Here are some tips on how to play the lottery

helplessdancer

bonowall wrote:

I don't want to suggest that this is all fact - I am interested to see if anyone has tried it and found out that both options for all shows are still intact. If it ISN'T then i can see a bunch of us getting pissed...specifically because, as you said, nothing should be decided at this point.

I am hoping someone can confirm that what my friend saw was simply an error or glitch.

Cheers.

i will be putting in 4 requests for 2 shows-not hot markets
GA 1st and 2nd choice
RESERVED 3rd and 4th choice

gosh i hope this is the best way to do it...

i will post only if i have a problem
i'm gonna do this tomorrow(friday)

Off He Goes... In Chicago

This thread is amazing and stressful. The only thing I can add that I haven't seen mentioned is SMALL MARKETS on WEEKDAYS would probably be your best shot. I'm traveling to these shows and the first thing I looked at was which shows fall on the weekend so I can avoid using vacation days.

For example, I'd like to request Dallas and LA, but those are going to be insanely hard to get and they fall on the weekend increasing the chances of people coming in for the show. If you can, find a small show during the week, like San Diego and I think your chances improve greatly.

Still debating on which show I'll request, but I have GA/PIT for Wrigley so you'll hear no complaints from me.

Good Luck to everyone trying...

longroad84

Nah don't go for San Diego

Vart

The wife and I are planning to go to 4 shows - Hartford, Baltimore, Charlottesville and Charlotte.

We have already placed our lottery picks, but now that I've thought about it I'm not sure we used the right strategy. The two show we most want 10C tickets for are Hartford and Baltimore. This is how we ranked our picks:

Me
1. Hartford
2. Baltimore
3. Charlottesville
4. Charlotte

Her
1. Baltimore
2. Hartford
3. Charlottesville
4. Charlotte

Does this give us the best chance to get tickets to Hartford and Baltimore? Should we just assume that neither of these show will have enough 10C tickets to make it to the 2 choice people and just pick the one we really want 10C tickets for and each rank that as number 1? I figure our 3 and 4 choice don't really matter since chances are slim there will be enough 10C tickets to get to those.

All of these are for reserved seats. We don't want GA.

nupur1586

Leezestarr313 wrote:

bonowall wrote:

This is a great (and painful) thread - too much thinking.

A couple of random questions:

- when the lottery window opened, I opted for the 5 shows I wanted to attend, 4 GA and 1 Reserved. Then a friend of mine wen in later that afternoon and went to enter for one of those shows as well - PHX. She asked me if i was given the option between GA / Reserved to which I told her...yes. She said that she was only given the Reserved option in entering the lottery. Has anyone who has queued up on that first day (or since) cancelled their "plan" and re-entered their information to find certain options NOT AVAILABLE?
- Based on the comments here, I am considering cancelling my existing strategy and tweaking the options a bit but, because of the experience of my friend in trying for GA PHX (not being there) and this antiquated (F5) mentality that, for some reason, the timing of your entries has some impact on the drawing (which i know it doens't..hence lottery), i am reluctant to try. Has anyone done it or have you all "locked in".

Thanks and good luck to you all!

I've changed the order of my entries today ... moved GA as my first priority , and I could see all options as available.. might've been a glitch i guess..

amethgr8

I have changed my choices twice, probably over a 2-3 day period. I did my last adjustment this morning, seeing Portland was thanksgiving weekend.

I've see all the options. I would suggest she clear her cache, cookies, etc and try it again.

I don't know, but I don't think changing your choices has any impact on your chances of getting tickets. the tenclub states you can go in and edit your choices.

JUST SO GLAD THEY GIVE US A WEEKEND TO THINK THIS THRU!

AMY

hugepjfan

The only way that I can think of that seniority will matter in a true lottery system is if the higher your number the more ping pong balls (so to speak) you will have in the population therefore increasing your chances. Much like professional sports drafts. How else could it be done fairly?

tubes10s

I've read through this thread, and I've read through the ticket lottery explanations that I could find on the PJ website.

I see ZERO reason to believe that the only way that a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc priority choice can only be chosen if the requested number of 1st priority requests is less than the tickets available. If this were the case, then this wouldn't be a lottery at all.

TightropeHigher

For the past two years I've saved up money and time off to give everything to my 10C ticket order for this very tour and to finally follow an entire leg....only to find out that this lottery system is fucking my plans. I have a feeling my 22nd choice won't be fulfilled....

i have a feeling of being greedy, but then i remember that i deserve every bit of it. Pearl Jam...please take my $1300.

rollings

longroad84 wrote:

Just a random thought with nothing to support it but WHAT IF.....

...the 10c has modeled the ticketing system after the NBA lottery. They just don't want to try to explain it to everyone because its kind of complicated This would mean that people who entered 1st choice would have highest probability followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect. The important distinction is that those are only probabilities. They wouldn't just go down the line of all the people who entered 1st and 2nd and so on. In this scenario it is possible for a 10th choice to win over a 1st choice although unlikely. I'm not a computer programmer but I think this would be pretty easy to do.

