2020 United States & Canada Tour Rumors

link93

OceansJenny said:

Looking at NYC and Balt as well - based on current speculated demand does this make sense or will the second GA be wasted? I haven’t put in for two high demand shows with GA options before.

1. NYC GA
2. NYC Res
3. Balt GA
4. Balt Res

Or should I go GA GA Res Res? And if I get shut out just go general sale? 

Your Baltimore and NYC Res would be wasted as I highly doubt they have any tickets left after first choice. So your one chance would be NYC GA and odds would probably be small. You would have a better chance with Balt Res or NYC Res first choice as GA for US shows are usually in more demand. With only 2 East Coast US shows it's going to be a hard ticket.

incidental immortality

Lerxst1992 said:

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

Thanks for going thru this, you said it very clearly.

I commented about first pick odds because quite a few out of town  fans are saying wouldn’t it be cool to see them in Balt or NY

My point is if you are not near the east coast or live near California, the way this tour is shaping up, picking NY or Balt is almost like throwing your pick away if it’s just as easy for a fan to see them anywhere else

Lets say 100,000 fans want to see a show east of the Mississippi and another 100,000 fans want to see a show west of the Mississippi. Let’s assume each group will equally divide their selections for either the 2 East shows or 6 Cali/LV shows. Let’s also assume there will be 3000 winning GA draws per show to simplify. So westerners will have six rounds of picks and easterners will have two shows picked. But in reality for these shows only pick one will matter.

This comes to about 17000 fans per west coast show and 50,000 fans per East coast show hoping for a winning draw. Since it’s likely all tickets will be gone in round one, the odds are fairly reasonable out west at 18% and in the east at 6%, even if the 10 club has both officially listed at 3%.

the odds are probably even lower for the eastern shows for two reasons:

1- population density in the east is much greater = more fans wanting in. Plus Europe fans willing to try NY

2- one of the 2 East venues is extremely small; and the other is notorious for industry insiders grabbing tons of tickets for themselves limiting total available for fans.

I totally agree with your logic. If travel isn’t a constraint then you’ll likely have better luck out west. 

The key to anyone’s lottery is pick  #1.  Weigh where you’d like to see them most versus the odds tool projections. If NYC is where you want to see them make that your first entry and cross your fingers. If you are open to any venue then pick the best odds. 

incidental immortality

Cristina2332 said:

incidental immortality said:

gotthebottle said:

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

YES!! That's why I keep telling people...If you REALLY want a show in a hard to get city,  put it as your first choice and don't worry about the others just yet. 

This would be my advice for "winning" the lottery.
1.  Review the show dates and cities.  Decide how many of the shows you'd like to attend and rank each on how critical it is for you to attend.
2.  Decide if you need GA or can also go for Reserved.  Reserved in NA generally has better odds than GA.  Also, many members choose to enter GA as their first option and Reserved as their second.  So, if you go Reserved as your #1 choice you will have a distinct odds advantage.
3.  Halfway through the entry period review the current odds in the tool.  
4.  For shows with lower odds (<10%) it would be a risk making the show anything past your first choice.
5.  For shows with good odds (>75%) you may be able to get away with making them your 2nd or 3rd choice.
6.  For shows with great odds (>90%) you will likely get tickets with any choice.
7.  A GA entry any lower than 1st choice for a high demand show is a wasted entry.  You'd be better served picking Reserved for a high demand show as #1 and GA for a low demand show as #2.
8.  For cities with more than one date, the club typically only allows you to win tickets for one of the dates.  If you use four entries for the two nights (GA night 1, Reserved night 1, GA night 2, and Reserved night 2) it is likely that three of your choices would be voided.  If you prefer GA your best option would be to choose the night with the best GA odds as #1 the Reserved with the best odds as #2.
9.  Balance your desire for a show versus your odds to get tickets.  It may be better for you to take the risk of a low odds draw for a show in your backyard versus a good odds show elsewhere.
10.  Make your entries well in advance with the understanding that you can change them prior to the end of the entry period.
11.  A ticket buddy really does help.  You can get better odds for a single show or better chance of getting tickets to multiple shows.  Just be prepared to get two pairs if you both enter for the same show.
12.  As many have written, your Ten Club number doesn't affect your odds.  It only affects your seat choice if you choose reserved.
13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.


