Also, the people who think cabrera should win MVP over trout are smoking too much dope (if there was such a thing ). Cabrera is a great hitter, trout is a great player
Are you talking about baseball??? Or fishing? :?
You must not have seen all the players in the league answer this question over the last couple weeks...
It's been 45 years since anyone has taken the triple crown...
Dope smoking..........Maybe, but I really don't think that has anything to do with the numbers...
Trout had a great year, just not quite as good as Miggy.
Also, the people who think cabrera should win MVP over trout are smoking too much dope (if there was such a thing ). Cabrera is a great hitter, trout is a great player
Are you talking about baseball??? Or fishing? :?
You must not have seen all the players in the league answer this question over the last couple weeks...
It's been 45 years since anyone has taken the triple crown...
Dope smoking..........Maybe, but I really don't think that has anything to do with the numbers...
Trout had a great year, just not quite as good as Miggy.
there's a reason the players don't vote. not the brightest bulbs.
cabrera is a great hitter (one phase of baseball). trout is a great player (all phases of baseball).
also, the angels were a better team this year.
I love cabrera, he's a booze hound. I hope he makes a run at the all time HR record. Trout had the better year though, regardless of triple crown or not
I respectfully disagree. Cabrera has done better at 3rd base than I think anyone expected. This is Trouts first year (which I know has nothing to do with the MVP award), and a great one at that, but there have been a lot of "break out" players that have never been heard from again. I reserve judgment as to whether or not he's a great player, or just had a great year.
BTW, the team record has nothing to do with the MVP either. Just sayin.
I respectfully disagree. Cabrera has done better at 3rd base than I think anyone expected. This is Trouts first year (which I know has nothing to do with the MVP award), and a great one at that, but there have been a lot of "break out" players that have never been heard from again. I reserve judgment as to whether or not he's a great player, or just had a great year.
BTW, the team record has nothing to do with the MVP either. Just sayin.
I think cabrera is going to win, even though I think Trout should win. Trout just completed the best rookie season in MLB history. Pretty safe assumption that he is going to be a superstar. You could argue that he's already the best player in baseball (I think he is).
Keith Law explains it well...
I argued in late June that Mike Trout had the early look, statistically speaking, of an MVP candidate, because he was such a complete player, contributing in all facets of the game. That MVP race has turned out to be a rout, with Trout nearly lapping the field in value, though that hasn't stopped a portion of the media and the fan base, largely situated in a certain state that borders four Great Lakes, from arguing in favor of another candidate, Miguel Cabrera.
The Luddite argument -- and don't kid yourself, that's what this is, a backlash against progress -- says that wins above replacement isn't reliable, or credible, or accurate enough to use in an MVP discussion. So while Trout destroys all of his competition in WAR, whether you use FanGraphs' version (a lead of 2.6 wins) or Baseball Reference's (a lead of 3.7), it might be more convincing to consider just why Trout's lead is so commanding.
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Gary A. Vasquez/US Presswire
When choosing an MVP, you need to consider more than just hitting stats.The reactionary campaign for Cabrera right now focuses primarily on his offensive output, and if you look only at the raw, unadjusted stats, he does have a slight edge over Trout. The two players are in a dead heat in OBP, with Cabrera just .001 ahead (.395 to .394) while holding a 58-point (.060) advantage in slugging percentage, equal to roughly 40 total bases during the course of a full season.
Cabrera also has about three weeks of additional playing time over Trout, who inexplicably started the season in Triple-A to free up playing time for Vernon Wells. If offense was the entire story, Cabrera would be the MVP, holding a lead of about half a win of value over Trout once we adjust for their ballparks, because Comerica Park is a better park for hitters than Angel Stadium is.
Of course, we live in 2012, an era in which any rational observer of the game should realize that there's a lot more to a position player's value than just what he provides with his bat. The most obvious aspect is defense, something we're only beginning to measure accurately but can at least quantify at a level beyond the useless stat of fielding percentage. FanGraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating to try to measure defensive value, looking at all balls in play in that fielder's area and assigning them positive or negative run values based on how often balls hit that way were fielded, and if they weren't, what the typical damage was to the fielder's team. UZR has Trout saving 12 runs over an average center fielder this year, plus another net run saved in left and right, for a total of 13 runs saved; it has Cabrera costing the Tigers a little more than nine runs compared to an average third baseman.
The Defensive Runs Saved metric, from Baseball Information Solutions, is even more favorable to Trout, giving him credit for 25 runs saved while rating Cabrera at four runs cost. (DRS is what is factored into Baseball Reference's version of WAR.) I prefer the UZR method, but both results match the eye test as well: Trout's a plus defender, and Cabrera is at best a below-average defender (and more likely a poor one). The defensive value difference between Trout and Cabera is something on the order of two full wins, if not more.
Players add value through their baserunning. Trout has stolen 46 bases in 50 attempts, and because the break-even rate is somewhere in the 70 to 75 percent range, that is a significant net gain for the Angels, and he's added another six runs on the bases independent of his base-stealing prowess. Cabrera, on the other hand, has stolen four bases and been caught once, while his baserunning has cost the Tigers just under 3 runs. (The baserunning numbers also are drawn from FanGraphs, and include things like taking an extra base on a batted ball or advancing on a fly ball or groundout.)
Baseball Prospectus also produces baserunning numbers, including stolen base value and other baserunning events in a single number, giving Trout a net gain of 10.4 runs and Cabrera a net loss of 4.9 runs. Again, you might disagree with the precise figures, but there is no disputing that Trout has been substantially more valuable on the bases than Cabrera, on the order of over a full win.
