North American Tour Odds

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  • BennyLaRue
    BennyLaRue Posts: 751
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    It's not that they can't, it's that they probably don't want to. Rapidly declining numbers might influence people not to enter the lottery and they'd want as many people in the lottery as possible, to collect their info if not to make a sale. It was probably a TC request to show the odds but there's really no advantage to TM to do so.
  • bootlegger10
    bootlegger10 Posts: 16,301
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ecdanc said:
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    Fire. 
    my waiting has NOTHING to do with the odds...I'm waiting for a person to confirm or deny they are going to AZ so I know what to request...so enjoy your day 
    And same to you! 

    Double burn!
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 32,221
    It doesn’t matter when you enter the lottery as long as you do it before they close the lottery! 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • ricardofurriel
    ricardofurriel Posts: 265
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    Severed Hand
  • YourLightMadeUsStars
    YourLightMadeUsStars Posts: 58
    I’m one of the hold outs but for no specific reason other than life and wanting to make sure I understood the new system. 

    Let me ask a question and then I think I’m good.. is there any benefit to the spouse having an account as well anymore? 

    Or if they are only drawing names by city and everyone that has that city has an equal chance do I put in for all four shows under my account since my number is better than hers by about 5 years? If we end up with some reserved seats I’d rather my number determining seat selection with upper bowl seats a possibility now..

    Better way to ask maybe; if a show is still at 99% do you think you can get best available tickets as your 4th city selection?  Especially if that city is 99/99?

    Thoughts? 
  • NDJeff7
    NDJeff7 Posts: 216
    I think if the odds stay for a show at 99% by the time the drawing happens then everyone will get tickets who requested for that show, no matter the priority that they put.
  • NewfieintheUSA
    NewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved
  • NewfieintheUSA
    NewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    TM not updating odds this morning?
  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    I agree that you should put in what you want, and that there's nothing you can do about it anyway. But stop stressing about the damn odds? What am I supposed to do all day today then, work?
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    NDJeff7 said:
    I think if the odds stay for a show at 99% by the time the drawing happens then everyone will get tickets who requested for that show, no matter the priority that they put.
    This is accurate though I wonder what they will do with the extra tickets that are not going to be used. I hope that they would throw the less attractive seats back in the verified fan and public sale mix instead of picking and choosing. 
  • JojoRice
    JojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 4,554
    Last day of the lottery.  Wish they'd go ahead and do an update this morning. 
    "I got memories, I got shit"
  • chukdotcom
    chukdotcom Posts: 757
    JojoRice said:
    Last day of the lottery.  Wish they'd go ahead and do an update this morning. 
    Maybe they did...
  • jefft
    jefft Posts: 678
    PJNB said:
    NDJeff7 said:
    I think if the odds stay for a show at 99% by the time the drawing happens then everyone will get tickets who requested for that show, no matter the priority that they put.
    This is accurate though I wonder what they will do with the extra tickets that are not going to be used. I hope that they would throw the less attractive seats back in the verified fan and public sale mix instead of picking and choosing. 
    I sure hope they do this most logical thing to do.
  • JojoRice
    JojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 4,554
    chukdotcom said:
    JojoRice said:
    Last day of the lottery.  Wish they'd go ahead and do an update this morning. 
    Maybe they did...
    Very true.  Odds didnt change much during the 8pm update last night.  
    "I got memories, I got shit"
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,549
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved


    Doesnt it seem putting NYC at any spot lower than 1 is wishful thinking?
  • NewfieintheUSA
    NewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    Lerxst1992 said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved


    Doesnt it seem putting NYC at any spot lower than 1 is wishful thinking?
    Most likely
  • PianoManKD
    PianoManKD Posts: 125
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    Shots fired!!!
  • tdawe
    tdawe Posts: 2,091
    edited January 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    PJNB said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    gotthebottle said:
    ricardofurriel said:
    MSG at 13/74. Do you think NYC Reserved as a 2nd choice will strike me out?
    what's your first choice?
    Buddy and I are thinking Baltimore GA as 1st choice. It’s the only show we have in common.  It’s at 19% atm... I’m just concerned I’ll strike out in both if I go Baltimore GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. 

    You do cities as priorities not sections for those cities. 
    So I'm sorry if I'm being slow. I guess I'm getting old.
    In the "old" system", I would have done
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- NYC Reserved
    3- Baltimore Reserved

    In this new system, if I were to put best available for both shows, it would look something like this:
    1- Baltimore GA
    2- Baltimore Reserved
    3- NYC GA
    4- NYC Reserved

    My concern is that if I put best available for Baltimore and don't get GA, I would get my "second choice" (by default) which is Baltimore Reserved. Let's say that someone has Quebec GA as option 1 and NYC Reserved option 2. Would he/she/they have better odds than me to get NYC reserved?

    I'm sorry if I'm making it more complicated than it is. Thank you. 
    No, it would be
    1. Baltimore Best Available
    2. NYC Best Available

    If you are selected, they will check to see if there are GA tickets left, if so you get them, otherwise you get Reserved


    Doesnt it seem putting NYC at any spot lower than 1 is wishful thinking?
    If you're set on GA then yes. If the reserved odds drop much further (which I kind of think they will, right now I'd make the over/under at 55%) then yes. But as it stands now with 74% overall for reserved, you won't have a great chance but it won't be 0%. Like I said earlier I bet we'd all be surprised by the amount of entries they get that seem weird or poorly thought out from a strategic perspective - first of all not everyone is on here doing Hey Guys It's Time For Some Game Theory for three straight days, and second of all there are probably people who do understand the odds but have other priorities and don't see the downside in throwing MSG on the bottom of their list (it's not like it costs you anything). I don't doubt that the majority - even vast majority - of MSG entries are first priority, but the way the odds are right now (again - I personally think they'll look different by midnight), I'd guess that second priority will give you a puncher's chance at reserved seats.
    Camden 2 2006, Newark 2010, Barclays 2 2013, Central Park 2015, MSG 2 2016, Wrigley 1 2016, Rome 2018, Prague 2018, Asbury Park 2021, EV & Earthlings NYC 1 2022, MSG 2022, Louisville 2022, Dublin 2024, MSG 1 2024, MSG 2 2024
  • mcgruff10
    mcgruff10 New Jersey Posts: 29,237
    PJNB said:
    gotthebottle said:
    PJNB said:
    This odds updating thing is painful. If tenclub can have a system updating every 5 minutes how can Ticketmaster have one that blows so much. 
    Stop stressing about the damn odds...just put in what you want...nothing you can do about it anyway. 
    Great advice from someone that has yet to put their picks in waiting to see how the odds land....
    daaaaaamn.  Jeff coming in with a little new york type attitude.  I love it.
    I'll ride the wave where it takes me......
  • LaFleur
    LaFleur Posts: 829
    edited January 2020
    Not sure when these were updated (how are you all seeing update time?), but here are current odds for the Canadian shows to maybe save someone bit of time scrolling:

    TOR 40/99
    OTT 75/99
    QC 99/99 (!!!)
    HAM 51/99

    Changed my picks 4 times....I'm done now.....the waiting begins.... : =)
    Post edited by LaFleur on
    Barrie - '98
    Toronto - '96, '00, '03, '05, '06, '16, '20, '22
    Ottawa - '16, '20, '22
    Hamilton - '20, '22

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