North American Tour Odds

At this point in my life I would prefer having a seat, but I put best available and will take what I get. 

Both of my choices I put in for reserved only with a low number it makes more sense ...

ecdanc said:

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MD190661 said:

Bentleyspop said:

iOnlyownMymind said:

MD190661 said:

chukdotcom said:

MD190661 said:

hihobibo said:

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 

So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 

Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

Choice 1:  100 people
Choice 2:  100 people
Choice 3:  100 people
Choice 4:  100 people
Choice 5:  100 people

The odds will be 99% (100% really...).

Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  

MD190661 said:

chukdotcom said:

MD190661 said:

hihobibo said:

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 

So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 

Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

Choice 1:  100 people
Choice 2:  100 people
Choice 3:  100 people
Choice 4:  100 people
Choice 5:  100 people

The odds will be 99% (100% really...).

Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  

I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 

Reserved seating locations are based solely on seniority. 

iOnlyownMymind said:

MD190661 said:

chukdotcom said:

MD190661 said:

hihobibo said:

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 

So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 

Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

Choice 1:  100 people
Choice 2:  100 people
Choice 3:  100 people
Choice 4:  100 people
Choice 5:  100 people

The odds will be 99% (100% really...).

Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  

MD190661 said:

chukdotcom said:

MD190661 said:

hihobibo said:

mace1229 said:

Reading through this thread it sounds like many don't know how the odds work.
I understand it like this....
if 10C has 10,000 seats for a show and 5k put it as their first choice, 5k put it as their second and 5k put it as their third choice the lotto will end up with the following results.
Everyone who put it as first will get it. Everyone who put it as second will get it. No one who put it as third will get it. But the odds are displayed as 67% since there are 10k seats and 15k requests for them.

Priority is the biggest factor. But it looks like even MSG has a very good shot if it is your first pick.

This guy gets it. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the odds. A 99% means that basically they have not met demand for their allotted tickets yet so no matter the ranking you'll most likely get it. At 11%, it is saying there are many more requests (among all the entries) than tickets.

Then as they draw winners, show by show, starting with the First Priority pool, they will fill those orders. If after first priority is full, say 200 of the 10000 tickets remain, your odds are then about 2%, and they'll go through the second priority requests. 

So if there are 99% odds for any show, everyone would get tickets even if it was their 5th choice? I am assuming that any request rank is added to the pool and helps decide the odds. 

Correct.  The odds represent a WORST case scenario.  Not best.  Let's say there are 500 pairs of tickets:

Choice 1:  100 people
Choice 2:  100 people
Choice 3:  100 people
Choice 4:  100 people
Choice 5:  100 people

The odds will be 99% (100% really...).

Cool. This helps me decide what to do with Oakland. I'm counting on most people picking Saturday as their first choice and Sunday 2nd, as I did. Then we are all (mostly) in the same boat for GA or decent seats for both shows. Of course if I want a much better chance at GA for Sunday, I could pick that as my first choice and Saturday as my second. However if I do this, I am pretty much guaranteeing that I don't get GA for Saturday and probably bad seats for Saturday since my request won't even be looked at until all Saturday 1st choice orders are filled. I really don't want crappy seats for either show, so I feel I am gambling a bit that one of the days will yield GA and the other good seats.  

I believe they decide the order of Reserved by seniority after all tickets are accounted for and wouldn't matter if you get reserved as a second choice?  If you have a bad 10c number I don't think you will be closer if you have it as a first choice as opposed to second.  That is my understanding anyway. 

Yes, but if you are putting in for more than 1 show, everyone who has your second choice as their first choice gets tickets before you. So 10 Club member #1 gets what left after 10 Club member 700000 gets their seats. 

No, I fear you're conflating two discrete steps in the process:

Step 1: Ticket allocation. This operates as a lottery. 
Step 2: Seat assignment. This operates solely by seniority.

Thus, whether you GET seats might be determined as you describe, but where those seats are is based entirely on seniority. 

