The National Football League

mace1229

Poncier said:

mace1229 said:

mace1229 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

Then all you have to do is play prevent defense.  It's almost like defending a Hail Mary and you pretty much know what's coming.

Also 4th and 12 by any analytics stat would be an automatic punt from your own 28.

It's interesting but not very exciting.

How often were onside kicks successful with the old rules anyway? They weren't very common to begin with. My guess is converting a 4th and 12 still might be more successful than an onside kick under the old rules.

Just looked it up. It was successful 60% of the time when it was a surprise, but only 20% when expected. I would imagine most good teams could convert a 4th and 12 one in 5 attempts.

And that adds another point. The surprise onside kick just completely goes away.
Imagine the Saints Super Bowl vs the Colts without that start to the 2nd half.

I'm okay with that. I always thought an onside kick should be difficult enough to only attempt when you really have no other choice. The fact that many teams do (or did, not really anymore) it randomly suggests that is not the case.

tempo_n_groove

Poncier said:

tbergs said:

igotid88 said:

cp3iverson said:

The real winner?  New Orleans.  

Per the NY TIMES, the city wide NFL boycott had a huge factor in the drop in ratings nationwide.  NOLA is one of the strongest NFL TV viewing markets in the US.  It was by far the least watched Super Bowl in New Orleans history.  Thousands attended the Boycott Bowl festival as well as the Anti-Lie secondline parade.  Bars and restaurants refused to show the game, showing the Saints vs Colts Super Bowl instead.  

There's basically the same number of people living in the city of L.A. as there are in the state of LA

So what you're really saying is that even though LA got their team back after years of exile, the fans still don't give a damn anyway. Maybe they miss Everett, Ellard and the mean Greene machine.

LA has 2 football teams playing in the city and almost no fans of either team.
The Raiders are still far and away the most popular team in LA even though they moved back to Oakland decades ago.
The decision to allow the Chargers to move to LA and keep the Raiders in Oakland was baffling and stupid (ergo typical Goodell).
They should have let Rams & Raiders back in LA, kept Chargers in SD and worked on a stadium deal with the city of San Diego.

This is all pure gold right here!

LA hated when the rams left to St louis.  What did they do when they left?  They won a superbowl...

LA has never been a football city.  It has always been fair weather fans.  In the mid 80's they played at Anaheim and got a decent turn out though.

Meltdown99

https://twitter.com/YianniKourakis/status/1092532241203429379

HesCalledDyer

mace1229 said:

HesCalledDyer said:

Just get rid of all the dumb onside kick rules they put in place in 2018.  Those are what is making it damn near impossible to convert.  The rules are practically designed to give the kicking team 0 chance to recover the ball.

4th & 12 is fucking STUPID!!!

Although it does give the team nearly a zero chance, it wasn't designed for that. I've always heard it was designed for safety, to prevent those full speed collisions that cause the big injuries.

That's what they tell us to try to pass it off on us.  But unless 95+% of league injuries occur during onside kicks, why put so much emphasis on such a rarely executed play?  It's like the whole putting a runner on 2nd in extra innings proposal in baseball to "speed the game up."  How many games even go into extra innings and, moreso, how many go beyond 10 or 11 when they do? These changes are not going to solve the issues they are basing them on.

pjhawks

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

i didn't make any judgments on the numbers in my thread. i asked you to judge them for yourself.  as i mentioned i was curious about how the numbers would play out for the Pats.  i was not surprised at how the %s came out. i'm thinking you probably were but you didn't indicate that. i do find it interesting that you excluded end of halfs/games for passes in your numbers because of prevent defense but don't take into account how many runs come in the 4th quarter when a team is leading and killing the clock. as I've mentioned many times in the Eagles thread it's too easy to look at just final game numbers because so often the flow of the game dictates the ratio of passes to runs.  Either way i found it an interesting look into the numbers.  

