting work. I hope you get back to it, in a safe way, soon.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/490992-gop-senator-calls-for-investigation-into-mismanagement-of-strategic
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It's the number on the right that terrifies me
I’m guessing those numbers on the right derive from hospitalized cases, yes?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
They list their sources for data deeper in the site as they make updates typically.
Seem to be pretty good at aggregating the info and keep ahead of many other sources.
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Great article. Thank you for sharing.
"...if some countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (which is what the UK is currently doing) – the death rate can appear higher than in countries where testing is widespread (such as Germany or South Korea)."
Due to difference in testing protocols, "the current figures are “not at all” directly comparable between countries".
I said it a week or 2 ago, but I personally know 3-5 people who have/had this and all of them basically recovered/recovering at home. Not tested, and not counted in the 'cases'.
For the most part, a disproportionate number of the positive tests are people who are severe enough to go to the hospital (and even then, probably another level of severity/concern), so it is going to skew the statistics much toward scarier numbers. In reality, we are probably closer to 1% or less.... which is awful, especially with how communicable this virus is.
For people under 30, the mortality rate is miniscule. Under 40, very small, 50 still small. Rises over 60, more over 70. Over 80, very bad (but not a certain death sentence).
We look at the media and sometimes this looks like a doomsday virus. There are stories posted of people dying of all (adult) ages. I do think this serves society well though because people DO need to wait this out awhile so (hopefully) we can get control of it and get testing and tracking online so we dont lose 20% of our baby boomers and lose a lot of others as hospitals wont be able to handle anything.
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Now, if Team Trump Treason ordered him to sink a cruise ship or something and he refused, I might feel differently but it doesn’t change the chain of command issues.
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Because of the high asymptomatic percentage, it’s impossible to know for sure. But we went from 100 deaths per day to a thousand really quick. So does that rate continue to double? Go up by a factor of 10 x per week? If so how many times does it double? How far away are we from the peak? 45 days in the US? That’s a lot of days to potentially double. NY has been shut down almost 14 days, which is supposed to be the shelf life of this virus, and had its worst day of reporting new cases. A few days ago NY represented about half of new daily cases, now it’s about a third. So it’s moving throughout the country.
I do not think we will approach that mortality level, but the lesson here is we not should make the same mistakes many were making 2+ weeks ago. Because back then we were looking for silver linings and as a result , packing the restaurant and beaches. tens of thousands of Americans could die because of that false logic 2 weeks ago because they felt either safe or invincible due to youth.
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just curious...did you complain when you found out Trudeau sent 16 tones of PPE to China...the same country that lied about this virus and now will cost Canada taxpayers a ton $...
just remember...we can manufacture all the PPE we need. The US in many places are short of water, we have plenty water...and in a few years the US may need water from us, and the answer should be FUCK NO!