Did anyone else not get any tickets when the odds were 99% for reserved ?

badu2fan

No offence and I am really trying to word this nicely with out sounding like a jerk but why didn't you at least try and educate yourself after you missed out on the last tour on how the lottery works? They do not do it the way you said. They choose a single city and fill GA first. If first priority is not enough to fill the pit they move to second. Now even if you have Reserved as a first priority but put GA as your second and get picked you now have lost your Reserved pick due to Tenclubs need to fill the pit. After they have gotten enough people they then move on to Reserved.

NP I don't live every moment trying to figure how to game the system. I just submit and wait. TEN CLUB KARMA been on my side since I won lottery in 96 for Charleston. Still have my NON TICKETMASTER TICKET.

amethgr8

"It just doesn't make sense why people were shut out for a show like that."

because it is a lottery and their name was not pulled randomly.

bootleg

steved said:

tubes10s said:

Yep, just the fact that you got GA tickets with a 2nd priority shoots my guess out of the water that the displayed "odds" were for 1st priority pics only, because all displayed GA "odds" at drawing time were 51% and below.

I'm pretty sure you're right that all GA requests are filled first. There's a story on this message board of a guy who chose reserved for a certain show as a higher priority than GA for that same show, but he won the GA tickets and lost reserved.

I like the way that the lottery works... but there is room for improvement on how the "odds" are displayed

My wife got GA Jacksonville with her 3rd pick at 51%...

Here's the example that could help validate some of the scenarios. If someone got Jax GA at priority 3, then shouldn't that indicate that anyone who put Jax GA at priority 1 or 2 also got tix? Do we have any examples where someone who put Jax GA at 1, or 2 and didn't get tix? If so then we definitely have different ideas on what the word "priority" means. It's also quite possible that this scenario doesn't actually exist. Have to consider that some people could be trolling the boards when they post things like I got tix to 4 shows etc...

jmug23

ckravitz said:

Is it possible that since OP had these missed picks at 11, 12, 13 (or whatever) that 10C's program simply does not go down that far in the priority list? Another possibility is that the program doesn't allow anyone to get more than 4 tickets (or something like that). There are tons of other explanations that still preserve the mechanism that has been explained in this thread. The 10C has been pretty clear that there are no guarantees (even going so far as NEVER displaying 100%) and maybe that is because some of these fairly rare circumstances aren't dealt with in the program so it just defaults to "missed".

As to the cases where someone missed out on a show they had as their 1st despite someone scoring that same show with their 2nd, perhaps the person that missed had a bad credit card, or maybe they scored their 2nd pick in the same city. Again, there could be some small idiosyncrasies in the program that we don't understand even though it sticks to the general framework as has been outlined in this thread.

I agree. I haven't seen where someone got a specific show with their 3rd pick, that someone else missed the identical show with their first or second. If that has happened, I haven't seen it. And if it did happen, my guess is there is more to the story. Expired credit card etc. if it's happened, it's definitely the exception, not the norm. People are way overthinking this lottery.

jmug23

JB128716 said:

Put me in coach... I'm ready to play...

Any way, I don't think 99% means 990 tickets with a 1000 people entering. I think it means, we can't make it a 100% because someone could sue us if we state it's a 100%. So at most... it will always be 99%.

Second, I do believe they fill up GA first. So if you pick reserve with #1 and GA with #2, you can win your #2 before you win your #1.

But this is the part that makes no sense to me at all. Let's take Jax...

I'm sure a lot of us picked Jax GA and Jax Reserved. Let's also say Jax reserved was 99% and then a bunch of people put in for Jax and it dropped to 97%. I don't think that's the case but who cares.

The part that I have trouble explaining is that a lot of us that picked both GA and Reserved won GA. Wouldn't that free up even more spots for people to win Reserved?

The only thing I can think of is a declined credit card or if maybe the system only took your first 8 choices and no one noticed?

It just doesn't make sense why people were shut out for a show like that.

Exactly the point. Was anyone else shut out of a show that was 99%? If it was only one person out of thousands, then there is obviously a reason like you stated. Certainly doesn't appear this scenario was the norm.

steved

Just to try to give more info to these scenarios. It wasn't a bad credit card as there is plenty in the account and it was used with no issue and I was selected for 1 show which was GA FTL. So it wasn't that I got 4 shows and I for some reason maxed out at too many shows or it was the CC.

It seems it would have to be one of two issues:

Reason #1: The system does not go down to 11th,12th,13th picks regardless of availability or supply.

Reason #2: The odds simply were not accurate at 99%, which we seem to believe is a virtual 100%.