There's a little more work to do, but even at this point, it should be obvious why Trout has been much more valuable than Cabrera, and this why there is such a large gap in their respective WAR. Cabrera's small edge in offense is wiped out by Trout's value on defense and on the bases. Trout even gets a small bump for playing center, a position where replacement level -- that is, the expected offensive production of a generic player called up from Triple-A to fill that role -- is slightly lower than it is at third base.
And WAR doesn't consider the quality of competition, a factor that also favors Trout, who has faced more difficult pitching than Cabrera this year. Miggy has particularly feasted on the two worst pitching staffs in the league in 2012, Cleveland and Minnesota, slugging .742 against those two clubs in 132 at-bats. Trout has just a third as many at bats against those clubs, but has spent more time facing the A's, Mariners, and Rangers, all above the league median in ERA.
Counterarguments
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Dave Reginek/Getty Images
No matter how you slice it, Cabrera's defense is hurting the Tigers.But Trout's a rookie!
This is a classic red herring argument -- arguing a premise that doesn't support the conclusion. The MVP award is a single-season award, and rookies are every bit as eligible as veterans with 10 years or more in the league. Nothing that happened prior to 2012 should carry any weight whatsoever in MVP voting: not past performance, not All-Star appearances, not service time, nothing.
A corollary to this argument is that Trout hasn't played a full season, and the MVP criteria do specifically say that voters may consider games played as a factor on their ballots. However, Trout has been so productive on a per game basis that his overall value this season still dwarfs that provided by Cabrera.
With that in hand, let's consider some of the major counterarguments that Cabrera supporters use to claim that he should win the award over Trout.
But Cabrera may win the Triple Crown, so he's the MVP!
This is begging the question: It assumes that the Triple Crown is an accurate measure of value, which it's not. Here's a short list of important factors not covered by the Triple Crown categories: Walks, the added value of doubles and triples, stolen bases, other aspects of baserunning, defensive value, positional value, park effects -- in other words, huge swaths of the game that are completely ignored.
Triple Crown is cute, but there's something very arbitrary and dated about its categories, an anachronistic way to look at the game that is wildly out of tune with how front offices look at players today. Once you realize, as you must, that a player who wins the Triple Crown has not necessarily delivered the most value, this argument evaporates.
The main corollary to the Triple Crown argument is that players who win this honor typically win the MVP award. That's not universally true -- Ted Williams twice won the Triple Crown and finished second in the MVP vote -- but even if it were true in all previous cases, it is a classic argument from tradition: We've always done it this way, therefore it's right. If you believe this still applies to Cabrera, I assume that the next time you're sick, you'll ask your doctor to bleed you with leeches.
But Cabrera's been better in August and September!
This is argument-by-selective observation, better known as "cherry-picking" -- utilizing a favorable subset of the available data while ignoring all other information. It's also presented in a misleading fashion, as Trout's less-productive stretch has only lasted a few weeks. After he homered on August 28, Trout's line for August sat at .301/.378/.544; since that date, he's hit .242/.355/.374, a weak stretch by his standards but not enough to drag down his seasonal numbers.
This argument also relies on a bogus assumption, that games late in the season are more important than those early in the season. I've checked the standings, and have concluded that a win in April is worth as much as a win in September. The Los Angeles Dodgers are still in the playoff race primarily because of a hot April; they're sub-.500 since May 1 The Orioles have been slightly over .500 since finishing their first series with Washington on May 20, at which point they were 27-15, and that will likely be enough to put them in the playoffs. Winning in September feels more important than winning in April or May, but that is not actually true.
But Cabrera's been better in the clutch!
Again, more cherry-picking. When applied properly, the fundamental problem with this argument for Cabrera supporters is that it supports the guy they're trying to discredit: By win probability added (WPA), a stat that weights each plate appearance and result by the impact it had on the team's probability of winning that particular game, Trout has done more to add to his team's chances to win than any other player in baseball. Cabrera has been better in "late and close" situations, but those represent such a tiny fraction of each player's season that it's nonsense to base an MVP vote on those while ignoring the approximately 85 percent of the season not reflected in that small-sample stat line.
But WAR is a new-age stat for geeks who don't know baseball!
Let's be honest here, this is the real argument that non-Tigers fans are making about Trout. On its face, these comments are ad hominem arguments: rather than dispute the facts, some Cabrera partisans who use these terms are focusing on the person arguing for Trout, rather than on Trout's credentials. But really, nothing could be less "new age" than a thorough, rational metric, unless WAR was secretly developed by Yanni in his mother's basement.
The false Trout/Cabrera debate, stripped of Tigers and Angels fans, is just the latest in the ongoing battle between two camps in the baseball media, one of which has seen its longtime primacy usurped by new writers, mostly younger, who look at the game in different ways and have more in common with successful front offices.
Once upon a time, fans like you and me relied on a small number of writers and reporters to deliver baseball news and interpret it for us. Today, we have a panoply of voices offering different perspectives, some more rational than others, and the dedicated fan is better able to interpret baseball news and events for himself.
The pro-Cabrera camp in the voting pool may win this battle and rob Trout of the MVP award he clearly deserves, but the war over WAR and its statistical brethren is already over. The philosophy behind these advanced statistics and the way they inform our views of the game is here to stay, and although the fairy-tale scout Gus Lobel doesn't have to adapt, in this world, he'd have to retire, or he'd have to get on that computer and figure out how to reconcile what he wants to believe with what the facts before him say.
Any player that wins the Triple Crown deserves the MVP(I know that hasn't been the case in the past), if for the only reason it hasn't happened for 40 years so it's practically unheard of. For as long as I've been watching baseball, there's been no more than a few legit Triple Crown contenders at a time and everyone of them has failed for practically twice my lifespan.
