2020 Fall North American rumour thread

PJNB

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

80,000 seat stadium vs 18000 seat arenas. Plus 1/3 of the ppl of the 22000 will have been guaranteed vaccinated 

And 9 months of vaccinations that will hopefully ramp up anytime now....

lastexit78

I don't spend much time around here anymore since there's obviously not much going on in regards to shows, etc. Has there been any talk about some kind of virtual performances? The band basically plays sets together in an empty venue, The Moore, Paramount or even The Showbox. These shows could be live streamed to 10 Club members and we could also purchase downloads with some of the proceeds going towards various charities and even the venues. Once everyone in the band/crew has been vaccinated, hopefully by June I think this would be a cool option for 2021. At this point any of us who follow this pandemic rationally know real shows are not happening this year. Even next year is far from certain. But if they could give us like 5 shows with varying setlist that we could watch and buy it would be a nice option at this point. I'd love a reason to check in to the board here more than once every few weeks. At least something like this would give us a chance to compare setlists and pick our favorite "Virtual Sets". 

Weston1283

At some point, promoters and bands are going to have to decide if they are going to allow unvaccinated people into their venues

I truly believe that by August, the vaccine will be readily and easily available to anyone who wants it (in the US at least).  I also believe that a good 30% minimum of the population will choose not to get it.  What then?

A lot of the media and a lot of people mis use the term “vaccinate everyone” because that’s never going to happen.  We need to start referring to it as “vaccinating everyone who wants it”

Super Bowl will be at 33% capacity and only 34% of that 22,000 will be confirmed vaccinated.  Its just hard for me to see a scenario where events couldn't happen at much higher capacity %'s than that 8 months from now, not just Pearl Jam but concerts in general.

tdawe

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

There are some places in this country, like Florida, where legally speaking you can basically do any fucking thing that you want to do vis a vis gatherings. In the near future it will be theoretically possible for bands and promoters to put on shows in those places, making judgments on their own about their comfort level regarding the vaccination levels of the population. Under no circumstances is Pearl Jam going to be one of those bands. 

In the non-psychotic parts of the country, the process is going to go like this:
1. A lot of people get vaccinated.
2. A lot more people get vaccinated.
3. Case, hospitalization and death numbers start leveling off,
4. A whole bunch more people get vaccinated.
5. Numbers start going down.
6. Another fuckload of people get vaccinated.
7. Numbers finally reach satisfactory levels.
8. It will once again be permissible to pack thousands of people in one place for a show.
9. Pearl Jam and other bands book shows.

Playing shows before the vaccination effort has translated into acceptable community spread numbers is simply not going to be an option in most states. Will you be able to catch certain shows in Tampa or Dallas this summer? Perhaps. But PJ isn’t going on the road again until things have gotten to a level that’s acceptable in NYC and LA.

lastexit78

Weston1283 said:

At some point, promoters and bands are going to have to decide if they are going to allow unvaccinated people into their venues

I truly believe that by August, the vaccine will be readily and easily available to anyone who wants it (in the US at least).  I also believe that a good 30% minimum of the population will choose not to get it.  What then?

A lot of the media and a lot of people mis use the term “vaccinate everyone” because that’s never going to happen.  We need to start referring to it as “vaccinating everyone who wants it”

Super Bowl will be at 33% capacity and only 34% of that 22,000 will be confirmed vaccinated.  Its just hard for me to see a scenario where events couldn't happen at much higher capacity %'s than that 8 months from now, not just Pearl Jam but concerts in general.

