I haven’t been as obsessed with the Eagles as Young Mook is since I was like 11.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,377
I haven’t been as obsessed with the Eagles as Young Mook is since I was like 11.
Haha....the Buddy Ryan days, eh? Those were fun times.
They was crazy back then
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
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F Me In The Brain
this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 30,708
Credit to what you guys have been saying....Vikings lost today because they failed on 3rd and 4th down in OT....both with less than a yard. Tried the push on 3rd and sort of push on 4th. Both were fully stuffed and awful.
Credit to what you guys have been saying....Vikings lost today because they failed on 3rd and 4th down in OT....both with less than a yard. Tried the push on 3rd and sort of push on 4th. Both were fully stuffed and awful.
being a dallas fan, I don’t like philly’s success with the push but I see no reason to ban it. it’s like, “can’t do that. you’re too good at it.”
If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14
We can get 1 yard but we can’t cover any receivers and Slay is out Monday. The only guy who can cover anyone. Not feeling good.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
This Desai move seems like a panic one to me. I liked them bringing in Patricia more than others did but I think the issue on D has been more personnel/injuries than coaching. They were ranked middle of the road-ish up until a month ago. Obviously this was a horrible stretch, but it was also against the best teams in the league while dealing with some injuries....and, they're also 10-3. lol. I'd expect them to rise back up the rankings and perform better over the next month verses the lower tiered competition.
Bills have had more success since caning Dorsey a month ago. The Ravens won a SB after firing Cam Johnson midway through the season a decade ago. So... who knows? I guess we will see.
Gosh, that was a rough loss for the Cowboys yesterday, eh Wob? 3-4 on the road? Yeesh.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,377
Credit to what you guys have been saying....Vikings lost today because they failed on 3rd and 4th down in OT....both with less than a yard. Tried the push on 3rd and sort of push on 4th. Both were fully stuffed and awful.
At least they tried it? I cannot get over the amount of teams who don't even utilize the regular sneak.
Credit to what you guys have been saying....Vikings lost today because they failed on 3rd and 4th down in OT....both with less than a yard. Tried the push on 3rd and sort of push on 4th. Both were fully stuffed and awful.
At least they tried it? I cannot get over the amount of teams who don't even utilize the regular sneak.
I kind of thought the ordinary QB sneak was a largely successful play in football. Probably easier for most teams than the QB shove since the QB can pick out a hole.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Damn...10-4 and 2:44 the next day and only one person has turned up?!
I didn't even really get a chance to watch the game. had to be at work at like 2am. Yeah were not that great. Hoping to turn it around before the playoffs start though
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
Damn...10-4 and 2:44 the next day and only one person has turned up?!
Mailing gifts at the post office?
If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
The Philadelphia Eagles are spiraling downward, a trend that continued with Monday night’s 20-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. It was the third straight loss for the reigning NFC champions, and it left them a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the best record in the conference and tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East lead heading into Week 16. Betting markets now have the Eagles as a distant second behind the 49ers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but even that might be too favorable. At this point, it is hard to take the Eagles seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
This shouldn’t be terribly surprising; cracks were showing in the foundation as far back as Week 2, when the Eagles were 2-0 en route to a 5-0 start. They opened the season with one-score wins over the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings, yet you could argue those wins were earned through good fortune more than solid play, a pattern that continued deep into the season — until it didn’t.
And now, when you compare the Eagles with other title contenders, they seem clearly lacking. For example, the Miami Dolphins, like the Eagles, are 10-4, but Miami has a point differential of plus-147. The Cowboys are 10-4, with a plus-167 point differential. The Detroit Lions are 10-4 with a positive 51-point differential. The 49ers are one game better than Philadelphia but have outscored opponents by a whopping 191 points. The 11-win Baltimore Ravens have scored 159 more points than their opponents. The Eagles, on the other hand, have managed just 18 more points than their opponents, a total we would expect through 14 games from a 7-7 team, not one with double-digit wins.