If he was doing it on a team that ended up in last place, I could even see some argument against it, but the guy has been doing it with pressure on him from a team and individual standpoint. Not to take anything away from Trout, but the Triple Crown is pretty hallowed ground and he has fallen off the last month or so for a team chasing a playoff spot when Cabrera has thrived.
I respectfully disagree. Cabrera has done better at 3rd base than I think anyone expected. This is Trouts first year (which I know has nothing to do with the MVP award), and a great one at that, but there have been a lot of "break out" players that have never been heard from again. I reserve judgment as to whether or not he's a great player, or just had a great year.
BTW, the team record has nothing to do with the MVP either. Just sayin.
I think cabrera is going to win, even though I think Trout should win. Trout just completed the best rookie season in MLB history. Pretty safe assumption that he is going to be a superstar. You could argue that he's already the best player in baseball (I think he is).
Keith Law explains it well...
I argued in late June that Mike Trout had the early look, blah blah blah...
It's pretty obvious that writer is, and has been, in the Trout camp. It's also pretty clear that he could determine the rank of every player in the league without ever watching a game. :roll:
I'm just not quite sure how using formulas can determine that a player in the outfield is better defensively than a player in the infield. Not to mention the fact that Miguel moved to the position ONLY so Prince Fielder could join the team...
Also while LAA had a better record, aren't they out of contention? Whether right or wrong, I think historically that's usually factored into the decision.
I tend to agree that a player that gets his team to the playoffs, as opposed to a guy who doesn't, may make him a more viable candidate.
But whatever...I have no vote, and I think Cabrera will win it anyway.
Carry on.
:corn:
Any player that wins the Triple Crown deserves the MVP(I know that hasn't been the case in the past), if for the only reason it hasn't happened for 40 years so it's practically unheard of. For as long as I've been watching baseball, there's been no more than a few legit Triple Crown contenders at a time and everyone of them has failed for practically twice my lifespan.
If he was doing it on a team that ended up in last place, I could even see some argument against it, but the guy has been doing it with pressure on him from a team and individual standpoint. Not to take anything away from Trout, but the Triple Crown is pretty hallowed ground and he has fallen off the last month or so for a team chasing a playoff spot when Cabrera has thrived.
I don't understand the resistance to newer stats that show a more complete picture of a players value. WAR is not a perfect stat, but it is far more telling than stats that have been around since the turn of the 19th century. Offense is only one facet of baseball.
This is a good summary of the two players value during 2012.
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
I have certain rules I live by ... My First Rule ... I don't believe anything the government tells me ... George Carlin
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
The A.L. West all comes down to the final day game tomorrow between Texas and Oakland. I'm hoping the A's can pull this off and keep this hot streak going.
Tell the captain 'This boats not safe And we're drowning.'
The A.L. West all comes down to the final day game tomorrow between Texas and Oakland. I'm hoping the A's can pull this off and keep this hot streak going.
That's going to be exciting, along with the AL East.
Shows: 6.27.08 Hartford, CT/5.15.10 Hartford, CT/6.18.2011 Hartford, CT (EV Solo)/10.19.13 Brooklyn/10.25.13 Hartford
"Becoming a Bruce fan is like hitting puberty as a musical fan. It's inevitable." - dcfaithful
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
i understand both sides of the argument. i don't really care who wins the mvp.
but the triple crown is absolutely is special. it's been 45 years since someone accomplished that feat. i understand people love all the new age stats and stuff and some of them are very useful. but to me, baseball more than any other sport, is meant to be romanticized and to have it's history embraced. yastrzemski, mantle, williams, gehrig, fox, kein, hornsby, cobb (fucking ty cobb!) are the names you associate with this. so of course it's special, and to demean it is ridiculous and petty. i remember, as a kid, being excited over gary sheffield making a run for it back in '92 (i think that was the year).
so assuming he holds on, congrats to cabrera on a truly remarkable feat.
Hoping the A's and O's can somehow win their divisions.
Alpine Valley 6/26/98, Alpine Valley 10/8/00, Champaign 4/23/03, Chicago 6/18/03, Alpine Valley 6/21/03, Grand Rapids 10/3/04
Chicago 5/16/06, Chicago 5/17/06, Grand Rapids 5/19/06
Milwaukee 6/29/06, Milwaukee 6/30/06, Lollapalooza 8/5/07
Eddie Solo Milwaukee 8/19/08, Toronto 8/21/09, Chicago 8/23/09
Chicago 8/24/09, Indianapolis 5/7/10, Ed Chicago 6/29/11, Alpine Valley 9/3/11 and 9/4/11, Wrigley 7/19/13, Moline 10/18/14, Milwaukee 10/20/14
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
yeah, penalize trout for playing better teams all year AND leading his team to a better record
The A.L. West all comes down to the final day game tomorrow between Texas and Oakland. I'm hoping the A's can pull this off and keep this hot streak going.
This series has been awesome. Today's game is especially nuts.
One of the byproducts of the heated debate that's unfolded over this year's AL MVP is the validity of Wins Above Replacement. If you want a detailed discussion of what WAR is and what its strengths and flaws are, read this or this. We will not be using WAR to explain why Mike Trout is the American League's most valuable player.
Let's start with Trout's hitting. Miguel Cabrera has been lauded for his terrific offensive season, and rightfully so. Heading into Tuesday's games, Cabrera led the league with a .331 batting average, ranked fourth with a .394 on-base percentage, and led the league by slugging .608. Thing is, Trout's raw hitting numbers aren't far off Cabrera's. His .324 batting average trails only Cabrera. His .397 OBP places him third in the league, just ahead of Cabrera. And his .561 slugging average trails only Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.
