Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

I found a PDF link in RCP for today’s ABC FL and AZ polls. This is not comforting:

” In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.”

how is it possible liberals are not energized to vote? 2 in 10 in these states. Ugh.

jeffbr · September 2020

The Economist today said their model gives the Dems a 67% chance of flipping the Senate. That is every bit as important as getting Drumpf out of the WH. Perhaps it is even more important. With a Dem Senate and House, another impeachment would spell the end of Trump, legislation could survive vetoes, EOs could be undone legislatively, judicial appointments could be voted down, etc... At this point I'm more interested in the Senate races because I don't trust Trump or his administration with this presidential election. I'm voting Biden, but the country really needs to flip the Senate.

mickeyrat · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

I found a PDF link in RCP for today’s ABC FL and AZ polls. This is not comforting:

” In both states, while Biden is strong among moderates, fewer liberals appear as likely voters compared with the 2016 exit polls. Conservatives account for nearly four in 10 voters; liberals, about two in 10.”

how is it possible liberals are not energized to vote? 2 in 10 in these states. Ugh.

you are aware that 45% of the electorate are registered independent/unaffiliated right?

so what label applies to them? nuanced thinkers? dont recall that being a choice in self-describing....

mrussel1 · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

bootleg · September 2020

MayDay10 said:

PJNB said:

MayDay10 said:

I cant talk about Biden, think about Biden, or anything without fear of the Flag and pearl clutching lunatics. Lol. people at work openly talk about the greatness of trump and I kind of have to sit and nod.

That is a tough position to be in. I bet you want to be true to yourself and your beliefs but you know it is not worth the headache to even bother to engage. I open my mouth against conspiracy nuts and trumpers at work all the time. It gets me no wheres and really wish I did not interact as much as I do in the lunchroom.

Its just stupid. I tried not to engage before in political talk since Obama because it has gotten too volatile. I sense a new degree of hostility toward people who are for Biden or anyone else besides Trump. I used to be able to find common ground with anyone and talk politics, but at this point its impossible because people are living in "Trump" ground where nothing else matters and there aren't any real issues. Its just a bunch of bullshit Nationalistic concepts and attacks on information and media.

So I guess I am very closeted. My wife too. We both work in companies surrounded by Trumpers (at least the ones who are loud about it). We dont really talk about it at all until we are at home and we vent to one another

I’ve been the same way the past four years. You hear people at work talk about trump and you want to chime in and set the record straight but it gets you no where. Trumpsters are in a complete different reality and it’s extremely difficult to even have a conversation with them. It sucks because the incompetence is spreading in to all facets of life. People don’t know what they are doing anymore in their jobs. Expertise is losing ground to unwarranted confidence. It’s maddening and sometimes you feel like your the only one. But your not, we’re just not as loud as they are and that might be part of the problem. I just recently discovered that a couple of my neighbors were just as frustrated with what’s happening as I am and it was really cathartic to be able to talk to someone else about it.

darwinstheory · September 2020

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results.

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship.

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then?

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts.

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden.

Theoretically..BUT the reality is that in 98 percent of the cases, they are not open to hearing my version of the truth. Even if i am willing to do the homework and prove it with evidence. They simply just say "fake news" or "hoax" or "HILLARY!" Their inability (or simple unwillingness) to even hold a common discussion or debate make it unbearable.

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results.

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship.

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then?

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts.

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden.

Theoretically..BUT the reality is that in 98 percent of the cases, they are not open to hearing my version of the truth. Even if i am willing to do the homework and prove it with evidence. They simply just say "fake news" or "hoax" or "HILLARY!" Their inability (or simple unwillingness) to even hold a common discussion or debate make it unbearable.

I'm in a blue state but perhaps a 50 50 suburb and people are starting to say they feel like they're in nazi Germany with the trump flags flying everywhere

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results.

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship.

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then?

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts.

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden.

I do that all the time. I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters. Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc. It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank. I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

You are a car parking attendant?

Gern Blansten · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

Ledbetterman10 said:

Still doesn't take into account (because there's no way to take it into account) the people that will vote for Trump in November, but not admit it to a pollster, or to anyone else that may ask them who they'll be voting for, because they don't want to be ridiculed or talked down to. I think there's more people out there like that than people realize.

I don't believe this narrative....tRump voters are proud to show their support for tRump.

He'll cite his grandmom or somebody as anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Of course there are those people out there, just like there are Biden supporters who are not vocal about it (Trump denigrates the guy so much, even retweeting someone calling him a pedophile---so, depending on where you live and who you know, you might not want to be broadcasting your support for fear of a stupid political argument). But there's no evidence that there is an abundance of these voters that will have a meaningful impact on the results.

Bingo! And my neighbor (who is phenomenal and been very helpful towards us) is the Assistant Chief of Police in town. A Biden sign in my yard would only harm that relationship.

