** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **
Comments
-
Not just in Georgia. It’s insidious in all repub run states. It’s not just about winning the electoral college but also not having Kamala win by such a margin that any dispute on its face is a joke or POOTWH winning the electoral vote but with a slimmer loss in the popular vote than 2016 to claim “mandate.”mrussel1 said:
I certainly worry about that in GA.Halifax2TheMax said:
And that turnout is going to be suppressed.mrussel1 said:
Who cares.. it's just probability modeling. I mean it's kind of a fucked up logic that is really like typical statistician masturbation. They are taking weighted polls, rating them, then re-weighting them to come up with this projection. That's a few too many probability assumptions stacked on top of each other for me. I think Tim said it best when he talked about turnout. It's all about that.Gern Blansten said:
Nate's silver bulletin goes the other way. Some are saying that he's in the bag with Peter Thiel and is weighing some lower ranked polls higher than he used to with the 538 model.The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:
Why don't you quote the 538 projection for us?EdsonNascimento said:Where are the Silver Bullet quoters? Any update on the projections?
(I am still of the mind these things are only really good in hind sight - unless it's like 90% one way or the other, it's a toss up and can be rationalized after the fact why it actually worked when it didn't).
It's likely Nate trying to get subscribers as the race will likely be closer than he shows.
I’m on record that POOTWH will be reelected as vote suppression is one small cog in the authoritarian take over machine.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
There's a trump boat parade in my hood tomorrow. AG Todd Rokita is supposed to show up....and there will be voter registration tables so that the dems don't steal this election.
Hilarious that in Red Meat, Indiana they think they need more registered votersRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol0
-
Well... He sold his model to CBS. Now he's got a different competing model. It does seem a bit disingenuouspjl44 said:Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lolRemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
He did not sell his political model. He kept the model and sold the branding. And I believe ABC not CBS.Gern Blansten said:
Well... He sold his model to CBS. Now he's got a different competing model. It does seem a bit disingenuouspjl44 said:Blue line go down, Nate criticism go up lol0 -
0 -
In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.Philly NJ said:
Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally. Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing. But they won't. They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.Gern Blansten said:
Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.Philly NJ said:
No, but I will be at both Philly shows.josevolution said:
Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation?Philly NJ said:njhaley1 said:
Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.mickeyrat said:Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president
It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.
Get more newsonWASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.
Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.
continues.....
I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact.
Liz CheneyKamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.Excerpt from DHS report:
“As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”
0 -
Why are you conveniently leaving out the fact that this started during the Trump administration? It's almost as if you are making a disingenuous argument.Philly NJ said:
In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.Philly NJ said:
Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally. Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing. But they won't. They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.Gern Blansten said:
Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.Philly NJ said:
No, but I will be at both Philly shows.josevolution said:
Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation?Philly NJ said:njhaley1 said:
Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.mickeyrat said:Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president
It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.Get more newsonWASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.
Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.
continues.....
I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact.Liz CheneyKamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.Excerpt from DHS report:
“As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”
Why do you think Donald Trump killed the bipartisan border bill?
https://abcnews.go.com/US/dhs-watchdog-warns-urgent-issue-after-immigration-officials/story?id=112964072DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' after immigration officials allegedly lose track of unaccompanied children
The cases in question spanned both the Trump and Biden administrations.
DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' regarding unaccompanied children
DHS watchdog warns of 'urgent issue' regarding unaccompanied children
Homeland Security's internal watchdog says it has uncovered an "urgent issue" with how immigration off...Show MoreThe Department of Homeland Security's internal watchdog says it has uncovered an "urgent issue" with how immigration officials handle cases involving unaccompanied migrant children, warning in a new report that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has been unable to keep track of all unaccompanied minors released from government custody.
The interim report, sent to Congress on Tuesday and obtained by ABC News, said that -- in the past five years -- more than 32,000 unaccompanied migrant children failed to appear for their immigration court hearings, and ICE was "not able to account" for all of their locations.
By law, the Department of Health and Human Services is responsible for the care of unaccompanied migrant children, so after they are initially taken into custody by U.S. authorities, it is ICE's role "to ensure [their] timely and safe transfer" to HHS, which then often places them in shelters or qualified sponsors' homes.
"Without an ability to monitor the location and status of [unaccompanied migrant children], ICE has no assurance [they] are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor," Inspector General Joseph Cuffari wrote in his interim report.
He urged ICE to "take immediate action to ensure the safety of [unaccompanied children] residing in the United States."