At some point people have to understand immunity is the ONLY way out. You can either take a vaccine and get a mild or asymptomatic version of Covid or you can get infected with the real deal. There's only TWO options here, there is no 3rd option where this thing disappears or a 4th where you just get lucky and never get infected. Maybe that message needs to be sold in a more harsh manner. This thing could be defeated to the point where it is literally another common cold in a year or two. Good article below on the future state of Covid, I've read a lot of other scientific articles stating the same conclusion. The future is in our hands in the long run. Keep doing what a lot have been, taking short cuts, acting selfishly, denying, and this pandemic is more than capable of raging for a solid 3 or 4 years. At which point society will literally be in ruins. I'd rather stick a needle in my arm twice but to each his own.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/health/coronavirus-immunity-future.html 

Weston1283

tdawe said:

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

There are some places in this country, like Florida, where legally speaking you can basically do any fucking thing that you want to do vis a vis gatherings. In the near future it will be theoretically possible for bands and promoters to put on shows in those places, making judgments on their own about their comfort level regarding the vaccination levels of the population. Under no circumstances is Pearl Jam going to be one of those bands. 

In the non-psychotic parts of the country, the process is going to go like this:
1. A lot of people get vaccinated.
2. A lot more people get vaccinated.
3. Case, hospitalization and death numbers start leveling off,
4. A whole bunch more people get vaccinated.
5. Numbers start going down.
6. Another fuckload of people get vaccinated.
7. Numbers finally reach satisfactory levels.
8. It will once again be permissible to pack thousands of people in one place for a show.
9. Pearl Jam and other bands book shows.

Playing shows before the vaccination effort has translated into acceptable community spread numbers is simply not going to be an option in most states. Will you be able to catch certain shows in Tampa or Dallas this summer? Perhaps. But PJ isn’t going on the road again until things have gotten to a level that’s acceptable in NYC and LA.

I agree with everything you said, but I also think number 9 on your timeline is going to happen well before the end of 2021.

5% of the population here in Massachusetts has already been vaccinated, and the COVID numbers are already starting to plateau, as our governor who is very very strict with COVID announced that he is lifting the curfew and will likely be expanding business capacity limits in 2 weeks.  

So that's 5% of the state vaccinated in 1 month, and that is going to happen faster now that Biden is in.  So that brings us to what, 60% or so vaccinated by September?  I know these are very simple projections in my head but things are starting to move forward at a rate where I would feel comfortable betting on concerts (not Pearl Jam) being back in action by the Fall/ Early winter

Tim Simmons

I'm no longer optimistic and would like to change my vote. No 2021 tour. Maybe some Fall dates for other bands, but not this one. 

Vaccine won't be widespread enough by Summer. 

tdawe

Weston1283 said:

tdawe said:

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

There are some places in this country, like Florida, where legally speaking you can basically do any fucking thing that you want to do vis a vis gatherings. In the near future it will be theoretically possible for bands and promoters to put on shows in those places, making judgments on their own about their comfort level regarding the vaccination levels of the population. Under no circumstances is Pearl Jam going to be one of those bands. 

In the non-psychotic parts of the country, the process is going to go like this:
1. A lot of people get vaccinated.
2. A lot more people get vaccinated.
3. Case, hospitalization and death numbers start leveling off,
4. A whole bunch more people get vaccinated.
5. Numbers start going down.
6. Another fuckload of people get vaccinated.
7. Numbers finally reach satisfactory levels.
8. It will once again be permissible to pack thousands of people in one place for a show.
9. Pearl Jam and other bands book shows.

Playing shows before the vaccination effort has translated into acceptable community spread numbers is simply not going to be an option in most states. Will you be able to catch certain shows in Tampa or Dallas this summer? Perhaps. But PJ isn’t going on the road again until things have gotten to a level that’s acceptable in NYC and LA.

I agree with everything you said, but I also think number 9 on your timeline is going to happen well before the end of 2021.

5% of the population here in Massachusetts has already been vaccinated, and the COVID numbers are already starting to plateau, as our governor who is very very strict with COVID announced that he is lifting the curfew and will likely be expanding business capacity limits in 2 weeks.  

So that's 5% of the state vaccinated in 1 month, and that is going to happen faster now that Biden is in.  So that brings us to what, 60% or so vaccinated by September?  I know these are very simple projections in my head but things are starting to move forward at a rate where I would feel comfortable betting on concerts (not Pearl Jam) being back in action by the Fall/ Early winter

My cautiously optimistic guess at this point is (1) the next show I see will be The Hold Steady at Brooklyn Bowl the week after Thanksgiving and (2) in the fall Pearl Jam announces 2020 makeup shows scheduled for Spring 2022.

