Did anyone else not get any tickets when the odds were 99% for reserved ?

steved · January 2016

I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?

Indifference · January 2016

Does anyone have a screen shot of the final odds - did a lot of people wait until the last minute to put in and the odds dropped a little? My expectation is to get shut out of a show like that your priority had to be like 8th or lower - if not then something isn't right. If you put it in like 10th, 12th then I could see HOW it could happen.

As example Jacksonville could have 1000 reserved pairs - there could be 1015 people who put in (99% chance - rounded) so you could get shut out but once again you have to have it as a much lower priority.

tempo_n_groove · January 2016

steved said:
I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?

You are a 1%. Congrats.

mjb · January 2016

I am not quite sure I understand odds, or math, or the exact method that went in to all this, but I assumed the 99% shows essentially meant if you selected them, you'd get them (with the 1% tolerance built in just in case something in the matrix shut someone out so they didn't go out and hire Lionel Hutz or something) so I think if you struck out x 3 for shows that all had a 99% chance, you are well within your rights to question how the heck that could happen.

subpoprockcity · January 2016

mjb said:
I am not quite sure I understand odds, or math, or the exact method that went in to all this, but I assumed the 99% shows essentially meant if you selected them, you'd get them (with the 1% tolerance built in just in case something in the matrix shut someone out so they didn't go out and hire Lionel Hutz or something) so I think if you struck out x 3 for shows that all had a 99% chance, you are well within your rights to question how the heck that could happen.

no, sadly some of the other fans on here don't understand this, and will make snide comments after they've received tickets, but you didn't.

MayDay10 · January 2016

It sounds unexplainable. Maybe a few troubleshooting steps?

Are you sure you selected the right shows (I know, obvious)
Did you select GA on accident
Maybe the card you entered was incorrect, expired, declined, etc?

mcgruff10 · January 2016

damn that sucks steve! I lost all my choices too.

JimmyV · January 2016

My assumption was that the percentage referred only to shows you listed as your 1st priority. As you lowered your priority, so too did your chance to win. Meaning that if I had Jacksonville 1and you had it at 5, my chance of winning would be 99% while yours would be considerably less.

Maybe that isn't correct but it is how I understood things.

tubes10s · January 2016

Were the odds that were posted the odds of everyone who chose that seating and show at ANY priority?

Or

Were the odds just reflecting your chance of getting that seating and show at 1st priority?

Indifference · January 2016

tubes10s said:
Were the odds that were posted the odds of everyone who chose that seating and show at ANY priority?

Or

Were the odds just reflecting your chance of getting that seating and show at 1st priority?

Priority was NOT considered with the odds - was just entries by tickets. If you had something as #1 you definitely had a better chance than the odds listed.

Right from FAQ:
Q. What are the odds based on?
A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.

on2legs · January 2016

JimmyV said:
My assumption was that the percentage referred only to shows you listed as your 1st priority. As you lowered your priority, so too did your chance to win. Meaning that if I had Jacksonville 1and you had it at 5, my chance of winning would be 99% while yours would be considerably less.

Maybe that isn't correct but it is how I understood things.

This seems correct and was my assumption going into the lottery.

MayDay10 · January 2016

general consensus said that the % reflected the total throughout the choices.

I got Raleigh at 99% with my 3rd choice

Indifference · January 2016

MayDay10 said:
general consensus said that the % reflected the total throughout the choices.

I got Raleigh at 99% with my 3rd choice

Yeah that makes sense though if you had it as 13th you might of not made the cut.

Empty Glass · January 2016

mjb said:
I am not quite sure I understand odds, or math, or the exact method that went in to all this, but I assumed the 99% shows essentially meant if you selected them, you'd get them (with the 1% tolerance built in just in case something in the matrix shut someone out so they didn't go out and hire Lionel Hutz or something) so I think if you struck out x 3 for shows that all had a 99% chance, you are well within your rights to question how the heck that could happen.

If they have 1,000 tix (500 entries) and 501 fans enter, it's not a guarantee you get them. I'm not going to do the math to see what would bring the odds down to 98%. If you went 0-3 on 99%'s that's bad luck. Would I be pissed? Good chance. But also, if the fan club odds were 99% is assume the public sale will be pretty easy to score

Jason P · January 2016

Page 23 of the "Any Winners?" thread has a screen shot that someone took right before the lotto started. All three shows are still 99%.

Indifference · January 2016

Jason P said:
Page 23 of the "Any Winners?" thread has a screen shot that someone took right before the lotto started. All three shows are still 99%.

Thanks - guess its 1 of 2 things:
1) Something got screwed up
2) That was the actual odds - and there was actually more requests then tickets - see my example like 1015 requests for 1000 tickets. If you had 13th priority you might not get them.

Couldn't hurt for the OP to write to 10c to ask that question.

MayDay10 · January 2016

I assumed that 99% meant that supply still exceeded demand....

Apparently, assuming nothing went wrong with the order/credit card, this wasn't the case.

It doesnt make sense though because people nabbed shows less than 99% as their second choice, indicating the odds didnt refer to 1st choice only.

