Making sense of the Lottery Ranking-Post Your results with Rankings

Eddieshometown

I'm kind of a data geek so I'm trying to figure out how this lottery works. There has been a lot of speculation but probably the best way to determine it is to post your results and we can kind of "reverse engineer" what the different rankings mean.

I'm not sure if there is a prior post just dedicated to this yet but I couldn't find one. I saw a lot of different posts where a few people posted their results but not one just dedicated to posting results

Based upon prior posts:

1) Someone who selected a show with 99% chance of winning didn't win the show at all (GA or Reserved) but it would be good to know how far down this was ranked

2) someone who selected 1) NYC #1 GA and 2) NYC #1 Res won NYC Reservered

Please just post your results and we can start a separate topic for analysis

ComeToTX

1st choice 04/21/2016 Columbia, SC- GA Standing WON

2nd choice 04/26/2016 Lexington, KY- Reserved Seating WON

3rd choice 04/20/2016 Raleigh, NC- Reserved Seating WON

mcgruff10

1st choice. Night 1 msg reserved lost
2nd choice night 1 philly reserved lost
3rd choice ( Hail Mary) night 2 msg reserved lost

corduroykelly

1st and only choice Lexington, KY GA WON

amethgr8

1st choice Lex KY GA-lost
2nd choice Lex KY RES-won
3rd choice Tampa FL GA-lost
4th choice Tampa FL RES-won

Leezestarr313

1st choice Philadelphia 1 - Res WON
2nd choice Toronto, ON - Res LOST
3rd choice Philadelphia 2 - Res LOST
4th choice Philadelphia 1 - GA LOST
5th choice Philadelphia 2 - GA LOST
6th choice Toronto, ON - GA LOST

tschav

1) MSG 1 Reserved - Lost
2) MSG 2 Reserved - Lost
3) MSG 1 GA - Lost
4) MSG 2 GA - Lost
*None had odds better than 10%, not surprised

Porchsitter

1) Greenville GA Won
2) Greenville RS Lost

jmug23

It would probably be easier to just ask Kat or someone from the Fan club and I'm sure they will explain it. I personally think we are all over thinking it. My guess the odds just represent the overall amount of requests for tickets in relation to the amount available. As far as the guy who lost shows that had 99%, it seems that was a rare instance. Probably just a credit card error or an error from fan club. Haven't seen anyone else post they didn't get tickets to those shows. Back to your original point....:)

1. Greenville GA. Won
2. Greenville reserved. Lost

MayDay10

1. Toronto reserved -won
2. Raleigh GA - lost
3. Raleigh reserved - won

iwasatpj20

1. Raleigh reserved - won
2. Columbia reserved - won
3. Greenville reserved - won

pjruss

Miami reserved- Won
Jax Ga- Won
Jax reserved- Lost
Tampa reserved- Won

Joeyoey65

1) MSG 1 Res - Lost
2) MSG 2 Res - Lost
3) MSG 1 GA - Lost
4) MSG 2 GA - Lost
5) PA 2 Res - Lost
6) PA 2 GA - Lost
7) PA 1 Res - Lost
8) PA 1 GA - Lost

Lost all. Knew it was going to be a long shot though. Was surprised to see some folks win maybe a FL show as their first pick, and then also NY as one of their latter choices. There's always next time, right?

presenttents

I too am a data geek and support this effort.

1) Greenville GA - won
2) Greenville RSVD - lost
3) Lexington GA - lost

seanwon

1) MSG 2 Reserved - Won
2) MSG 2 GA - Lost
3) MSG 1 Reserved - Lost
4) MSG 1 GA - Lost

I knew picks 2-4 were pretty much useless, but I had nothing to lose.

RS151862

1) Philly 2 GA - Lost
2) Philly 2 Reserved - Won

Weston1283

1st choice 04/21/2016 Columbia, SC- GA Standing $159.00
WON
2nd choice 04/08/2016 Ft Lauderdale, FL- Reserved Seating $159.00
WON
3rd choice 04/26/2016 Lexington, KY- Reserved Seating $159.00
WON
4th choice 04/16/2016 Greenville, SC- Reserved Seating $159.00
LOST
5th choice 04/09/2016 Miami, FL- Reserved Seating $159.00
LOST
6th choice 04/20/2016 Raleigh, NC- Reserved Seating $159.00
WON
7th choice 04/21/2016 Columbia, SC- Reserved Seating $159.00
LOST


My thought process...
Columbia GA was at like 60%... fairly certain I would win this this as #1
Ft. Lauderdale RES was at like 40% I believe, so I made it #2 assuming many people had FL GA 1st and RES 2nd, so once all the GA were fulfilled, many reserved seats would be available.
Lexington RES was at 77%, which is likely closer to 99% once the GAs are fulfilled
I didnt expect to win Greenville and Miami, so no surprise there
Raleigh and Columbia RES were both at 99%, so they were guaranteed Wins regardless of how low I ranked them

hoversmith

I Got my 1, 3, and go figure 8th picks.

