Here are some tips on how to play the lottery

longroad84 · July 2013

Just a random thought with nothing to support it but WHAT IF.....

...the 10c has modeled the ticketing system after the NBA lottery. They just don't want to try to explain it to everyone because its kind of complicated This would mean that people who entered 1st choice would have highest probability followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect. The important distinction is that those are only probabilities. They wouldn't just go down the line of all the people who entered 1st and 2nd and so on. In this scenario it is possible for a 10th choice to win over a 1st choice although unlikely. I'm not a computer programmer but I think this would be pretty easy to do.

Not sure if that would even affect anyone's outlook on the system but I think it would be kinda cool. Whatever

Spencer · July 2013

There's no way there's anywhere near 500k 10C members.

The membership numbers are up around that now but that doesn't bear any relation to how many of those are still-active memberships.

longroad84 · July 2013

jakesbluskyhome wrote:

It's about 500 thousand. But keep in mind that's world wide. But ya it's a lot. I'd guess there are at least 100,00 in US who are huge fans that will enter. But devide that by about 23. That's why I figured around 5000 per show would enter lottery. Who knows though

New members have numbers in the 500,000 range but there are tens and probably hundreds of thousands who have not renewed over the years and lost their numbers. I know people who had 100,XXX numbers who are now in the 200,XXX range.

jakesbluskyhome · July 2013

Ah, and excellent point that I had overlooked! Well then, the chances are looking better and better

man I love this community! At the end of the day all we all want is some pj in our lives

wingend · July 2013

If it helps, I joined on May 6th (knowing that a tour was coming) and my # is 497,678. I assume that my number includes all people who have ever signed up for Ten Club, so that the "dead" #s are still in between myself and #1.

This is a great thread, and very well thought out. By the way, I'm trying for Pittsburgh. It is an awful, mean city. It is very likely that Jeff Ament's cap will be stolen and he will be in a bad mood. It will probably rain on the day of the PJ show, and there is a 90% chance that the power will go out at the new arena*. I advise everyone to try for GA in another city.

*all of the above statements may be completely false.

demetrios · July 2013

This lottery .. is tearing me apart!!! :(

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Let's say you're trying for 4 shows.

Go the 1 RS, 2 RS, 3 RS, 4 RS, 1 GA, 2 GA, 3 GA, 4 GA route.

Or 1 RS, 1 GA, 2 RS, 2 GA, 3 RS, 3 GA, 4 RS, 4 GA route.

mookieb10 · July 2013

There was just an article saying 10c has 200k active members, give or take. Also, why do we forget that if there are 500 tix, only 250 members will win. 2 tix each.

nycmale · July 2013

I agree with longroad84 about doing the tickets like the nba lottery, but I found this in the tickets faq so it looks like they are not modeling the lottery after the nba after all. Here is what it says:

How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?

A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold.

know1 · July 2013

jakesbluskyhome wrote:

1. If you pick regular seating as your #1, especially in a smaller market, it is highly likely you'll win.

Unless a bunch of people get online and read this advice and decide that is the route to go.

JB128716 · July 2013

nycmale wrote:

I agree with longroad84 about doing the tickets like the nba lottery, but I found this in the tickets faq so it looks like they are not modeling the lottery after the nba after all. Here is what it says:

How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?

A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold.

This is correct. My point being that people that pick GA for Philly night 1 and GA for Philly night 2 have no chance for their 2nd pick.

Also keep in mind this... it is common for a fan club to get about 10% of the venue's inventory. So a 18,000 seat arena would give you approximatelly 1,800 seats. Now 10c might have some pull to get a larger supply, but it's not common. Then again, they secured a lot of seats for Wrigley.

I just know people are going to get shut out because they don't fully understand the rules. I got shut out of the first Wrigley drawing because I didn't understand how small the GA section was. That's not 10c's fault, that's my fault. If I knew it was so small and the field seats were so large, I would have picked the field seats.

During that drawing, they made it to the 2nd picks for the field seats (meaning not enough people picked it as their priority 1 as everyone was going for GA). If I would have picked the field seat, I would have won.

Luckily, I did this during the 2nd chance lottery for Wrigley and got in.

I also read the same article as the previous poster that there are approximately 250,000 active members.

Good luck everyone!!!

