I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.
Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds) If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.
you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case</p>
One thing I do know...
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 1-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG! There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
Post edited by SPEEDY MCCREADY on
Take me piece by piece..... Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
You basically put the shows too far down. GA is a hard ticket after second choice, so in my opinion your 3rd - 7th ga choices were just wasted entries. I saw people that won Columbia reserved with it as 8th choice. By your 13th choice all the ten club tickets were gone.
2003: San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Seattle; 2005: Monterrey; 2006: Chicago 1 & 2, Grand Rapids, Cleveland, Detroit; 2008: West Palm Beach, Tampa; 2009: Austin, LA 3 & 4, San Diego; 2010: Kansas City, St. Louis, Columbus, Indianapolis; 2011: PJ20 1 & 2; 2012: Missoula; 2013: Dallas, Oklahoma City, Seattle; 2014: Tulsa; 2016: Columbia, New York City 1 & 2; 2018: London, Seattle 1 & 2; 2021: Ohana; 2022: Oklahoma City
They were my 11th, 12th and 13th selections... I went for 7 shows all GA first... My brother has an account and we used a different strategy with his... I was given one show that I did win for. FTL GA. I chose all 7 shows GA, then all seven shows Reserved. So I put the ones that were at 99% at the end figuring they would be almost guaranteed if nothing else hit. Obviously that was not a good strategy? lol
So if: 11th Pick Raleigh 99% 12th Pick Jacksonville 99% 13th Pick Columbia 99%
Those were your 11th-13th picks? That's why you were in the 1%. There were 10 priority levels of people before you that got dibs, so that's exactly why you didn't score tickets.
2003 Clarkston MI #2 | 2004 Grand Rapids MI | 2013 London ON | 2014 Detroit MI | 2016 Toronto ON #1
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.
Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds) If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.
you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case</p>
One thing I do know...
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 4-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG! There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
I agree. There is definitely a strategy and I have seen many puzzling screen shots.
Basically you have one shot to swing for the fences with your first pick. Probably nothing <35 or 40% with the second pick with the 3rd pick, you should probably play it safe. Maybe one or 2 swings at something around 50-70% if you have a 99% show as a safety net.
Seeing NY I GA NY II GA NY I Reserved Philly I GA Philly II GA NY II Reserved Philly I Reserved Philly II Reserved Toronto Miami Ft Lauderdale etc
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.
Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds) If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.
you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case</p>
One thing I do know...
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 4-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG! There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
I agree. There is definitely a strategy and I have seen many puzzling screen shots.
Basically you have one shot to swing for the fences with your first pick. Probably nothing <35 or 40% with the second pick with the 3rd pick, you should probably play it safe. Maybe one or 2 swings at something around 50-70% if you have a 99% show as a safety net.
Seeing NY I GA NY II GA NY I Reserved Philly I GA Philly II GA NY II Reserved Philly I Reserved Philly II Reserved Toronto Miami Ft Lauderdale etc
is puzzling.</p>
YES! There were some screenshots posted yesterday, that I couldn't help but look at...scratch my head...and then say to myself..
"Well what the fuck did you expect? OF COURSE you didn't get any tickets"!!!!
Take me piece by piece..... Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.
Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds) If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.
you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case</p>
One thing I do know...
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 4-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG! There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
I agree. There is definitely a strategy and I have seen many puzzling screen shots.
Basically you have one shot to swing for the fences with your first pick. Probably nothing <35 or 40% with the second pick with the 3rd pick, you should probably play it safe. Maybe one or 2 swings at something around 50-70% if you have a 99% show as a safety net.
Seeing NY I GA NY II GA NY I Reserved Philly I GA Philly II GA NY II Reserved Philly I Reserved Philly II Reserved Toronto Miami Ft Lauderdale etc
is puzzling.</p>
Yes, that's why I say if people don't get it right by the next go 'round they have only themselves to blame. I haven't missed any shows that I actually thought I had a good shot of going to.
All that said, it does pull into question what 99% odds really mean... If it was me, I would have been only marginally confident in getting those tix, but I would have had some confidence based on my (perhaps) flawed analysis.