Recent Stories from ABC NewsCuffari's report is part of a broader audit of ICE's ability to track unaccompanied migrant children who have been released or transferred from U.S. custody after entering the country.
According to the interim report, from 2019 to 2023 -- a period spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations -- immigration officials transferred more than 448,000 unaccompanied migrant children from ICE custody to HHS.
Immigrants walk towards a U.S. Border Patrol checkpoint after crossing the U.S.-Mexico border on Sep...Show moreJohn Moore/Getty Images, FILEAfter interviewing more than 100 officials and visiting ten ICE field offices, the inspector general found that immigration officials "cannot always monitor the location and status of unaccompanied migrant children who are released ... and [then] did not appear as scheduled in immigration court."
When unaccompanied migrant children do not show up to court, federal judges will often issue several continuances -- to postpone the hearings for months -- until they are left with no choice but to issue deportation orders.
In a statement Tuesday afternoon, ICE said it "is committed to the protection and well-being of children and works closely with [HHS] and other federal partners to fulfill its obligations under law."
Earlier this year, ABC News attended several hearings at immigration court in Hyattsville, Maryland, where federal judges were forced to issue removal orders for unaccompanied migrant children who did not appear for their scheduled hearings. And for those who do appear, only 56% are represented by counsel, according to the Department of Justice.
ABC News previously reported that tens of thousands of unaccompanied young migrants are representing themselves before federal immigration judges due to a litany of issues crippling the court system.
In his interim report, Cuffari said that as of May 2024, more than 291,000 unaccompanied children had not been placed into removal proceedings because ICE had not served them notices to appear or scheduled a court date for them. Accordingly, the number of unaccompanied children who failed to appear for their court dates "may have been much larger" than 32,000 had ICE issued notices or scheduled court dates for those 291,000 children.
"Immigration court hearings are often ICE's only opportunity to observe and screen [children] for trafficking indicators or other safety concerns," the interim report said. So, according to the report, when ICE fails to service notices to appear, or schedule court dates, that "reduces opportunities to verify their safety."
The report cited a number of key challenges for ICE, noting that, among other issues, "ICE still lacks adequate staffing, which can limit officers' time and ability to check the location or immigration case status of migrants."
Recent Stories from ABC News
00:0002:24Read More"Resource constraints also impact [their] ability to issue [notices] to all [unaccompanied children] after their release from HHS' custody," the report said.
The report also said that ICE is burdened by "manual, multi-step processes to share information on [children] who do not appear in court."
The watchdog suggested that Homeland Security officials "develop and implement an automated system to document court appearances and maintain address information of unaccompanied migrant children."
Agency officials agreed with the watchdog's recommendation to incorporate an automated tracking mechanism, according to a brief response included with the 18-page interim report. But they also suggested that the assessments in the watchdog's interim report failed to articulate some structural challenges that complicate their ability to track migrant children and "therefore lead to misunderstandings about the process."
In its statement, ICE said the interim report's findings may be "misleading and may be misconstrued because they fail to acknowledge key facts," including that ICE does not issue any notices to appear for unaccompanied children "until after they have been placed with sponsors who have been vetted by HHS."
www.myspace.com0 -
I wonder if we lost a couple trolls with that Russia stuff going down. I mean, I never see these people talking about Pearl Jam or sports or whatever.Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila, PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/160 -
The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.0 -
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.0 -
Gern Blansten said:
Anyone that opposes trump is ok in my book.brianlux said:Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.Tough crowd here sometimes, lol
Yes!
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Seems Mark Fuckerberg did the censoring. Did his letter mention any threats or coercion for failure to comply? Mark could have been a man like Elongitaint and told Brandon to fuck off, yes?Philly NJ said:
In a letter to Congress, Zuckerberg admitted to censoring at the request of Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Source? For the censorship and 200,000+ claims.Philly NJ said:
Wouldn't mind if the band addressed the censorship directed by Harris/Biden and the estimated 200,000+ kids that are unaccounted for from crossing the border illegally. Even say something about the murders in Philly, NYC, and Baltimore, all places they are playing. But they won't. They don't attack the Dems, at least I never heard them be critical of Clinton, Obama, or Harris/Biden.Halifax2TheMax said:
Or gun violence. Or the environment. Or asking you to get involved and vote. Safe space is hard to come by these days.Gern Blansten said:
Well I sure hope Ed doesn't make you cry if he mentions women's rights.Philly NJ said:
No, but I will be at both Philly shows.josevolution said:
Hey did attend the show last night? You know the show where Ed called out the judges for trampling women’s productive rights or the gun problem we have in this nation?Philly NJ said:njhaley1 said:
Damn, son. Still need Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, GWB.mickeyrat said:Liz Cheney endorses Harris for president
It's the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential bid.Get more newsonWASHINGTON — Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., on Wednesday endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, the latest high-profile Republican endorsement for Democrats.
