Biden vs Trump 2020 - vote now and discuss!

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JimmyV said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

Some key differences in 2020-
Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 

But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.

Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 

except for those three states Silver was right....wasn't he?

Gern Blansten said:

Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good

I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!

OnWis97 said:

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good

I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!

Yeah.  He had an opportunity to unite people around this. Like W with 9/11.  Sure. it's a bit easier to bring patriotism/nationalism in that case than against COVID, but he could have (in theory, anyway) said things like "we're all in this together; regardless of your thoughts on other political issues."  The problem is that 1) His appeal to his followers relies on demonizing domestic "enemies" and 2) he couldn't fake his way through being comforting and empathetic on his best day (which was probably in 1985).  W came in having won a questionable election and people were, as a whole, skeptical. Then 9/11 happened and he was in the mid-80s for months and maybe over 60% for over a year.  And he exploited it.  Trump could have done nearly the same thing.  Maybe not that high, but he could have used this to be over 50%, solidly.  Those who badmouthed W were decried as unpatriotic.  That might not have been as likely with Trump, since this isn't an attack on our country, but he still could have totally grabbed the middle (and imagine the way's he could have exploited a 60% approval rating). But he's not a leader.  He's not a uniter.  He's a divider.

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good

I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!

Yeah.  He had an opportunity to unite people around this. Like W with 9/11.  Sure. it's a bit easier to bring patriotism/nationalism in that case than against COVID, but he could have (in theory, anyway) said things like "we're all in this together; regardless of your thoughts on other political issues."  The problem is that 1) His appeal to his followers relies on demonizing domestic "enemies" and 2) he couldn't fake his way through being comforting and empathetic on his best day (which was probably in 1985).  W came in having won a questionable election and people were, as a whole, skeptical. Then 9/11 happened and he was in the mid-80s for months and maybe over 60% for over a year.  And he exploited it.  Trump could have done nearly the same thing.  Maybe not that high, but he could have used this to be over 50%, solidly.  Those who badmouthed W were decried as unpatriotic.  That might not have been as likely with Trump, since this isn't an attack on our country, but he still could have totally grabbed the middle (and imagine the way's he could have exploited a 60% approval rating). But he's not a leader.  He's not a uniter.  He's a divider.

He was handed an election gift, and he fumbled the handoff.  You are absolutely correct. 

cincybearcat said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Biden is destroying tRump right now....sounds good

I'm pretty shocked to be honest.  Trump had a "gift".  Despite all his bad things, if he had "dominated" the virus, I think he would have had a great chance at re-election.  It was also the perfect opportunity for a power grab.  Good thing he is an idiot and didn't grab more power, but too bad he is an idiot and people will die because he does nothing beneficial and actually causes harm by making his idiot followers think wearing a mask is political.

If his plan works, reducing testing makes Covid go away, we can end abortion by just not testing women that don't want to be pregnant.  It's a miracle!

Yeah.  He had an opportunity to unite people around this. Like W with 9/11.  Sure. it's a bit easier to bring patriotism/nationalism in that case than against COVID, but he could have (in theory, anyway) said things like "we're all in this together; regardless of your thoughts on other political issues."  The problem is that 1) His appeal to his followers relies on demonizing domestic "enemies" and 2) he couldn't fake his way through being comforting and empathetic on his best day (which was probably in 1985).  W came in having won a questionable election and people were, as a whole, skeptical. Then 9/11 happened and he was in the mid-80s for months and maybe over 60% for over a year.  And he exploited it.  Trump could have done nearly the same thing.  Maybe not that high, but he could have used this to be over 50%, solidly.  Those who badmouthed W were decried as unpatriotic.  That might not have been as likely with Trump, since this isn't an attack on our country, but he still could have totally grabbed the middle (and imagine the way's he could have exploited a 60% approval rating). But he's not a leader.  He's not a uniter.  He's a divider.

He was handed an election gift, and he fumbled the handoff.  You are absolutely correct. 

All you have to do is look at the approval ratings for governors, in this divided country, to know what kind of opportunity this fucking idiot blew.

Exactly. I’m still surprised he isn’t even smart enough to realize that and screw us fir 4 more years because of 1 thing 

JimmyV said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JimmyV said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I remember following that specific predictor in 2016 but I read it the other way. Hillary was getting a 75% chance of winning from 538 for most of October but when the Comey letter came out she fell to almost 60% and I got real worried. Then 2 days before election Comey says no investigation and Hillary went back up to around the 70% in your link

If you scroll down 538 has the tipping point states which is where the polling went wrong. The National polls were almost perfect. Some states do not poll that often and state polling is notorious for being difficult to get right. The 3 key states (PA MI WI) all had Clinton up by about 4% and they all missed about 77,000 votes total as Juggler pointed out. Some states did not poll too often that year.

Some key differences in 2020-
Now trump has a record to defend and the recent surge in covid cases combined with his terrible pandemic performance before that will hurt him. A surging virus in the summer while other countries and blue northeast states turned this around will be a shinning example to moderate voters that trump haters are spot on when they say he is unqualified. A rising death toll will continue to hurt trump.

Also Hillary never had leads like Biden does now. Hillary never did as well with seniors over 65, and covid makes it less likely they will go back to trump this year. 

Many polls have Biden up over 10 and Biden has better state level polling than Clinton. There were actually some 2016 polls that had trump consistently leading but this year IIRC Biden has led in every single poll taken. That is unprecedented for a sitting president to be so far behind in polling. I agree minds could change and trump has a chance , but it does seem like trump is trouble, unless he can pull off another scandal tarnishing his opponent. Or the process.

interesting 538 analysis addressing this topic
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

What troubles me about the 2016 analysis is the states. Silver gives Trump that "almost 30%" chance to win, but you'd be hard pressed to come up with a path to 270 given his numbers in many of those individual states. And Silver had Clinton at 77% in PA, 79% in MI, and 83% in WI. 

I don't disagree that Biden is not Clinton and that 2020 is not 2016. I am just very skeptical of polling and poll analysis in general. 

But again...the major killshot in 2016 was Comey's email letter.  The polls didn't have time to adjust.

Maybe. That was certainly a factor, but I have a hard time believing Comey alone explains Silver's map versus what we saw on election night. 

except for those three states Silver was right....wasn't he?

He also had North Carolina and Florida leaning towards Clinton. Easier to believe Comey tipped those two states than it is MI, WI, or PA.