It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I would hope that this is not how the odds were displayed. If it was, then the odds page had absolutely zero meaning and was very misleading, and was simply bad math. Your example and explanation would lead people to believe that they had a 50% chance of getting a ticket for that particular show regardless of priority level, which clearly is not the case. I would hope that 10club would give us a little more credit than to display odds in such a misleading way.
I think it leads you in the right direction. NYC at 8%, it is pretty safe that only the carcass would remain after the 1st round... as a matter of fact, anything less than 30% would be very tough to impossible after the 1st.
However, this would indicate 99% was a safe bet and why I made Raleigh my last choice (only had 4 choices). I never doubted I would get them because I was under the impression there was enough to go around
"no, see, OP, you are the one that wronged here." most of this thread. blaming the OP and implying they didn't do something correctly.
Are you kidding me I've been trying to help and explain it does seem strange looking at the numbers and he should contact 10c and use the data to validate.
I'm talking about the individuals who have not been helpful. Please don't personalize it if you've been helping. There are other participants in the thread. Thanks.
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
I would hope that this is not how the odds were displayed. If it was, then the odds page had absolutely zero meaning and was very misleading, and was simply bad math. Your example and explanation would lead people to believe that they had a 50% chance of getting a ticket for that particular show regardless of priority level, which clearly is not the case. I would hope that 10club would give us a little more credit than to display odds in such a misleading way.
It is pretty clear, the odds feature is just a measuring stick to gauge demand, it is not anywhere advertised as an accurate assessment of a person's odds in scoring a particular ticket. If you read the information given by 10C it is all pretty clear.
That is why you have to connect the dots. 10c has said the odds don't consider priority and that it is to just show the demand for a particular show.
I'm glad others found the example helpful.
If that's the case, then they shouldn't call them "odds" because that is mathematically incorrect. It should just be called "demand." I'm not around here enough to know what 10c has further explained or not. In your example, every entry at every priority didn't have a 50% chance of getting a ticket. Some had much better odds than others. It's a shame that "odds" for a show would be displayed this way. With the multiple examples we have on these boards of people not getting tickets for shows when they put them as lower priority choices because they felt safe because that show displayed 99% odds, I think it's clear that many folks forgot to take priority into account.
The engineer in me is showing
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
Seems pretty implausible that you'd lose all 3 at 99%. (And someone did a screen shot of odds at lottery closing time its in one of the other threads, they were all still at 99%).
Something definitely seems wonky.
Am I wrong here? I am guessing that the 99% chance of winning ONLY refers to if you made(Lets say Res. Lexington), your 1st CHOICE.
BUT!!! If you made Lexington Res. your 8th choice....THEN
100% of the people who made it their 7th choice, will get tickets before you. 100% of the people who made it their 6th choice, will get tickets before you 100% of the people who made it their 5th choice, will get tickets before you etc. etc. etc. 100% of the people who made it their 1st choice, will get tickets before you.
This theory is correct? Right? Which would explain why people did not get tickets that were listed as 99%. They were 99% if they were your 1st choice, but your odds dropped, the lower your choice was.
That is why you have to connect the dots. 10c has said the odds don't consider priority and that it is to just show the demand for a particular show.
I'm glad others found the example helpful.
If that's the case, then they shouldn't call them "odds" because that is mathematically incorrect. It should just be called "demand." I'm not around here enough to know what 10c has further explained or not. In your example, every entry at every priority didn't have a 50% chance of getting a ticket. Some had much better odds than others. It's a shame that "odds" for a show would be displayed this way. With the multiple examples we have on these boards of people not getting tickets for shows when they put them as lower priority choices because they felt safe because that show displayed 99% odds, I think it's clear that many folks forgot to take priority into account.
The engineer in me is showing
I totally agree as I work with #'s all day. I was just trying to explain how it works not whether I agree with it!
Indifference, just for gits and shiggles, what do you think of this method of displaying an "average odds" (for a lack of a better term) to display odds for each show?
I'll use your original example again.
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
In this ticket lottery, there were 16 shows, with 2 choices per show, for a total of 32 possible priority slots.