Cheney's comments took place during an appearance at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy.
continues.....
I'm guessing some or all will also hold for maximum impact.Liz CheneyKamala Harris is a radical liberal who would raise taxes, take away guns & health insurance, and explode the size and power of the federal gov’t. She wants to recreate America in the image of what’s happening on the streets of Portland & Seattle. We won’t give her the chance.Excerpt from DHS report:
“As of May 2024, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had not served a Notice to Appear (NTA) or scheduled a court date for more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children (UCs). In each ICE location we visited, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) could not serve NTAs on all UCs. At one location we visited, 34,823 (84 percent) of 41,638 UCs in the local area had not been served NTAs to initiate immigration proceedings…Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”
I wonder if you understand how things work? Based on your disingenuous immigration example, I’m assuming not.09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
Yeah it's a different landscape since Dobbs for sure.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
Should be noted that Silver's model is the outlier compared to the others, which more reflect 538's estimates. I've also seen that Silver is including more republican leading pollsters in PA that do not even make the cut for 538's rankings.www.myspace.com0 -
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.0 -
Followed by Darth Cheney himself:brianlux said:Gern Blansten said:
Anyone that opposes trump is ok in my book.brianlux said:Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.Tough crowd here sometimes, lol
Yes!
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/former-republican-vice-president-dick-cheney-vote-harris/story?id=113467122Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
That heart transplant must've worked!
0 -
^^
Yep.
There is literally only one thing that matters in this election. They are on the right side of history in this regard.www.myspace.com0 -
I wouldn’t go that far.njhaley1 said:
Followed by Darth Cheney himself:brianlux said:Gern Blansten said:
Anyone that opposes trump is ok in my book.brianlux said:Reading through the last few pages, I found it a bit odd to read some of the hate for Liz Cheney. I mean, yeah, OK, she is a politician and politicians are, well, you know, politicians. But as politicians go, I think she's OK. Certainly not some one I hate.Tough crowd here sometimes, lol
Yes!
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/former-republican-vice-president-dick-cheney-vote-harris/story?id=113467122Former Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the most prominent Republicans in the last half-century, will be crossing party lines this election and voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, his daughter Liz Cheney said Friday, who contended her father sees former President Donald Trump as a "grave a threat to our democracy."
The former House member who represented Wyoming told "The Atlantic" reporter Mark Leibovich during an interview at the Texas Tribute Festival that her father believes this is a serious moment in history.
That heart transplant must've worked!
09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©0 -
I think it's a series of puts and takes. Who knows where it lands. All you can control is ensuring your base and soft voters turnout.JesseMcK said:
Yeah - but Trump is an entirely different animal. Most of the governors and senators were running ahead of Biden in their states, not sure if that is still true with Kamala. Trump has his own electorate, and they seem to be hard to capture in polling.mrussel1 said:
I'd counter that and say that the polls have underestimated D support since Roe was overturned, in the mid terms and every off cycle election of note. So perhaps the polls are still underestimating his support. Perhaps they have not adjust to post-Roe. We shall see.JesseMcK said:The Nate Silver model expects a substantial bounce coming out of the conventions, so it has adjusted Harris's polls down. As that effect wears off, assuming her polling remains the same, her odds will begin to go back up. I do not believe he is in the bag for some Silicon Valley interest. Before the convention Harris was favored in his model.
I think the question is - will the polls underestimate Trump again? His swing state polling is ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020. If you were to adjust his polls for the previous errors I think he wins the EC again. The hope is that polling has gotten better, and he's capped at 47%. I dunno. Pennsylvania is really the only state that matters.
They're also capped, so if KH is 48%+ in any state, you should feel pretty good about her chances.0
Categories
- All Categories
- 148.8K Pearl Jam's Music and Activism
- 110K The Porch
- 274 Vitalogy
- 35K Given To Fly (live)
- 3.5K Words and Music...Communication
- 39.1K Flea Market
- 39.1K Lost Dogs
- 58.7K Not Pearl Jam's Music
- 10.6K Musicians and Gearheads
- 29.1K Other Music
- 17.8K Poetry, Prose, Music & Art
- 1.1K The Art Wall
- 56.8K Non-Pearl Jam Discussion
- 22.2K A Moving Train
- 31.7K All Encompassing Trip
- 2.9K Technical Stuff and Help