 

I’m not sure if this has been answered but I will ask anyway. If you really want GA to a show as a 10C member, is it really just luck of the draw? There’s no longevity algorithm that chooses a 20 year member for GA over someone that joined 2 years ago? I understand for reserved seats your 10C number matters. Your post was super informative. Thanks for it. 

Correct. Everyone in a given pool has the same odds regardless of seniority. That means if someone with a 10XXX number and another member with a 700XXX number both have NYC as their first pick then they have equal chance of winning. 

incidental immortality

JM144705 said:

So here's my conundrum. I've been I  the ten club for some time (300xxx). I generally like my seats. I always prefer reserved seats. But with the east only getting NYC and Baltimore I'm considering signing up my wife and putting her in the lottery for GA for both those shows. I definitely don't like my odds by myself. Is worth the $20 to sign her up to slightly increase my odds?

I did this for the last MSG show (2016). I used my first pick on reserved since my number is 76XXX. I chose GA for her since hers is 600XXX. I won, she lost. Ten Club got our $20 but it was worth a shot. 

incidental immortality

link93 said:

OceansJenny said:

Looking at NYC and Balt as well - based on current speculated demand does this make sense or will the second GA be wasted? I haven’t put in for two high demand shows with GA options before.

1. NYC GA
2. NYC Res
3. Balt GA
4. Balt Res

Or should I go GA GA Res Res? And if I get shut out just go general sale? 

Your Baltimore and NYC Res would be wasted as I highly doubt they have any tickets left after first choice. So your one chance would be NYC GA and odds would probably be small. You would have a better chance with Balt Res or NYC Res first choice as GA for US shows are usually in more demand. With only 2 East Coast US shows it's going to be a hard ticket.

I agree with Link93. If you happen to win NYC GA then your #2 pick is automatically disqualified (can’t win two pairs). If you want two high demand shows the best option is to go GA for NYC as #1 and Reserved Bal as #2. It is unlikely that any #2 picks will win GA in the East. 

link93

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

BrainofBGA

Just put Balls in your Mouth as the Holiday single B Side and be done with it. 

gotthebottle

link93 said:

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

People...If you want to go to a specific show... PUT IT AS FIRST CHOICE. 
Those who overanalyze often regret it. 

NewfieintheUSA

gotthebottle said:

link93 said:

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

People...If you want to go to a specific show... PUT IT AS FIRST CHOICE. 
Those who overanalyze often regret it. 

Agreed

link93

NewfieintheUSA said:

gotthebottle said:

link93 said:

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

People...If you want to go to a specific show... PUT IT AS FIRST CHOICE. 
Those who overanalyze often regret it. 

Agreed

I agree that if you really want one show put it number 1 and be done with it.  

MUZIK

PSA

Locals should have first priority before members from outer states.

i said it

link93

MUZIK said:

PSA

Locals should have first priority before members from outer states.

i said it

Yeah and if you live in one of those states PJ never plays you’re SOL. 

OceansJenny

gotthebottle said:

link93 said:

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

People...If you want to go to a specific show... PUT IT AS FIRST CHOICE. 
Those who overanalyze often regret it. 

Yes but GA or reserved? 

Last year there were only 7 US shows. I put in for both Fenway shows and won both. Lucky? Larger capacity? 

I don’t remember people upset about shut outs last year. 2016 more so, although there were more shows. 🤔

OceansJenny

incidental immortality said:

link93 said:

OceansJenny said:

Looking at NYC and Balt as well - based on current speculated demand does this make sense or will the second GA be wasted? I haven’t put in for two high demand shows with GA options before.

