Donald Trump

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Comments

  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 33,673
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 19,855
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    Ahhhh, but for Rubles, the NRA, the RNC, Cambridge Analytica, putin on the ritz’s oligarchs, their troll farms, three key electoral states and an unwitting, incapable of critical thinking American electorate and here we are. But why? What’s really going on? PTAPE? Russian Team Trump Treason Tower? Money laundering? Deep, deep indebtedness? Both monetary and personal? What’s really going on with Team Trump Treason?
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • vaggar99vaggar99 San Diego USAPosts: 3,084
    so now SOTU will be a gym pep rally
  • Hi!Hi! Posts: 895
    vaggar99 said:
    so now SOTU will be a gym pep rally
    The biggest and best gym pep rally of all time. Thousands will be denied due to capacity limits. Believe me.
  • Hi!Hi! Posts: 895
    Maybe he can deliver his sotu from the kremlin
  • stuckinlinestuckinline Posts: 2,492
    President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump says federal employees currently furloughed or working without pay due to the partial government shutdown are experiencing a "little bit of pain" for the "future of our country."

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/24/government-shutdown-lara-trump-little-bit-pain-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 21,060
    Clueless idiot is idiocy contagious in this family..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 21,060
    If there’s one word this idiot should never ever utter is TRUTH damn ..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 11,950
    President Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump says federal employees currently furloughed or working without pay due to the partial government shutdown are experiencing a "little bit of pain" for the "future of our country."

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/24/government-shutdown-lara-trump-little-bit-pain-sot-ac360-vpx.cnn
    Well if it was for a worthwhile cause it would be temporary pain for longterm gain.  Instead its for a wall....that people will climb over, dig under, go around, go through....
    hippiemom = goodness
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 10,858
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • my2handsmy2hands Posts: 17,118
    Registered voter for 22 years... never been polled
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Electoral polls weren't wrong either - it's that people need to be informed on how statistics work. He was given a ~30-35% chance of winning. That is nothing to sneeze at, that didn't mean Clinton was definitely going to win. For some reason this gave people comfort. If Electoral polls had him winning at 0-5% now that would be a comfort.
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 10,858
    edited January 24
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Electoral polls weren't wrong either - it's that people need to be informed on how statistics work. He was given a ~30-35% chance of winning. That is nothing to sneeze at, that didn't mean Clinton was definitely going to win. For some reason this gave people comfort. If Electoral polls had him winning at 0-5% now that would be a comfort.
    Yeah...well I guess it's all moot now anyway. It's like trying to determine how the Falcons lost that Super Bowl to the Patriots. It's was a crazy Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with the Patriots as five-time Super Bowl champions. Same thing here. A Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with Donald Trump as President. At least for now. Or God help us, maybe until January 2025. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • CM189191CM189191 Minneapolis via ChicagoPosts: 4,479

    WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501

    Yeah...well I guess it's all moot now anyway. It's like trying to determine how the Falcons lost that Super Bowl to the Patriots. It's was a crazy Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with the Patriots as five-time Super Bowl champions. Same thing here. A Molotov Cocktail of circumstances and now we all have to live with Donald Trump as President. At least for now. Or God help us, maybe until January 2025. 
    This is totally my mentality. Any hope I had in people being decent went out the window two years ago - expect the worst, hope for the best. Actually, don't hope at all.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 33,673
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Why would you think they do not matter? What's a better way to gauge the mood of the country? Have a weekly national election? I'd argue they matter now more than ever. Republicans didn't start to part ways with Nixon until his numbers dropped into the low 30's. And approval numbers usually dictate winners and losers in government shutdowns---since more of the country blames Trump, Pelosi has the leverage to  postpone the state of the union. 

    Regarding 2016:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
    Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 19,855
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Craft Beer Brewery, ColoradoPosts: 6,258
    Another reminder of what kind of "human" was elected president.....


  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    Whatever - no excuses. Dems should be able to make up that 90k of voters regardless. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 19,855
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    Whatever - no excuses. Dems should be able to make up that 90k of voters regardless. 
    Whatever? An American election was swayed by Russian influence, most likely in knowing coordination with Team Trump Treason. And the question remains, why? What does putin on the ritz have over Team Trump Treason?

    I believe people are in denial about the power of social media and too embarrassed to admit that they fell for it, whether it was they thought they could vote from their phone or that Hillary gave birth to alien babies. Voters need to smarten the fuck up.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 1,013
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Why would you think they do not matter? What's a better way to gauge the mood of the country? Have a weekly national election? I'd argue they matter now more than ever. Republicans didn't start to part ways with Nixon until his numbers dropped into the low 30's. And approval numbers usually dictate winners and losers in government shutdowns---since more of the country blames Trump, Pelosi has the leverage to  postpone the state of the union. 

    Regarding 2016:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
    Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.


    Spot on regarding the 2016 polls. Nationally they were spot on, but some states (including many that play fast and loose with voting rights) were not.

    In FL for example, is anyone going to point out in all the rural red districts, turnout was through the roof in 2018? While in the large city and suburban blue districts, turnout was only so so?

     And the Rs lately are consistently finding a way to win elections FL statewide by 0.2%. Like they know the exact number of votes needed to win. Just like 2016 PA MI WI.

    Funny how that works. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501
    More accurately the blind R's detached from Nixon when the audio tape leaked. 

    Less than the population of a college football stadium made the difference. Dems need to work harder this time around - simple as that.
    Or stop being influenced by Putin on the ritz and think critically.
    Whatever - no excuses. Dems should be able to make up that 90k of voters regardless. 
    Whatever? An American election was swayed by Russian influence, most likely in knowing coordination with Team Trump Treason. And the question remains, why? What does putin on the ritz have over Team Trump Treason?

