Here are some tips on how to play the lottery

JB128716

I've seen some interesting strategies on here and on FB and thought I would give some tips on what you should do and when to have the best experience with the lottery. I live in Florida and hopefully we will be on another leg but we were shut out with today's announcement. I'm also a computer programmer and pretty good with math and odds. I don't work for the 10c, don't have connections, etc... just a fan like you.

Here we go:

Let's assume 10c can secure 3000 tickets per show. 500 for GA and 2500 for lower bowl. I made up these numbers and they are not really important but feel free to put your own realistic numbers in here.

For the larger markets (NY, Philly, etc...) you have to assume that more than 3000 10c members will be trying for these shows as their priority 1. Each show should have plenty of 10c members going after tickets for these markets. If you believe this like I do, then you can never win with your priority 2. Rule #1, don't waste your priority #2 on a big market.

You have to assume that more than 500 people at each show will put in for the GA for every show. If you believe this like I do, you can never win with a priority #2 for the GA section so don't waste your pick there.

If you can only go to a local show, pick the floor seats as your odds are better to get in the building. If you are in NY or Philly, I would highly recommend you do this method as your odds will be better. And if you have a low number, you will be right next to the stage (maybe even on Mike's side) so stop your bitching.

Use your priority #2 for smaller markets. Personally, I think very few people will win with their priority #2, but I could be wrong. I really can't see anyone winning with a priority #3 or priority #4. Again, I know no more than you, but if you believe in my math, my theory holds up.

Now if you are like me and don't have a local show, go for the gold like I am. Pick a big market and go for the GA. If you win, it will make the flights, hotels, etc... worth it. If you lose, you weren't going anyway. If you live in the North East, pick a gold show for the West Coast leg (leg 3) and try the same strategy.

I have a feeling most people will get their priority 1, people that always pick GA may get shut out, and few people will actually get two shows.

For the group, it means a new group of people in the front every night. I understand why some people would hate this, but I think it's great. It's great for the band and it's great for the lucky ones that will win GA.

Best of luck to everyone and never pay above face value.

Wrigley here I come!!!!

amethgr8

You have to assume that more than 500 people at each show will put in for the GA for every show. If you believe this like I do, you can never win with a priority #2 for the GA section so don't waste your pick there."

I think never is a big word. 10c said only commit only to as many shows.., it's possible you could win all. no one can put in two #1's and so the infinite possibilities of whos travel plans, work/kid days, who can I visit while I'm there, show preferences will determine and absolutely no way to figure out, how and when the #3, #4 picks come into play or not. maybe they come into play on two shows, who knows which ones, and they don't come into play on others.

it's a freak of a lottery system I can tell you that. it's been fun thus far, kind of brings us together wouldn't you say?

cheers!

amy

Suziemay

Appreciate your analysis, it's helping me think through my strategy

RFTC

good stuff, thanks for your insight. was waiting on someone smarter than i to offer some statistical logic in playing the pj lottery.

jakesbluskyhome

I would basically completely agree with all of this analysis. I'm no mathematician but I actually thought of all these logistics myself and was wondering if anyone else was thinking in similar strategic terms. After a lot of thinking and calculating I've come to the same conclusion that:
1. If you pick regular seating as your #1, especially in a smaller market, it is highly likely you'll win.
2. GA at all shows, particularly larger markets, will definitely be heavily sought after. I'd guess it could be thousands that might opt for GA. That said the pit won't be that large since they are only using up to half, so lets say there are 500 available spots. If 5000 people were to choose GA for that show, you'd have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. So naturally, using your #1 on GA anywhere is risky, because it could leave you hanging with no tix since the chances of winning on your #2 is very slight. Buuuut I think everyone is in agreeance that seeing pj on the pit would be a once in a lifetime experience, so there's really no question about what my #1 will be. And to play it smart perhaps I'll put my #2 as a regular seating at a smaller market. Then mayybe I'll land a ticket. But other than that there's no way you'll win. If you think logically, the way the 10c does it the #3 and subsequent picks are useless (unless of course noone enters for a particular show).

Just my 2 cents! I think it would behoove us all to try and play this lottery system the best we can! Best of luck to all!

-jake

amethgr8

why do they say, only put in for as many shows as you're willing to attend if #3, #4, etc. picks could be easily negated by a theory?

amy

ItIsAllAboutPJ

I have so much thinking to do my head hurts :? .....thankfully my son and I both have memberships so we should get something.
But I want more.... we all want more....