Not sure if that would even affect anyone's outlook on the system but I think it would be kinda cool. Whatever

The FAQ section says that "second choice" will only have a chance to win if there are tickets left after the "1st choicers" round is through.

rollings

tubes10s wrote:

I've read through this thread, and I've read through the ticket lottery explanations that I could find on the PJ website.

I see ZERO reason to believe that the only way that a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc priority choice can only be chosen if the requested number of 1st priority requests is less than the tickets available. If this were the case, then this wouldn't be a lottery at all.

This is exactly the case tho

rollings

This from the FAQ section tab, right next to where you made your ticket selection:

Q: How does the show priority selection factor in to the drawing?

A: For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system will randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold.

I know.

It's so hard to believe that rare will be the person who scores two shows in any leg

Spencer

I think there's a (small) chance you could score multiple shows if you put three different shows as priorities 1, 2 & 3 provided that picks 2 & 3 were reserved and not in one of the larger markets.

Still something of a long shot, especially for that third show, however.

dimitrispearljam

Spencer wrote:

I think there's a (small) chance you could score multiple shows if you put three different shows as priorities 1, 2 & 3 provided that picks 2 & 3 were reserved and not in one of the larger markets.

Still something of a long shot, especially for that third show, however.

i think this is very logic

Spencer

dimitrispearljam wrote:

Spencer wrote:

I think there's a (small) chance you could score multiple shows if you put three different shows as priorities 1, 2 & 3 provided that picks 2 & 3 were reserved and not in one of the larger markets.

Still something of a long shot, especially for that third show, however.

i think this is very logic

Would you believe I can't find a decent copy of Supertramp's "The Logical Song" on YouTube to post in response?

What a pisser.

Vart

Vart wrote:

The wife and I are planning to go to 4 shows - Hartford, Baltimore, Charlottesville and Charlotte.

We have already placed our lottery picks, but now that I've thought about it I'm not sure we used the right strategy. The two show we most want 10C tickets for are Hartford and Baltimore. This is how we ranked our picks:

Me
1. Hartford
2. Baltimore
3. Charlottesville
4. Charlotte

Her
1. Baltimore
2. Hartford
3. Charlottesville
4. Charlotte

Does this give us the best chance to get tickets to Hartford and Baltimore? Should we just assume that neither of these show will have enough 10C tickets to make it to the 2 choice people and just pick the one we really want 10C tickets for and each rank that as number 1? I figure our 3 and 4 choice don't really matter since chances are slim there will be enough 10C tickets to get to those.

All of these are for reserved seats. We don't want GA.

I got all four of my choices! Not sure about the wife yet.

longroad84

rollings wrote:

longroad84 wrote:

Just a random thought with nothing to support it but WHAT IF.....

...the 10c has modeled the ticketing system after the NBA lottery. They just don't want to try to explain it to everyone because its kind of complicated This would mean that people who entered 1st choice would have highest probability followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect. The important distinction is that those are only probabilities. They wouldn't just go down the line of all the people who entered 1st and 2nd and so on. In this scenario it is possible for a 10th choice to win over a 1st choice although unlikely. I'm not a computer programmer but I think this would be pretty easy to do.

Not sure if that would even affect anyone's outlook on the system but I think it would be kinda cool. Whatever

The FAQ section says that "second choice" will only have a chance to win if there are tickets left after the "1st choicers" round is through.

I saw that FAQ but it could be interpreted a couple of ways. It looks like not all "1st choicers" won before they moved on to "second choice", etc. I won GA tix with my 3rd choice while others lost their 1st choice for the same show. It looks like that happened to several people who have posted...

bicyclejoe

Great analysis. I'm a journalist and math geek with a love for statistics, which is why I'm good with finding red flags in government budgets. I wanted to see them in Seattle. Given your rules of demand/market vs. expectation divided by ticket allocation, I picked Portland reserved seating the day after Thanksgiving as my one and only choice. I don't know if I was guaranteed, but I was confident. And I got my pick.

Leezestarr313

longroad84 wrote:

I saw that FAQ but it could be interpreted a couple of ways. It looks like not all "1st choicers" won before they moved on to "second choice", etc. I won GA tix with my 3rd choice while others lost their 1st choice for the same show. It looks like that happened to several people who have posted...

I noticed that too. As I interpreted the FAQs this wouldn't happen. That kind of means that everything is possible, so why even bother what to make your first, second or whatever priority? :crazy: In all fairness of the new system that is something that doesn't seem fair.

what dreams

Spencer wrote:

I think there's a (small) chance you could score multiple shows if you put three different shows as priorities 1, 2 & 3 provided that picks 2 & 3 were reserved and not in one of the larger markets.

Still something of a long shot, especially for that third show, however.

Exactly what I did and I got both.

Priority 1 -- Charlottesville reserved
Priority 2 -- Baltimore reserved

Didn't enter a third because I didn't want to pay for more than two.

If you check out the thread on "getting everything you wanted" (can't remember what it's called exactly), it looks like most of the people who got what they wanted played it straight and simple.