    I believe people are in denial about the power of social media and too embarrassed to admit that they fell for it, whether it was they thought they could vote from their phone or that Hillary gave birth to alien babies. Voters need to smarten the fuck up.
    I'm not dismissing the actions taken. And I think we pretty much know at this point why Trump did it - to build a Trump Tower in Russia and make money, not to win an election. And Putin's coming for receipts.

    I'm not one to keep rehashing over what is done. Dems' ground game was no where near as strong as it was in the previous two elections. I just hope they realize there's major work to be done, regardless of Russian interference.
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 11,950
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Why would you think they do not matter? What's a better way to gauge the mood of the country? Have a weekly national election? I'd argue they matter now more than ever. Republicans didn't start to part ways with Nixon until his numbers dropped into the low 30's. And approval numbers usually dictate winners and losers in government shutdowns---since more of the country blames Trump, Pelosi has the leverage to  postpone the state of the union. 

    Regarding 2016:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
    Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.


    Spot on regarding the 2016 polls. Nationally they were spot on, but some states (including many that play fast and loose with voting rights) were not.

    In FL for example, is anyone going to point out in all the rural red districts, turnout was through the roof in 2018? While in the large city and suburban blue districts, turnout was only so so?

     And the Rs lately are consistently finding a way to win elections FL statewide by 0.2%. Like they know the exact number of votes needed to win. Just like 2016 PA MI WI.

    Funny how that works. 
    You think it's weird that they know what they need to do to win?  That's weird.

    If Hillary had thought about it and campaigned properly we wouldn't be in the mess we are in right now.  Lots of people on those campaigns are paid to figure out how to eek out the right number of votes from each of the districts let alone the state.
    hippiemom = goodness
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 11,501
    34% of all registered votes support him, per that poll. 
    So how can we assume that the rest of the public isn’t the same ratio?

    Is geography a factor?
    I've always been kinda dismissive of polls like this. 34% of ALL registered voters support him? I wasn't polled. In fact, I've been a registered voter for 17 years and I haven't once been polled in any way. 

    I half kidding there. There's obviously some sort of mathematics/science behind polls that makes it credible because they often times predict the correct outcomes. But I didn't buy the polls during the 2016 election because I felt there were a lot of closeted Trump supporters (I actually knew a couple personally) that didn't want to admit they supported him because they'd be made fun of for it. I think there are more of those Trump voters than there are MAGA-hat-wearing Trump fans. I  wonder if his horrible presidency will flip those "closeted" voters....because his fans aren't going anywhere. But they're just a vocal minority. 
    The
    National
    Polls
    Were
    Largely
    Correct
    In
    2016

    They mostly had him losing the popular vote by about 3%, which is roughly what he lost the popular vote by. 

    Sorry. But I feel like I've had to say this to folks a million times over the last few years. 

    But
    The
    National
    Polls
    Don't 
    Matter

    Unless of course you give a crap about the popular vote.  As for some polls that actually matter, Trump trailed in polls in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan on the eve of the election, and won all three states.
    Why would you think they do not matter? What's a better way to gauge the mood of the country? Have a weekly national election? I'd argue they matter now more than ever. Republicans didn't start to part ways with Nixon until his numbers dropped into the low 30's. And approval numbers usually dictate winners and losers in government shutdowns---since more of the country blames Trump, Pelosi has the leverage to  postpone the state of the union. 

    Regarding 2016:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
    Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.


    Spot on regarding the 2016 polls. Nationally they were spot on, but some states (including many that play fast and loose with voting rights) were not.

    In FL for example, is anyone going to point out in all the rural red districts, turnout was through the roof in 2018? While in the large city and suburban blue districts, turnout was only so so?

     And the Rs lately are consistently finding a way to win elections FL statewide by 0.2%. Like they know the exact number of votes needed to win. Just like 2016 PA MI WI.

    Funny how that works. 
    You think it's weird that they know what they need to do to win?  That's weird.

    If Hillary had thought about it and campaigned properly we wouldn't be in the mess we are in right now.  Lots of people on those campaigns are paid to figure out how to eek out the right number of votes from each of the districts let alone the state.
    I'm definitely not here to shit on 2016 or Clinton, but there was a lot of hubris on that team. But, hey, in some weird way this was all needed - more people than ever are charged up, engaged and involved in some form of their local or national political environment; silver linings to some degree.
  • PJPOWERPJPOWER In Yo FacePosts: 4,926
    Now THAT is taking the high road.  
    "At least I'm housebroken"
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 10,858
    I've only seen bits and pieces of this story. Can someone give a cliff-notes version of it? All I've seen is a Native American man banging a drum about a foot away from the face of some kid wearing a MAGA hat and the kid just stands there smirking. But obviously there has to be more to it than that. 
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • rgambsrgambs Posts: 11,865
    I had to laugh at Fox and Friends playing a video of approximately 100 immigrants scaling a tall fence on the border.
    Playing up fear for a border wall by showing a border wall's total inability to stop immigrants who can *gasp* buy and carry ladders lol
    Monkey Driven, Call this Living?
  • rgambs said:
    I had to laugh at Fox and Friends playing a video of approximately 100 immigrants scaling a tall fence on the border.
    Playing up fear for a border wall by showing a border wall's total inability to stop immigrants who can *gasp* buy and carry ladders lol

    The only problem is the fact that Trump's bucktoothed yokels that are yeehawing for the wall have diminished capacity and would never be able to make that connection.
    "My brain's a good brain!"
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