Here are some tips on how to play the lottery

13

Comments

  • schappschapp Posts: 160
    MG79478 wrote:
    And this is the #1 reason the lottery sucks, and everyone has worse odds than with F5.

    I cannot complain; I got tickets for all the shows I wanted to via F5. But I believe the lottery is more fair.
    Tix from ticketmaster should be pretty easy if you don't win lottery. Not for GA but for some decent tix

    At least in my experience, getting tix from Ticketmaster is a pain. They fly, specially here in NYC.
  • schappschapp Posts: 160
    bchagnon wrote:
    This is how this should have worked:

    priority picks should have been for the show only, with an option to be considered for our to opt out of GA.

    Once selected for a show, seating is based on preference (either opt in or out of GA consideration), and then based on seniority.

    Brian

    I fully agree. That way, our options #3 and above for shows in other markets would have a better shot.

    Now, remember that if someone is just targeting one large market and all 4 entries are for that same city, a lot of #1 and #2 options might get void. In my opinion, that would give opportunity for a bunch of #3 options (and perhaps #4s?) to get tickets.
  • I've pondered this all day. It's really quite simple what to do.

    1) Put your #1 priority on your local show or if there is no local show for you on the closest and hopefully smaller market towns

    2) Never select GA and Reserved for the same show unless you only want to attend one show because your next show becomes priority three. No one knows the math, especially how many 10 clubbers go for a show, but I sense priority three could be a long shot luck of the draw deal

    3) Don't select a single show you don't want or can't afford, or for whatever reason are very unlikely to attend. You just might win and lose $160 while you lower the odds for someone else

    4) Rely on public sale if you lose, don't fuss over it, and just be happy if you win one through 10C
    |9.5.93Gorge|2.6.95Moore|5.7.98AROSpace|7.21.98Seattle|7.22.98Seattle|10.21.00PHX|11.5.00Seattle
    |11.6.00Seattle|6.6.03Vegas|6.7.03PHX|5.25.06Boston|7.22.06Gorge|7.23.06Gorge|9.21.09Seattle|9.22.09Seattle |10.6.09LA|11.19.13PHX|11.29.13Portland|12.6.13Seattle |10.22.14Denver| 8.8.18 Seattle | 8.10.18 Seattle

    EV Solo |7.15.11 Benaroya|7.16.11 Benaroya|4.13.12PHX|10.30.14Redmond|
    TOTD 11.11.16 San Fran
  • drew42edrew42e Posts: 74
    Overly simple math: Let's say for 23 shows they have 500 pairs for GA and 800 pairs for reserved (2600 tix/16-20k a show somewhere around 12-15%) that's roughly 30,000 pairs available in total. If there are 200k active 10club members, how many will put in for tickets given many are not in US or close to cities with a show, or not able to go? 50k? 60k? so I think you have roughly a 50-60% chance to "win" tickets, although it is clearly skewed by city, a little less for bigger cities and more for smaller ones. If you think a little more pairs per show its higher, or more entries in total its lower but its probably in that neighborhood.
    9/8/98 Newark, NJ, 10/31/00 Mountain View, CA, 10/20/01 Mountain View, CA (Bridge School 15), 7/6/06 Las Vegas, NV, 8/28/09 SF, CA, 10/31/09 Philly, PA, 10/23/10 Mountain View, CA (Bridge School 24), 09/03/11 Alpine Valley, WI, 11/23/13 LA1, 10/20/14 Milwaukee, WI
  • morellomorello Auckland, New Zealand Posts: 6,217
    Snagging for tips. Coming from NZ, really hoping for 10c GA for all shows LA-Seattle(minus Calgary). Good luck everyone!! :)
    <hr>
    PJ - Auckland 2009; Alpine Valley1&2 2011; Man1, Am'dam1&2, Berlin1&2, Stockholm, Oslo & Copenhagen 2012; LA, Oakland, Portland, Spokane, Calgary, Vancouver, Seattle 2013; Auckland 2014, Auckland1&2 2024
    EV - Canberra, Newcastle & Sydney 1&2 2011
  • Spiritual_ChaosSpiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,162
    I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO CHOOSE!
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • blueandwhiteblueandwhite Posts: 662
    drew42e wrote:
    Overly simple math: Let's say for 23 shows they have 500 pairs for GA and 800 pairs for reserved (2600 tix/16-20k a show somewhere around 12-15%) that's roughly 30,000 pairs available in total. If there are 200k active 10club members, how many will put in for tickets given many are not in US or close to cities with a show, or not able to go? 50k? 60k? so I think you have roughly a 50-60% chance to "win" tickets, although it is clearly skewed by city, a little less for bigger cities and more for smaller ones. If you think a little more pairs per show its higher, or more entries in total its lower but its probably in that neighborhood.