Baseball isn't basketball, though; the dimensions of every field differ, and weather conditions can also play a significant role in either helping or suppressing offense. Using ESPN's park factors, whether for 2012 alone or factoring in 2010 and 2011 results to produce a three-year comparison, we can see that Comerica Park gives hitters a moderate boost. Angel Stadium, on the other hand, has ranked as the fourth-worst park for hitters in each of the past three years. If we want to even out those differences in park effects, there are stats that do that. One such stat is called OPS+. OPS, as you probably know, is the sum of on-base percentage and slugging average. It's an imperfect metric in that it assumes equal value for OBP and slugging, when in fact getting on base (and not making outs) has been shown to be a more useful skill for creating runs. Thus using OPS, or OPS+, which takes that stat and adjusts for park and league effects, should favor Cabrera, the better slugger, over Trout, the slightly better on-base guy.
Trout leads the AL with a 169 OPS+. Cabrera ranks second at 167. If you'd prefer to use a stat that places more appropriate value on OBP vs. slugging (but does not adjust for park differences, which should favor Cabrera), we can use Weighted On Base Average (wOBA). Through Monday, Trout led the AL with a .421 wOBA; Cabrera was second at .417. (Trout also leads Cabrera in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), a stat that more accurately weights OBP vs. slugging and adjusts for park and league effects. But it also includes stolen bases and caught-stealing totals, and we want to focus on hitting only for now.) In other words, on a per-at-bat basis, you could argue that Trout has been a better hitter this season than Cabrera.
This isn't meant to diminish Cabrera's own excellent season. The Angels waited nearly a month to call up Trout from the minors, allowing Cabrera to play 22 more games than the Angels center fielder. Which means that Cabrera's bat has been worth more to the Tigers, overall, than Trout's has to the Halos. The idea here is merely to remind you that Trout has been a terrific hitter this year in his own right, at the very least in the same ballpark as Cabrera.
And Trout absolutely annihilates Cabrera with his legs and his glove.
Trout leads the league with 49 stolen bases, to Cabrera's four. Stolen bases have fallen out of favor over the past 20 years, understandably so given the simultaneous rise in power numbers. But a player who steals a lot of bases and rarely gets caught can still be a valuable asset to his team. While swiping 49 bags, Trout has been caught only four times, for a success rate of 92 percent. To put that in perspective, the breakeven rate for a player to steal bases without hurting his team by making too many outs is a little over 70 percent. Using FanGraphs' Base Running Runs stat, we see that Trout leads all of baseball by a wide margin, having produced nearly seven runs of value for the Angels just by virtue of his taking extra bases in non-steal situations. If we combine Trout's base-stealing prowess with those extra bases in non-steal spots, he's been worth nearly 10 runs to his team. (By comparison, Cabrera has cost his team at least two runs with his legs, depending on the metric you use.) Put another way, Trout wins one game for the Angels this year on aggregate just with his legs — before we get to his bat or his glove.
That glove has been phenomenal by any measure. If you want to use UZR, Trout's saved more than 13 runs this season, placing him sixth among all AL players, despite Trout spending most of April in the minors. If you prefer Baseball-Reference.com metrics, Trout's 22 Defensive Runs Saved also rank among baseball's super-elite. Read this post from ESPN Stats & Info if you want a more detailed look at how Trout saves so many runs in the outfield. (If you want to turn off your analysis switch for a second, feel free to view any of Trout's four home-run robberies this season, including this all-timer off J.J. Hardy.) You can call Cabrera selfless or noble or anything else for moving to third base when Prince Fielder signed. But the bottom line is that he's cost his team more than nine runs (nearly one full win) by UZR, and four by DRS.
Add it all up and, without the benefit of WAR or any other catchall stat, Trout comes out well ahead.
Before we move on to the other awards, a few "But What About?!" questions:
But what about the first Triple Crown in 45 years?
Great accomplishment. But the award recognizes the most valuable player, not the most valuable hitter, and Trout's vastly superior baserunning and defense trumps Cabrera's moderate offensive advantage. Moreover, the Triple Crown only looks at three measures of offense, one of them highly team-dependent (runs batted in). It tells us nothing about Cabrera's walks, singles, doubles, triples, steals, times grounding into double plays, or any number of other stats. Yelling "Triple Crown!" and dropping a metaphorical mic is not a cogent argument.
But what about Cabrera going off in September, while Trout cooled down?
One win counts for one win in April, May, June, July, August, or September. But if you want to try to ascribe higher leverage to September at-bats the way you would ninth-inning at-bats in tie games, sure, go ahead.
But what about Cabrera leading his team to the playoffs, while Trout led his team to the golf course?
Leaving aside the Angels' superior record in a much tougher division, the teammates your general manager picks for you should have no bearing on a player's value. Trout did more this year to help his team win than did Cabrera (or anyone else, including Robinson Cano, who's had a hell of a year and could be argued to have produced about as much value as Cabrera, maybe even a little more) and Adrian Beltre (another candidate with value comparable to Cabrera's who's not coming up in the main Trout vs. Cabrera debate). He is therefore the league's most valuable player.
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
i understand both sides of the argument. i don't really care who wins the mvp.
but the triple crown is absolutely is special. it's been 45 years since someone accomplished that feat. i understand people love all the new age stats and stuff and some of them are very useful. but to me, baseball more than any other sport, is meant to be romanticized and to have it's history embraced. yastrzemski, mantle, williams, gehrig, fox, kein, hornsby, cobb (fucking ty cobb!) are the names you associate with this. so of course it's special, and to demean it is ridiculous and petty. i remember, as a kid, being excited over gary sheffield making a run for it back in '92 (i think that was the year).
so assuming he holds on, congrats to cabrera on a truly remarkable feat.
I have to agree with you there ... something special about the triple crown ... I think its only been accomplished 13 times and no one in 45 years.