Tim Simmons

Mmmmm. Can’t wait to see THS again. 

demetrios

Tim Simmons said:

I'm no longer optimistic and would like to change my vote. No 2021 tour. Maybe some Fall dates for other bands, but not this one. 

Vaccine won't be widespread enough by Summer. 

Agree. Pearl Jam won't be playing any live shows this year. :( 

Tim Simmons

I disagree with that. I think once the band and their crew get shots, I bet we get a MW Radio like live stream of them knocking out about an hour or two of tunes from a beach, and empty club or the warehouse or something. 

I’ve seen the hold steady, the oh Sees and Jason Isbell do that this year. I think we’ll see a bunch more before the year is out and I think PJ will be one of them. 

tdawe

Tim Simmons said:

Mmmmm. Can’t wait to see THS again. 

The first “Massive Nights” show in 2016, a few weeks after the election, is one of my favorite rock shows that I’ve ever seen. While it wasn’t overtly political, the sense of togetherness and community that they generated felt like the exact right antidote for that moment. Since then it’s become an annual tradition for me and my friends, one of the events I most look forward to every year, and it was a real bummer to not be able to be there in 2020. If they’re able to make it happen this year I’m going to cry like a big ol’ baby.

pbultimate

Pearl jam doesnt want to be around your germs. Thats why we’re gonna sit out for awhile. 

demetrios

PJ would never do this. Right?

https://instagram.com/p/CKZ1VVGsFez/embed/

bootlegger10

I can't see them ever doing it.  I don't know that I would want to go to that show anyway.  Just wait.  Leave that for the young people.

on2legs

Those things can pop.  That’s what happened to the bubble boy. 

D-Rod

on2legs said:

Those things can pop.  That’s what happened to the bubble boy. 

Lerxst1992

Weston1283 said:

tdawe said:

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

There are some places in this country, like Florida, where legally speaking you can basically do any fucking thing that you want to do vis a vis gatherings. In the near future it will be theoretically possible for bands and promoters to put on shows in those places, making judgments on their own about their comfort level regarding the vaccination levels of the population. Under no circumstances is Pearl Jam going to be one of those bands. 

In the non-psychotic parts of the country, the process is going to go like this:
1. A lot of people get vaccinated.
2. A lot more people get vaccinated.
3. Case, hospitalization and death numbers start leveling off,
4. A whole bunch more people get vaccinated.
5. Numbers start going down.
6. Another fuckload of people get vaccinated.
7. Numbers finally reach satisfactory levels.
8. It will once again be permissible to pack thousands of people in one place for a show.
9. Pearl Jam and other bands book shows.

Playing shows before the vaccination effort has translated into acceptable community spread numbers is simply not going to be an option in most states. Will you be able to catch certain shows in Tampa or Dallas this summer? Perhaps. But PJ isn’t going on the road again until things have gotten to a level that’s acceptable in NYC and LA.

I agree with everything you said, but I also think number 9 on your timeline is going to happen well before the end of 2021.

5% of the population here in Massachusetts has already been vaccinated, and the COVID numbers are already starting to plateau, as our governor who is very very strict with COVID announced that he is lifting the curfew and will likely be expanding business capacity limits in 2 weeks.  

So that's 5% of the state vaccinated in 1 month, and that is going to happen faster now that Biden is in.  So that brings us to what, 60% or so vaccinated by September?  I know these are very simple projections in my head but things are starting to move forward at a rate where I would feel comfortable betting on concerts (not Pearl Jam) being back in action by the Fall/ Early winter

I believe you are referring to Massachusetts delivering 360k doses to patients. Since 2 doses are required for the vaccines currently available, that would mean a rate of less than 3% of the state has been fully vaccinated.

Pfizer and Moderna have been steadily delivering about 4.3 million US  doses per week, so at 2 doses per person needed, that’s a rate of about 1.3% of the US population per week receiving a full vaccine. Johnson and Johnson could be a game changer since it’s a single dose, but it’s not expected to be available until April. AstraZenica vaccine is not expected to be available in the US anytime soon. 