Philadelphia is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most wins in one-possession games — seven victories by a margin of eight or less. Those are games that easily could have flipped to losses with a different bounce or two. Since 2002, 44 teams have had at least seven one-score wins in the first 15 weeks of the season. Just three — the 2003 New England Patriots, 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2015 Denver Broncos — went on to win the Super Bowl.
In addition, Philadelphia’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in a host of categories, including points allowed (26th), first downs allowed (27th), passing touchdowns allowed (31st) and plays allowed per drive (32nd), a performance that prompted Coach Nick Sirianni to demote defensive play caller Sean Desai in favor of Matt Patricia last week.
One of the most reliable indicators for championship-level teams is passer rating differential — the difference between a team’s passer rating and the collective passer rating of the quarterbacks it has faced. Its correlation to success led football analyst Kerry Byrne to dub it the “mother of all stats” during the 2012 Pro Football Researchers Association biennial meeting. The key to the stat’s longevity lies in what it is measuring: the passing prowess of a team, and a team’s ability to limit its opponents from having success passing, in a sport that increasingly revolves around passing attacks. Passing plays are far more efficient than running plays. Over the past five seasons plus 2023, teams have produced 6.2 yards per play via the air and 4.4 yards per play on the ground. According to TruMedia, 44 percent of passing plays in that span have improved a team’s chances of scoring compared to 40 percent of rushing plays. Those numbers change to 46 and 37 percent, respectively, when only looking at first and second down, meaning on early downs the advantage of passing is even more pronounced.
So how does this matter? Since 2002, 25 of the 42 Super Bowl participants have finished with a passer rating differential among the top five in the league, including six of the past 10 winners. The outliers among the Super Bowl winners include the 2007 New York Giants (24th), 2011 Giants (12th), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (12th), 2015 Denver Broncos (18th) and 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16th). The results through the first 15 weeks of the season hold up, too, allowing us to separate this year’s contenders from the pretenders.
The results at the conference level are even more stark. The median net passer rating rank of the eventual AFC winner has been third, while it has been second in the NFC. In fact, 38 of the past 42 Super Bowl participants ranked at least in the top nine of their conference in net passer rating heading into Week 16.
Philadelphia ranks 25th (minus-8.1) in the NFL in net passer rating and 10th in the NFC. That means the Eagles would be a clear historical outlier if they manage to appear in the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The same isn’t true for the other notable contenders, who all look the part, per the “mother of all stats.” The 49ers lead the league with a plus-40.1 net passer rating, with the Cowboys (plus-21.5, No. 2 in the NFC), Ravens (plus-21.1, No. 1 in the AFC) and Dolphins (plus-21.1, No. 2 in the AFC) also in the top five. One surprise per this metric is the New Orleans Saints (plus-15.3, No. 3 in the NFC), a 7-7 squad that is on the outside of the playoff picture. The Eagles led the league in net passer rating last season and narrowly lost the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Eagles have a below average net passer rating through Week 15 of the 2023 season
Net passer rating is the difference between a team’s passer rating and the collective rating of the quarterbacks a team has faced.
There is a good chance the Eagles can get back in the mix for the NFC’s No. 2 seed over the next few weeks; they have one of the easiest closing schedule in the NFL, per methods such as ESPN’s Football Power Index and analyst Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average. That schedule includes two games against the New York Giants (5-9) and one against the Arizona Cardinals (3-11) at home. My estimates give the Eagles a 63 percent chance to go 3-0 as long as they play their starters in the finale against the Giants. A record of 13-4 or 12-5 and possibly an NFC East title could be good enough to keep optimism high among Eagles fans, but don’t be fooled. This is a team wrapped in glittery window dressing that will be exposed as the stakes get higher.