I think you are wrong, 99% reflects all requests vs. available tickets as far as I understand it.
Really? Hmm Then I guess I misinterpreted the whole odds thing.
Though I know I am correct as far as if I have RES. as my 8th choice. There will be 7 groups chosen ahead of me, before I am even considered. So common sense would tell me, no matter what the odds say, that I LOWERED my chances BIGTIME! By putting certain selections at # 8, #9, #10, etc.
Yes, if you have it 8th you have to wait till everyone who has it 1st thru 7th gets selected has their tickets, but the assumption is (and nobody knows 100% certain, or even 99% certain,) that the odds reflect all entries, not 1st priority entries. (refer to the post indifference made above with the FAQ about odds) If that assumption is correct, something is awry with steved's results or he is the unluckiest guy alive, don't take him to the racetrack with you.
you would think that if it was 1st priority entries, everything <99% would be unavailable after the first round. That was not the case</p>
One thing I do know...
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 4-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG! There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
I agree. There is definitely a strategy and I have seen many puzzling screen shots.
Basically you have one shot to swing for the fences with your first pick. Probably nothing <35 or 40% with the second pick with the 3rd pick, you should probably play it safe. Maybe one or 2 swings at something around 50-70% if you have a 99% show as a safety net.
Seeing NY I GA NY II GA NY I Reserved Philly I GA Philly II GA NY II Reserved Philly I Reserved Philly II Reserved Toronto Miami Ft Lauderdale etc
is puzzling.</p>
Yes, that's why I say if people don't get it right by the next go 'round they have only themselves to blame. I haven't missed any shows that I actually thought I had a good shot of going to.
I agree. And that goes for people who truly cant travel, and just want to go to their hometown shows, even if their hometown shows are Philly and NYC.
If next time, these same people only request GA, GA. for NYC. Then back it up with GA, GA for Philly. They will once again have nobody to blame but themselves. AGAIN.
Take me piece by piece..... Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
You think it would be simple to create an odds report for each ticket and then extend columns that show odds if it is your 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc. if this is really how the lotto is run.
Just based on how the lottery and priority system that we have works... it doesn't make sense to say that the odds page was based on total entries at all priorities for a given show. It almost has to be the odds at 1st priority, if you think about.
Consider those who used 2 picks on the same show... for example, I chose Hampton Reserved as my 1st choice and Hampton GA as my 3rd choice. It wouldn't make any sense for both of my picks to be considered in the odds for that show, when the rules of the lottery clearly state that I could only be chosen for one of those 2 picks.
Also, at drawing time, Hampton GA was a 44% odds, according to the chart that's been posted on this message board. It would be silly to believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the same 44% chance of getting picked just like someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority.
Right from FAQ: Q. What are the odds based on? A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?"
they didn't pull your name for that priority pick. they say priority is just a consideration and everything is random and anything can happen. I think there were people that missed a 99% as a first choice and got a 2nd pick with lower odds.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
What's even crazier is I saw someone who got denied for Res in Jax (their first pic) but won their 2nd pick for GA in Jax.
I'm guessing 10C picked GA first and since this person won, they did not win for Res Jax. In other words, if you just look at GA as its own lottery, they had enough tickets for this person to won. They probably didn't even see their first pic was Res Jax. That's OK by me.
BUUUUUUTTTTT..... that would take away from another person from that 99% pool. Not to mention people like me that won for GA and put in for Reserved just in case. It does sound odd.
Post edited by JB128716 on
92 - Orlando
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
Right from FAQ: Q. What are the odds based on? A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
Nothing about priority.
That description from the FAQ leaves a lot of room for interpretation.
If you believe that priority played no role, then do you also believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the exact same odds of getting chosen as someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority?
If your answer is no, then you understand that Priority certainly played a part in those odds.
To believe that those published odds were not based on 1st priority choices means that you believe that all priority levels shared the same odds of being chosen. I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show. Those two picks did NOT share the same odds of being chosen.
Surely, nobody saw the odds for the show that they wanted at 99%, and picked it as a 10th priority pick, and honestly believed that they had a 99% chance of getting it, just the same as those who picked that same choice as a 1st priority.
