Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

If the mail is working as it is in NJ, mailing one Tuesday means they might arrive sometime over the next 3 weeks.

Thank god as long as ballots are postmarked by the 3rd they can be accepted up until the 6th (in PA). Not great, but it's something.

That is good. 

Will he allow them to be counted, though?

Welp, surprisingly, the SC shot down the WH's 2nd attempt to block the ability, which is good.....BUT they did leave the door open if it's close. Which is such fucking horseshit. Basically, they're saying "We'll steal it if you give us the opportunity to." Need such a blowout here.

Either these outstanding ballots need to get to a drop-box by the 3rd, OR we're gonna have a shit ton of people showing up on E-Day uneducated to the idea that you have to show up at the polls with your entire mail-in ballot package to vote in person. Otherwise they'll be filling out provisional ballots. And in either case of in-person voting for these people that means clogging up the voter lines, which fucking sucks.

Nearly 80% of the vote should be cast or received by Monday which will be about double the previous record, freeing up tons of space for voters to go vote on Election Day if needed. Texas is already near 95% of 2016 turnout. The biggest issue may be errors people make on the mail in ballots and them getting rejected. 

PA has about 35% of 2016s vote already in, as I think they started the voting later than other states w/ higher %.  Dems are up 45% so far in the PA votes already cast and have mailed in their ballots at a quicker rate so far, so in theory the late votes that SCOTUS would be striking down could be more GOP. Either way, let’s say at least half the vote is already in by Tuesday, this will free up space for voting on Election Day, hopefully.

What helps PA is your dem gov, the law literally says the gov and  secy of CW certify the results. Fingers crossed that’s enough to keep SCOTUS TF out of the elections.

Jearlpam0925 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

If the mail is working as it is in NJ, mailing one Tuesday means they might arrive sometime over the next 3 weeks.

Thank god as long as ballots are postmarked by the 3rd they can be accepted up until the 6th (in PA). Not great, but it's something.

That is good. 

Will he allow them to be counted, though?

Welp, surprisingly, the SC shot down the WH's 2nd attempt to block the ability, which is good.....BUT they did leave the door open if it's close. Which is such fucking horseshit. Basically, they're saying "We'll steal it if you give us the opportunity to." Need such a blowout here.

Either these outstanding ballots need to get to a drop-box by the 3rd, OR we're gonna have a shit ton of people showing up on E-Day uneducated to the idea that you have to show up at the polls with your entire mail-in ballot package to vote in person. Otherwise they'll be filling out provisional ballots. And in either case of in-person voting for these people that means clogging up the voter lines, which fucking sucks.

Which was and is the intent all along. Riots when the polls close with hundreds of people still in line, in mostly poor, minority and dem precincts. Mostly in battleground states.

Of course, and in Philly we're dealing with some shit right now with two cops pumping a kid with 14 rounds. So we're on the edge, to say the least.

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

If the mail is working as it is in NJ, mailing one Tuesday means they might arrive sometime over the next 3 weeks.

Thank god as long as ballots are postmarked by the 3rd they can be accepted up until the 6th (in PA). Not great, but it's something.

That is good. 

Will he allow them to be counted, though?

Welp, surprisingly, the SC shot down the WH's 2nd attempt to block the ability, which is good.....BUT they did leave the door open if it's close. Which is such fucking horseshit. Basically, they're saying "We'll steal it if you give us the opportunity to." Need such a blowout here.

Either these outstanding ballots need to get to a drop-box by the 3rd, OR we're gonna have a shit ton of people showing up on E-Day uneducated to the idea that you have to show up at the polls with your entire mail-in ballot package to vote in person. Otherwise they'll be filling out provisional ballots. And in either case of in-person voting for these people that means clogging up the voter lines, which fucking sucks.

Which was and is the intent all along. Riots when the polls close with hundreds of people still in line, in mostly poor, minority and dem precincts. Mostly in battleground states.

Of course, and in Philly we're dealing with some shit right now with two cops pumping a kid with 14 rounds. So we're on the edge, to say the least.

Dude how about Columbia County saying they're not even going to start counting mail in ballots until the day after the election? The fuck is that about?

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?

It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it. 

If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next. 

Or am I fucking this up somehow?

tbergs said:

My wife requested absentee and received it last month, but with all the fuckery about mail in ballots, she decided to vote early and in person with me today. We forgot her absentee ballot, but they had it in the system as being sent, so the election official "spoiled" it and asked her to destroy it when she got home. She was then allowed to vote. When we got home I shredded the absentee ballot. I don't know if that's what they were supposed to do, but that was our experience.

brianlux said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

Big kudos and thanks for being a poll worker and watcher!  My sister is doing the same and I am proud of you and her both!

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Let's hope. In PA they can't even begin canvassing ballots until the polls open (7am). Hopefully they get right off to the races at 7 AM sharp.

I work on E-Day and am also a poll worker and poll watcher. My greatest concern, again, is people showing up having no idea they had to bring their mail-in ballot, if they have one. 

Any voter who wants to vote in person in PA, and already had a mail-in ballot sent to them, has to 1) bring the entire package with them 2) sign an affidavit that they're spoiling their mail-in ballot 3) Judge of Elections has to sign the affidavit as well, plus possible 4) if the ballot has any markings on it and/or they don't bring the mail-in ballot with them they then have to fill out a provisional ballot.

Now, imagine many, many people doing this because most people aren't nerds about elections like I am and don't know this information. That's going to result in expediting the line at a much slower rate. Fingers crossed precincts figure their shit out on this. At my location we're dedicating a separate line for this and will be constantly communicating this kind of info up and down the voter line.

So this problem would be for the people who requested an absentee and filled that out and then just did not fill out that ballot that was sent afterward right?

It is a little confusing. I know my wife requested the absentee form and then just didn't do anything with it (it actually came twice, somehow). But when we went to vote in person, there was no issue with it. 

If I am understanding this correctly, I would think there would be a lot more people in my wife's situation than those who actually went the next step and sent in their absentee ballot request but then just did not fill out the actual ballot that would've been sent next. 

Or am I fucking this up somehow?