I would of prefered the GA for my home town (Quebec), but my wife is short, and will not do mosh pits any more !! ... I'm looking to trade both my Tampa and Ottawa RS venues for GA at same locations. I have an honnest member # of 211k

1) Quebec RS - Won
2) Tampa GA - Lost
3) Ottawa RS - Won
4) Ottawa GA - Lost
5) MSG 1 RS - Lost
6) MSG 1 GA - Lost
7) Quebec GA - Lost , ...
8) Tampa RS - Won

TenaciousLibbs

1st choice 05/01/2016 New York, NY- GA Standing WON
2nd choice 05/02/2016 New York, NY- Reserved Seating LOST
3rd choice 04/08/2016 Ft Lauderdale, FL- Reserved Seating WON

Member #222XXX

tempo_n_groove

1-MSG 1 res lost
2-MSG 2 res lost
3-JAX GA won
4-Jax Res lost
5-FTL res lost
6-MIA res lost
7-Tampa res won
8-Philly 1 res lost
9-philly 2 res lost

recently40

1) Columbia GA - Won
2) Hampton Reserved - Won
3) Raleigh Reserved - Won
4) Columbia Reserved - Lost
5) Raleigh GA - Lost
6) Hampton GA - Lost

I won a GA show in each of the last 2 lotteries - and it was always my 1st priority pick.

Kanye East

Philly 1 reserved - lost
Philly 2 reserved - won
Philly 1 ga - lost
Philly 2 ga - lost

pierj53

Everyone noticing a trend? "Most" people that put in for smaller shows like Columbia and Hampton won and most that went for high demand shows like msg or philly did not. A direct correlation with the odds. My advice, if it's feasible in the future, and you can take a road trip or sometime off try and play the odds

Isoworld13

1) FLL RES - WON
2) PHL (night 2) RES - WON
3) VA GA - lost
4) VA RES - WON
5) MIA RES - lost
6) TPA RES - WON
7) MSG (night 2) RES - lost
My # is real low, so reserved seats are usually awesome. Love the pit, but not worth taking a chance at the lower odds and sacrificing my chances for multiple shows. Knew the Philly & MSG shows would be extremely hard AND once you win 1 show in that city all your other picks for that show become void, so there's no sense loading up your top 4 picks with one city (ie RES & GA for both nights). If you are LUCKY, you can hit ONE of those picks and now your next pick isn't until pick 5. After I got shut out in the Wrigley lottery and had to pay and arm & a leg for tickets, my wife and I decided to get her a membership to increase our odds in future lotteris. Since her # is so high, we usually try for just a couple GA shows for her. She lucked out with MOLINE GA in her first lottery. This time around we decided to have her go for MIAMI GA #1, MIAMI RES #2, and FLL GA #3. Since Miami's odds were so good, we were pretty confident that she'd hit either GA or RES. (She hit #1 choice - Miami GA) The FLL reserved odds were also very good (especially with a #1 pick) so by me taking FLL RES #1 and her going for MIA GA #1 and Miami RES #2, we felt real confident at getting BOTH those shows which is what we really wanted. Took a shot at Philly RES with my #2 pick. Figured people would be torn between GA and RES OR between Philly or MSG, so a single shot at ONE Philly show (at the better odds Reserveds) was the way to go. That was it, Wasn't about to waste any more picks on NY or Philly and hurt my other chances. Went for VA GA with my #3 pick which I usually NEVER do. It is extremely rare that I see people hit a GA pick with anything other than a 1st or 2nd pick. I did it though because the VA Reserved odds were very good & I thought I would have a good chance at getting VA RES at #4. If those odds had dropped any more, I would have skipped VA GA at #3 and gone straight for the better odds of VA RES at #3. My thoughts proved correct & I was able to get VA RES at #4 after losing VA GA at #3. Chose MIA RES at #5. Knew that if I DID hit MIA RES at #5 then the wife would have already had tix cause she had MIA at #1 & #2. However, if wife MISSED out on MIA GA, I knew that my MIA RES would be better than her MIA RES (159xx VS 516xxx) and that if we hit both it would be very easy to get rid of hers. Put Tampa RES at #6 cause the odds were crazy good (OVER 90%) so I knew I didn't have to put that one very high at all. All in all, your BEST chance to GUARANTEE at least ONE show is to go for RESERVED seats to the more unpopular shows. Play the odds. Do you HAVE to have GA, or do you just want to be in the building? Even the WORST 10c tix are better than all the tix from Ticketmaster, and you won't have to pay 4 to 5 times FACE on some scalping site.

MR39814

1. Lexington GA - lost
2. Lexington Reserved - won

bootleg

So far it doesn't look like there are any outliers, and the results match the expected odds/priority. Good to know.

adam42381

1. Raleigh Reserved - won
2. Raleigh GA - lost
3. Greenville Reserved - won
4. Greenville GA - lost

jasonrolfe

1. Toronto Reserved - won
2. Ottawa Reserved -won
No other choices

pawlowski1097

Msg nite 2 ga lost
Msg nite 2 res lost
Msg nite 1 ga lost
Msg nite 2 res lost
Philly nite 2 res lost

jasonrolfe

Eddieshometown said:

I'm kind of a data geek so I'm trying to figure out how this lottery works. There has been a lot of speculation but probably the best way to determine it is to post your results and we can kind of "reverse engineer" what the different rankings mean.

I support the effort. You going to throw the data into Excel? Or something sexier like SAS, SPSS or Tableau?

yacovfb

1. Philly Night 2 Reserved - Won
2. Greenville Reserved - Won
3. Lexington Reserved - Won
4. Lexington GA - Lost
5. Philly Night 1 Reserved - Lost