Dissident67

Like everyone else, I'm doing my best to think of the best strategy for securing tickets. There is just one thought that keeps crossing my mind, this is all it says about priority on the ticketing info [that I've seen at least] -

"Names will be selected for each ticket type taking your priority into consideration"

While I agree that it is obviously going to be harder to win tickets that aren't your 1st priority, this statement doesn't exactly say that not a single person who has a show ranked 2nd or 3rd or even 8th priority will not get tickets if there are enough 1st priority bids to secure all the tickets. Its still a lottery, right? Theoretically, there will be people who win tickets to shows lower on their priority lists?

I'm not saying this is at all likely but I don't really agree with the logic that if you use your 2nd priority on something that you are throwing it away. Also I could be completely wrong, this has just been what I've been thinking.

KingJeremyD

Should we really have to put this much thought into purchasing a ticket to a concert?......10c really makes it easy....

bobby dazzlers

put it all on black

jakesbluskyhome

To Amy and all that don't seem to be quite understanding:

The lottery goes by how many people enter, like any lottery. Therefore the more the people enter, the lower the chances. Thus, lets say there are maybe 3000 tix allotted to the ten club. And lets say 700 are GA. So, for example, if 2100 people enter for GA at this show as their #1, those people will have a 1 in 3 chance of winning. And anyone who put it as their #2 or later will get nothing. So it can be assumed if you don't put GA as your #1, you're not getting GA.

And lets say for this same show there is now 2300 seats left for 10c members. So, for example, if 4600 people enter their #1 as those seats, they have a 1 in 2 chance. In this scenario once again the #2 and later picks will be useless.

The only way a #2 pick would work in that scenario is if Less than 2300 people were to enter for those seats as their #1. Only then will the remaining seats go on lottery for people who put it as their #2.

So logically, if you break it down, the odds of a #3 or later pick winning you anything is slim to none. Of course that won't stop me from trying!

-jake

jakesbluskyhome

Oh and it should be said that naturally I have no clue how many seats are allotted to the 10c, and of those how many will be GA. And of course I also have no way to know how many people will enter the lottery for each city. So it is entirely possible your 3rd or 4th or even 12th choice could score you tix. That is if only a few hundred people enter for that city. Hmm I wonder what te chances of that are with fanatics like us...

Smellyman

bummer.

I was under the impression that if NY is your #1 you could put your name in for both GA and Seated

If Philly was your #2, you put your name in for both GA and Seated.

I take it this is not the case?

longroad84

I think there's some fuzzy math going on here. I don't have a problem with the original post but there's a decent chance these hypothetical numbers being used are quite a ways off. I find it hard believe that there are significantly more reserved seats available than GA. 1/3 to 1/2 of an arena floor can fit a lot of people. I think the proportion has to be significantly higher than 1:5 (500:2500). Again, I know the numbers were just thrown out there and I'm not trying to attack anyone.

Given that I believe those numbers are skewed, I think the idea that anything after 1st or 2nd priority is pointless is also misguided. I don't believe the number of members bidding on each show as there 1st or 2nd priority is enough to dry up all the tickets. I don't frequent this board but I've gone to multiple shows on many tours and find it hard to believe that the demand has really grown that much. If anything the 10c has access to more tickets with the Pit.

I have no more info than anyone else but I don't think the situation is as bleak as people make it out to be. Having said that I'm only going for two shows and will be totally content with one.

Good luck

Zod

Smellyman wrote:

bummer.

I was under the impression that if NY is your #1 you could put your name in for both GA and Seated

If Philly was your #2, you put your name in for both GA and Seated.

I take it this is not the case?

There's two options for each city: GA or Seated. You have to enter them seperately. So GA is pref #1, and seated is pref #2, so if you ad a 2nd show, it might only be pref #3.

TT98

I just want to sleep until the draw.. can't stand the thought of missing out completely to this new system :?

longroad84

jakesbluskyhome wrote:

Oh and it should be said that naturally I have no clue how many seats are allotted to the 10c, and of those how many will be GA. And of course I also have no way to know how many people will enter the lottery for each city. So it is entirely possible your 3rd or 4th or even 12th choice could score you tix. That is if only a few hundred people enter for that city. Hmm I wonder what te chances of that are with fanatics like us...

Saw this after my post...completely agree with what you've said.

Smellyman

Zod wrote:

Smellyman wrote:

bummer.

I was under the impression that if NY is your #1 you could put your name in for both GA and Seated

If Philly was your #2, you put your name in for both GA and Seated.

I take it this is not the case?