If you take the % success at all 32 possible priority positions and average them, you get 10.94%. That is a calculation that could easily be done as the ticket requests come in with the information that would be available to 10c. They would know how many tickets are available, and they would know how many requests that they have at each priority position. To make this method even better, they would also have the ability to have their program logic throw out any priority buckets that had zero chances at all in them. (Example, in this scenario, if there were no priority picks at 16th priority and up, then all of those priority buckets at positions 16 and up could be thrown out, and that 10.94% 'average odds' across 32 buckets becomes 23.33%, because you'd only be averaging the odds of 15 priority buckets instead of 32 buckets).
I'm just having fun with possible ways to display odds vs demand. Your scenario is probably closer to the "odds" that were shown than mine was. I expected too much
Did anyone have success with a non-1st priority pick for any GA ticket? The highest displayed odds for any GA ticket was 51%. If the displayed odds were for 1st priority only, then nobody should have received a GA ticket with anything but 1st priority picks.
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
6/29/98 Chicago-United Center
6/18/03 Chicago-United Center
5/17/06 Chicago-United Center
7/19/13 Chicago-Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh-Consol Energy Center
10/17/14 Moline-IWireless Center (No Code)
10/20/14 Milwaukee-Bradley center (Yield)
4/26/16 Lexington-Rupp Arena
8/20/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field 8/18/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field 8/20/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field 9/5/23 Chicago-United Center 9/7/23 Chicago-United Center
I have nothing to add about the math and odds here. But I do find this, that someone going for a 99% show, no matter what pick, got shut out for 3 shows. Like someone else posted, the priority must have been so far to push you to that 1% where you didn't get tickets.
Wouldn't it be funny if the world ended in 2010, with lots of fire?
I have nothing to add about the math and odds here. But I do find this, that someone going for a 99% show, no matter what pick, got shut out for 3 shows. Like someone else posted, the priority must have been so far to push you to that 1% where you didn't get tickets.
I believe the OP said those 3 shows were his 11th. 12th, and 13th priority.
6/29/98 Chicago-United Center
6/18/03 Chicago-United Center
5/17/06 Chicago-United Center
7/19/13 Chicago-Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh-Consol Energy Center
10/17/14 Moline-IWireless Center (No Code)
10/20/14 Milwaukee-Bradley center (Yield)
4/26/16 Lexington-Rupp Arena
8/20/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field 8/18/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field 8/20/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field 9/5/23 Chicago-United Center 9/7/23 Chicago-United Center
Indifference, just for gits and shiggles, what do you think of this method of displaying an "average odds" (for a lack of a better term) to display odds for each show?
I'll use your original example again.
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
In this ticket lottery, there were 16 shows, with 2 choices per show, for a total of 32 possible priority slots.
If you take the % success at all 32 possible priority positions and average them, you get 10.94%. That is a calculation that could easily be done as the ticket requests come in with the information that would be available to 10c. They would know how many tickets are available, and they would know how many requests that they have at each priority position. To make this method even better, they would also have the ability to have their program logic throw out any priority buckets that had zero chances at all in them. (Example, in this scenario, if there were no priority picks at 16th priority and up, then all of those priority buckets at positions 16 and up could be thrown out, and that 10.94% 'average odds' across 32 buckets becomes 23.33%, because you'd only be averaging the odds of 15 priority buckets instead of 32 buckets).
I'm just having fun with possible ways to display odds vs demand. Your scenario is probably closer to the "odds" that were shown than mine was. I expected too much
Did anyone have success with a non-1st priority pick for any GA ticket? The highest displayed odds for any GA ticket was 51%. If the displayed odds were for 1st priority only, then nobody should have received a GA ticket with anything but 1st priority picks.
Wow - I think if they did you would be at an advantage as not sure the average 10c person could follow that logic. (No offense to anyone!) but I like it - perhaps an easier way would be:
To provide where the cutoff is between priority requests and tickets - something like
NYC #1 GA - 1st priority (Meaning if you don't put first you won't get tickets - even if put first you still might not depends on the lottery) NYC #1 Seats - 2nd priority (You put first you get tickets - 2nd you have a chance - lower no tickets) JAX GA - 3rd priority (You put 1st or 2nd you get tickets - 3rd you have a chance - lower no tickets) JAX Seats - 7th priority(You put 1st-6th you get tickets - 7th you have a chance - lower - no tickets)
Perhaps people could follow that - and I think would be very helpful info to have. The wrinkle with this is the fact that actually fill GA before seats no matter the priority. I'm not sure why they do this. If for some reason they don't sell out of GA for a show they could have a second sale or offer to the public. I mean if everyone who put in for GA got GA then no one SHOULD complain.