Take it for what it's worth being that I am a 49ers fan, but I think the Eagles are going to get a lot of this figured out and will be a factor in the playoffs. San Francisco looked great the first 5 games of the season, stumbled for 3 straight losses (which set off a panic in the fan base) and then got back to form and look great again. Good teams find a way, and I still consider the Eagles a good team.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,377
Take it for what it's worth being that I am a 49ers fan, but I think the Eagles are going to get a lot of this figured out and will be a factor in the playoffs. San Francisco looked great the first 5 games of the season, stumbled for 3 straight losses (which set off a panic in the fan base) and then got back to form and look great again. Good teams find a way, and I still consider the Eagles a good team.
Hey look, someone who is offering an objective take. No doubt, man. Thank you.
10-4 is better than I thought they'd be at this point given their schedule and the SB hangover. But Monday's game was their worst of the season, though. No excuse for losing that one. Granted Hurts had the flu or covid or the bubonic plague or something but he was bad after that first drive.
Giants twice and Cards is just what the doctor ordered to finish the season with though.
Go Birds.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,377
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
HA....hahah....a Patriots fan. This brought a smile to my face. God bless.
How’s your “dynasty” doing?
You are another fan the Eagles broke many years ago. Mook, this is what you can look forward to, my man. At least his loss was in the Super Bowl.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
I do know that. Too bad you don’t realize that your team is overrated, based not on any other team’s fans but based on stats and level of play. Enjoy your “dynasty.”
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
HA....hahah....a Patriots fan. This brought a smile to my face. God bless.
How’s your “dynasty” doing?
You are another fan the Eagles broke many years ago. Mook, this is what you can look forward to, my man. At least his loss was in the Super Bowl.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
I do know that. Too bad you don’t realize that your team is overrated, based not on any other team’s fans but based on stats and level of play. Enjoy your “dynasty.”
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
17 AFC East Champions, including 11 in a row
13 AFC Championship games, going 9-4
9 Superbowls, going 6-3
The Eagles haven’t “broken” shit.
Overrated? Lol....that would be in the eye of the beholder, ie: fans. I said earlier they have a better record at this point than what I thought they'd have by now. That doesn't strike me as being "overrated."
All year the people in this thread have been talking about how they have not played up to their potential. I think you are misinformed...or perhaps you are going off of wobbie's weekly rating system? Yeah, that's probably it.
Listen, they broke you. The evidence is you here, in this thread, talking about Super Bowls from twenty years ago. This is what the Eagles do to people. Crushing losses send you into tailspins that can last, apparently, for years. Young mook is only in the beginning of his journey. Perhaps you two can start a support group. Maybe we can start a thread for you to share your struggles? I wish you peace.
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
HA....hahah....a Patriots fan. This brought a smile to my face. God bless.
How’s your “dynasty” doing?
You are another fan the Eagles broke many years ago. Mook, this is what you can look forward to, my man. At least his loss was in the Super Bowl.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
I do know that. Too bad you don’t realize that your team is overrated, based not on any other team’s fans but based on stats and level of play. Enjoy your “dynasty.”
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
17 AFC East Champions, including 11 in a row
13 AFC Championship games, going 9-4
9 Superbowls, going 6-3
The Eagles haven’t “broken” shit.
Overrated? Lol....that would be in the eye of the beholder, ie: fans. I said earlier they have a better record at this point than what I thought they'd have by now. That doesn't strike me as being "overrated."
All year the people in this thread have been talking about how they have not played up to their potential. I think you are misinformed...or perhaps you are going off of wobbie's weekly rating system? Yeah, that's probably it.
Listen, they broke you. The evidence is you here, in this thread, talking about Super Bowls from twenty years ago. This is what the Eagles do to people. Crushing losses send you into tailspins that can last, apparently, for years. Young mook is only in the beginning of his journey. Perhaps you two can start a support group. Maybe we can start a thread for you to share your struggles? I wish you peace.
My peace is in the soon to be 38 year drought and the soon to be installed metal bleachers at Gillette and regional blackouts of broadcasts.