A coworker upon learning of my distaste for Trump and support for Biden responded by saying: oh, so you support defunding the police then?

It's better to just remain "shy" and avoid the conflicts.

This is so true. Another reason why Biden supporters would be more shy is avoiding these kinds of arguments where you're dealing with people who are operating in a different fucking dimension where facts don't matter. It's incredibly frustrating to not only have to defend your position but educate the other person on what that position and what the facts are. Personally speaking, I have shied away from such interactions over the last few months and I can't wait to cast my ballot for Biden.

I do that all the time. I live in a very conservative county in Indiana so I'm surrounded by tRumpsters. Plus, I'm a CPA so I meet with a lot of business owners, etc. It's amazing how most people just automatically assume you vote the exact same way that they do.

It blows me away when I get a call from someone saying they are going to liquidate all of their investments because they think Biden will win and the stock market will tank. I don't even know how to respond to that idiocy.

You are a car parking attendant?

I'm a Certified Public Asshole

Gern Blansten · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Same with Ohio

mrussel1 · September 2020

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Same with Ohio

I'm a native Ohioan, from a very blue pro-union area, right next to the Ford engine plant where the 351 Cleveland was built. I'm very disappointed in the direction of my old state. It feels like a foreign land now.

pjhawks · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Philly in the East, Pittsburgh in the West and Alabama in the middle is how we describe PA. And I live in PA so I can put it down if I choose.

Biden is spending a ton of money in the Philly area and I see a heck of a lot more Biden signs this year than Hillary signs in 2016.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Same with Ohio

I'm a native Ohioan, from a very blue pro-union area, right next to the Ford engine plant where the 351 Cleveland was built. I'm very disappointed in the direction of my old state. It feels like a foreign land now.

Same here....I'm from Greenville (NW of Dayton) which used to house a major FRAM plant (now owned by Honeywell), Corning Glass plant, BASF Chemical, several other plastic and rubber manufacturers, etc. FRAM is still there but is probably 10% of the size it used to be.

That town has turned into drug central.

The Juggler · September 2020

78%. Now the highest percent 538 has given him since June...

Gern Blansten · September 2020

OH tightened up...newer poll shows Biden +1

I'm hoping Sept 30 OH polls move closer to Biden.

Gern Blansten · September 2020

GA also tightening...new poll shows Biden even with tRump

cutz · September 2020

pjhawks said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

I don't expect Biden to win Florida. The D's lost both the governor and the senate seat in '18, a wave year. The thing that surprises me about this NBC batch is Kelly only +1 in AZ. I'm not buying that one.

The path will be very tricky if Biden loses FL. If he does lose there, it will be a razor thin election, in no way an easy night. If he loses FL its unlikely Biden wins NC.

If that’s the case, I think biden must take PA. I don’t think he can get to 270 losing all 3 of those states.

If he loses PA - but wins all of these MN NH AZ NV MI WI - he is at 269 and if trump takes ME2 again it’s tied at 269. Does anyone get the sense why national polls are meaningless?

And they’re going on and on about Russia now on TV. Have we not learned anything?

I would put money on Biden winning PA before FL every day of the week.

PA is loaded with no college whites who drool over trump more than PJ fans drool over a McCready solo. If FL and NC go trump PA is a must.

Philly in the East, Pittsburgh in the West and Alabama in the middle is how we describe PA. And I live in PA so I can put it down if I choose.

Biden is spending a ton of money in the Philly area and I see a heck of a lot more Biden signs this year than Hillary signs in 2016.

A friend of mine lives in Bucks County and he said ther was a lot of Trumps sign around, but he says it's done a 180 and it a lot of Biden signs this time.

Lerxst1992 · September 2020

The Juggler said:

78%. Now the highest percent 538 has given him since June...

Nate is risking looking foolish. If he says 75 isn’t 100 two elections in a row he will be ridiculed. He has admitted he does not count court challenges and other election tricks in his odds which seems foolish given the constitution gives huge advantages to the incumbent in close elections, especially one willing to bend rules to maximize that advantage. Also considering the majority of swing state polling is within moe.

BtW Univ WI poll today has Biden up 4 with 4% undecided. Glancing at all the state polling this week it looks very similar to 2016. Even more so this week.

dignin · September 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

78%. Now the highest percent 538 has given him since June...

Nate is risking looking foolish. If he says 75 isn’t 100 two elections in a row he will be ridiculed. He has admitted he does not count court challenges and other election tricks in his odds which seems foolish given the constitution gives huge advantages to the incumbent in close elections, especially one willing to bend rules to maximize that advantage. Also considering the majority of swing state polling is within moe.

BtW Univ WI poll today has Biden up 4 with 4% undecided. Glancing at all the state polling this week it looks very similar to 2016. Even more so this week.

What do suggest Nate do then? Lie about the math? I don't understand what you want.

Nate Silver 538

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