Post edited by lukin2006 on
I have certain rules I live by ... My First Rule ... I don't believe anything the government tells me ... George Carlin
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
yeah, penalize trout for playing better teams all year AND leading his team to a better record
great argument
I'm not penalizing Trout for playing on better teams ... lots of other great players have played similar schedules or in easier divisions and didn't accomplish the feat ... and Cabrera hasn't yet either ... but if he does accomplish he deserves the MVP.
Jim Leyland: ‘There Is No Flaw In The Miguel Cabrera Season’
Cabrera wins triple crown or not he should be MVP...I do know this if the tigers don't have Cabrera they do not make the playoffs...and the Angels have Trout and they don't make the playoffs.
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
yeah, penalize trout for playing better teams all year AND leading his team to a better record
great argument
I'm not penalizing Trout for playing on better teams ... lots of other great players have played similar schedules or in easier divisions and didn't accomplish the feat ... and Cabrera hasn't yet either ... but if he does accomplish he deserves the MVP.
Jim Leyland: ‘There Is No Flaw In The Miguel Cabrera Season’
1.Triple Crown
2. Team in playoffs
3 Performing in September
1 - doesn't mean he had a better year than trout
2 - trout's team had a better record
3 - so did trout...also, season is six months long, not one
1. No, but he had a historically monumental year. People are gonna remember that Cabrera won the Triple Crown. They might remember that Trout had an epic rookie year, but they're not gonna remember the ins and outs of it.
2. Sure, but he didn't elevate his team to do what it had to do to continue playing after today.
3. Where was Trout when his team needed him most? Finishing behind the 2x defending AL champs is nothing to be ashamed of, but they couldn't even overcome the A's. They're likely in the same position with or without him.
yeah, penalize trout for playing better teams all year AND leading his team to a better record
great argument
I'm not penalizing Trout for playing on better teams ... lots of other great players have played similar schedules or in easier divisions and didn't accomplish the feat ... and Cabrera hasn't yet either ... but if he does accomplish he deserves the MVP.
Jim Leyland: ‘There Is No Flaw In The Miguel Cabrera Season’
so he deserves the award for being marginally better at the plate...and severely deficient (compared to trout) in all other aspects??
We're not comparing anyone to lots of other great players...we are comparing trout and cabrera
I don't see how that makes sense
No he also deserves the award because he far more than marginally better at the plate than Trout down the stretch. I know Cabrera was responsible for more than a few wins in September that pushed them passed Chicago.
Cabrera had a considerably better September...maybe if Trout had contributed the way Miggy had in the final month even final 2 months the Angels are in the playoffs. So winning the triple crown combined with Miggy making a major contribution down the stretch should earn him MVP.
I have certain rules I live by ... My First Rule ... I don't believe anything the government tells me ... George Carlin
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
Comments
Are you talking about baseball??? Or fishing? :?
You must not have seen all the players in the league answer this question over the last couple weeks...
It's been 45 years since anyone has taken the triple crown...
Dope smoking..........Maybe, but I really don't think that has anything to do with the numbers...
Trout had a great year, just not quite as good as Miggy.
there's a reason the players don't vote. not the brightest bulbs.
cabrera is a great hitter (one phase of baseball). trout is a great player (all phases of baseball).
also, the angels were a better team this year.
I love cabrera, he's a booze hound. I hope he makes a run at the all time HR record. Trout had the better year though, regardless of triple crown or not
BTW, the team record has nothing to do with the MVP either. Just sayin.
I think cabrera is going to win, even though I think Trout should win. Trout just completed the best rookie season in MLB history. Pretty safe assumption that he is going to be a superstar. You could argue that he's already the best player in baseball (I think he is).
Keith Law explains it well...
I argued in late June that Mike Trout had the early look, statistically speaking, of an MVP candidate, because he was such a complete player, contributing in all facets of the game. That MVP race has turned out to be a rout, with Trout nearly lapping the field in value, though that hasn't stopped a portion of the media and the fan base, largely situated in a certain state that borders four Great Lakes, from arguing in favor of another candidate, Miguel Cabrera.
The Luddite argument -- and don't kid yourself, that's what this is, a backlash against progress -- says that wins above replacement isn't reliable, or credible, or accurate enough to use in an MVP discussion. So while Trout destroys all of his competition in WAR, whether you use FanGraphs' version (a lead of 2.6 wins) or Baseball Reference's (a lead of 3.7), it might be more convincing to consider just why Trout's lead is so commanding.
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Gary A. Vasquez/US Presswire
When choosing an MVP, you need to consider more than just hitting stats.The reactionary campaign for Cabrera right now focuses primarily on his offensive output, and if you look only at the raw, unadjusted stats, he does have a slight edge over Trout. The two players are in a dead heat in OBP, with Cabrera just .001 ahead (.395 to .394) while holding a 58-point (.060) advantage in slugging percentage, equal to roughly 40 total bases during the course of a full season.
Cabrera also has about three weeks of additional playing time over Trout, who inexplicably started the season in Triple-A to free up playing time for Vernon Wells. If offense was the entire story, Cabrera would be the MVP, holding a lead of about half a win of value over Trout once we adjust for their ballparks, because Comerica Park is a better park for hitters than Angel Stadium is.
Of course, we live in 2012, an era in which any rational observer of the game should realize that there's a lot more to a position player's value than just what he provides with his bat. The most obvious aspect is defense, something we're only beginning to measure accurately but can at least quantify at a level beyond the useless stat of fielding percentage. FanGraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating to try to measure defensive value, looking at all balls in play in that fielder's area and assigning them positive or negative run values based on how often balls hit that way were fielded, and if they weren't, what the typical damage was to the fielder's team. UZR has Trout saving 12 runs over an average center fielder this year, plus another net run saved in left and right, for a total of 13 runs saved; it has Cabrera costing the Tigers a little more than nine runs compared to an average third baseman.