To play up to potential, you have to have potential. The grind of that early soft schedule has caught up to them.
I wish you solace in the one SB victory that you’ll see in your lifetime.
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
HA....hahah....a Patriots fan. This brought a smile to my face. God bless.
How’s your “dynasty” doing?
You are another fan the Eagles broke many years ago. Mook, this is what you can look forward to, my man. At least his loss was in the Super Bowl.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
I do know that. Too bad you don’t realize that your team is overrated, based not on any other team’s fans but based on stats and level of play. Enjoy your “dynasty.”
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
17 AFC East Champions, including 11 in a row
13 AFC Championship games, going 9-4
9 Superbowls, going 6-3
The Eagles haven’t “broken” shit.
Overrated? Lol....that would be in the eye of the beholder, ie: fans. I said earlier they have a better record at this point than what I thought they'd have by now. That doesn't strike me as being "overrated."
All year the people in this thread have been talking about how they have not played up to their potential. I think you are misinformed...or perhaps you are going off of wobbie's weekly rating system? Yeah, that's probably it.
Listen, they broke you. The evidence is you here, in this thread, talking about Super Bowls from twenty years ago. This is what the Eagles do to people. Crushing losses send you into tailspins that can last, apparently, for years. Young mook is only in the beginning of his journey. Perhaps you two can start a support group. Maybe we can start a thread for you to share your struggles? I wish you peace.
My peace is in the soon to be 38 year drought and the soon to be installed metal bleachers at Gillette and regional blackouts of broadcasts.
To play up to potential, you have to have potential. The grind of that early soft schedule has caught up to them.
I wish you solace in the one SB victory that you’ll see in your lifetime.
This is the post of a broken fan.
Your particular Eagles loss was now almost 6 years ago. Yet here you are, in the Eagles thread, trying, unsuccessfully, to make a coherent argument.
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
HA....hahah....a Patriots fan. This brought a smile to my face. God bless.
How’s your “dynasty” doing?
You are another fan the Eagles broke many years ago. Mook, this is what you can look forward to, my man. At least his loss was in the Super Bowl.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
I do know that. Too bad you don’t realize that your team is overrated, based not on any other team’s fans but based on stats and level of play. Enjoy your “dynasty.”
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
17 AFC East Champions, including 11 in a row
13 AFC Championship games, going 9-4
9 Superbowls, going 6-3
The Eagles haven’t “broken” shit.
Overrated? Lol....that would be in the eye of the beholder, ie: fans. I said earlier they have a better record at this point than what I thought they'd have by now. That doesn't strike me as being "overrated."
All year the people in this thread have been talking about how they have not played up to their potential. I think you are misinformed...or perhaps you are going off of wobbie's weekly rating system? Yeah, that's probably it.
Listen, they broke you. The evidence is you here, in this thread, talking about Super Bowls from twenty years ago. This is what the Eagles do to people. Crushing losses send you into tailspins that can last, apparently, for years. Young mook is only in the beginning of his journey. Perhaps you two can start a support group. Maybe we can start a thread for you to share your struggles? I wish you peace.
My peace is in the soon to be 38 year drought and the soon to be installed metal bleachers at Gillette and regional blackouts of broadcasts.
To play up to potential, you have to have potential. The grind of that early soft schedule has caught up to them.
I wish you solace in the one SB victory that you’ll see in your lifetime.
This is the post of a broken fan.
Your particular Eagles loss was now almost 6 years ago. Yet here you are, in the Eagles thread, trying, unsuccessfully, to make a coherent argument.
Thank you again for bringing a smile to my face.
What is this? Only eagles fans can post in the eagles thread? Soft, like the eagles d.
Don’t shoot the messenger Juggs. I didn’t write the article nor create the stats reported in it. Just sharing some facts about your “dynasty.”
10-2. Let's take care of business next week and lock up that 1 seed. The sky still is not falling, folks.