CranMalReign · July 2013

So I, too, was initially very pessimistic about getting 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance shows. Then I read this:

For LA, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia you may enter for both performance dates for each city, but can only be drawn for one of the two dates. These are cities where we often have more fans than tickets available; therefore we must limit our members to only being drawn for one of two nights to spread the love around the Ten Club as much as possible.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it's not hard to infer that many of the smaller markets end up with more 10c seats than 10c ticket purchasers. What does that mean? Well, if that inference is true, then picking any of the smaller markets at any position gives you a pretty good shot at scoring tickets. Makes me feel pretty good about my Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Baltimore picks... but I guess we'll see.

jjax97 · July 2013

I hate to mention it, but: There's always the possibility of missing on the lottery and getting tix July 27th. My wife and I are going for 4 or 5 shows, so it seems unlikely that our 3rd or 4th pick on will see much life.

pjsteelerfan · July 2013

CranMalReign wrote:

So I, too, was initially very pessimistic about getting 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance shows. Then I read this:

For LA, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia you may enter for both performance dates for each city, but can only be drawn for one of the two dates. These are cities where we often have more fans than tickets available; therefore we must limit our members to only being drawn for one of two nights to spread the love around the Ten Club as much as possible.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it's not hard to infer that many of the smaller markets end up with more 10c seats than 10c ticket purchasers. What does that mean? Well, if that inference is true, then picking any of the smaller markets at any position gives you a pretty good shot at scoring tickets. Makes me feel pretty good about my Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Baltimore picks... but I guess we'll see.

Technically Pitt, Buffalo, and Baltimore won't be much smaller markets. Pitt will get all the people form Ohio, WV, Indiana, Michigan etc. Buffalo will get all the Toronto and Canada area people. Baltimore will get a lot of DC, Philly, south Jersey people. My guess is Charlotte, OKC, Phoenix, Spokane, and Calgary will be the easiest shows for tickets. Curious to see how Dallas sells.

CranMalReign · July 2013

pjsteelerfan wrote:

Technically Pitt, Buffalo, and Baltimore won't be much smaller markets. Pitt will get all the people form Ohio, WV, Indiana, Michigan etc. Buffalo will get all the Toronto and Canada area people. Baltimore will get a lot of DC, Philly, south Jersey people. My guess is Charlotte, OKC, Phoenix, Spokane, and Calgary will be the easiest shows for tickets. Curious to see how Dallas sells.

Why do you have to make me sad?

Spiritual_Chaos · July 2013

CranMalReign wrote:

So I, too, was initially very pessimistic about getting 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance shows. Then I read this:

For LA, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia you may enter for both performance dates for each city, but can only be drawn for one of the two dates. These are cities where we often have more fans than tickets available; therefore we must limit our members to only being drawn for one of two nights to spread the love around the Ten Club as much as possible.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it's not hard to infer that many of the smaller markets end up with more 10c seats than 10c ticket purchasers. What does that mean? Well, if that inference is true, then picking any of the smaller markets at any position gives you a pretty good shot at scoring tickets. Makes me feel pretty good about my Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Baltimore picks... but I guess we'll see.

These are cities where we often have more fans than tickets available

=

These are cities where we often have A LOT more fans than tickets available

know1 · July 2013

pjsteelerfan wrote:

Technically Pitt, Buffalo, and Baltimore won't be much smaller markets. Pitt will get all the people form Ohio, WV, Indiana, Michigan etc. Buffalo will get all the Toronto and Canada area people. Baltimore will get a lot of DC, Philly, south Jersey people. My guess is Charlotte, OKC, Phoenix, Spokane, and Calgary will be the easiest shows for tickets. Curious to see how Dallas sells.

I'm not so sure about Charlotte being easy. It's South Eastern-most city on that leg and relatively close to Atlanta.

pjsteelerfan · July 2013

CranMalReign wrote:

pjsteelerfan wrote:

Technically Pitt, Buffalo, and Baltimore won't be much smaller markets. Pitt will get all the people form Ohio, WV, Indiana, Michigan etc. Buffalo will get all the Toronto and Canada area people. Baltimore will get a lot of DC, Philly, south Jersey people. My guess is Charlotte, OKC, Phoenix, Spokane, and Calgary will be the easiest shows for tickets. Curious to see how Dallas sells.

Why do you have to make me sad?

Sorry :oops: I am trying for Pitt and Baltimore as well. With the way the lottery is split now for each show, I don't think my chances for 10c tickets to any show is good. Whole reason I am avoiding shows further north.

BinFrog · July 2013

Considering this is the first time they have done this, and as far as I know there is no other band with a fanclub ticketing system to compare this system to, I think it's safe to say there are no real "tips" yet. After the lottery ends, and we all see how we fared, it might be helpful for the next tour. But for now we're sort of stuck guessing.

Vytis33 · July 2013

I put in for a couple shows I want to hit, but you all realize there's still going to be a public sale for 90% of the tickets right?

know1 · July 2013

Vytis33 wrote:

I put in for a couple shows I want to hit, but you all realize there's still going to be a public sale for 90% of the tickets right?

That's what some seem to be missing. If they want to go to a show, they can likely still go if the lottery doesn't work for them.

Here are some tips on how to play the lottery

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