2020 United States & Canada Tour Rumors

Weston1283 said:

Texas and Utah were ruled out.  It’s likely not Oklahoma.

Missing city has to be Albuquerque or Vegas.  Not sure which other cities could be in play with the 2 above states ruled out.

As much as I would love for it to be Albuquerque I can’t imagine Dimi would pass up the opportunity to make a bunch of Breaking Bad related hints. 

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

Good explanation. Thank you for taking time to clarify the way the system works. 

dankind said:

Sheets Of Clay said:

Weston1283 said:

Texas and Utah were ruled out.  It’s likely not Oklahoma.

Missing city has to be Albuquerque or Vegas.  Not sure which other cities could be in play with the 2 above states ruled out.

As much as I would love for it to be Albuquerque I can’t imagine Dimi would pass up the opportunity to make a bunch of Breaking Bad related hints. 

It does have a few U's in it.

Ah, true.  At least one mention of throwing pizzas on a roof haha.

gotthebottle said:

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

YES!! That's why I keep telling people...If you REALLY want a show in a hard to get city,  put it as your first choice and don't worry about the others just yet. 

This would be my advice for "winning" the lottery.
1.  Review the show dates and cities.  Decide how many of the shows you'd like to attend and rank each on how critical it is for you to attend.
2.  Decide if you need GA or can also go for Reserved.  Reserved in NA generally has better odds than GA.  Also, many members choose to enter GA as their first option and Reserved as their second.  So, if you go Reserved as your #1 choice you will have a distinct odds advantage.
3.  Halfway through the entry period review the current odds in the tool.  
4.  For shows with lower odds (<10%) it would be a risk making the show anything past your first choice.
5.  For shows with good odds (>75%) you may be able to get away with making them your 2nd or 3rd choice.
6.  For shows with great odds (>90%) you will likely get tickets with any choice.
7.  A GA entry any lower than 1st choice for a high demand show is a wasted entry.  You'd be better served picking Reserved for a high demand show as #1 and GA for a low demand show as #2.
8.  For cities with more than one date, the club typically only allows you to win tickets for one of the dates.  If you use four entries for the two nights (GA night 1, Reserved night 1, GA night 2, and Reserved night 2) it is likely that three of your choices would be voided.  If you prefer GA your best option would be to choose the night with the best GA odds as #1 the Reserved with the best odds as #2.
9.  Balance your desire for a show versus your odds to get tickets.  It may be better for you to take the risk of a low odds draw for a show in your backyard versus a good odds show elsewhere.
10.  Make your entries well in advance with the understanding that you can change them prior to the end of the entry period.
11.  A ticket buddy really does help.  You can get better odds for a single show or better chance of getting tickets to multiple shows.  Just be prepared to get two pairs if you both enter for the same show.
12.  As many have written, your Ten Club number doesn't affect your odds.  It only affects your seat choice if you choose reserved.
13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.


 

incidental immortality said:

gotthebottle said:

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

YES!! That's why I keep telling people...If you REALLY want a show in a hard to get city,  put it as your first choice and don't worry about the others just yet. 

This would be my advice for "winning" the lottery.
1.  Review the show dates and cities.  Decide how many of the shows you'd like to attend and rank each on how critical it is for you to attend.
2.  Decide if you need GA or can also go for Reserved.  Reserved in NA generally has better odds than GA.  Also, many members choose to enter GA as their first option and Reserved as their second.  So, if you go Reserved as your #1 choice you will have a distinct odds advantage.
3.  Halfway through the entry period review the current odds in the tool.  
4.  For shows with lower odds (<10%) it would be a risk making the show anything past your first choice.
5.  For shows with good odds (>75%) you may be able to get away with making them your 2nd or 3rd choice.
6.  For shows with great odds (>90%) you will likely get tickets with any choice.
7.  A GA entry any lower than 1st choice for a high demand show is a wasted entry.  You'd be better served picking Reserved for a high demand show as #1 and GA for a low demand show as #2.
8.  For cities with more than one date, the club typically only allows you to win tickets for one of the dates.  If you use four entries for the two nights (GA night 1, Reserved night 1, GA night 2, and Reserved night 2) it is likely that three of your choices would be voided.  If you prefer GA your best option would be to choose the night with the best GA odds as #1 the Reserved with the best odds as #2.
9.  Balance your desire for a show versus your odds to get tickets.  It may be better for you to take the risk of a low odds draw for a show in your backyard versus a good odds show elsewhere.
10.  Make your entries well in advance with the understanding that you can change them prior to the end of the entry period.
11.  A ticket buddy really does help.  You can get better odds for a single show or better chance of getting tickets to multiple shows.  Just be prepared to get two pairs if you both enter for the same show.
12.  As many have written, your Ten Club number doesn't affect your odds.  It only affects your seat choice if you choose reserved.
13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.