Either way, it is what it is. I doubt we can conclude one way or another, however I opened this dialogue so some other idiot doesn't make the same mistake as I did! Lol

subpoprockcity

if you're going to call it a lottery, and don't mind people gaming the system with multiple accounts, then call it as much, state it publicly, and let people do what they want with it. Put it up front: "Hey, we don't give a shit if you buy accounts last week for everyone you know to increase your "raffle" odds."

amethgr8

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

...

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

I'm going to collect some of picks vs results and see if I it applies to one lottery theory or the next and will report back.

steved

subpoprockcity said:

if you're going to call it a lottery, and don't mind people gaming the system with multiple accounts, then call it as much, state it publicly, and let people do what they want with it. Put it up front: "Hey, we don't give a shit if you buy accounts last week for everyone you know to increase your "raffle" odds."

I agree and disagree! How would you enforce that. Many people take advantage of this system and sign up right before the cutoff date and it is a money grab for the band for memberships and I don't agree with that.

On the other hand my wife and brother have accounts and my wife and I have gone to over 50 Pearl Jam shows together, my bro and I have hit over 30 together of the 58 I have been to. Many we go all together. I would say we are each entitled to try for tickets and have accounts, wouldn't you? If we strategize together it gives us a small advantage over an individual, but not much but it is something I believe isn't against any rules, and we have been members since 1994-1995. So if you cut out multiple family memberships you would going down a slippery slope.

subpoprockcity

steved said:

subpoprockcity said:

if you're going to call it a lottery, and don't mind people gaming the system with multiple accounts, then call it as much, state it publicly, and let people do what they want with it. Put it up front: "Hey, we don't give a shit if you buy accounts last week for everyone you know to increase your "raffle" odds."

I agree and disagree! How would you enforce that. Many people take advantage of this system and sign up right before the cutoff date and it is a money grab for the band for memberships and I don't agree with that.

On the other hand my wife and brother have accounts and my wife and I have gone to over 50 Pearl Jam shows together, my bro and I have hit over 30 together of the 58 I have been to. Many we go all together. I would say we are each entitled to try for tickets and have accounts, wouldn't you? If we strategize together it gives us a small advantage over an individual, but not much but it is something I believe isn't against any rules, and we have been members since 1994-1995. So if you cut out multiple family memberships you would going down a slippery slope.

As several have pointed out, this is not the scenario that is problematic, or the one that is discussed here. What is problematic is several new accounts created just to increase ticket odds.

If you don't want to enforce it, then call it what it is up front, publicly, and indicate that more memberships increase your odds, like raffle tickets. I doubt that will go over well

Weston1283

I got Raleigh Reserved as my 6th choice. Sorry to hear about your luck. I was under the assumption anything at 99% was (basically) a guaranteed win, regardless of priority rank

jmug23

Subpop, it sounds like another Toronto show is scheduled and I really hope you get it. Hopefully priority goes to people who entered the first night and didn't get it. Good luck.

subpoprockcity

jmug23 said:

Subpop, it sounds like another Toronto show is scheduled and I really hope you get it. Hopefully priority goes to people who entered the first night and didn't get it. Good luck.

thanks. we'll see if it pans out that way.

UseUrIllusions

jmug23 said:

Indifference said:

tubes10s said:

Indifference said:

Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain)
Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain)
Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain)
Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain)
Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets

So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.

This is exactly how I understood it. They stated it was simply the total amount of people that wanted tickets to a particular venue compared to the amount they had to allocate. Nothing to do with first, second, third priority etc. that being said though, when i saw 99% for a couple of the reserve seating areas, I assumed they had more tickets available than requests for those tickets, regardless of what priority u put that show at.

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.

I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.

I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.

I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

So the odds are indeed misleading on your first priority? I mean if the odds of GA was 30% that was the total # of people who selected the show regardless of priority, but if you put it as your first priority your odds are better than 30%.

UseUrIllusions

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.

I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

So the odds are indeed misleading on your first priority? I mean if the odds of GA was 30% that was the total # of people who selected the show regardless of priority, but if you put it as your first priority your odds are better than 30%.

PJNB

UseUrIllusions said:

Indifference said:

amethgr8 said:

"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "

the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.

they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.

I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.

that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.

I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.

So the odds are indeed misleading on your first priority? I mean if the odds of GA was 30% that was the total # of people who selected the show regardless of priority, but if you put it as your first priority your odds are better than 30%.

Yes that is correct. It said right on the tour page that the % is just an indication of interest towards a show.

Poncier

jmug23 said:

Subpop, it sounds like another Toronto show is scheduled and I really hope you get it. Hopefully priority goes to people who entered the first night and didn't get it. Good luck.

When they added Worcester 2 in 2013, it wasn't open to folks who had won the lottery for Worcester 1, so I would assume a similar scenario will take place if there is a 2nd Toronto show. Will improve the odds to an extent, but based on the percentage for Toronto 1, I think it'll still be a tough win.