North American Tour Odds

12357…49

Comments

  • wallerce
    wallerce Posts: 12
    So I have a question on strategy based on the latest odds. I plan on putting in for MSG and the Phoenix shows and considering that Phoenix is still showing 99% for reserved seats, should I put in MSG as 1st priority (best available) and then Phoenix as my 2nd priority (best available)? I believe this would give me the greatest chance to get tickets to both shows. And yes, I understand that nothing is guaranteed with this lottery. 
  • BennyLaRue
    BennyLaRue Posts: 751
    Lerxst1992 said:
    BennyLaRue said:
    Goneshootin said:
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
    MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

    Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections
    I was responding to the "MSG fits around 14k for a concert" part.

    As for your post, the current thinking is Ten Club doesn't have all the shaded sections, just GA and portions of the blue shaded sections. It's very unlikely they have been provided 12K out of 21K tickets.
  • LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan
    LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan Posts: 3,417
    I don’t think that all the blue is 10c only unless I missed something. I think the greyed our part has no 10c seats and if selected by 10c for reserved, you can be anywhere that is blue.
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:
    I don’t think that all the blue is 10c only unless I missed something. I think the greyed our part has no 10c seats and if selected by 10c for reserved, you can be anywhere that is blue.
    Yes they could only have a pair (not likely) in one of those blue sections or they could have 200 pairs.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,864
    CopperTom said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?

     Take a look at the seat map.  10C secured an extraordinary amount of tickets.  In the past the 10C alottment was about 10% of capacity.  Now It's >50%.  Plus you can sign up for  only 1 Ticket.  99% seems accurate to me.
    I doubt it's ALL of those areas.  Most likely end seat and front rows(hopefully).  Either that or they made a sweet deal with TM and gave them the really good seats so PJ fans are left w whatever to appease us.

    Not sure but I know in the past we never has 200's for fan club.  
  • MUZIK
    MUZIK Posts: 630
    Lerxst1992 said:
    BennyLaRue said:
    Goneshootin said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
    MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

    Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections


    Definitely not 21k.

    phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K

    Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K
    09.11.98, 08.24.00, 08.25.00, 04.30.03, 07.08.03, 07.08.03, 09.15.05, 09.16.05, 09.19.05, 09.30.05, 10.01.05, 05.12.06, 05.13.06, 05.25.06, 05.27.06, 05.28.06, 06.01.06, 06.03.06, 06.19.08, 06.20.08, 06.22.08, 06.24.08, 06.25.08, 06.27.08, 06.28.08, 06.30.08, 07.01.08, 08.05.08, 08.07.08, 10.27.09, 10.30.09, 10.31.09, 05.18.10, 05.20.10, 05.21.10, 10.15.13, 10.18.13, 10,19,13, 9.23.15, 9.26.15, 04.28.16, 04.29.16, 05.01.16, 05.02.16, 05.06.22, 05.07.22, 09.14.22
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    Anyone else find it odd that the best seats in the house for MSG are greyed out?
  • MikeGuilbeau
    MikeGuilbeau Posts: 29
    Question on reserved seating. All entries have the same odds. Once selected, are the seats assigned by seniority in the 10c? Or is that random as well?  I know many past shows were based on seniority but I haven't seen anything regarding the upcoming tour
  • CPR7
    CPR7 Stade de France, July 10, 2016 Posts: 379
    wallerce said:
    So I have a question on strategy based on the latest odds. I plan on putting in for MSG and the Phoenix shows and considering that Phoenix is still showing 99% for reserved seats, should I put in MSG as 1st priority (best available) and then Phoenix as my 2nd priority (best available)? I believe this would give me the greatest chance to get tickets to both shows. And yes, I understand that nothing is guaranteed with this lottery. 
    I asked a similar question in another thread. So basically if you just want to be in the building at both shows put MSG down as your first choice. If you really want GA at Phoenix then put that as your first choice with the risk of missing out on MSG altogether.
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    MikeGuilbeau said:
    Question on reserved seating. All entries have the same odds. Once selected, are the seats assigned by seniority in the 10c? Or is that random as well?  I know many past shows were based on seniority but I haven't seen anything regarding the upcoming tour
    yes seniority 
  • JPPJ84
    JPPJ84 Hamburg, Germany Posts: 3,464
    PJNB said:
    Anyone else find it odd that the best seats in the house for MSG are greyed out?
    Lots and lots of VIPs in NY I guess
  • MikeGuilbeau
    MikeGuilbeau Posts: 29
    PJNB said:
    MikeGuilbeau said:
    Question on reserved seating. All entries have the same odds. Once selected, are the seats assigned by seniority in the 10c? Or is that random as well?  I know many past shows were based on seniority but I haven't seen anything regarding the upcoming tour
    yes seniority 
    Thanks
  • MUZIK
    MUZIK Posts: 630
    JPPJ84 said:
    PJNB said:
    Anyone else find it odd that the best seats in the house for MSG are greyed out?
    Lots and lots of VIPs in NY I guess
    Correct. Those are the friends and family sections.
    09.11.98, 08.24.00, 08.25.00, 04.30.03, 07.08.03, 07.08.03, 09.15.05, 09.16.05, 09.19.05, 09.30.05, 10.01.05, 05.12.06, 05.13.06, 05.25.06, 05.27.06, 05.28.06, 06.01.06, 06.03.06, 06.19.08, 06.20.08, 06.22.08, 06.24.08, 06.25.08, 06.27.08, 06.28.08, 06.30.08, 07.01.08, 08.05.08, 08.07.08, 10.27.09, 10.30.09, 10.31.09, 05.18.10, 05.20.10, 05.21.10, 10.15.13, 10.18.13, 10,19,13, 9.23.15, 9.26.15, 04.28.16, 04.29.16, 05.01.16, 05.02.16, 05.06.22, 05.07.22, 09.14.22
  • given2fly23
    given2fly23 Evanston, IL Posts: 6,042
    benjs said:
    Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
    Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
    Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above
    @benjs Where is this language from? I think I remember reading it but can't find it.


