The National Football League

Halifax2TheMax

Beautiful day for a parade.

JK_Livin

They took away the 5yd running start prior to the kick. That almost stops the onside kick in its track.

CROJAM95

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

If they don't have a good pass rush, they may never see that ball again.

You think some analytics coach like that high school one who goes for it on 4th down all the time would do the same in the nfl? Not gonna happen

CROJAM95

The Juggler said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

If they don't have a good pass rush, they may never see that ball again.

4th and 12? From what part of the field? How is the down and distance determined?

i hate the new rule. I think they changed it to prevent injuries but I have a hard time remembering a lot of injuries under the previous rule...

Supposedly that alliance football league will do this and the nfl will be watching to see how it goes

Poncier

They have been gradually trying to phase the kickoff out of the game, claiming player safety as the reason.
It would kill the careers of some players, and frankly it takes away what can be a potentially exciting play. I think the onside kick might be what has kept them from completely eliminating the kickoff at this point, though as stated the new rules have made recovering the onside kick almost impossible so what's the point.
I'm all for player safety but at some point you have to preserve the sanctity of the game.

CROJAM95

Poncier

tbergs said:

igotid88 said:

cp3iverson said:

The real winner?  New Orleans.  

Per the NY TIMES, the city wide NFL boycott had a huge factor in the drop in ratings nationwide.  NOLA is one of the strongest NFL TV viewing markets in the US.  It was by far the least watched Super Bowl in New Orleans history.  Thousands attended the Boycott Bowl festival as well as the Anti-Lie secondline parade.  Bars and restaurants refused to show the game, showing the Saints vs Colts Super Bowl instead.  

There's basically the same number of people living in the city of L.A. as there are in the state of LA

So what you're really saying is that even though LA got their team back after years of exile, the fans still don't give a damn anyway. Maybe they miss Everett, Ellard and the mean Greene machine.

LA has 2 football teams playing in the city and almost no fans of either team.
The Raiders are still far and away the most popular team in LA even though they moved back to Oakland decades ago.
The decision to allow the Chargers to move to LA and keep the Raiders in Oakland was baffling and stupid (ergo typical Goodell).
They should have let Rams & Raiders back in LA, kept Chargers in SD and worked on a stadium deal with the city of San Diego.

DewieCox

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

That’d be completely stupid. Almost as dumb as changing the rule in the first place.

The Juggler

pjhawks said:

this one is for the Juggler.  was curious myself on what the numbers would show.  decide for yourself what these numbers mean.  

*note these were calculated going through play-by-play sheets so i can't guarantee a number or two is not off.

so i went through all of the Pats scoring drives in their Super Bowl's under Brady.  and wait for it, their average scoring drives are 70% Pass and 30% Run.  Interesting thing is the TD vs FG ratio is almost exactly the same with TDs being 70.5% and FGs being 69%.

even if you take the Atlanta game as being an outlier because of the large deficit their scoring drive pass % only goes down to 65%.
if you take out the last FG drive of this weeks game which was 8 runs and no passes their pass % goes up to 72%
they'v had 5 scoring drives where they ran the ball 0 times and 8 scoring drives where they ran the ball only 1 time. so on 65% of their scoring drives they've run the ball 1 or less times.

here are the drive by drive numbers
2001:
td 3 pass 2 run
fg 2 pass 2 run
fg 8 pass 0 run

2003:
td 1 pass 3 run
fg 6 pass 0 run
td 5 pass 5 run
td 8 pass 3 run
td 6 pass 0 run

2004
td 6 pass 1 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 1 pass 4 run
fg 2 pass 5 run

2007
td 8 pass 5 run
td 11 pass 1 run

2011
fg 5 pass 4 run
td 11 pass 4 run
td 5 pass 3 run

2014
td 7 pass 2 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 8 pass 1 run
td 9 pass 2 run

2016
fg 9 pass 6 run
fg 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 6 run
fg 10 pass 1 run
td 5 pass 0 run
td 9 pass 1 run
td 7 pass 2 run

2017
fg 7 pass 2 run
fg 4 pass 0 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 2 run
td 4 pass 4 run
td 6 pass 4 run

2018
fg 5 pass 1 run
td 4 pass 1 run
fg 0 pass 8 run

Yeah, no. I don't think this proves what you think it proves.

When you remove the late game/hurry up/2 minute drill situations (we've been over why these situations call for more passes as defenses are more often in prevent/zone formations and more than happy to allow over the middle passes so long as they can keep you inbounds to run clock down), as all of these games came down to the final score, the overall number comes out to, yes about 64/36... while the entire games are closer to 50/50 as you'd expect from a well coached team like Bill Belichick's Patriots. 

