North American Tour Odds

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Comments

  • what dreamswhat dreams Posts: 1,761
    edited January 2020
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
  • MD190661MD190661 Posts: 394
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
    I did this for Seattle 2. I only was willing to travel to see them if I scored GA. Not worth being in the stands at a baseball stadium, for me at least. I put in for both Oakland shows as I live about 10 miles from there, but probably will only go to 1 if I wind up in crappy seats for both nights. I figure I'll get at least GA one night or at least decent seats. I would guess there are some fans who wouldn't want to travel to sit in less that great seats or GA.  
    10/1/94, 6/22/95, 6/24/95, 9/16/96, 7/22/98, 10/21/01, 6/1/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 9/1/05, 7/15/06, 7/18/06, 8/28/09, 10/07/09, 10/3/12, 11/26/13, 6/18/18, 8/10/18, 5/12/22, 5/13/22, 5/13/24, 5/25/24




  • smaksmak Posts: 241
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
    If you want GA, put both.  If you want reserved, it's a little more difficult.  You have to look at the odds and decide whether you think you'll get them.  You aren't going to have a GA backup.

    While there may be people that do not want GA at all, I doubt the opposite is true.
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,588
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.
    It seems it might be harder to get 1 extra (if you need 3) from another fan then in the past though doesn’t it? Just concerned. 
    hippiemom = goodness
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,913
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.


    They did not say everyone:

    "The majority of fans who enter the Ten Club ticket request will get tickets."

    That's  potentially 
    49%  unhappy fans 
  • kcuf mekcuf me Posts: 56
    Anyone get tickets this morning?  how are the odds looking?
  • JojoRiceJojoRice Kennesaw, GA Posts: 4,398
    Last time the odds updated was around 8pm Eastern last night.  No odds updates so far this morning. 
    "I got memories, I got shit"


    ISO Hollywood & Nashville 2 tickets. PM me to coordinate a drop!
  • I just went in to look at the odds and all of the shows said 99%
  • CopperTomCopperTom Posts: 3,080
    I just went in to look at the odds and all of the shows said 99%
    Reserved odds.
  • CopperTom said:
    I just went in to look at the odds and all of the shows said 99%
    Reserved odds.
    Ah gotcha...I guess you don't see the updated odds GA vs Reserved unless you go all the way through the steps.
  • Never mind, I see how to check them now.
  • camhendycamhendy Posts: 167
    Never mind, I see how to check them now.
    We're counting on you
    2013: London
    2016: Ottawa
    2018: Wrigley 1 & 2
    2022: Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto
    2023: Innings Fest (EV), Ft Worth 1 & 2, Austin 1 & 2
    2024: Seattle 1 & 2


  • kcuf mekcuf me Posts: 56
    Can you check them without going back into your order?
  • kcuf me said:
    Can you check them without going back into your order?
    If you go in like you are going to start a new order and click request on the show it shows you the odds for GA and reserved.
  • mattcozmattcoz Chicago Posts: 2,220
    I've heard rumors that St Louis will be a real downer of a show and that the GA pit is actually behind the stage, everyone should just not pick it.
    1998: East Troy 2000: East Troy, Rosemont 2003: Champaign 2006: Chicago (UC), Milwaukee 2007: Chicago (Lolla) 2009: Chicago (UC), Chicago (UC) 2010: Noblesville 2011: East Troy (PJ20), East Troy (PJ20) 2013: Chicago (WF), Seattle 2014: St. Louis 2016: Chicago (WF), Chicago (WF) 2018: Chicago (WF), Chicago (WF) 2022: St. Louis 2023: Chicago (UC), Chicago (UC) 2024: Chicago (WF), Chicago (WF)
    Coming soon... 2025: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
  • Matts3221Matts3221 Posts: 658
    They've said it's likely everyone who wants tickets will get tickets. If your goal is to see the show, put in best available. If you put in GA only, and there's no GA left in the lottery you're out of luck, even if there are reserved seats available. That would be an unwise move, in my opinion. I don't understand why anyone would do that.

    I did this for the Quebec City show , only because it is a large trip for me , I am going GA or bust , old 10C expired years ago and signed up again in 2017? Maybe 2018 so I have a 620xxx number. If I am going to spend the funds to go to cross boarders , hotels ect ect. I don't want something far back so for this one show GA or bust (odds are still at 99% so I think I am good). Otherwise the Boston area is bound to get at least 3 shows in the fall I would suspect ( 2 DCU center , 1 Hartford XL ).  
  • tschavtschav Posts: 2,881
    Some good GA odds in a few spots... no venue is below 99 for reserved.