    Found: Soundgarden Hyde Park DVD (Thank you for the gift!)
    Posters for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/117469/posters-for-sale
    T-Shirts for Sale: http://community.pearljam.com/discussion/149289/pj-t-shirt-trade-or-sale
  • hihobibo
    hihobibo Tampa, FL Posts: 1,145
    MUZIK said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    BennyLaRue said:
    Goneshootin said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
    If 12000 entered, wouldn't the odds be closer to 0 than 100? MSG fits around 14k for a concert. 
    MSG fits almost 21K for a concert

    Not all are 10c seats. Looks to be about 12k based on the shaded sections


    Definitely not 21k.

    phish who had the whole pit GA wasn’t even 20K

    Pearl Jam will be more like between 18 and 19K
    Google "Madison Square Garden Concert Capacity" and it states almost 21k. I'm sure some stage setups revise that, but I'm guessing that is where the OP got that figure from.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,396
    Have the odds updated yet or that wont be til the evening?
  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,953
    With the GA odds.   It usually includes people trying to get them in later rounds right?  So if you choose it (or best available this year) your odds are probably higher than posted, because it shows people who picked it as their 2nd/3rd show also depleting the stat.

    Hopefully TM doesn't mess this up and distributes in a similar fashion to 10c.  IE draw all the 1st picks first before moving onto 2nd pick.

    I'm actually surprised TM has a system built for this (given I've only ever seen it done this way for PJ).
  • tschav
    tschav Posts: 2,900

    It will be interesting how much of each blue section is used for 10c... full sections or an allotment of the first ___ rows of each area?
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    Zod said:
    With the GA odds.   It usually includes people trying to get them in later rounds right?  So if you choose it (or best available this year) your odds are probably higher than posted, because it shows people who picked it as their 2nd/3rd show also depleting the stat.

    Hopefully TM doesn't mess this up and distributes in a similar fashion to 10c.  IE draw all the 1st picks first before moving onto 2nd pick.

    I'm actually surprised TM has a system built for this (given I've only ever seen it done this way for PJ).
    Yes though with a show like MSG I bet thats pretty damn close to the accurate % chance that you will get GA. Not many people would put that later. 
  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,953
    PJNB said:
    Zod said:
    With the GA odds.   It usually includes people trying to get them in later rounds right?  So if you choose it (or best available this year) your odds are probably higher than posted, because it shows people who picked it as their 2nd/3rd show also depleting the stat.

    Hopefully TM doesn't mess this up and distributes in a similar fashion to 10c.  IE draw all the 1st picks first before moving onto 2nd pick.

    I'm actually surprised TM has a system built for this (given I've only ever seen it done this way for PJ).
    Yes though with a show like MSG I bet thats pretty damn close to the accurate % chance that you will get GA. Not many people would put that later. 
    True, on the other hand, there's no harm in choosingf "best available" for your secondary choices.  I wonder how that impacts the stats.

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