Nate Silver 538

The Juggler · September 2021

I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.

January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.

mickeyrat · September 2021

The Juggler said:

I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.

January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.

Rally in DC on the 18th... Restore Justice J6 or some bullshit like that

OnWis97 · September 2021

"We'll win and if we don't it's rigged."

This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.

From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.

HughFreakingDillon · September 2021

OnWis97 said:

"We'll win and if we don't it's rigged."

This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.

From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.

yeah, I forgot about his claims like that in 2016. funny how, since he won, no one really batted an eye about it. and here we are.

The Juggler · September 2021

OnWis97 said:

"We'll win and if we don't it's rigged."

This may actually end up being the most lasting legacy of Trump. He's been doing it for years. He was claiming it was rigged in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose. He claimed the Iowa Caucus was rigged that year. I think he made a similar claim when the Apprentice didn't win an Emmy.

From one man's insecure whining came an entire party's primary political strategy.

It's a fucking shame that this is true.

Would not shock me in the least if he's being encouraged to continue this lie by some folks with thick Russian accents too. I mean, is there a better way than this for him to continue to subvert our democracy from outside the White House?

mrussel1 · September 2021

mickeyrat said:

The Juggler said:

I follow one of the guys on twitter who tracks these right wing extremists and he had a big thread full of videos of those whackos outside the Biden/Newsom rally last night. Guns, bastardized American flags, and nonsensical covid and election conspiracies were flying around faster than a prairie fire with a tail wind.

January Sixth, Part Two: The Sequel is likely not far off in the future.

Rally in DC on the 18th... Restore Justice J6 or some bullshit like that

I'd love for them to try and get violent again... love it.

Jearlpam0925 · September 2021

Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.

mrussel1 · September 2021

Jearlpam0925 said:

Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.

He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.

Gern Blansten · September 2021

I can't believe the fucker is still saying the election will be negated. And people still believe it.

If any other president said that shit we would be talking about how insane they are.

Jearlpam0925 · September 2021

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.

He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.

Also not smart!

curmudgeoness · September 2021

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)

A shame it's even that close. I saw a pretty good quote somewhere - forget where now, parahrasing here, too - but people lean towards conspiracy theories in times of uncertainty/trauma/major global incidents.

And what's a shame is this is the gameplan for every Republican in elections going forward - especially high profile elections: when you lose cry RIGGED. Saw this coming before November, and it's never going away. Goddamn shame.

We could clear this all up with rank choice voting, approval voting, etc. Any kind of voting that isn't based on the plurality of a minority.

I'm not the only person espousing that viewpoint, but I did make a comment to that effect the other day. Those of us of a certain age who were in the Soviet Union soon before it collapsed saw a lot of rejection of science and embracing of superstition, folk remedies, quackery and conspiracies. So to me it's a sign of fraying social fabric.

Fragmenting society and leaving people unsure of whom they can trust and/or believe also makes it much easier to seize power -- just saying.

As for today's recall election (I'm in California): I read the 538 article this morning, and after the 2016 and 2020 elections, nothing leaves a knot in my stomach like the phrase "barring a polling error of historical proportions." Gah!

I'm agnostic on Newsom but I feel that he has done a pretty good job wrt the pandemic (French Laundry being VERY poor optics, I grant). I think a lot of people were agnostic on Newsom, but taking a hard look at the alternatives was pretty motivating for me.

The "rigged election" bs is just that --- bullshit. California is a solidly blue state, everyone knows full well that registered Dems outnumber GOP by a LOT, state legislature has Dem supermajority. Nobody should be surprised if Newsom stays in office.

But it's not really about reality. It's about money -- fundraising, grifting, whatever. "STOP THE STEAL! Send $100 now to keep our elections safe!"

And yes, the California recall process is seriously effed up. I think ranked choice voting is interesting, would not work in this case. I don't have the stamina to research and rank 45 candidates, and I doubt anyone else does, either.

curmudgeoness · September 2021

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.

He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.

I've long thought of him as Eric Cartman in the flesh.

Jearlpam0925 · September 2021

curmudgeoness said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

The Juggler said:

I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)

A shame it's even that close. I saw a pretty good quote somewhere - forget where now, parahrasing here, too - but people lean towards conspiracy theories in times of uncertainty/trauma/major global incidents.

And what's a shame is this is the gameplan for every Republican in elections going forward - especially high profile elections: when you lose cry RIGGED. Saw this coming before November, and it's never going away. Goddamn shame.

We could clear this all up with rank choice voting, approval voting, etc. Any kind of voting that isn't based on the plurality of a minority.

I'm not the only person espousing that viewpoint, but I did make a comment to that effect the other day. Those of us of a certain age who were in the Soviet Union soon before it collapsed saw a lot of rejection of science and embracing of superstition, folk remedies, quackery and conspiracies. So to me it's a sign of fraying social fabric.

