North American Tour Odds

CopperTom said:

tdawe said:

While other people spend their time tonight studying “polls” about some “election” which will determine whether or not we all “die in the apocalypse”, we who have our priorities straight will be poring over the updated Ten Club lottery odds. 

I will support the candidate that pledges to improves 10C lottery odds!

jstu39 said:

benjs said:

jstu39 said:

benjs said:

Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:

• Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
• Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
• If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2

I am not sure what you are saying is accurate. I dont know and am not trying to argue.
I dont think entering GA only gives you a better chance at GA. The way I read it is they look at first choice and select a person and see what they requested. If they selected GA and GA is available they get GA. If they selected best available and GA is available they get GA. They they selected GA and GA is full and reserved is available they get nothing. If they selected best available and GA is full and reserved is available they get reserved.
So by selecting Best Available you get an automatic backup if you are concerned about getting in the building.
Does that make sense? Does anyone know?

What's been shared is that they'll draw names, deplete the appropriate pool, repeat until all first choices are done, move onto second choices, etc. I'm pretty sure the way you just explained it and the way I just explained it are the same. The only difference is your second last sentence: my understanding is that it's not a "backup" per se, it's just that if you submitted Best Available and the GA pool is depleted, but Reserved isn't, you'd be picked for Reserved. Again, this means selecting "Best Available" will give you the better odds of the two pools.

Thanks. I think the key is selecting GA first doesn't give you a better shot at GA than selecting best available. If your name is picked and GA is available in either scenario you get GA....I think lol!

JojoRice said:

Baltimore & MSG reserved odds just went down 

gotthebottle said:

I asked ticketmaster email but haven't heard back yet...if original purchaser of a pair can't go I assume they have to throw the pair into the FAn to Fan exchange since the tix are non-transferable and the other person who CAN go is SOL?