Also, I got GA for Jacksonville with my second request.
Yep, just the fact that you got GA tickets with a 2nd priority shoots my guess out of the water that the displayed "odds" were for 1st priority pics only, because all displayed GA "odds" at drawing time were 51% and below.
I'm pretty sure you're right that all GA requests are filled first. There's a story on this message board of a guy who chose reserved for a certain show as a higher priority than GA for that same show, but he won the GA tickets and lost reserved.
I like the way that the lottery works... but there is room for improvement on how the "odds" are displayed
8-31-98 - Raleigh
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
Yep, just the fact that you got GA tickets with a 2nd priority shoots my guess out of the water that the displayed "odds" were for 1st priority pics only, because all displayed GA "odds" at drawing time were 51% and below.
I'm pretty sure you're right that all GA requests are filled first. There's a story on this message board of a guy who chose reserved for a certain show as a higher priority than GA for that same show, but he won the GA tickets and lost reserved.
I like the way that the lottery works... but there is room for improvement on how the "odds" are displayed
My wife got GA Jacksonville with her 3rd pick at 51%...
1994 - Pensacola, Miami, Atlanta - 1995 - Milwaukee, Milwaukee, New Orleans (Tickets to Phoenix, Las Cruces, Austin, Shows Canceled) - 1996 - Randalls Island, Randalls Island, Charlotte, N.Charleston, Ft. Lauderdale - 1997 - Oakland-1998 - Alpine Valley, Alpine Valley, Chicago, West Palm Beach, West Palm Beach - 2000 - West Palm Beach, West Palm Beach, Phoenix, Las Vegas (10th Anniversary Show) - 2003 - West Palm Beach, Tampa, Atlanta, Nashville, Camden, Camden, MSG, MSG - 2004 - Kissimmee, Fl - 2006 - Irving Plaza, Albany, Hartford, Denver, Denver, Las Vegas - 2007 - Ed w/ Jack Irons & Flea in LA - 2008 - West Palm Beach, Tampa, Columbia, Camden, Camden, Washington D.C. - 2009 - L.A., San Diego, Philly Spectrum Night 3 & 4 - 2010 - New Orleans, Columbus, Indianapolis, Hartford, MSG, MSG - 2011 - Ed - Hartford, Providence, Boston - 2011 - Alpine Valley X2 (PJ20), Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver - 2012 - Ed - Ft. Lauderdale x2, - 2012 / 2014 Beautiful Daughter "Emily" born 11/07/12. On the bench for 3 years! She's really cute though! - 2015 - Mexico City - 2016 - Ft. Laud, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Greenville, Raleigh, Columbia, Philly 1 & 2, Toronto 1 & 2, Fenway 1 & 2, Wrigley Night 1 & 2 - 2016 - MSG, San Francisco, San Francisco, Seattle, Seattle (TOTD) - 2018 - Seattle 1 & 2, Fenway 1 & 2
"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "
the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.
they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.
I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.
that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "
the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.
they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.
I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.
that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.
I actually think that considering anomalies and the definition of a lottery this makes sense. So the odds are your chances of being drawn from the lottery wheel for that specific show and priority only comes into consideration if your name was drawn. Makes sense.
"This melody, inside of me, still searches for a solution."
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
Right from FAQ: Q. What are the odds based on? A: Each ticket option odds are calculated based on the number of entrants versus the number of tickets available.
Nothing about priority.
That description from the FAQ leaves a lot of room for interpretation.
If you believe that priority played no role, then do you also believe that my Hampton GA as a 3rd priority had the exact same odds of getting chosen as someone who had Hampton GA as a 1st priority?
If your answer is no, then you understand that Priority certainly played a part in those odds.
To believe that those published odds were not based on 1st priority choices means that you believe that all priority levels shared the same odds of being chosen. I think we all understand that a 1st priority pick for a show had a greater chance of being picked than a 5th priority pick for that same show. Those two picks did NOT share the same odds of being chosen.
Surely, nobody saw the odds for the show that they wanted at 99%, and picked it as a 10th priority pick, and honestly believed that they had a 99% chance of getting it, just the same as those who picked that same choice as a 1st priority.
