NCAA College Football -

mrussel1 · January 3

Poncier said:

NFL is only one of the 4 majors that reseeds. NBA, NHL and MLB do not.

You're right, they are tournament style.

Wobbie · January 3

help me out, degenerate gamblers…ESPN ticker says THEosu is a six point favorite yet Texas has a 51% chance to win.

doesn’t make sense to me.

markymark550 · January 4

You serious @Wobbie?

Wobbie · January 4

markymark550 said:

You serious @Wobbie?

I am. I don’t gamble.

ND is a 1.5 favorite but has a 59% win probability. Don’t make sense to me.

P.S. I know this whole win probability is junk science.

Poncier · January 4

The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.

cutz · January 4

mrussel1 said:

cutz said:

mrussel1 said:

From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.

I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.

I agree with Seeding based on strength of schedule.

But, what about Reseeding?

I like reseeding. I'm not sure they will go that far but I would be for it. Is it a tournament or playoffs? Tournaments do not reseed, playoffs do. Again, someone correct me. Baseball, pro-football, basketball and hockey basically reseed. Hockey has an asterisk because of the way their first rounds works. NCAA basketball is a tournament so no reseed.

edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?

I meant that strength of schedule should probably be used more to Seed the teams.

Wobbie · January 4

Poncier said:

The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.

thanks, BUDDY! 👍

in other words, “win probability” is a total waste of time. I did realize that point spread is all about setting the sweet spot for taking the degenerate’s money, regardless of which side they’re on.

mrussel1 · January 4

cutz said:

mrussel1 said:

cutz said:

mrussel1 said:

From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.

I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.

I agree with Seeding based on strength of schedule.

But, what about Reseeding?

I like reseeding. I'm not sure they will go that far but I would be for it. Is it a tournament or playoffs? Tournaments do not reseed, playoffs do. Again, someone correct me. Baseball, pro-football, basketball and hockey basically reseed. Hockey has an asterisk because of the way their first rounds works. NCAA basketball is a tournament so no reseed.

edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?

I meant that strength of schedule should probably be used more to Seed the teams.

Ok yeah.

During the Indiana game, Kurt and Fowler were saying that SOS wasn’t used well enough in the initial selection, implying Alabama should have been in instead of Indiana. But then Bama yaks against a undermanned Michigan team, Tennessee gets smoked and Georgia looks lost. So while I’m with you in seeding, need to be careful on the selection. There is no evidence that the best “at-large” teams weren’t picked.

markymark550 · January 4

Wobbie said:

Poncier said:

The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.

thanks, BUDDY! 👍

in other words, “win probability” is a total waste of time. I did realize that point spread is all about setting the sweet spot for taking the degenerate’s money, regardless of which side they’re on.

Sorry, I had to go deal with a toddler losing his mind that Elmo wasn't playing on TV anymore and forgot about it. Yeah, point spread is set to try and get equal money on both sides so the sportsbook makes money on the vig. Like Poncier said, win probability is done by algorithms from nerds locked away in the basement in Bristol. The only analytical guy I put much stock into is Pomeroy, but I think he only does college basketball.

Wobbie · January 4

Bowl Mania is over.

we’re left with the overhyped CFP.

nice to see Liberty get smacked down today.

cutz · January 5

mrussel1 said:

cutz said:

mrussel1 said:

cutz said:

mrussel1 said:

From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.

I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.

I agree with Seeding based on strength of schedule.

But, what about Reseeding?

I like reseeding. I'm not sure they will go that far but I would be for it. Is it a tournament or playoffs? Tournaments do not reseed, playoffs do. Again, someone correct me. Baseball, pro-football, basketball and hockey basically reseed. Hockey has an asterisk because of the way their first rounds works. NCAA basketball is a tournament so no reseed.

edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?

I meant that strength of schedule should probably be used more to Seed the teams.

Ok yeah.

During the Indiana game, Kurt and Fowler were saying that SOS wasn’t used well enough in the initial selection, implying Alabama should have been in instead of Indiana. But then Bama yaks against a undermanned Michigan team, Tennessee gets smoked and Georgia looks lost. So while I’m with you in seeding, need to be careful on the selection. There is no evidence that the best “at-large” teams weren’t picked.

In this day in age, I take the other Bowl games with a BIG grain of salt. Too many unknowns with players leaving in the Portal and some not playing. Plus, something I always hated was way too many days off for the Bowl games, though not as long as it used to be with the Conference Championship games.

Strength of schedule should probably have a lot of weight when selecting the teams for the playoffs.

NCAA College Football -

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