1. NYC GA
2. NYC Res
3. Balt GA
4. Balt Res

Or should I go GA GA Res Res? And if I get shut out just go general sale? 

Your Baltimore and NYC Res would be wasted as I highly doubt they have any tickets left after first choice. So your one chance would be NYC GA and odds would probably be small. You would have a better chance with Balt Res or NYC Res first choice as GA for US shows are usually in more demand. With only 2 East Coast US shows it's going to be a hard ticket.

I agree with Link93. If you happen to win NYC GA then your #2 pick is automatically disqualified (can’t win two pairs). If you want two high demand shows the best option is to go GA for NYC as #1 and Reserved Bal as #2. It is unlikely that any #2 picks will win GA in the East. 

This is helpful - thank you! I suppose I need to decide which show I want for GA. Or play safe and go both Reserved. 

tdawe

OceansJenny said:

gotthebottle said:

link93 said:

I doubt any #2 pick for Baltimore or New York will win and a heck of a lot of #1 picks won't win either. If you want to have decent chance to win you are going to have to go West Phoenix and maybe Denver or Ottawa/Quebec.

People...If you want to go to a specific show... PUT IT AS FIRST CHOICE. 
Those who overanalyze often regret it. 

Yes but GA or reserved? 

Last year there were only 7 US shows. I put in for both Fenway shows and won both. Lucky? Larger capacity? 

I don’t remember people upset about shut outs last year. 2016 more so, although there were more shows. 🤔

IIRC it seemed like they were able to secure a greater % of tickets for the 10C compared to what they’ve been able to get for US arena shows. 

OceansJenny

incidental immortality said:

JM144705 said:

So here's my conundrum. I've been I  the ten club for some time (300xxx). I generally like my seats. I always prefer reserved seats. But with the east only getting NYC and Baltimore I'm considering signing up my wife and putting her in the lottery for GA for both those shows. I definitely don't like my odds by myself. Is worth the $20 to sign her up to slightly increase my odds?

I did this for the last MSG show (2016). I used my first pick on reserved since my number is 76XXX. I chose GA for her since hers is 600XXX. I won, she lost. Ten Club got our $20 but it was worth a shot. 

Did this strategy actually work for anybody? Regardless of what the 10c say, I have a hard time believing an account registered the day before the lottery opened would win one of the most coveted show and ticket type.

Sorry to derail the convo to ticket odds. Haven’t had any show date hints in a bit though. 😉

incidental immortality

 OceansJenny said:

incidental immortality said:

JM144705 said:

So here's my conundrum. I've been I  the ten club for some time (300xxx). I generally like my seats. I always prefer reserved seats. But with the east only getting NYC and Baltimore I'm considering signing up my wife and putting her in the lottery for GA for both those shows. I definitely don't like my odds by myself. Is worth the $20 to sign her up to slightly increase my odds?

I did this for the last MSG show (2016). I used my first pick on reserved since my number is 76XXX. I chose GA for her since hers is 600XXX. I won, she lost. Ten Club got our $20 but it was worth a shot. 

Did this strategy actually work for anybody? Regardless of what the 10c say, I have a hard time believing an account registered the day before the lottery opened would win one of the most coveted show and ticket type.

Sorry to derail the convo to ticket odds. Haven’t had any show date hints in a bit though. 😉

It didn’t work for us in 2016 but in 2014 my wife got GA Worcester 1 with her #1 choice and I got Reserved Hartford with my #1 choice. That was her first year in the club. 

Choska

MUZIK said:

PSA

Locals should have first priority before members from outer states.

i said it

I think of this every time I dream of Drop In The Park 2.0, with first priority given to fans with Seattle-area zip codes. 

given2fly23

https://twitter.com/coachella/status/1212933086704308226?s=20

gotthebottle

You beat me to Coachella post....