I just removed final drives from the first game against the Rams, Panthers, first Giants game, Seahawks game, and final 3 drives vs Falcons as they trailed in all that late in the game. Keep in mind that I didn't bother to check end of half drives as the same rule of hurry up offense/zone defense applies to that number would actually probably put these numbers closer to 60/40.

I know you put a lot of effort into this and I actually feel bad. But no matter how hard you try you will not find any evidence that suggests teams should consistently throw the ball 70+ percent of the time, every time. Never has happened, even in arena league. Sorry man. You've just witnessed the greatest dynasty, greatest coach, and greatest quarterback win by having an almost 50/50 pass/run ratio. Learn from this.

mace1229

HesCalledDyer said:

Just get rid of all the dumb onside kick rules they put in place in 2018.  Those are what is making it damn near impossible to convert.  The rules are practically designed to give the kicking team 0 chance to recover the ball.

4th & 12 is fucking STUPID!!!

Although it does give the team nearly a zero chance, it wasn't designed for that. I've always heard it was designed for safety, to prevent those full speed collisions that cause the big injuries.

Meltdown99

How come you Patriots fans do not start a New England Patriots Super Bowl Champion Thread times 6?

dankind

https://youtu.be/_jG_MPbyPIo

mace1229

tempo_n_groove said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

Then all you have to do is play prevent defense.  It's almost like defending a Hail Mary and you pretty much know what's coming.

Also 4th and 12 by any analytics stat would be an automatic punt from your own 28.

It's interesting but not very exciting.

How often were onside kicks successful with the old rules anyway? They weren't very common to begin with. My guess is converting a 4th and 12 still might be more successful than an onside kick under the old rules.

The Juggler

dankind said:

https://youtu.be/_jG_MPbyPIo

This is fantastic. 

Poncier

Meltdown99 said:

How come you Patriots fans do not start a New England Patriots Super Bowl Champion Thread times 6?

There's a Pats thread buried somewhere on the AET, but we just post here since the Patriots pretty much own the NFL.  

mace1229

mace1229 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

Then all you have to do is play prevent defense.  It's almost like defending a Hail Mary and you pretty much know what's coming.

Also 4th and 12 by any analytics stat would be an automatic punt from your own 28.

It's interesting but not very exciting.

How often were onside kicks successful with the old rules anyway? They weren't very common to begin with. My guess is converting a 4th and 12 still might be more successful than an onside kick under the old rules.

Just looked it up. It was successful 60% of the time when it was a surprise, but only 20% when expected. I would imagine most good teams could convert a 4th and 12 one in 5 attempts.

Poncier

mace1229 said:

mace1229 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

CROJAM95 said:

JK_Livin said:

CROJAM95 said:

Instead of these crappy new onside kick rules

what does everyone think about: instead of kicking, team wanting to onside would try and convert a 4th & 12 from their own 28 yard line?

you convert... you keep the drive going

i hear the nfl is considering this in the near future

So technically one team could possess the ball for an entire half by always choosing this option after every score? Don't think I'd be up for that.

4th n 12 with a good pass rush ain’t easy to convert

you mess up, other team is already in FG range

Then all you have to do is play prevent defense.  It's almost like defending a Hail Mary and you pretty much know what's coming.

Also 4th and 12 by any analytics stat would be an automatic punt from your own 28.

It's interesting but not very exciting.

How often were onside kicks successful with the old rules anyway? They weren't very common to begin with. My guess is converting a 4th and 12 still might be more successful than an onside kick under the old rules.

Just looked it up. It was successful 60% of the time when it was a surprise, but only 20% when expected. I would imagine most good teams could convert a 4th and 12 one in 5 attempts.

And that adds another point. The surprise onside kick just completely goes away.
Imagine the Saints Super Bowl vs the Colts without that start to the 2nd half.

dankind

Could just merge the Pats thread and Yanks thread and have all the obnoxious sports fans in one place.

Or is that what the Philly thread is for?

Meltdown99

Poncier said:

Meltdown99 said:

How come you Patriots fans do not start a New England Patriots Super Bowl Champion Thread times 6?

There's a Pats thread buried somewhere on the AET, but we just post here since the Patriots pretty much own the NFL.  

lol.  I'd think you want your own thread as opposed the Egals inaccurate thread title.

Poncier

dankind said:

Could just merge the Pats thread and Yanks thread and have all the obnoxious sports fans in one place.

Or is that what the Philly thread is for?

Lol.