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
What's even crazier is I saw someone who got denied for Res in Jax (their first pic) but won their 2nd pick for GA in Jax.
I'm guessing they picked GA first and since this person won, they did not win for Res Jax.
BUUUUUUTTTTT..... that would take away from another person from that 99% pool. Not to mention people like me that won for GA and put in for Reserved just in case. It does sound odd.
That happened because 10c fills GA first. Ticketmaster won't sell GA, so 10c has to unload their entire allotment.
2003 Clarkston MI #2 | 2004 Grand Rapids MI | 2013 London ON | 2014 Detroit MI | 2016 Toronto ON #1
What's even crazier is I saw someone who got denied for Res in Jax (their first pic) but won their 2nd pick for GA in Jax.
I'm guessing 10C picked GA first and since this person won, they did not win for Res Jax. In other words, if you just look at GA as its own lottery, they had enough tickets for this person to won. They probably didn't even see their first pic was Res Jax. That's OK by me.
BUUUUUUTTTTT..... that would take away from another person from that 99% pool. Not to mention people like me that won for GA and put in for Reserved just in case. It does sound odd.
They fill up GA first.
Wouldn't it be funny if the world ended in 2010, with lots of fire?
" I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show."
not sure about this, as it is a random draw. when they do the 1st pick for a show, your name is drawn or it's not, depends how many names they have in the hat.
no one really knows how it works and this theory of putting names in a pot, all priorities, and then drawing 1st round pick, how many picked that as #1, they get it, then remaining names go back in the hat, now on the 2nd round 2nd pick, meets with much resistance.
they reach in and draw your name, if you get drawn, you get a pick if it coincides with the round.
IDK really, but this would explain a lot of how the results don't really add up with the odds.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
If priority didn't matter in the lottery why even use the word priority? It implies it means something...which is how I interpreted it. I Figured 1st priority tix request pool would be drawn first for a show, then so on and so on until all tix gone...
Right from FAQ: Q. What are the odds based on? A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
Nothing about priority.
That description from the FAQ leaves a lot of room for interpretation.
If you believe that priority played no role, then do you also believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the exact same odds of getting chosen as someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority?
If your answer is no, then you understand that Priority certainly played a part in those odds.
To believe that those published odds were not based on 1st priority choices means that you believe that all priority levels shared the same odds of being chosen. I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show. Those two picks did NOT share the same odds of being chosen.
Surely, nobody saw the odds for the show that they wanted at 99%, and picked it as a 10th priority pick, and honestly believed that they had a 99% chance of getting it, just the same as those who picked that same choice as a 1st priority.
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?
" I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show."
not sure about this, as it is a random draw. when they do the 1st pick for a show, your name is drawn or it's not, depends how many names they have in the hat.
no one really knows how it works and this theory of putting names in a pot, all priorities, and then drawing 1st round pick, how many picked that as #1, they get it, then remaining names go back in the hat, now on the 2nd round 2nd pick, meets with much resistance.
they reach in and draw your name, if you get drawn, you get a pick if it coincides with the round.
IDK really, but this would explain a lot of how the results don't really add up with the odds.
You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities?
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that for a given show, the drawing works something like this example:
If there are 100 GA seats available for the show, and 80 people request GA as a 1st priority at that show, then all 80 of those 1st priority folks get a GA seat for that show, leaving 20 more GA seats unfilled. Since there are tickets remaining after all 1st priority requests are filled, they move to the bucket of 2nd priority picks for that show. Let's say then 50 people had GA as a 2nd priority for that show. Then, the remaining 20 GA seats are drawn from the 50 people who had GA as a 2nd priority.
So in that scenario, the 1st priority folks had a 100% chance of getting chosen, but the 2nd priority folks only had a 40% chance of being chosen. Since 1st and 2nd priority covered all of the available seats, then by default, that means that those who had this show as a 3rd or lower priority had a 0% chance of being chosen.
Again, that's just my guess based on reading messages here and paying attention to lottery results that folks are sharing.
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?
did you win GA tickets for those 3 shows?