It's Pretty simple - take something like Miami Reserved - odds at like 50% - say 2000 requests for 1000 pairs. So odds are 50% 1000/2000. However that does NOT consider priority as real odds could be:
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain) Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain) Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain) Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain) Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
So TC will show the odds at 50% but odds by priority are different I would be SHOCKED if didn't work how I just listed.
This is exactly how I understood it. They stated it was simply the total amount of people that wanted tickets to a particular venue compared to the amount they had to allocate. Nothing to do with first, second, third priority etc. that being said though, when i saw 99% for a couple of the reserve seating areas, I assumed they had more tickets available than requests for those tickets, regardless of what priority u put that show at.
"You don't really believe that the "1st round" of picks are made from all requests at all priorities, do you? I think it's pretty clear that that's not how this works at all. If that's the case, then why have the priorities? "
the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.
they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.
I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.
that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.
I'll stick with my explanation but thanks for putting this out there as took me a bit to follow. I don't think this is how it works at all. Under this scenario someone with 3rd, 4th or even 5th priority/round could get something that someone didn't get at all with first priority (name never pulled) and I've yet to see a real example of that. If I misunderstood - my apologizes.
I had Greenville GA 1 and Reserve 2 Raleigh GA 3 and Reserve 4 and I got Reserved for both. So much PJ love doing 2 in SC and 1 in NC..... I would have done Columbia but didn't want to drive 1000 miles for all 3 shows. I think at some point PJ needs to limit number of shows for tickets on a tour. It might help local folks get tickets.
I have seen examples of it, members getting 3rd + priorities and someone had 1st and 2nd got nothing. search the forum, I have found, I wanted to make sure before I referenced it.
it took me awhile to wrap my head around it. it's a summary of explanations already on this board from prior tours. I didn't come up with it, I'm pretty sure.
if this theory is correct, or close, another thing that comes into play is that not everyone puts their names into all the hats. I only put in for lexington and tampa. so some of the hats are fuller than others, so our odds are affected that way vs. if everyone used up to their 16th choice.
I'm not saying this is exactly how it works, but I think it's something similar.
Amy The Great #74594
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016 Missoula MT 2018
I thought the order you put them had little to do with being chosen. no matter what order you listed your name was in for drawing. After they do GA then they draw reserve. If you won GA and Reserve and you have GA listed above reserve you will get GA or if you had Reserve listed first you would get reserve. Maybe when someone is trying to do more then a few shows they might let ticket go to another member if you scored 4 shows and another member has none....They give it to the member with no shows. So do they start with the first show of tour and go by date? or do they do the shows with the most or least requests.... I liked the old way when they just did lottery for 1st and 10th rows with out the pit. I usually ended up in first 15 rows. I haven't won GA last 2 USA tour.
Or if they could do the entire floor GA and have a pit with area behind then it would be more like U2 and all the fans who want floor could and then have a random way of selecting folks for pit on night of show. It was so fun to get Zinged for the Heart on U2 Elevation tour as they scanned your ticket and announced Pit wrist band for you.
I have seen examples of it, members getting 3rd + priorities and someone had 1st and 2nd got nothing. search the forum, I have found, I wanted to make sure before I referenced it.
it took me awhile to wrap my head around it. it's a summary of explanations already on this board from prior tours. I didn't come up with it, I'm pretty sure.
if this theory is correct, or close, another thing that comes into play is that not everyone puts their names into all the hats. I only put in for lexington and tampa. so some of the hats are fuller than others, so our odds are affected that way vs. if everyone used up to their 16th choice.
I'm not saying this is exactly how it works, but I think it's something similar.
I haven't seen 1 example of this unless someone got seats with selection #3, that someone didn't get with #2 because they had GA with #1. Please find a flaw (example) where my explanation doesn't work I truly would like to know so I can edit my comments because of now I think have it nailed.
I thought the order you put them had little to do with being chosen. no matter what order you listed your name was in for drawing. After they do GA then they draw reserve. If you won GA and Reserve and you have GA listed above reserve you will get GA or if you had Reserve listed first you would get reserve. Maybe when someone is trying to do more then a few shows they might let ticket go to another member if you scored 4 shows and another member has none....They give it to the member with no shows. So do they start with the first show of tour and go by date? or do they do the shows with the most or least requests.... I liked the old way when they just did lottery for 1st and 10th rows with out the pit. I usually ended up in first 15 rows. I haven't won GA last 2 USA tour.