    Toronto: 51/99
    Ottawa: 99/99
    Quebec City: 99/99
    Hamilton: 67/99
    Baltimore: 26/99
    MSG: 17/99
    Nashville:50/99
    St Louis: 41/99
    OKC: 99/99
    Denver: 46/99
    Glendale: 79/99
    San Diego: 70/99
    LA: 54/99; 51/99
    Oak: 64/99; 83/99
  • Daughter5Daughter5 Mass Posts: 38
    Hi all:blush:
    I have been a member for years except a couple years due to medical, which now limited to traveling. I have always been fortunate getting tickets in Boston because they are always listed usually 2 nights except this year. I have also seen shows in other cities added. My question is will they be adding more shows?
    The emails with the secret codes about choosing a city and that drawing is for the end of the week, I am so confused I have been reading link after link now I’m lost LOL
    Fans have always been helpful, can someone please help me  :o
    Thank you so much 
    Brenda
  • pjsteelerfanpjsteelerfan Maryland Posts: 9,903
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    ...got a mind full of questions and a teacher in my soul...
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,340
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Really? That defeats the whole purpose. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • CopperTomCopperTom Posts: 3,080
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
  • pjsteelerfanpjsteelerfan Maryland Posts: 9,903
    CopperTom said:
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
    Because I read it when I was reviewing what they said about tickets.  That is why I posted it. Or maybe it was just when picking. When I signed up this morning, every reserved seating option was at 99%. 
    ...got a mind full of questions and a teacher in my soul...
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,595
    CopperTom said:
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
    Lol ya that would be ridiculous. I could see them saying they think they have enough tickets that the odds will stay at 99% for most shows but to say it would never move...
  • pjsteelerfanpjsteelerfan Maryland Posts: 9,903
    PJNB said:
    CopperTom said:
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
    Lol ya that would be ridiculous. I could see them saying they think they have enough tickets that the odds will stay at 99% for most shows but to say it would never move...
    PJNB, I have been on this board a long time,  Just posting what I thought I read. And again, when I picked this morning, every odd for every show was at 99% for reserved seats, so I thought it was correct. 
    ...got a mind full of questions and a teacher in my soul...
  • RP123663RP123663 Posts: 188
    afgpj said:
    Is there a place to check the odds without going through the ticket request steps again?
    This is my question as well.  Is the only way to look at this to log in thru TM and put in your code?  
  • pjl44pjl44 Posts: 9,971
    PJNB said:
    CopperTom said:
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
    Lol ya that would be ridiculous. I could see them saying they think they have enough tickets that the odds will stay at 99% for most shows but to say it would never move...
    PJNB, I have been on this board a long time,  Just posting what I thought I read. And again, when I picked this morning, every odd for every show was at 99% for reserved seats, so I thought it was correct. 
    If you find it, post it. It would definitely be interesting if true. A move like that defies logic, but I'm not entirely ruling out TM defying logic.
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,595
    PJNB said:
    CopperTom said:
    Pretty sure Ticketmaster said somewhere all the reserved seating odds were going to stay at 99%, so no one would know them. Not sure if I read that in the 10c email, or when I signed up for the Verified fan sale.  
    Definately not true.  Why would you even post that?
    Lol ya that would be ridiculous. I could see them saying they think they have enough tickets that the odds will stay at 99% for most shows but to say it would never move...
    PJNB, I have been on this board a long time,  Just posting what I thought I read. And again, when I picked this morning, every odd for every show was at 99% for reserved seats, so I thought it was correct. 
    I know you have been here a long time but still if true that would a ridiculous and pointless system. I have no doubt you thought you read that or maybe a representative said it to you incorrectly but there is noway that can be true. That would be a broken system imo. 
  • benjsbenjs Toronto, ON Posts: 9,226
    Winning GA probability = (# of GA seats remaining per round draw) / (GA applicants + Best Available Applicants)
    Winning Reserved probability = (# of Reserved seats remaining per round draw) / (Reserved applicants + Best Available Applicants overflow from GA if applicable)
    Winning Best Available probability = greater of the two above

    So, summarizing facts that I plan on using as guiding principles:
    • Your best opportunity to win GA is with a first pick, and your opportunity to win GA decreases dramatically after that (unless the show's market is extremely soft for both Best Available and GA), as both Best Available and GA will default to depleting from GA.
    • Your best opportunity to win a show, period, is to select Best Available, because the greater odds (between Reserved and GA) will become your odds. If not attending a Pearl Jam show is preferable to you over attending a Pearl Jam show with Reserved Seats, only select GA. Otherwise, you are doing yourself a major disservice (especially if your 10C number is reasonably good).
    • If the number of GA/Reserved specific applicants in any round equal or exceed the availability within GA/Reserved specifically, that section will not be available for any subsequent rounds. Once this happens for both GA and Reserved, no one who applied with a further round number will win for that show. For example, if I think Quebec City's rounds 1 + 2 will deplete QC's inventory before Ottawa's rounds 1 + 2, I'd be wise to have QC as my round 2, and Ottawa as my round 3, unless I decided it's more important for me to be at Ottawa than QC, in which case I'd maintain Ottawa as my number 2
    '05 - TO, '06 - TO 1, '08 - NYC 1 & 2, '09 - TO, Chi 1 & 2, '10 - Buffalo, NYC 1 & 2, '11 - TO 1 & 2, Hamilton, '13 - Buffalo, Brooklyn 1 & 2, '15 - Global Citizen, '16 - TO 1 & 2, Chi 2

    EV
    Toronto Film Festival 9/11/2007, '08 - Toronto 1 & 2, '09 - Albany 1, '11 - Chicago 1
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,913
    Does it make any sense that less than 12,000 members entered the MSG lotto for reserved seats in the first day?
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