Nope
1994 - Pensacola, Miami, Atlanta - 1995 - Milwaukee, Milwaukee, New Orleans (Tickets to Phoenix, Las Cruces, Austin, Shows Canceled) - 1996 - Randalls Island, Randalls Island, Charlotte, N.Charleston, Ft. Lauderdale - 1997 - Oakland-1998 - Alpine Valley, Alpine Valley, Chicago, West Palm Beach, West Palm Beach - 2000 - West Palm Beach, West Palm Beach, Phoenix, Las Vegas (10th Anniversary Show) - 2003 - West Palm Beach, Tampa, Atlanta, Nashville, Camden, Camden, MSG, MSG - 2004 - Kissimmee, Fl - 2006 - Irving Plaza, Albany, Hartford, Denver, Denver, Las Vegas - 2007 - Ed w/ Jack Irons & Flea in LA - 2008 - West Palm Beach, Tampa, Columbia, Camden, Camden, Washington D.C. - 2009 - L.A., San Diego, Philly Spectrum Night 3 & 4 - 2010 - New Orleans, Columbus, Indianapolis, Hartford, MSG, MSG - 2011 - Ed - Hartford, Providence, Boston - 2011 - Alpine Valley X2 (PJ20), Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver - 2012 - Ed - Ft. Lauderdale x2, - 2012 / 2014 Beautiful Daughter "Emily" born 11/07/12. On the bench for 3 years! She's really cute though! - 2015 - Mexico City - 2016 - Ft. Laud, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Greenville, Raleigh, Columbia, Philly 1 & 2, Toronto 1 & 2, Fenway 1 & 2, Wrigley Night 1 & 2 - 2016 - MSG, San Francisco, San Francisco, Seattle, Seattle (TOTD) - 2018 - Seattle 1 & 2, Fenway 1 & 2
I had 3 selections for Reserved seats for Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Columbia all whose odds were at 99% when the lotto closed. I was issued neither of those shows. I did have other selections before them but as far as I understand it that shouldn't matter. If they had it at 99% they were saying there were enough tickets to fill all demand. Did this happen to anyone else?
Right from FAQ: Q. What are the odds based on? A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
Nothing about priority.
That description from the FAQ leaves a lot of room for interpretation.
If you believe that priority played no role, then do you also believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the exact same odds of getting chosen as someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority?
If your answer is no, then you understand that Priority certainly played a part in those odds.
To believe that those published odds were not based on 1st priority choices means that you believe that all priority levels shared the same odds of being chosen. I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show. Those two picks did NOT share the same odds of being chosen.
Surely, nobody saw the odds for the show that they wanted at 99%, and picked it as a 10th priority pick, and honestly believed that they had a 99% chance of getting it, just the same as those who picked that same choice as a 1st priority.
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I agree with this and incidentally this is the clearest I've seen it explained.
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I would hope that this is not how the odds were displayed. If it was, then the odds page had absolutely zero meaning and was very misleading, and was simply bad math. Your example and explanation would lead people to believe that they had a 50% chance of getting a ticket for that particular show regardless of priority level, which clearly is not the case. I would hope that 10club would give us a little more credit than to display odds in such a misleading way.
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I would hope that this is not how the odds were displayed. If it was, then the odds page had absolutely zero meaning and was very misleading, and was simply bad math. Your example and explanation would lead people to believe that they had a 50% chance of getting a ticket for that particular show regardless of priority level, which clearly is not the case. I would hope that 10club would give us a little more credit than to display odds in such a misleading way.
That is why you have to connect the dots. 10c has said the odds don't consider priority and that it is to just show the demand for a particular show.
"no, see, OP, you are the one that wronged here." most of this thread. blaming the OP and implying they didn't do something correctly.
Are you kidding me I've been trying to help and explain it does seem strange looking at the numbers and he should contact 10c and use the data to validate.
Comments
People who don't truly think this lottery out, and truly take a deep breath and think it over, are oftentimes cutting their own throat. When people put GA choices as their 1st 1-8 choices, especially if 4 of those choices are NYC and PHILLY, they are basically insuring themselves of not getting any tickets for any shows. And that's a damn shame. I have friends of mine who just refuse to take a deep breath and look at the big picture, when it comes to making their choices. They instantly go for GA in their 1st 1-8 choices, figuring..."Well I have to at least win 2 of those".