Or if they could do the entire floor GA and have a pit with area behind then it would be more like U2 and all the fans who want floor could and then have a random way of selecting folks for pit on night of show. It was so fun to get Zinged for the Heart on U2 Elevation tour as they scanned your ticket and announced Pit wrist band for you.
No offence and I am really trying to word this nicely with out sounding like a jerk but why didn't you at least try and educate yourself after you missed out on the last tour on how the lottery works? They do not do it the way you said. They choose a single city and fill GA first. If first priority is not enough to fill the pit they move to second. Now even if you have Reserved as a first priority but put GA as your second and get picked you now have lost your Reserved pick due to Tenclubs need to fill the pit. After they have gotten enough people they then move on to Reserved.
Is it possible that since OP had these missed picks at 11, 12, 13 (or whatever) that 10C's program simply does not go down that far in the priority list? Another possibility is that the program doesn't allow anyone to get more than 4 tickets (or something like that). There are tons of other explanations that still preserve the mechanism that has been explained in this thread. The 10C has been pretty clear that there are no guarantees (even going so far as NEVER displaying 100%) and maybe that is because some of these fairly rare circumstances aren't dealt with in the program so it just defaults to "missed".
As to the cases where someone missed out on a show they had as their 1st despite someone scoring that same show with their 2nd, perhaps the person that missed had a bad credit card, or maybe they scored their 2nd pick in the same city. Again, there could be some small idiosyncrasies in the program that we don't understand even though it sticks to the general framework as has been outlined in this thread.
In the past they have opened the lottery up again, once the dust clears, so, there still could be a chance?? I think random scalpers are getting account set up and joining in on all the fun. I got one pair out of 2 shows requested. However, I did prioritize GA 1st, reserved 2nd.
Any way, I don't think 99% means 990 tickets with a 1000 people entering. I think it means, we can't make it a 100% because someone could sue us if we state it's a 100%. So at most... it will always be 99%.
Second, I do believe they fill up GA first. So if you pick reserve with #1 and GA with #2, you can win your #2 before you win your #1.
But this is the part that makes no sense to me at all. Let's take Jax...
I'm sure a lot of us picked Jax GA and Jax Reserved. Let's also say Jax reserved was 99% and then a bunch of people put in for Jax and it dropped to 97%. I don't think that's the case but who cares.
The part that I have trouble explaining is that a lot of us that picked both GA and Reserved won GA. Wouldn't that free up even more spots for people to win Reserved?
The only thing I can think of is a declined credit card or if maybe the system only took your first 8 choices and no one noticed?
It just doesn't make sense why people were shut out for a show like that.
92 - Orlando
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
Any way, I don't think 99% means 990 tickets with a 1000 people entering. I think it means, we can't make it a 100% because someone could sue us if we state it's a 100%. So at most... it will always be 99%.
Second, I do believe they fill up GA first. So if you pick reserve with #1 and GA with #2, you can win your #2 before you win your #1.
But this is the part that makes no sense to me at all. Let's take Jax...
I'm sure a lot of us picked Jax GA and Jax Reserved. Let's also say Jax reserved was 99% and then a bunch of people put in for Jax and it dropped to 97%. I don't think that's the case but who cares.
The part that I have trouble explaining is that a lot of us that picked both GA and Reserved won GA. Wouldn't that free up even more spots for people to win Reserved?
The only thing I can think of is a declined credit card or if maybe the system only took your first 8 choices and no one noticed?
It just doesn't make sense why people were shut out for a show like that.
Perhaps the allotment at the venue is wacky. In Euro venues it is reversed, there are far more GA tickets than Res... Just spitballin
Perhaps the allotment at the venue is wacky. In Euro venues it is reversed, there are far more GA tickets than Res... Just spitballin
some venues might have patrons that have shot at good seats and ten club doesn't get as many reserved. Grateful Dead in Chicago was a bonanza for Bears Season Ticket holders ...... They got the best seats in house. So would you say there are 700 people in pit? 350 pairs available? Raleigh would have a lot of good reserve seats as they don't have patron sales that I know about.
Comments
However, this would indicate 99% was a safe bet and why I made Raleigh my last choice (only had 4 choices). I never doubted I would get them because I was under the impression there was enough to go around
If you read the information given by 10C it is all pretty clear.
Odds at 99% for a show. 1000 requests for a pair of tickets.