Fragmenting society and leaving people unsure of whom they can trust and/or believe also makes it much easier to seize power -- just saying.

As for today's recall election (I'm in California): I read the 538 article this morning, and after the 2016 and 2020 elections, nothing leaves a knot in my stomach like the phrase "barring a polling error of historical proportions." Gah!

I'm agnostic on Newsom but I feel that he has done a pretty good job wrt the pandemic (French Laundry being VERY poor optics, I grant). I think a lot of people were agnostic on Newsom, but taking a hard look at the alternatives was pretty motivating for me.

The "rigged election" bs is just that --- bullshit. California is a solidly blue state, everyone knows full well that registered Dems outnumber GOP by a LOT, state legislature has Dem supermajority. Nobody should be surprised if Newsom stays in office.

But it's not really about reality. It's about money -- fundraising, grifting, whatever. "STOP THE STEAL! Send $100 now to keep our elections safe!"

And yes, the California recall process is seriously effed up. I think ranked choice voting is interesting, would not work in this case. I don't have the stamina to research and rank 45 candidates, and I doubt anyone else does, either.

RCV doesn't have to be 45 candidates, nor should the reason for not using it be an extreme example that someone always comes up with. There are other approaches, too, like approval voting. My point being is the way elections are currently structured (dominated 2-party system, driven by a primary system, the winner is a result of a plurality in a minority, where the extreme voices/views have wayyy too much sway, is certainly not the way. That's on top of using a separate system for the Executive branch).

I really don't give a shit about Newsom, since I'm not in California. I just know there's a 100% chance he's better than what the GOP could come up with.

Also saw a good point somewhere re: the idea of the GOP taking over California. First, HA. HA. not happening anytime soon. Two, if the super wealthy of CA are serious about leaving CA for TX, MT, UT, whatever, PLEASE DO IT. Great way to turn one blue state into possibly many. Or certainly more to the left.

The Juggler · September 2021

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Trump's nothing more than a figurehead. To ponder the idea that he's actively involved with any grand plan that doesn't directly benefit him today is to give him too much credit. He's a dunce. The well's poisoned already. The only reason anyone still clings to him at all is due to the threat of another 4 years, other than that, at this point, he's the architect of the playbook going forward for the rest of that trash party.

He's not and never has been a leader. He is the voice, the person willing to say what the deplorables think. He gets his feed from the grass roots and parrots it.

Also not smart!

I am not saying he is the master planner of all this. I am saying I wouldn't be surprised that the same people who may have been pulling his strings (blackmailing him, perhaps) for the last 5 or 6 years are still doing it.

The fact that it helps his ego to never admit defeat is also, obviously, fueling this nonsense.

gimmesometruth27 · September 2021

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

Gern Blansten · September 2021

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you. But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

The Juggler · September 2021

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you. But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer.

mrussel1 · September 2021

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you. But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer.

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong. When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation. Today, too many people have too much to lose. I don't see that as a risk. The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population. And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost.

HughFreakingDillon · September 2021

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you. But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer.

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong. When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation. Today, too many people have too much to lose. I don't see that as a risk. The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population. And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost.

If you have enough people losing their jobs/livelihoods and they see that as a direct result of government action, I see a very different set of circumstances leading to something awful.

mrussel1 · September 2021

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

gimmesometruth27 said:

what is fueling it is the fact that nobody, NOBODY has been held accountable. not trump, not gaetz, not gosar, not maggie 3 names, not boebert. none of the people that led the insurrection. also, the insurrectionists that did face justice got slaps on the wrist.

i heard someone say something like nazism was defeated in ww2.

well i guess hitler dying is similar to trump being voted out of office. but the way nazism was defeated was nazi leadership were held accountable, or they committed suicide.

maga has ashli babbitt now, who is the maga equivalent of horst wessel.

maga is festering and growing because nobody has been held to account, and it is much of a failure of the doj as it is the fault of trump, flynn, the my pillow guy, fox news, oann, and the people that encouraged the insurrection that i listed earlier.

with no accountability this is going to get worse.

I'm with you. But imagine if they were to be held accountable. I can't imagine the violence and stupidity that would emerge from that.

Well something's gotta be done. I agree with gimmie, we are cruising straight towards a really bad place.

I don't know the answer.

I see no scenario of some right wing uprising while the economy stays strong. When you look at popular revolutions, it's all about the economic situation. Today, too many people have too much to lose. I don't see that as a risk. The right wing outrage machine just continues to monetize and milk the anger of a small percentage of the population. And when a few of them do stupid things, they weep and cry and plead guilty because they realize everything they have lost.

If you have enough people losing their jobs/livelihoods and they see that as a direct result of government action, I see a very different set of circumstances leading to something awful.

It's only companies of 100 or more people. You can also test every week.

Nate Silver 538

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