The lie detector test determined THAT was a lie!
Also not a lie: your team getting their asses kicked in the NFC Championship game completely broke you. You are consumed by us.
Only an Eagles fan would start a thread celebrating a participation trophy they only got because the opposing team wasn’t able to field a team. What an embarrassing celebration.
Comments
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18;
Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18;
Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18;
Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
This Desai move seems like a panic one to me. I liked them bringing in Patricia more than others did but I think the issue on D has been more personnel/injuries than coaching. They were ranked middle of the road-ish up until a month ago. Obviously this was a horrible stretch, but it was also against the best teams in the league while dealing with some injuries....and, they're also 10-3. lol. I'd expect them to rise back up the rankings and perform better over the next month verses the lower tiered competition.
Bills have had more success since caning Dorsey a month ago. The Ravens won a SB after firing Cam Johnson midway through the season a decade ago. So... who knows? I guess we will see.
Gosh, that was a rough loss for the Cowboys yesterday, eh Wob? 3-4 on the road? Yeesh.
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18;
Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18;
Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14
The Eagles don’t look anything like a Super Bowl contender
The Philadelphia Eagles are spiraling downward, a trend that continued with Monday night’s 20-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. It was the third straight loss for the reigning NFC champions, and it left them a game behind the San Francisco 49ers for the best record in the conference and tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East lead heading into Week 16. Betting markets now have the Eagles as a distant second behind the 49ers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but even that might be too favorable. At this point, it is hard to take the Eagles seriously as a Super Bowl contender.
This shouldn’t be terribly surprising; cracks were showing in the foundation as far back as Week 2, when the Eagles were 2-0 en route to a 5-0 start. They opened the season with one-score wins over the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings, yet you could argue those wins were earned through good fortune more than solid play, a pattern that continued deep into the season — until it didn’t.
And now, when you compare the Eagles with other title contenders, they seem clearly lacking. For example, the Miami Dolphins, like the Eagles, are 10-4, but Miami has a point differential of plus-147. The Cowboys are 10-4, with a plus-167 point differential. The Detroit Lions are 10-4 with a positive 51-point differential. The 49ers are one game better than Philadelphia but have outscored opponents by a whopping 191 points. The 11-win Baltimore Ravens have scored 159 more points than their opponents. The Eagles, on the other hand, have managed just 18 more points than their opponents, a total we would expect through 14 games from a 7-7 team, not one with double-digit wins.
Philadelphia is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most wins in one-possession games — seven victories by a margin of eight or less. Those are games that easily could have flipped to losses with a different bounce or two. Since 2002, 44 teams have had at least seven one-score wins in the first 15 weeks of the season. Just three — the 2003 New England Patriots, 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2015 Denver Broncos — went on to win the Super Bowl.
In addition, Philadelphia’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in a host of categories, including points allowed (26th), first downs allowed (27th), passing touchdowns allowed (31st) and plays allowed per drive (32nd), a performance that prompted Coach Nick Sirianni to demote defensive play caller Sean Desai in favor of Matt Patricia last week.
One of the most reliable indicators for championship-level teams is passer rating differential — the difference between a team’s passer rating and the collective passer rating of the quarterbacks it has faced. Its correlation to success led football analyst Kerry Byrne to dub it the “mother of all stats” during the 2012 Pro Football Researchers Association biennial meeting. The key to the stat’s longevity lies in what it is measuring: the passing prowess of a team, and a team’s ability to limit its opponents from having success passing, in a sport that increasingly revolves around passing attacks. Passing plays are far more efficient than running plays. Over the past five seasons plus 2023, teams have produced 6.2 yards per play via the air and 4.4 yards per play on the ground. According to TruMedia, 44 percent of passing plays in that span have improved a team’s chances of scoring compared to 40 percent of rushing plays. Those numbers change to 46 and 37 percent, respectively, when only looking at first and second down, meaning on early downs the advantage of passing is even more pronounced.