You don't think they fill all first choice orders first, then start with second choice? Or you think they just take the pool of every order after GA is filled and then assign seats by member # assuming there are enough seats to fill all orders as the rank decreases? Seems it makes ranking orders a bit less meaningful for most of the shows since there are enough seats to fill all requests for a lot of the tour. Is this spelled out anywhere? I know they are assigning seats by seniority, but is it clear that all ranked choices are lumped together as you described? Not saying you are wrong, just like playing with the odds!

here are 4 random people, the are all 10C members.  

A.  Member # 123,456
B.  Member # 75,000
C.  Member # 350,000
D. Member # 200,000

All of them put in for Reserved at MSG.  

After the random lottery, Members A and C get picked.   this means that Member B, with the best 10c number does not get tickets.  Their seniority did not help them. 

Now, since A and C got picked.   Member A gets the closer seats than member C.   Their seniority DID help them get the closer seats, ONCE they got selected. 

The time they requested tickets did not matter.  Their numbers didnt matter, in terms of getting selected.  Getting selected for tickets is completely random. 

Once they got picked, THEN their seniority comes into play. If they all did GA, then they would all have an equal shot of being on the rail, just depends on how long they wanted to camp out.(provided they dont do anything different at the gate.)

josevolution said:

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BV84003 said:

jcmitchell28 said:

At this point in my life I would prefer having a seat, but I put best available and will take what I get. 

Odds for reserved seats are far greater for every show, depending on which show many of them are practically a guarantee at 99%. If you prefer a seat, there's no reason to even shoot for GA.

That’s my thinking on my choices I don’t want anything to do with GA ...

I don't mind GA but my wife is short so she likely wouldn't be able to see. So I think I am switching my priority to reserved seating.

MD190661 said:

OK. I'm focused on Oakland. I put in for 2 shows and let's say all seats are reserved. I am going to get tickets to both shows no matter what order I put them in. If I assume most people put Saturday as their first choice and I put Sunday first, wouldn't I get higher priority for better seats over anyone who put Saturday as their first choice? Even if my member number is higher? If there is 100% odds of getting both shows, then what is the point of even prioritizing the date if everyone with a lower member number gets better seats than me no matter what their priority show was?

I think I get it. Priority is only to determine if will get selected to buy tickets. After that selection, assuming you get picked,  you have the same chance of getting GA or reserved as anyone else no matter what the priority order. So for Oakland, there is no difference in selecting your priority if both shows stay 100%. The odds of GA are true odds, not your odds based on priority. If each show is 100%, all priority selections are lumped together and selected show priority means nothing. 

Kidcloudkicker said:

So with the ability to sell your 10C tickets for face value in the fan-to-fan exchange its now possible to have non 10C members in the 10C only GA pit. Not that I'd expect alot of GA tickets to be sold but still. 

So lets say the odds for the show I request are 50/99 and I chose reserved seats as my priority. Do they draw the GA and Best Available priorities first and the people who don't get GA from that cut into the ticket pool for the people who went strickly seats as their priority? I guess I am trying to not be in GA but give myself the best chance of being drawn for a seat if that makes any sense.

ajflicker said:

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Kidcloudkicker said:

So with the ability to sell your 10C tickets for face value in the fan-to-fan exchange its now possible to have non 10C members in the 10C only GA pit. Not that I'd expect alot of GA tickets to be sold but still. 

So lets say the odds for the show I request are 50/99 and I chose reserved seats as my priority. Do they draw the GA and Best Available priorities first and the people who don't get GA from that cut into the ticket pool for the people who went strickly seats as their priority? I guess I am trying to not be in GA but give myself the best chance of being drawn for a seat if that makes any sense.

They draw names at random, and if your option is available, you get tickets. 

given2fly23 said:

I really don't think the odds are accurate anymore (if I am understanding the selection process correctly) because of the "best available" option. I hope I'm very wrong, but I'm worried that the 99% is way wrong and will get people's hopes up.

I never saw this confirmed anywhere, but when selecting tickets huge sections were in blue and spread out. I thought that might be 10c tickets. If that is the case, it was like half the venue, which is a ridiculously huge amount. Imagine if half the show were 10c members.
And in that case, pretty much everyone is getting tickets, except those who chose MSG as 2 or 3rd choice.

Current odds?