With odds at 99%, 990 of 1000 requests will get a pair of tickets.
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (590 pairs remain)
Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (290 tickets remain)
Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (90 tickets remain)
Priority #4 - 50 people - 100% get tickets (40 tickets remain)
Priority #5 - 50 people - 40/50 get tickets - 80% chance
It seems like it would still be difficult to miss out on 3 shows that are at 99%.
The engineer in me is showing
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
Nuclear fission
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
I'll use your original example again.
Priority #1 - 400 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (600 tickets remain)
Priority #2 - 300 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (300 tickets remain)
Priority #3 - 200 people - all get tickets - 100% chance (100 tickets remain)
Priority #4 - 200 people - 50% get tickets (100/200) - 50% chance (No tickets remain)
Priority #5 and lower 900 people - 0% get tickets
In this ticket lottery, there were 16 shows, with 2 choices per show, for a total of 32 possible priority slots.
So in your example:
1st priority - 100% success
2nd priority - 100% success
3rd priority - 100% success
4th priority - 50% success
5th priority - 0% success
6th through 32nd priority - 0% success
If you take the % success at all 32 possible priority positions and average them, you get 10.94%. That is a calculation that could easily be done as the ticket requests come in with the information that would be available to 10c. They would know how many tickets are available, and they would know how many requests that they have at each priority position. To make this method even better, they would also have the ability to have their program logic throw out any priority buckets that had zero chances at all in them. (Example, in this scenario, if there were no priority picks at 16th priority and up, then all of those priority buckets at positions 16 and up could be thrown out, and that 10.94% 'average odds' across 32 buckets becomes 23.33%, because you'd only be averaging the odds of 15 priority buckets instead of 32 buckets).
I'm just having fun with possible ways to display odds vs demand. Your scenario is probably closer to the "odds" that were shown than mine was. I expected too much
Did anyone have success with a non-1st priority pick for any GA ticket? The highest displayed odds for any GA ticket was 51%. If the displayed odds were for 1st priority only, then nobody should have received a GA ticket with anything but 1st priority picks.
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
6/18/03 Chicago-United Center
5/17/06 Chicago-United Center
7/19/13 Chicago-Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh-Consol Energy Center
10/17/14 Moline-IWireless Center (No Code)
10/20/14 Milwaukee-Bradley center (Yield)
4/26/16 Lexington-Rupp Arena
8/20/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/18/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/20/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field
9/5/23 Chicago-United Center
9/7/23 Chicago-United Center
6/18/03 Chicago-United Center
5/17/06 Chicago-United Center
7/19/13 Chicago-Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh-Consol Energy Center
10/17/14 Moline-IWireless Center (No Code)
10/20/14 Milwaukee-Bradley center (Yield)
4/26/16 Lexington-Rupp Arena
8/20/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/18/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field
8/20/18 Chicago-Wrigley Field
9/5/23 Chicago-United Center
9/7/23 Chicago-United Center
To provide where the cutoff is between priority requests and tickets - something like
NYC #1 GA - 1st priority (Meaning if you don't put first you won't get tickets - even if put first you still might not depends on the lottery)
NYC #1 Seats - 2nd priority (You put first you get tickets - 2nd you have a chance - lower no tickets)
JAX GA - 3rd priority (You put 1st or 2nd you get tickets - 3rd you have a chance - lower no tickets)
JAX Seats - 7th priority(You put 1st-6th you get tickets - 7th you have a chance - lower - no tickets)
Perhaps people could follow that - and I think would be very helpful info to have. The wrinkle with this is the fact that actually fill GA before seats no matter the priority. I'm not sure why they do this. If for some reason they don't sell out of GA for a show they could have a second sale or offer to the public. I mean if everyone who put in for GA got GA then no one SHOULD complain.
Also, I got GA for Jacksonville with my second request.
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
I'm pretty sure you're right that all GA requests are filled first. There's a story on this message board of a guy who chose reserved for a certain show as a higher priority than GA for that same show, but he won the GA tickets and lost reserved.