Which couldn't be MORE WRONG!
There was an 85% chance they would LOSE on ALL of their MSG and PHILLY choices.
Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
Basically you have one shot to swing for the fences with your first pick.
Probably nothing <35 or 40% with the second pick
with the 3rd pick, you should probably play it safe. Maybe one or 2 swings at something around 50-70% if you have a 99% show as a safety net.
Seeing
NY I GA
NY II GA
NY I Reserved
Philly I GA
Philly II GA
NY II Reserved
Philly I Reserved
Philly II Reserved
Toronto
Miami
Ft Lauderdale
etc
is puzzling.
There were some screenshots posted yesterday, that I couldn't help but look at...scratch my head...and then say to myself..
"Well what the fuck did you expect? OF COURSE you didn't get any tickets"!!!!
Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
Miami GA
FTL GA
Jax GA
Columbia GA
So I am not complaining... The answer I am getting is there truly is a 1%. It isn't just something they put in to cover themselves...
More to keep in mind to anyone else doing this in a later lotto. Don't take for granted a 99% too far down on your list.....
If next time, these same people only request GA, GA. for NYC.
Then back it up with GA, GA for Philly.
They will once again have nobody to blame but themselves.
AGAIN.
Till there aint nothing left worth taking away from me.....
Q. What are the odds based on?
A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
Nothing about priority.
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
they didn't pull your name for that priority pick. they say priority is just a consideration and everything is random and anything can happen. I think there were people that missed a 99% as a first choice and got a 2nd pick with lower odds.
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
I'm guessing 10C picked GA first and since this person won, they did not win for Res Jax. In other words, if you just look at GA as its own lottery, they had enough tickets for this person to won. They probably didn't even see their first pic was Res Jax. That's OK by me.
BUUUUUUTTTTT..... that would take away from another person from that 99% pool. Not to mention people like me that won for GA and put in for Reserved just in case. It does sound odd.
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
If you believe that priority played no role, then do you also believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the exact same odds of getting chosen as someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority?
If your answer is no, then you understand that Priority certainly played a part in those odds.
To believe that those published odds were not based on 1st priority choices means that you believe that all priority levels shared the same odds of being chosen. I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show. Those two picks did NOT share the same odds of being chosen.
Surely, nobody saw the odds for the show that they wanted at 99%, and picked it as a 10th priority pick, and honestly believed that they had a 99% chance of getting it, just the same as those who picked that same choice as a 1st priority.
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
not sure about this, as it is a random draw. when they do the 1st pick for a show, your name is drawn or it's not, depends how many names they have in the hat.
no one really knows how it works and this theory of putting names in a pot, all priorities, and then drawing 1st round pick, how many picked that as #1, they get it, then remaining names go back in the hat, now on the 2nd round 2nd pick, meets with much resistance.
they reach in and draw your name, if you get drawn, you get a pick if it coincides with the round.
IDK really, but this would explain a lot of how the results don't really add up with the odds.
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain)
Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain)
Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain)
Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain)
Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities?
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that for a given show, the drawing works something like this example:
If there are 100 GA seats available for the show, and 80 people request GA as a 1st priority at that show, then all 80 of those 1st priority folks get a GA seat for that show, leaving 20 more GA seats unfilled. Since there are tickets remaining after all 1st priority requests are filled, they move to the bucket of 2nd priority picks for that show. Let's say then 50 people had GA as a 2nd priority for that show. Then, the remaining 20 GA seats are drawn from the 50 people who had GA as a 2nd priority.
So in that scenario, the 1st priority folks had a 100% chance of getting chosen, but the 2nd priority folks only had a 40% chance of being chosen. Since 1st and 2nd priority covered all of the available seats, then by default, that means that those who had this show as a 3rd or lower priority had a 0% chance of being chosen.
Again, that's just my guess based on reading messages here and paying attention to lottery results that folks are sharing.
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
I agree with this and incidentally this is the clearest I've seen it explained.
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
I'm glad others found the example helpful.
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2