So how does this matter? Since 2002, 25 of the 42 Super Bowl participants have finished with a passer rating differential among the top five in the league, including six of the past 10 winners. The outliers among the Super Bowl winners include the 2007 New York Giants (24th), 2011 Giants (12th), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (12th), 2015 Denver Broncos (18th) and 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16th). The results through the first 15 weeks of the season hold up, too, allowing us to separate this year’s contenders from the pretenders.
The results at the conference level are even more stark. The median net passer rating rank of the eventual AFC winner has been third, while it has been second in the NFC. In fact, 38 of the past 42 Super Bowl participants ranked at least in the top nine of their conference in net passer rating heading into Week 16.
Philadelphia ranks 25th (minus-8.1) in the NFL in net passer rating and 10th in the NFC. That means the Eagles would be a clear historical outlier if they manage to appear in the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The same isn’t true for the other notable contenders, who all look the part, per the “mother of all stats.” The 49ers lead the league with a plus-40.1 net passer rating, with the Cowboys (plus-21.5, No. 2 in the NFC), Ravens (plus-21.1, No. 1 in the AFC) and Dolphins (plus-21.1, No. 2 in the AFC) also in the top five. One surprise per this metric is the New Orleans Saints (plus-15.3, No. 3 in the NFC), a 7-7 squad that is on the outside of the playoff picture. The Eagles led the league in net passer rating last season and narrowly lost the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Eagles have a below average net passer rating through Week 15 of the 2023 season
Net passer rating is the difference between a team’s passer rating and the collective rating of the quarterbacks a team has faced.
There is a good chance the Eagles can get back in the mix for the NFC’s No. 2 seed over the next few weeks; they have one of the easiest closing schedule in the NFL, per methods such as ESPN’s Football Power Index and analyst Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average. That schedule includes two games against the New York Giants (5-9) and one against the Arizona Cardinals (3-11) at home. My estimates give the Eagles a 63 percent chance to go 3-0 as long as they play their starters in the finale against the Giants. A record of 13-4 or 12-5 and possibly an NFC East title could be good enough to keep optimism high among Eagles fans, but don’t be fooled. This is a team wrapped in glittery window dressing that will be exposed as the stakes get higher.
The Eagles don’t look like a Super Bowl contender - The Washington Post
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10-4 is better than I thought they'd be at this point given their schedule and the SB hangover. But Monday's game was their worst of the season, though. No excuse for losing that one. Granted Hurts had the flu or covid or the bubonic plague or something but he was bad after that first drive.
Giants twice and Cards is just what the doctor ordered to finish the season with though.
Go Birds.
Well, a lot better than yours. Your team is garbage. But you already know that.
As a reminder, a “dynasty” looks like this over two decades:
17 AFC East Champions, including 11 in a row
13 AFC Championship games, going 9-4
9 Superbowls, going 6-3
The Eagles haven’t “broken” shit.
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All year the people in this thread have been talking about how they have not played up to their potential. I think you are misinformed...or perhaps you are going off of wobbie's weekly rating system? Yeah, that's probably it.
Listen, they broke you. The evidence is you here, in this thread, talking about Super Bowls from twenty years ago. This is what the Eagles do to people. Crushing losses send you into tailspins that can last, apparently, for years. Young mook is only in the beginning of his journey. Perhaps you two can start a support group. Maybe we can start a thread for you to share your struggles? I wish you peace.
To play up to potential, you have to have potential. The grind of that early soft schedule has caught up to them.
I wish you solace in the one SB victory that you’ll see in your lifetime.
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Your particular Eagles loss was now almost 6 years ago. Yet here you are, in the Eagles thread, trying, unsuccessfully, to make a coherent argument.
Thank you again for bringing a smile to my face.
Don’t shoot the messenger Juggs. I didn’t write the article nor create the stats reported in it. Just sharing some facts about your “dynasty.”
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