    It's not just the number of tickets available; it's the demand between each of the shows. I can say with reasonable certainty that more fans will be going for Philly, Brooklyn, and LA than for some of the smaller cities on the tour. You probably have excellent odds of nabbing a pair of tickets in Hartford if it's your first choice whereas you could end up with nothing in LA or Philly, even if you use your top choices there. Fans looking for tickets in larger markets are going to have a tougher time securing tickets. A lot of people are going to end up empty-handed.
  • helplessdancerhelplessdancer Posts: 5,281
    I've pondered this all day. It's really quite simple what to do.

    1) Put your #1 priority on your local show or if there is no local show for you on the closest and hopefully smaller market towns

    2) Never select GA and Reserved for the same show unless you only want to attend one show because your next show becomes priority three. No one knows the math, especially how many 10 clubbers go for a show, but I sense priority three could be a long shot luck of the draw deal

    3) Don't select a single show you don't want or can't afford, or for whatever reason are very unlikely to attend. You just might win and lose $160 while you lower the odds for someone else

    4) Rely on public sale if you lose, don't fuss over it, and just be happy if you win one through 10C

    ugh. this is what i was going to do for pittsburgh and buffalo
    holy confusion
  • I've pondered this all day. It's really quite simple what to do.

    1) Put your #1 priority on your local show or if there is no local show for you on the closest and hopefully smaller market towns

    2) Never select GA and Reserved for the same show unless you only want to attend one show because your next show becomes priority three. No one knows the math, especially how many 10 clubbers go for a show, but I sense priority three could be a long shot luck of the draw deal

    3) Don't select a single show you don't want or can't afford, or for whatever reason are very unlikely to attend. You just might win and lose $160 while you lower the odds for someone else

    4) Rely on public sale if you lose, don't fuss over it, and just be happy if you win one through 10C

    ugh. this is what i was going to do for pittsburgh and buffalo
    holy confusion

    I personally think it wastes an important priority level to pick both sections for the same show. I plan to only pick reserved seating but I am a 41 year old man who no longer wants to stand there for 6 hours. I grew up in Seattle and have done my share of mosh pits at PJ shows. Plus, for me in particular, I have a low member number 112XXX so I'm bound to get good seats.

    Another tidbit I read in another post is 10C have said in an email that side stage 100 level seats are considered priority over first row on the floor behind the pit. For me, particularly with a low number, that means I'll likely have a better seat than most of the people getting pushed around in the pit and won't be halfway back on the floor.
    |9.5.93Gorge|2.6.95Moore|5.7.98AROSpace|7.21.98Seattle|7.22.98Seattle|10.21.00PHX|11.5.00Seattle
    |11.6.00Seattle|6.6.03Vegas|6.7.03PHX|5.25.06Boston|7.22.06Gorge|7.23.06Gorge|9.21.09Seattle|9.22.09Seattle |10.6.09LA|11.19.13PHX|11.29.13Portland|12.6.13Seattle |10.22.14Denver| 8.8.18 Seattle | 8.10.18 Seattle

    EV Solo |7.15.11 Benaroya|7.16.11 Benaroya|4.13.12PHX|10.30.14Redmond|
    TOTD 11.11.16 San Fran
  • nevmilesnevmiles Ottawa, ON Posts: 1,363
    The only way a #2 pick would work in that scenario is if Less than 2300 people were to enter for those seats as their #1. Only then will the remaining seats go on lottery for people who put it as their #2.

    -jake

    Yes, as I understand it, the only way a #2 priority pick will come into play is if the number of people who have a particular show/seating option as their #1 is LESS than the total allotted seats for that particular show/seating option. Which I believe will be non-existent in all markets.

    I think in all markets/seating options, the request will be higher than the number of allotted spots. So in theory, ALL #2 priority picks will not come into play.