The Juggler

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

i didn't make any judgments on the numbers in my thread. i asked you to judge them for yourself.  as i mentioned i was curious about how the numbers would play out for the Pats.  i was not surprised at how the %s came out. i'm thinking you probably were but you didn't indicate that. i do find it interesting that you excluded end of halfs/games for passes in your numbers because of prevent defense but don't take into account how many runs come in the 4th quarter when a team is leading and killing the clock. as I've mentioned many times in the Eagles thread it's too easy to look at just final game numbers because so often the flow of the game dictates the ratio of passes to runs.  Either way i found it an interesting look into the numbers.  

  

Why would I be surprised that, on just scoring drives (not including hurry up situations), in 9 games they had a 64/36 pass run ratio while the rest of the games are 54/46? This supports my theory that even if you have the greatest quarterback of all time, you do not want to throw the ball over 70% of the time consistently. Not sure what you’re missing. Your own numbers do not support your argument. Nothing supports your argument.

 

This offseason, they’ve had a 52/48 pass run ratio….again, they have the greatest quarterback of all time and they still ran it 48% of the time.

 Here is what the greatest coach in the history of the game has to say to you about the importance of a balanced gameplan:

“You have got to try to keep them off balance and got to make them think it is one thing and try to do something else, it is even hard then,” Belichick said of the approach against Kansas City. “You cannot sit there and do the same thing all night.”

And here is the greatest quarterback of all time, telling you how important the run game is to his success:

“You play on the road, it is going to be tough. What travels is running the ball and playing tough,” he said. “That is good in any weather, any condition, any environment and any stadium.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/01/24/patriots-third-downs-playoffs

 

Regarding whether the Pats run early or late, I have already given you this info but here it is again:

2018 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

2017 pass/run ratio in first halves: 62/38

2016 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

 

Greatest coach and greatest quarterback of all time. 6 super bowl wins. 9 super bowl appearances playing the game the exact opposite way of which you are arguing they should. There is literally no way you will ever win this argument.

pjhawks

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

i didn't make any judgments on the numbers in my thread. i asked you to judge them for yourself.  as i mentioned i was curious about how the numbers would play out for the Pats.  i was not surprised at how the %s came out. i'm thinking you probably were but you didn't indicate that. i do find it interesting that you excluded end of halfs/games for passes in your numbers because of prevent defense but don't take into account how many runs come in the 4th quarter when a team is leading and killing the clock. as I've mentioned many times in the Eagles thread it's too easy to look at just final game numbers because so often the flow of the game dictates the ratio of passes to runs.  Either way i found it an interesting look into the numbers.  

  

Why would I be surprised that, on just scoring drives (not including hurry up situations), in 9 games they had a 64/36 pass run ratio while the rest of the games are 54/46? This supports my theory that even if you have the greatest quarterback of all time, you do not want to throw the ball over 70% of the time consistently. Not sure what you’re missing. Your own numbers do not support your argument. Nothing supports your argument.

 

This offseason, they’ve had a 52/48 pass run ratio….again, they have the greatest quarterback of all time and they still ran it 48% of the time.

 Here is what the greatest coach in the history of the game has to say to you about the importance of a balanced gameplan:

“You have got to try to keep them off balance and got to make them think it is one thing and try to do something else, it is even hard then,” Belichick said of the approach against Kansas City. “You cannot sit there and do the same thing all night.”

And here is the greatest quarterback of all time, telling you how important the run game is to his success:

“You play on the road, it is going to be tough. What travels is running the ball and playing tough,” he said. “That is good in any weather, any condition, any environment and any stadium.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/01/24/patriots-third-downs-playoffs

 

Regarding whether the Pats run early or late, I have already given you this info but here it is again:

2018 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

2017 pass/run ratio in first halves: 62/38

2016 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

 

Greatest coach and greatest quarterback of all time. 6 super bowl wins. 9 super bowl appearances playing the game the exact opposite way of which you are arguing they should. There is literally no way you will ever win this argument.

you acknowledge when they score they throw 64% of the time...yet you insist that 50/50 is the perfect ratio of run/pass. that makes no sense unless you have drives where you don't want to score.  are there drives where you don't want to score? 

only in football do people want to do more of something less successful.

mace1229

HesCalledDyer said:

mace1229 said:

HesCalledDyer said:

Just get rid of all the dumb onside kick rules they put in place in 2018.  Those are what is making it damn near impossible to convert.  The rules are practically designed to give the kicking team 0 chance to recover the ball.