There's two options for each city: GA or Seated. You have to enter them seperately. So GA is pref #1, and seated is pref #2, so if you ad a 2nd show, it might only be pref #3.

thanks

I would almost prefer going by senority and snail mail again.

jakesbluskyhome

I can understand how you'd feel those numbers are off. And I really hope you're right. I just think the original poster and I are trying to err on the side of conservatism. As for how many people enter the lottery, I merely guessed it'd be thousands cuz I thought there woukd be many interested. I could be wrong. I hope I am, better chances for the diehards! :P

Best of luck to all, whatever your "strategy" is

Smellyman

I doubt it but....does anyone have the numbers of active memberships?

jakesbluskyhome

It's about 500 thousand. But keep in mind that's world wide. But ya it's a lot. I'd guess there are at least 100,00 in US who are huge fans that will enter. But devide that by about 23. That's why I figured around 5000 per show would enter lottery. Who knows though

longroad84

Just a random thought with nothing to support it but WHAT IF.....

...the 10c has modeled the ticketing system after the NBA lottery. They just don't want to try to explain it to everyone because its kind of complicated This would mean that people who entered 1st choice would have highest probability followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect. The important distinction is that those are only probabilities. They wouldn't just go down the line of all the people who entered 1st and 2nd and so on. In this scenario it is possible for a 10th choice to win over a 1st choice although unlikely. I'm not a computer programmer but I think this would be pretty easy to do.

Not sure if that would even affect anyone's outlook on the system but I think it would be kinda cool. Whatever

Spencer

There's no way there's anywhere near 500k 10C members.

The membership numbers are up around that now but that doesn't bear any relation to how many of those are still-active memberships.

longroad84

jakesbluskyhome wrote:

It's about 500 thousand. But keep in mind that's world wide. But ya it's a lot. I'd guess there are at least 100,00 in US who are huge fans that will enter. But devide that by about 23. That's why I figured around 5000 per show would enter lottery. Who knows though

New members have numbers in the 500,000 range but there are tens and probably hundreds of thousands who have not renewed over the years and lost their numbers. I know people who had 100,XXX numbers who are now in the 200,XXX range.

jakesbluskyhome

Ah, and excellent point that I had overlooked! Well then, the chances are looking better and better man I love this community! At the end of the day all we all want is some pj in our lives

wingend

If it helps, I joined on May 6th (knowing that a tour was coming) and my # is 497,678. I assume that my number includes all people who have ever signed up for Ten Club, so that the "dead" #s are still in between myself and #1.

This is a great thread, and very well thought out. By the way, I'm trying for Pittsburgh. It is an awful, mean city. It is very likely that Jeff Ament's cap will be stolen and he will be in a bad mood. It will probably rain on the day of the PJ show, and there is a 90% chance that the power will go out at the new arena*. I advise everyone to try for GA in another city.

*all of the above statements may be completely false.

demetrios

This lottery .. is tearing me apart!!! :(



Let's say you're trying for 4 shows.

Go the 1 RS, 2 RS, 3 RS, 4 RS, 1 GA, 2 GA, 3 GA, 4 GA route.

Or 1 RS, 1 GA, 2 RS, 2 GA, 3 RS, 3 GA, 4 RS, 4 GA route.

mookieb10

There was just an article saying 10c has 200k active members, give or take. Also, why do we forget that if there are 500 tix, only 250 members will win. 2 tix each.

nycmale

I agree with longroad84 about doing the tickets like the nba lottery, but I found this in the tickets faq so it looks like they are not modeling the lottery after the nba after all. Here is what it says:

How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?

A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold.

know1

jakesbluskyhome wrote:

1. If you pick regular seating as your #1, especially in a smaller market, it is highly likely you'll win.

Unless a bunch of people get online and read this advice and decide that is the route to go.

JB128716

nycmale wrote:

I agree with longroad84 about doing the tickets like the nba lottery, but I found this in the tickets faq so it looks like they are not modeling the lottery after the nba after all. Here is what it says:

How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?

A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold.

This is correct. My point being that people that pick GA for Philly night 1 and GA for Philly night 2 have no chance for their 2nd pick.

Also keep in mind this... it is common for a fan club to get about 10% of the venue's inventory. So a 18,000 seat arena would give you approximatelly 1,800 seats. Now 10c might have some pull to get a larger supply, but it's not common. Then again, they secured a lot of seats for Wrigley.

I just know people are going to get shut out because they don't fully understand the rules. I got shut out of the first Wrigley drawing because I didn't understand how small the GA section was. That's not 10c's fault, that's my fault. If I knew it was so small and the field seats were so large, I would have picked the field seats.

During that drawing, they made it to the 2nd picks for the field seats (meaning not enough people picked it as their priority 1 as everyone was going for GA). If I would have picked the field seat, I would have won.

Luckily, I did this during the 2nd chance lottery for Wrigley and got in.

I also read the same article as the previous poster that there are approximately 250,000 active members.

Good luck everyone!!!