    That's my take on it, but I could be totally wrong....
    Barrie 08/22/98
    Montreal 10/04/00
    Toronto 10/05/00
    Toronto 06/28/03
    Kitchener 09/11/05
    Ottawa 09/16/05
    Toronto 08/21/09
    Toronto 09/11/11
    Ottawa 09/14/11
    Buffalo 10/12/13
    Ottawa 05/08/16
    Chicago 08/20/18
    Ottawa 09/03/22
    Nashville 09/16/22
  • Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,397
    But somebody will win those GA tickets they chose as their first priority. If everybody is so scared to lose and chooses Res because of that, it might be easier to win GA :P :)

    Yeah, I don't really believe that either :lol:
  • mcrieckenmcriecken Indiana Posts: 265
    nevmiles wrote:
    The only way a #2 pick would work in that scenario is if Less than 2300 people were to enter for those seats as their #1. Only then will the remaining seats go on lottery for people who put it as their #2.

    -jake

    Yes, as I understand it, the only way a #2 priority pick will come into play is if the number of people who have a particular show/seating option as their #1 is LESS than the total allotted seats for that particular show/seating option. Which I believe will be non-existent in all markets.

    I think in all markets/seating options, the request will be higher than the number of allotted spots. So in theory, ALL #2 priority picks will not come into play.

    That's my take on it, but I could be totally wrong....

    I think a lot of people are focused on the number of available tickets too much. In the end it's going to matter where people put their choices. If everyone puts their #1s in Philly, Brooklyn, etc., then that's going to open up a lot of possibilities in other markets for #2 or even #3 choices to win, regardless of how many tickets are available at each venue. Obviously it's not likely that all #1s will go to a few select shows, but I would wager it will be skewed that way. Which does open up the potential for lower choices to win in other markets.
    St. Louis, USA 10-05-2004 | Chicago, USA 08-23-2009 | Indianapolis, USA 05-07-2010 | Hartford, USA 10-25-2013 | Lexington, USA 04-26-2016 | Chicago, USA 08-20-2016 | Chicago, USA 08-22-2016 | Chicago, USA 08-18-2018 | Chicago, USA 08-20-2018
  • nevmilesnevmiles Ottawa, ON Posts: 1,363
    Well I'm in for Buffalo . . . GA as #1 and Seating as #2. I can't strategize too much beyond that because I can't and won't be going to any other shows. I'm just going to let fate decide!

    If I get shut out I won't be going at all because I won't be around to buy tickets on the 27th during the public sale as I'll be traveling . . . so I can't really stress about it too much!
    Barrie 08/22/98
    Montreal 10/04/00
    Toronto 10/05/00
    Toronto 06/28/03
    Kitchener 09/11/05
    Ottawa 09/16/05
    Toronto 08/21/09
    Toronto 09/11/11
    Ottawa 09/14/11
    Buffalo 10/12/13
    Ottawa 05/08/16
    Chicago 08/20/18
    Ottawa 09/03/22
    Nashville 09/16/22
  • nevmilesnevmiles Ottawa, ON Posts: 1,363
    mcriecken wrote:
    nevmiles wrote:

    Yes, as I understand it, the only way a #2 priority pick will come into play is if the number of people who have a particular show/seating option as their #1 is LESS than the total allotted seats for that particular show/seating option. Which I believe will be non-existent in all markets.

    I think in all markets/seating options, the request will be higher than the number of allotted spots. So in theory, ALL #2 priority picks will not come into play.

    That's my take on it, but I could be totally wrong....

    I think a lot of people are focused on the number of available tickets too much. In the end it's going to matter where people put their choices. If everyone puts their #1s in Philly, Brooklyn, etc., then that's going to open up a lot of possibilities in other markets for #2 or even #3 choices to win, regardless of how many tickets are available at each venue. Obviously it's not likely that all #1s will go to a few select shows, but I would wager it will be skewed that way. Which does open up the potential for lower choices to win in other markets.

    True, but what I'm saying is that I think in ALL markets, there will be enough #1 priorities for all seating options, meaning the #2's will be useless . . . but I could be wrong. it doesn't matter WHERE the #1 choices are, there will be enough so that all #1 choices are used.... if you know what I mean.

    Let's say Hartford has 500 GA tickets . . it doesn't matter if only 501 people put it as their number 1 or if 5,001 people do . . ALL the GA tickets will still go to people who put it as #1. Sure, more people might put GA in Philly as their number 1 than GA in Hartford, but in both markets, all tickets will be given to people with them as a #1 . . . wow, my head just exploded.