So you would assume that all 3 shows would have just a tad more demand than supply, thus eliminating just a couple people who had them as a late choice? Seems unlikely

Poncier · January 2016

Seems pretty implausible that you'd lose all 3 at 99%. (And someone did a screen shot of odds at lottery closing time its in one of the other threads, they were all still at 99%).

Something definitely seems wonky.

Indifference · January 2016

Poncier said:
Seems pretty implausible that you'd lose all 3 at 99%. (And someone did a screen shot of odds at lottery closing time its in one of the other threads, they were all still at 99%).

Something definitely seems wonky.

Yes, would mean all 3 shows ended up with actual 99% odds - which seems unrealistic.

Poncier · January 2016

Indifference said:

Poncier said:
Seems pretty implausible that you'd lose all 3 at 99%. (And someone did a screen shot of odds at lottery closing time its in one of the other threads, they were all still at 99%).

Something definitely seems wonky.
Yes, would mean all 3 shows ended up with actual 99% odds - which seems unrealistic.

And Steve was in the 1% shut out all 3 times, statistically almost impossible.

SPEEDY MCCREADY · January 2016

Poncier said:
Seems pretty implausible that you'd lose all 3 at 99%. (And someone did a screen shot of odds at lottery closing time its in one of the other threads, they were all still at 99%).

Something definitely seems wonky.

Am I wrong here?
I am guessing that the 99% chance of winning ONLY refers to if you made(Lets say Res. Lexington), your 1st CHOICE.

BUT!!! If you made Lexington Res. your 8th choice....THEN

100% of the people who made it their 7th choice, will get tickets before you.
100% of the people who made it their 6th choice, will get tickets before you
100% of the people who made it their 5th choice, will get tickets before you
etc.
etc.
etc.
100% of the people who made it their 1st choice, will get tickets before you.

This theory is correct? Right?
Which would explain why people did not get tickets that were listed as 99%. They were 99% if they were your 1st choice, but your odds dropped, the lower your choice was.

Poncier · January 2016

I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.

SPEEDY MCCREADY · January 2016

Poncier said:
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.

Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.

Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.

stickman · January 2016

Why not make that show number one to get the tix's you want, and then roll the dice with the other more harder shows to get ?? Just a thought ...

Poncier · January 2016

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

Poncier said:
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.

Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.

Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds)
If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.

MayDay10 · January 2016

Poncier said:

SPEEDY MCCREADY said:

Poncier said:
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.

Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds)
If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.

you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case

steved · January 2016

They were my 11th, 12th and 13th selections... I went for 7 shows all GA first... My brother has an account and we used a different strategy with his... I was given one show that I did win for. FTL GA. I chose all 7 shows GA, then all seven shows Reserved. So I put the ones that were at 99% at the end figuring they would be almost guaranteed if nothing else hit. Obviously that was not a good strategy? lol

So if:
11th Pick Raleigh 99%
12th Pick Jacksonville 99%
13th Pick Columbia 99%

I'm just saying that either the odds did not update properly and that demand exceeded supply or they cut off my choices after 8-10 or whatever.

Not complaining! was wondering How and why and if it happened to anyone else to make sure nobody else does this in the future. I was lulled into a false sense of security by the odds and I won't do that again.

rgambs · January 2016

It would be very helpful if the OP would please post a screen shot or breakdown of their choices. I suspect there will be another draw this year for west coast shows, and if people haven't figured this shit out after '13, '14 Euro, '14 US, and now '16 ECoast...with all the wealth of information on here...
No sympathy.

tubes10s · January 2016

Just based on how the lottery and priority system that we have works... it doesn't make sense to say that the odds page was based on total entries at all priorities for a given show. It almost has to be the odds at 1st priority, if you think about.

Consider those who used 2 picks on the same show... for example, I chose Hampton Reserved as my 1st choice and Hampton GA as my 3rd choice. It wouldn't make any sense for both of my picks to be considered in the odds for that show, when the rules of the lottery clearly state that I could only be chosen for one of those 2 picks.

Also, at drawing time, Hampton GA was a 44% odds, according to the chart that's been posted on this message board. It would be silly to believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the same 44% chance of getting picked just like someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority.

MayDay10 · January 2016

no, it would go down. <50% I would assume many people would have it as 1st choice, 2nd choice, and few if any at #3.

I was under the impression 99% meant that the supply was still pegged past demand.

indifferentman · January 2016

I got one show out of all 3 possible outcomes (Philly 1, Philly 2, and Lexington) and that seems to have been the norm.

What throws me off is you had people with ALL Florida shows, and people with nothing at all in the lottery.

If we can assume that your chances of getting more than 1 are very slim then we have to assume that your 1st choice is likely your only ticket. What I wonder going forward is if it is still smart to try and put both ticket types for any shows you really want to see, or if eliminating that second choice for each city helps.

Normally if I really wanted to try and guarantee that I got a ticket in the building for show A, I put in for RES then GA. Likewise if show B was night 2 I did the same. Then I put in for C and D in the same manner.

Maybe we should really be doing this instead:

A - RES
B - RES
C - RES
D - RES

Did anyone else not get any tickets when the odds were 99% for reserved ?

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