 

👏👏👏 awesome info & strategy tips ...

incidental immortality said:

13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.

This is something I've always wondered about and could never find a good answer on. Not that ranking strategy has ever really been an issue for me - I've either been looking at long-shot NYC shows or traveling for stadium or European shows where success was assured - but when the lottery is open for 5 days or whatever it's hard not to obsessively check the odds and noodle over the choices, and knowing what order the drawings are happening in is a pretty critical piece of information. 

Anyway, one of the best parts about this club is watching people struggle to understand the lottery system whenever it comes up. Here's hoping for some fun next week.

This would be my advice for "winning" the lottery.
1.  Review the show dates and cities.  Decide how many of the shows you'd like to attend and rank each on how critical it is for you to attend.
2.  Decide if you need GA or can also go for Reserved.  Reserved in NA generally has better odds than GA.  Also, many members choose to enter GA as their first option and Reserved as their second.  So, if you go Reserved as your #1 choice you will have a distinct odds advantage.
3.  Halfway through the entry period review the current odds in the tool.  
4.  For shows with lower odds (<10%) it would be a risk making the show anything past your first choice.
5.  For shows with good odds (>75%) you may be able to get away with making them your 2nd or 3rd choice.
6.  For shows with great odds (>90%) you will likely get tickets with any choice.
7.  A GA entry any lower than 1st choice for a high demand show is a wasted entry.  You'd be better served picking Reserved for a high demand show as #1 and GA for a low demand show as #2.
8.  For cities with more than one date, the club typically only allows you to win tickets for one of the dates.  If you use four entries for the two nights (GA night 1, Reserved night 1, GA night 2, and Reserved night 2) it is likely that three of your choices would be voided.  If you prefer GA your best option would be to choose the night with the best GA odds as #1 the Reserved with the best odds as #2.
9.  Balance your desire for a show versus your odds to get tickets.  It may be better for you to take the risk of a low odds draw for a show in your backyard versus a good odds show elsewhere.
10.  Make your entries well in advance with the understanding that you can change them prior to the end of the entry period.
11.  A ticket buddy really does help.  You can get better odds for a single show or better chance of getting tickets to multiple shows.  Just be prepared to get two pairs if you both enter for the same show.
12.  As many have written, your Ten Club number doesn't affect your odds.  It only affects your seat choice if you choose reserved.
13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.


 

Fantastic. Thank you!

incidental immortality said:

gotthebottle said:

incidental immortality said:

Lerxst1992 said:

bgirl59 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SpinTheLastExit said:

Brisk. said:

how sure are we NYC is getting a show on 3/30?

I was just about to ask this - it's the only date I'm eyeing up currently

.That NYC date has been solid on the forum for weeks, and IIRC more than one reliable source.

NYC is typically the most expensive most difficult ticket. I’m expecting odds of two percent and resale prices well north of $500. Same probably  for Baltimore 

A few Europe arena shows had face value tickets available  as of a few days ago, if that’s an option.

Yeah I'm aware it's a hot ticket, might as well try and give it a punt anyway. It's just the flights are so cheap to NYC. Already doing Europe shows

  Happy New Year!! SpinTheLastExit, where are you finding cheap flights to NYC??? or where are you flying from to NYC??? I really want to do MSG - trying to pick places I haven't seen PJ in, but the flights to NYC from Tucson are $500 before I pick my seat! HELP Please...

My best guess is Spin is from Europe and NYC airports are the gateway to many North American flights from Europe that need to change planes at NY. It is unexpected to read that because everything around NY is crazy expensive, including PJ tix. If they are playing multiple Cali shows that might be your best bet for your first 10c pick since you’re in AZ. 

Remember if only 2 shows east of the Mississippi, that’s splitting hundreds of thousands of member numbers by two, and half of those member picks will be a first round pick.

If their are 5 Cali shows plus another west show in Vegas or somewhere else, that’s splitting the lottery into six different pots, and only a 17% chance that members are picking the Cali/west show you want to win tickets for as their first round pick (assuming each Cali show has comparable demand)

tl;dr - East coast real odds will be low, even for first round picks. Cali shows will have low odds, but much better chance that if your first pick is Cali you will win tickets.

I'm not sure how many members truly understand what the odds tool tells you.  It gives a good indication on the demand for a specific show but it really doesn't give you an accurate idea of your likelihood of winning tickets.  This is because the odds only compare the number of total entries for a show versus the number of tickets available.  

If you enter NYC GA as your tenth choice your chance of getting tickets is 0%.  Historically the GA for high demand shows doesn't get past the #1 choice pool.  But the odds tool doesn't provide data broken up by choice order (it doesn't seem too hard to provide this breakdown).  