I like the way that the lottery works... but there is room for improvement on how the "odds" are displayed
8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
4-16-03 - Charlotte
5-27-06 - Camden 1
5-28-06 - Camden 2
5-30-06 - DC
6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
6-22-08 - DC
5-13-10 - Bristow
10-27-13 - Baltimore
10-29-13 - Charlottesville
4-18-16 - Hampton
the pick is made from the pot of all priorities, but they only award the members who put it as their 1st priority. In the OP's situation, my explanation is her name didn't get pulled, and if it did, it was on a round that didn't match up; 2nd draw 2nd priority, 4th draw 4th priority. that's why they want us to prioritize.
they say that the odds reflects every time that show was selected by a member, regardless if it's 1st or 5th priority.
I believe on the "1st round" pick of any GA, say there are 500 tickets sales available, they pull 500 random names. out of the 500, on 100 of those names picked GA as the 1st priority, then they get awarded. now there are 400 ticket sales left . they put the 1st pull of remaining 400 names back in the pot, and draw another 400 random names, only 100 have selected that as their 2nd, so they get GA on their 2nd pick.
that's what I kind of believe, definitely would not bet my life on it. it's just a theory. but I think it explains some of the rarities that have occurred with the lottery results.
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
I think at some point PJ needs to limit number of shows for tickets on a tour. It might help local folks get tickets.
it took me awhile to wrap my head around it. it's a summary of explanations already on this board from prior tours. I didn't come up with it, I'm pretty sure.
if this theory is correct, or close, another thing that comes into play is that not everyone puts their names into all the hats. I only put in for lexington and tampa. so some of the hats are fuller than others, so our odds are affected that way vs. if everyone used up to their 16th choice.
I'm not saying this is exactly how it works, but I think it's something similar.
New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
Champaign IL 4/23/03
Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
Grand Rapids MI 19May06
Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
PJ 20 2011
Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
Missoula MT 2018
Maybe when someone is trying to do more then a few shows they might let ticket go to another member if you scored 4 shows and another member has none....They give it to the member with no shows.
So do they start with the first show of tour and go by date? or do they do the shows with the most or least requests.... I liked the old way when they just did lottery for 1st and 10th rows with out the pit. I usually ended up in first 15 rows. I haven't won GA last 2 USA tour.
Or if they could do the entire floor GA and have a pit with area behind then it would be more like U2 and all the fans who want floor could and then have a random way of selecting folks for pit on night of show. It was so fun to get Zinged for the Heart on U2 Elevation tour as they scanned your ticket and announced Pit wrist band for you.
SHOW COUNT: (149) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=89, US=109, CAN=15, Europe=19 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Sacramento, Vegas x2, Manchester, London, Chicago x2, NYC x2, Fenway x2, Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
As to the cases where someone missed out on a show they had as their 1st despite someone scoring that same show with their 2nd, perhaps the person that missed had a bad credit card, or maybe they scored their 2nd pick in the same city. Again, there could be some small idiosyncrasies in the program that we don't understand even though it sticks to the general framework as has been outlined in this thread.
Any way, I don't think 99% means 990 tickets with a 1000 people entering. I think it means, we can't make it a 100% because someone could sue us if we state it's a 100%. So at most... it will always be 99%.
Second, I do believe they fill up GA first. So if you pick reserve with #1 and GA with #2, you can win your #2 before you win your #1.
But this is the part that makes no sense to me at all. Let's take Jax...
I'm sure a lot of us picked Jax GA and Jax Reserved. Let's also say Jax reserved was 99% and then a bunch of people put in for Jax and it dropped to 97%. I don't think that's the case but who cares.
The part that I have trouble explaining is that a lot of us that picked both GA and Reserved won GA. Wouldn't that free up even more spots for people to win Reserved?
The only thing I can think of is a declined credit card or if maybe the system only took your first 8 choices and no one noticed?
It just doesn't make sense why people were shut out for a show like that.
03 - Tampa
08 - Tampa
12 - DeLuna Fest, EV Orlando 1 & 2, EV Ft Lauderdale 1 & 2
13 - Wrigley!!! ,Brooklyn 1 & 2, Hartford, OKC, Seattle
14 - Leeds, Milton Keynes, St Louis
16 - Ft Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Wrigley 1 & 2
Perhaps the allotment at the venue is wacky. In Euro venues it is reversed, there are far more GA tickets than Res... Just spitballin
some venues might have patrons that have shot at good seats and ten club doesn't get as many reserved. Grateful Dead in Chicago was a bonanza for Bears Season Ticket holders ......
They got the best seats in house. So would you say there are 700 people in pit? 350 pairs available? Raleigh would have a lot of good reserve seats as they don't have patron sales that I know about.