4th & 12 is fucking STUPID!!!

Although it does give the team nearly a zero chance, it wasn't designed for that. I've always heard it was designed for safety, to prevent those full speed collisions that cause the big injuries.

That's what they tell us to try to pass it off on us.  But unless 95+% of league injuries occur during onside kicks, why put so much emphasis on such a rarely executed play?  It's like the whole putting a runner on 2nd in extra innings proposal in baseball to "speed the game up."  How many games even go into extra innings and, moreso, how many go beyond 10 or 11 when they do? These changes are not going to solve the issues they are basing them on.

I was never under the impression that these changes were just for the safety of an onside kick, but for all kick returns. And while the players still have plenty of time to build up speed on a normal kick return, it does give the returner an extra second.

mace1229

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

i didn't make any judgments on the numbers in my thread. i asked you to judge them for yourself.  as i mentioned i was curious about how the numbers would play out for the Pats.  i was not surprised at how the %s came out. i'm thinking you probably were but you didn't indicate that. i do find it interesting that you excluded end of halfs/games for passes in your numbers because of prevent defense but don't take into account how many runs come in the 4th quarter when a team is leading and killing the clock. as I've mentioned many times in the Eagles thread it's too easy to look at just final game numbers because so often the flow of the game dictates the ratio of passes to runs.  Either way i found it an interesting look into the numbers.  

  

Why would I be surprised that, on just scoring drives (not including hurry up situations), in 9 games they had a 64/36 pass run ratio while the rest of the games are 54/46? This supports my theory that even if you have the greatest quarterback of all time, you do not want to throw the ball over 70% of the time consistently. Not sure what you’re missing. Your own numbers do not support your argument. Nothing supports your argument.

 

This offseason, they’ve had a 52/48 pass run ratio….again, they have the greatest quarterback of all time and they still ran it 48% of the time.

 Here is what the greatest coach in the history of the game has to say to you about the importance of a balanced gameplan:

“You have got to try to keep them off balance and got to make them think it is one thing and try to do something else, it is even hard then,” Belichick said of the approach against Kansas City. “You cannot sit there and do the same thing all night.”

And here is the greatest quarterback of all time, telling you how important the run game is to his success:

“You play on the road, it is going to be tough. What travels is running the ball and playing tough,” he said. “That is good in any weather, any condition, any environment and any stadium.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/01/24/patriots-third-downs-playoffs

 

Regarding whether the Pats run early or late, I have already given you this info but here it is again:

2018 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

2017 pass/run ratio in first halves: 62/38

2016 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

 

Greatest coach and greatest quarterback of all time. 6 super bowl wins. 9 super bowl appearances playing the game the exact opposite way of which you are arguing they should. There is literally no way you will ever win this argument.

you acknowledge when they score they throw 64% of the time...yet you insist that 50/50 is the perfect ratio of run/pass. that makes no sense unless you have drives where you don't want to score.  are there drives where you don't want to score? 

only in football do people want to do more of something less successful.

Every major sport, except baseball, that is probably the case. 
The final drives of any teams are just running the ball when they care more about running out the clock than scoring. The only reason why baseball would be the exception is it is about the only major sport not on a time restraint. It is probably most obvious in football, where you can run 4 or 5 minutes off in 1 possession. But even basketball if they are up by 6 or 8 they would probably be more interested in running 24 seconds off the clock than making 2 points during the last minute of the game.

The Juggler

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

The Juggler said:

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

i didn't make any judgments on the numbers in my thread. i asked you to judge them for yourself.  as i mentioned i was curious about how the numbers would play out for the Pats.  i was not surprised at how the %s came out. i'm thinking you probably were but you didn't indicate that. i do find it interesting that you excluded end of halfs/games for passes in your numbers because of prevent defense but don't take into account how many runs come in the 4th quarter when a team is leading and killing the clock. as I've mentioned many times in the Eagles thread it's too easy to look at just final game numbers because so often the flow of the game dictates the ratio of passes to runs.  Either way i found it an interesting look into the numbers.  