The Defensive Runs Saved metric, from Baseball Information Solutions, is even more favorable to Trout, giving him credit for 25 runs saved while rating Cabrera at four runs cost. (DRS is what is factored into Baseball Reference's version of WAR.) I prefer the UZR method, but both results match the eye test as well: Trout's a plus defender, and Cabrera is at best a below-average defender (and more likely a poor one). The defensive value difference between Trout and Cabera is something on the order of two full wins, if not more.
Players add value through their baserunning. Trout has stolen 46 bases in 50 attempts, and because the break-even rate is somewhere in the 70 to 75 percent range, that is a significant net gain for the Angels, and he's added another six runs on the bases independent of his base-stealing prowess. Cabrera, on the other hand, has stolen four bases and been caught once, while his baserunning has cost the Tigers just under 3 runs. (The baserunning numbers also are drawn from FanGraphs, and include things like taking an extra base on a batted ball or advancing on a fly ball or groundout.)
Baseball Prospectus also produces baserunning numbers, including stolen base value and other baserunning events in a single number, giving Trout a net gain of 10.4 runs and Cabrera a net loss of 4.9 runs. Again, you might disagree with the precise figures, but there is no disputing that Trout has been substantially more valuable on the bases than Cabrera, on the order of over a full win.
There's a little more work to do, but even at this point, it should be obvious why Trout has been much more valuable than Cabrera, and this why there is such a large gap in their respective WAR. Cabrera's small edge in offense is wiped out by Trout's value on defense and on the bases. Trout even gets a small bump for playing center, a position where replacement level -- that is, the expected offensive production of a generic player called up from Triple-A to fill that role -- is slightly lower than it is at third base.
And WAR doesn't consider the quality of competition, a factor that also favors Trout, who has faced more difficult pitching than Cabrera this year. Miggy has particularly feasted on the two worst pitching staffs in the league in 2012, Cleveland and Minnesota, slugging .742 against those two clubs in 132 at-bats. Trout has just a third as many at bats against those clubs, but has spent more time facing the A's, Mariners, and Rangers, all above the league median in ERA.
Counterarguments
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Dave Reginek/Getty Images
No matter how you slice it, Cabrera's defense is hurting the Tigers.But Trout's a rookie!
This is a classic red herring argument -- arguing a premise that doesn't support the conclusion. The MVP award is a single-season award, and rookies are every bit as eligible as veterans with 10 years or more in the league. Nothing that happened prior to 2012 should carry any weight whatsoever in MVP voting: not past performance, not All-Star appearances, not service time, nothing.
A corollary to this argument is that Trout hasn't played a full season, and the MVP criteria do specifically say that voters may consider games played as a factor on their ballots. However, Trout has been so productive on a per game basis that his overall value this season still dwarfs that provided by Cabrera.
With that in hand, let's consider some of the major counterarguments that Cabrera supporters use to claim that he should win the award over Trout.
But Cabrera may win the Triple Crown, so he's the MVP!
This is begging the question: It assumes that the Triple Crown is an accurate measure of value, which it's not. Here's a short list of important factors not covered by the Triple Crown categories: Walks, the added value of doubles and triples, stolen bases, other aspects of baserunning, defensive value, positional value, park effects -- in other words, huge swaths of the game that are completely ignored.
Triple Crown is cute, but there's something very arbitrary and dated about its categories, an anachronistic way to look at the game that is wildly out of tune with how front offices look at players today. Once you realize, as you must, that a player who wins the Triple Crown has not necessarily delivered the most value, this argument evaporates.
The main corollary to the Triple Crown argument is that players who win this honor typically win the MVP award. That's not universally true -- Ted Williams twice won the Triple Crown and finished second in the MVP vote -- but even if it were true in all previous cases, it is a classic argument from tradition: We've always done it this way, therefore it's right. If you believe this still applies to Cabrera, I assume that the next time you're sick, you'll ask your doctor to bleed you with leeches.
But Cabrera's been better in August and September!
This is argument-by-selective observation, better known as "cherry-picking" -- utilizing a favorable subset of the available data while ignoring all other information. It's also presented in a misleading fashion, as Trout's less-productive stretch has only lasted a few weeks. After he homered on August 28, Trout's line for August sat at .301/.378/.544; since that date, he's hit .242/.355/.374, a weak stretch by his standards but not enough to drag down his seasonal numbers.
This argument also relies on a bogus assumption, that games late in the season are more important than those early in the season. I've checked the standings, and have concluded that a win in April is worth as much as a win in September. The Los Angeles Dodgers are still in the playoff race primarily because of a hot April; they're sub-.500 since May 1 The Orioles have been slightly over .500 since finishing their first series with Washington on May 20, at which point they were 27-15, and that will likely be enough to put them in the playoffs. Winning in September feels more important than winning in April or May, but that is not actually true.
But Cabrera's been better in the clutch!
Again, more cherry-picking. When applied properly, the fundamental problem with this argument for Cabrera supporters is that it supports the guy they're trying to discredit: By win probability added (WPA), a stat that weights each plate appearance and result by the impact it had on the team's probability of winning that particular game, Trout has done more to add to his team's chances to win than any other player in baseball. Cabrera has been better in "late and close" situations, but those represent such a tiny fraction of each player's season that it's nonsense to base an MVP vote on those while ignoring the approximately 85 percent of the season not reflected in that small-sample stat line.
But WAR is a new-age stat for geeks who don't know baseball!