Biden using the Defense Production Act is good news, but the logistics for ramping up the process is a gradual process.

The good news is we can have a significant portion of the 65 and over population vaccinated by the end of March, so fatalities should be significantly decreasing by then. But since the majority of the community will still be subject to potential infection and possibly  hospitalization, indoor concerts and sports in the “cautious” states could take until very late 2022 to happen.

PB11041

Lerxst1992 said:

Weston1283 said:

tdawe said:

Weston1283 said:

Tampa and the NFL are allowing 22,000 for the super bowl in a few weeks

7,500 of them will be fully vaccinated Heath care workers 

If we can do this in February, why can’t we do similar things in October?


https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/super-bowl-fans-spt/index.html

There are some places in this country, like Florida, where legally speaking you can basically do any fucking thing that you want to do vis a vis gatherings. In the near future it will be theoretically possible for bands and promoters to put on shows in those places, making judgments on their own about their comfort level regarding the vaccination levels of the population. Under no circumstances is Pearl Jam going to be one of those bands. 

In the non-psychotic parts of the country, the process is going to go like this:
1. A lot of people get vaccinated.
2. A lot more people get vaccinated.
3. Case, hospitalization and death numbers start leveling off,
4. A whole bunch more people get vaccinated.
5. Numbers start going down.
6. Another fuckload of people get vaccinated.
7. Numbers finally reach satisfactory levels.
8. It will once again be permissible to pack thousands of people in one place for a show.
9. Pearl Jam and other bands book shows.

Playing shows before the vaccination effort has translated into acceptable community spread numbers is simply not going to be an option in most states. Will you be able to catch certain shows in Tampa or Dallas this summer? Perhaps. But PJ isn’t going on the road again until things have gotten to a level that’s acceptable in NYC and LA.

I agree with everything you said, but I also think number 9 on your timeline is going to happen well before the end of 2021.

5% of the population here in Massachusetts has already been vaccinated, and the COVID numbers are already starting to plateau, as our governor who is very very strict with COVID announced that he is lifting the curfew and will likely be expanding business capacity limits in 2 weeks.  

So that's 5% of the state vaccinated in 1 month, and that is going to happen faster now that Biden is in.  So that brings us to what, 60% or so vaccinated by September?  I know these are very simple projections in my head but things are starting to move forward at a rate where I would feel comfortable betting on concerts (not Pearl Jam) being back in action by the Fall/ Early winter

I believe you are referring to Massachusetts delivering 360k doses to patients. Since 2 doses are required for the vaccines currently available, that would mean a rate of less than 3% of the state has been fully vaccinated.

Pfizer and Moderna have been steadily delivering about 4.3 million US  doses per week, so at 2 doses per person needed, that’s a rate of about 1.3% of the US population per week receiving a full vaccine. Johnson and Johnson could be a game changer since it’s a single dose, but it’s not expected to be available until April. AstraZenica vaccine is not expected to be available in the US anytime soon. 

Biden using the Defense Production Act is good news, but the logistics for ramping up the process is a gradual process.

The good news is we can have a significant portion of the 65 and over population vaccinated by the end of March, so fatalities should be significantly decreasing by then. But since the majority of the community will still be subject to potential infection and possibly  hospitalization, indoor concerts and sports in the “cautious” states could take until very late 2022 to happen.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are optimized with the 2nd booster injection.  I think the number is something like 65-70 % of those who are given either are good to go with the first dose, the booster just magnifies the performance efficacy.  A standrd flu shot doesn't even come close to 65-70%.   There was hope vaccines would be in the 50-60% effective range when the work first began given the nature of respiratory viruses.  

We have only seen phase 1 of the emergency rollout, there is a combined 240 million of these rolling out in the next 120 days.  The issue will be distribution, not a lack of quantity.  

RatherStarved

Apparently the Miami Heat are using COVID sniffing dogs to allow fans back.  What could go wrong?