  

Why would I be surprised that, on just scoring drives (not including hurry up situations), in 9 games they had a 64/36 pass run ratio while the rest of the games are 54/46? This supports my theory that even if you have the greatest quarterback of all time, you do not want to throw the ball over 70% of the time consistently. Not sure what you’re missing. Your own numbers do not support your argument. Nothing supports your argument.

 

This offseason, they’ve had a 52/48 pass run ratio….again, they have the greatest quarterback of all time and they still ran it 48% of the time.

 Here is what the greatest coach in the history of the game has to say to you about the importance of a balanced gameplan:

“You have got to try to keep them off balance and got to make them think it is one thing and try to do something else, it is even hard then,” Belichick said of the approach against Kansas City. “You cannot sit there and do the same thing all night.”

And here is the greatest quarterback of all time, telling you how important the run game is to his success:

“You play on the road, it is going to be tough. What travels is running the ball and playing tough,” he said. “That is good in any weather, any condition, any environment and any stadium.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2019/01/24/patriots-third-downs-playoffs

 

Regarding whether the Pats run early or late, I have already given you this info but here it is again:

2018 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

2017 pass/run ratio in first halves: 62/38

2016 pass/run ratio in first halves: 59/41

 

Greatest coach and greatest quarterback of all time. 6 super bowl wins. 9 super bowl appearances playing the game the exact opposite way of which you are arguing they should. There is literally no way you will ever win this argument.

you acknowledge when they score they throw 64% of the time...yet you insist that 50/50 is the perfect ratio of run/pass. that makes no sense unless you have drives where you don't want to score.  are there drives where you don't want to score? 

only in football do people want to do more of something less successful.

Nope. 60/40 is a realistic ideal in today's NFL. I've been saying that to you for 10 years now. That's usually where all the well coached teams come in at......even the one's with the greatest coach and qb of all time. Shocking, right?

Meltdown99

Poncier

^The Pats choose to wear red throwbacks in Super Bowl 66 so Brady's grandchildren can think he's Santa Claus as well as a 19 time Super Bowl MVP.

Meltdown99

Poncier said:

^The Pats choose to wear red throwbacks in Super Bowl 66 so Brady's grandchildren can think he's Santa Claus as well as a 19 time Super Bowl MVP.

LOL.  

Wobbie

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Halifax2TheMax

Wobbie said:

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Waiting to happen? Me thinks he’s already brain damaged.

Thirty Bills Unpaid

Wobbie said:

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Not a 'natural' wideout.

He's a self-made one. Intelligence and athleticism can go a long ways in the sporting world.

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

Wobbie said:

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Waiting to happen? Me thinks he’s already brain damaged.

Anybody that catches passes up the middle is pretty much doomed to this.  Seriously.

Wobbie

Thirty Bills Unpaid said:

Wobbie said:

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Not a 'natural' wideout.

He's a self-made one. Intelligence and athleticism can go a long ways in the sporting world.

PED’s help, too.

but it’s the NFL, so nothing to see here, move along.

Poncier

Wobbie said:

I noticed edelman runs out of bounds a lot.....good thing, since he plays like his hair’s on fire. he’s a concussion, waithing to happen.

see: welker, wes.

Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
Franco Harris made a career out of stepping out of bounds. Jimmy Garoppolo lost a season by not doing so.
If he needs to take a hit to gain a first down on the sideline, Edelman will do it. If he's already gained 15 yards and 3 defenders are there (like Sunday), he'll step out.

F Me In The Brain

Agree wholeheartedly that the smart play a high percentage of the time is to step out.  Key first downs in crucial games?  I can see trying to gut it out.

We just know too much about 'Scrambled Egg Brain Syndrome' aka CTE now to yell for these guys to take this abuse - and if they don't to label them as 'soft', or worse.