For an example, say there are 2000 pairs of GA ticket for a show.  The club gets 5000 entries in the 1st choice pool, 2500 entries in the 2nd choice pool, and 2500 entries in the 3rd and higher pools.  That's a total of 10000 entries for 2000 pairs of tickets.  The odds tool should report 2000/10000 = 0.2 = 20%.  But the odds actually are 40% for the first choice pool and 0% for everyone else.  

YES!! That's why I keep telling people...If you REALLY want a show in a hard to get city,  put it as your first choice and don't worry about the others just yet. 

This would be my advice for "winning" the lottery.
1.  Review the show dates and cities.  Decide how many of the shows you'd like to attend and rank each on how critical it is for you to attend.
2.  Decide if you need GA or can also go for Reserved.  Reserved in NA generally has better odds than GA.  Also, many members choose to enter GA as their first option and Reserved as their second.  So, if you go Reserved as your #1 choice you will have a distinct odds advantage.
3.  Halfway through the entry period review the current odds in the tool.  
4.  For shows with lower odds (<10%) it would be a risk making the show anything past your first choice.
5.  For shows with good odds (>75%) you may be able to get away with making them your 2nd or 3rd choice.
6.  For shows with great odds (>90%) you will likely get tickets with any choice.
7.  A GA entry any lower than 1st choice for a high demand show is a wasted entry.  You'd be better served picking Reserved for a high demand show as #1 and GA for a low demand show as #2.
8.  For cities with more than one date, the club typically only allows you to win tickets for one of the dates.  If you use four entries for the two nights (GA night 1, Reserved night 1, GA night 2, and Reserved night 2) it is likely that three of your choices would be voided.  If you prefer GA your best option would be to choose the night with the best GA odds as #1 the Reserved with the best odds as #2.
9.  Balance your desire for a show versus your odds to get tickets.  It may be better for you to take the risk of a low odds draw for a show in your backyard versus a good odds show elsewhere.
10.  Make your entries well in advance with the understanding that you can change them prior to the end of the entry period.
11.  A ticket buddy really does help.  You can get better odds for a single show or better chance of getting tickets to multiple shows.  Just be prepared to get two pairs if you both enter for the same show.
12.  As many have written, your Ten Club number doesn't affect your odds.  It only affects your seat choice if you choose reserved.
13.  If the draw is done how it has been in the past, there is one important aspect for you to understand.  The club assigns ALL of the GA  tickets before drawing Reserved.  In most cases, this isn't big deal.  But for low demand shows there may be fewer 1st priority GA requests than there are available tickets.  So, they will go to the 2nd choice pool.  This means that if you have Reserved as #1 and GA is #2 there is a chance that you will get GA over reserved.  So, if you don't want GA then the best option would be to leave it off your entry list.


 

This is great. Thank you from a newbie!

Spoonman110 said:

Let’s see people’s opinions:

My wife and I both have 10C numbers (mine being quite a bit lower). For the upcoming Spring tour we were thinking of each entering the lottery for tickets, hoping for as many GAs as possible (Nashville, two Canadian shows). What is the best way to do this? My thought:

My Entry:
1st - Nashville GA
2nd - Quebec City GA
3rd - Ottawa GA
4th - Nashville Reserved
5th - QC Reserved
6th - Ottawa Reserved

Her Entry:
1st - Nashville GA
2nd - QC GA
3rd - Ottawa GA

My thought here is that I should be the only one entering for reserved seats since my number is lower. And if we both happen to win GA tickets for the same show, we shouldn’t have too much trouble finding two people who want to tag along. 

Note: the order of the shows in our entries could differ depending on odds. 

I'd need to review some of the older posts from past tours but I think that it would be rare for anyone to get GA with a third choice.  Its difficult to tell without the odds but I'd suggest that with your current choices you'd have a very good chance of getting Nashville GA but a very small chance to get anything else.  Here's what I'd go with:

My Entry:
1st - Quebec City GA
2nd - Nashville Reserved
3rd - QC Reserved
4th - Ottawa Reserved

Her Entry:
1st - Nashville GA
2nd - Ottawa GA

This gives you a decent chance of getting GA for QC and Nashville and an outside shot of getting Ottawa GA.  The only drawbacks I see would be you'd have a low overall chance for getting tickets to Ottawa.  You have a chance of getting a double pair for any show but the biggest risk would be Nashville.  But the odds tool will help you with the order.

The only thing I may change would move your 4th choice to her 3rd choice.  You'd have a better chance to get reserved tickets to Ottawa with no chance of duplicate tickets.  But that would depend on the odds and how bad her number is.