Let's be honest here, this is the real argument that non-Tigers fans are making about Trout. On its face, these comments are ad hominem arguments: rather than dispute the facts, some Cabrera partisans who use these terms are focusing on the person arguing for Trout, rather than on Trout's credentials. But really, nothing could be less "new age" than a thorough, rational metric, unless WAR was secretly developed by Yanni in his mother's basement.
The false Trout/Cabrera debate, stripped of Tigers and Angels fans, is just the latest in the ongoing battle between two camps in the baseball media, one of which has seen its longtime primacy usurped by new writers, mostly younger, who look at the game in different ways and have more in common with successful front offices.
Once upon a time, fans like you and me relied on a small number of writers and reporters to deliver baseball news and interpret it for us. Today, we have a panoply of voices offering different perspectives, some more rational than others, and the dedicated fan is better able to interpret baseball news and events for himself.
The pro-Cabrera camp in the voting pool may win this battle and rob Trout of the MVP award he clearly deserves, but the war over WAR and its statistical brethren is already over. The philosophy behind these advanced statistics and the way they inform our views of the game is here to stay, and although the fairy-tale scout Gus Lobel doesn't have to adapt, in this world, he'd have to retire, or he'd have to get on that computer and figure out how to reconcile what he wants to believe with what the facts before him say.
If he was doing it on a team that ended up in last place, I could even see some argument against it, but the guy has been doing it with pressure on him from a team and individual standpoint. Not to take anything away from Trout, but the Triple Crown is pretty hallowed ground and he has fallen off the last month or so for a team chasing a playoff spot when Cabrera has thrived.
It's pretty obvious that writer is, and has been, in the Trout camp. It's also pretty clear that he could determine the rank of every player in the league without ever watching a game. :roll:
I'm just not quite sure how using formulas can determine that a player in the outfield is better defensively than a player in the infield. Not to mention the fact that Miguel moved to the position ONLY so Prince Fielder could join the team...
Also while LAA had a better record, aren't they out of contention? Whether right or wrong, I think historically that's usually factored into the decision.
I tend to agree that a player that gets his team to the playoffs, as opposed to a guy who doesn't, may make him a more viable candidate.
But whatever...I have no vote, and I think Cabrera will win it anyway.
Carry on.
:corn:
:thumbup:
This is a good summary of the two players value during 2012.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... retch-run/
Bottom line...Cabrera is a great hitter but he can't help his team the way trout can
I know the Angels play in a tougher division...yada, yada, yada....for money money the triple crown has to be special...not 1 player has done it in 45 years.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
'This boats not safe
And we're drowning.'
"Becoming a Bruce fan is like hitting puberty as a musical fan. It's inevitable." - dcfaithful
Should be a good night of baseball tonight. Don't know if I can watch though...still trying to recover from the White Sox collapse. :fp:
i understand both sides of the argument. i don't really care who wins the mvp.
but the triple crown is absolutely is special. it's been 45 years since someone accomplished that feat. i understand people love all the new age stats and stuff and some of them are very useful. but to me, baseball more than any other sport, is meant to be romanticized and to have it's history embraced. yastrzemski, mantle, williams, gehrig, fox, kein, hornsby, cobb (fucking ty cobb!) are the names you associate with this. so of course it's special, and to demean it is ridiculous and petty. i remember, as a kid, being excited over gary sheffield making a run for it back in '92 (i think that was the year).
so assuming he holds on, congrats to cabrera on a truly remarkable feat.
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Chicago 8/24/09, Indianapolis 5/7/10, Ed Chicago 6/29/11, Alpine Valley 9/3/11 and 9/4/11, Wrigley 7/19/13, Moline 10/18/14, Milwaukee 10/20/14
yeah, penalize trout for playing better teams all year AND leading his team to a better record
great argument
This series has been awesome. Today's game is especially nuts.
MLB is the best
3 pitches
WOW
One of the byproducts of the heated debate that's unfolded over this year's AL MVP is the validity of Wins Above Replacement. If you want a detailed discussion of what WAR is and what its strengths and flaws are, read this or this. We will not be using WAR to explain why Mike Trout is the American League's most valuable player.
Let's start with Trout's hitting. Miguel Cabrera has been lauded for his terrific offensive season, and rightfully so. Heading into Tuesday's games, Cabrera led the league with a .331 batting average, ranked fourth with a .394 on-base percentage, and led the league by slugging .608. Thing is, Trout's raw hitting numbers aren't far off Cabrera's. His .324 batting average trails only Cabrera. His .397 OBP places him third in the league, just ahead of Cabrera. And his .561 slugging average trails only Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.
Baseball isn't basketball, though; the dimensions of every field differ, and weather conditions can also play a significant role in either helping or suppressing offense. Using ESPN's park factors, whether for 2012 alone or factoring in 2010 and 2011 results to produce a three-year comparison, we can see that Comerica Park gives hitters a moderate boost. Angel Stadium, on the other hand, has ranked as the fourth-worst park for hitters in each of the past three years. If we want to even out those differences in park effects, there are stats that do that. One such stat is called OPS+. OPS, as you probably know, is the sum of on-base percentage and slugging average. It's an imperfect metric in that it assumes equal value for OBP and slugging, when in fact getting on base (and not making outs) has been shown to be a more useful skill for creating runs. Thus using OPS, or OPS+, which takes that stat and adjusts for park and league effects, should favor Cabrera, the better slugger, over Trout, the slightly better on-base guy.
Trout leads the AL with a 169 OPS+. Cabrera ranks second at 167. If you'd prefer to use a stat that places more appropriate value on OBP vs. slugging (but does not adjust for park differences, which should favor Cabrera), we can use Weighted On Base Average (wOBA). Through Monday, Trout led the AL with a .421 wOBA; Cabrera was second at .417. (Trout also leads Cabrera in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), a stat that more accurately weights OBP vs. slugging and adjusts for park and league effects. But it also includes stolen bases and caught-stealing totals, and we want to focus on hitting only for now.) In other words, on a per-at-bat basis, you could argue that Trout has been a better hitter this season than Cabrera.
This isn't meant to diminish Cabrera's own excellent season. The Angels waited nearly a month to call up Trout from the minors, allowing Cabrera to play 22 more games than the Angels center fielder. Which means that Cabrera's bat has been worth more to the Tigers, overall, than Trout's has to the Halos. The idea here is merely to remind you that Trout has been a terrific hitter this year in his own right, at the very least in the same ballpark as Cabrera.
And Trout absolutely annihilates Cabrera with his legs and his glove.
Trout leads the league with 49 stolen bases, to Cabrera's four. Stolen bases have fallen out of favor over the past 20 years, understandably so given the simultaneous rise in power numbers. But a player who steals a lot of bases and rarely gets caught can still be a valuable asset to his team. While swiping 49 bags, Trout has been caught only four times, for a success rate of 92 percent. To put that in perspective, the breakeven rate for a player to steal bases without hurting his team by making too many outs is a little over 70 percent. Using FanGraphs' Base Running Runs stat, we see that Trout leads all of baseball by a wide margin, having produced nearly seven runs of value for the Angels just by virtue of his taking extra bases in non-steal situations. If we combine Trout's base-stealing prowess with those extra bases in non-steal spots, he's been worth nearly 10 runs to his team. (By comparison, Cabrera has cost his team at least two runs with his legs, depending on the metric you use.) Put another way, Trout wins one game for the Angels this year on aggregate just with his legs — before we get to his bat or his glove.
That glove has been phenomenal by any measure. If you want to use UZR, Trout's saved more than 13 runs this season, placing him sixth among all AL players, despite Trout spending most of April in the minors. If you prefer Baseball-Reference.com metrics, Trout's 22 Defensive Runs Saved also rank among baseball's super-elite. Read this post from ESPN Stats & Info if you want a more detailed look at how Trout saves so many runs in the outfield. (If you want to turn off your analysis switch for a second, feel free to view any of Trout's four home-run robberies this season, including this all-timer off J.J. Hardy.) You can call Cabrera selfless or noble or anything else for moving to third base when Prince Fielder signed. But the bottom line is that he's cost his team more than nine runs (nearly one full win) by UZR, and four by DRS.
Add it all up and, without the benefit of WAR or any other catchall stat, Trout comes out well ahead.
Before we move on to the other awards, a few "But What About?!" questions:
But what about the first Triple Crown in 45 years?
Great accomplishment. But the award recognizes the most valuable player, not the most valuable hitter, and Trout's vastly superior baserunning and defense trumps Cabrera's moderate offensive advantage. Moreover, the Triple Crown only looks at three measures of offense, one of them highly team-dependent (runs batted in). It tells us nothing about Cabrera's walks, singles, doubles, triples, steals, times grounding into double plays, or any number of other stats. Yelling "Triple Crown!" and dropping a metaphorical mic is not a cogent argument.
But what about Cabrera going off in September, while Trout cooled down?
One win counts for one win in April, May, June, July, August, or September. But if you want to try to ascribe higher leverage to September at-bats the way you would ninth-inning at-bats in tie games, sure, go ahead.
But what about Cabrera leading his team to the playoffs, while Trout led his team to the golf course?
Leaving aside the Angels' superior record in a much tougher division, the teammates your general manager picks for you should have no bearing on a player's value. Trout did more this year to help his team win than did Cabrera (or anyone else, including Robinson Cano, who's had a hell of a year and could be argued to have produced about as much value as Cabrera, maybe even a little more) and Adrian Beltre (another candidate with value comparable to Cabrera's who's not coming up in the main Trout vs. Cabrera debate). He is therefore the league's most valuable player.
I have to agree with you there ... something special about the triple crown ... I think its only been accomplished 13 times and no one in 45 years.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
1.Triple Crown
2. Team in playoffs
3 Performing in September
1 - doesn't mean he had a better year than trout
2 - trout's team had a better record
3 - so did trout...also, season is six months long, not one
I'm not penalizing Trout for playing on better teams ... lots of other great players have played similar schedules or in easier divisions and didn't accomplish the feat ... and Cabrera hasn't yet either ... but if he does accomplish he deserves the MVP.
Jim Leyland: ‘There Is No Flaw In The Miguel Cabrera Season’
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2012/10/03/ ... ra-season/
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
so he deserves the award for being marginally better at the plate...and severely deficient (compared to trout) in all other aspects??
We're not comparing anyone to lots of other great players...we are comparing trout and cabrera
I don't see how that makes sense
Yeah Cabrera has had the better season ...44 HR ... 139 ... RBI's 331 BA ... currently leagues the league in all categories.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
1. No, but he had a historically monumental year. People are gonna remember that Cabrera won the Triple Crown. They might remember that Trout had an epic rookie year, but they're not gonna remember the ins and outs of it.
2. Sure, but he didn't elevate his team to do what it had to do to continue playing after today.
3. Where was Trout when his team needed him most? Finishing behind the 2x defending AL champs is nothing to be ashamed of, but they couldn't even overcome the A's. They're likely in the same position with or without him.
I don't think 60 rbi is that marginal.
No he also deserves the award because he far more than marginally better at the plate than Trout down the stretch. I know Cabrera was responsible for more than a few wins in September that pushed them passed Chicago.
Cabrera had a considerably better September...maybe if Trout had contributed the way Miggy had in the final month even final 2 months the Angels are in the playoffs. So winning the triple crown combined with Miggy making a major contribution down the stretch should earn him MVP.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
finally a triple crown winner in my lifetime
fucking stupid move.
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