    ... Either that, or I am totally off. I dunno.
    Barrie 08/22/98
    Montreal 10/04/00
    Toronto 10/05/00
    Toronto 06/28/03
    Kitchener 09/11/05
    Ottawa 09/16/05
    Toronto 08/21/09
    Toronto 09/11/11
    Ottawa 09/14/11
    Buffalo 10/12/13
    Ottawa 05/08/16
    Chicago 08/20/18
    Ottawa 09/03/22
    Nashville 09/16/22
  • jamburgerjamburger Posts: 1,775
    I've pondered this all day. It's really quite simple what to do.

    1) Put your #1 priority on your local show or if there is no local show for you on the closest and hopefully smaller market towns

    2) Never select GA and Reserved for the same show unless you only want to attend one show because your next show becomes priority three. No one knows the math, especially how many 10 clubbers go for a show, but I sense priority three could be a long shot luck of the draw deal

    3) Don't select a single show you don't want or can't afford, or for whatever reason are very unlikely to attend. You just might win and lose $160 while you lower the odds for someone else

    4) Rely on public sale if you lose, don't fuss over it, and just be happy if you win one through 10C

    Please! No one wants to read your common sense approach. :lol:
  • bonowallbonowall Posts: 116
    This is a great (and painful) thread - too much thinking.

    A couple of random questions:

    - when the lottery window opened, I opted for the 5 shows I wanted to attend, 4 GA and 1 Reserved. Then a friend of mine wen in later that afternoon and went to enter for one of those shows as well - PHX. She asked me if i was given the option between GA / Reserved to which I told her...yes. She said that she was only given the Reserved option in entering the lottery. Has anyone who has queued up on that first day (or since) cancelled their "plan" and re-entered their information to find certain options NOT AVAILABLE?
    - Based on the comments here, I am considering cancelling my existing strategy and tweaking the options a bit but, because of the experience of my friend in trying for GA PHX (not being there) and this antiquated (F5) mentality that, for some reason, the timing of your entries has some impact on the drawing (which i know it doens't..hence lottery), i am reluctant to try. Has anyone done it or have you all "locked in".

    Thanks and good luck to you all!
    HAWAII BABY!!!!!!

    MySpace:
    www.myspace.com/greendisease06

    Web Site:
    www.wallsstreetjournal.net

    Proud Volunteer of:
    www.wishlistfoundation.org
  • rawpixelsrawpixels Posts: 912
    I preferred the old system, in which the site would crash and rip our faces off. Frustrating, but always managed to get tickets. :)
    One man stands alone awaiting
    for her to come home
    eyes upon the horizon
    in the dark before the
    darkness leaves the dawn
  • Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,397
    bonowall wrote:
    This is a great (and painful) thread - too much thinking.

    A couple of random questions:

    - when the lottery window opened, I opted for the 5 shows I wanted to attend, 4 GA and 1 Reserved. Then a friend of mine wen in later that afternoon and went to enter for one of those shows as well - PHX. She asked me if i was given the option between GA / Reserved to which I told her...yes. She said that she was only given the Reserved option in entering the lottery. Has anyone who has queued up on that first day (or since) cancelled their "plan" and re-entered their information to find certain options NOT AVAILABLE?
    - Based on the comments here, I am considering cancelling my existing strategy and tweaking the options a bit but, because of the experience of my friend in trying for GA PHX (not being there) and this antiquated (F5) mentality that, for some reason, the timing of your entries has some impact on the drawing (which i know it doens't..hence lottery), i am reluctant to try. Has anyone done it or have you all "locked in".

    Thanks and good luck to you all!

    Wow, really? Well, that settles it, I won't change my stuff again. My four changes were all done on the first day, and all the options were available. It seems weird that you cannot chose GA anymore when the drawing hasn't taken place yet :think:
  • bonowallbonowall Posts: 116
    I don't want to suggest that this is all fact - I am interested to see if anyone has tried it and found out that both options for all shows are still intact. If it ISN'T then i can see a bunch of us getting pissed...specifically because, as you said, nothing should be decided at this point.

    I am hoping someone can confirm that what my friend saw was simply an error or glitch.

    Cheers.
    HAWAII BABY!!!!!!

    MySpace:
    www.myspace.com/greendisease06

    Web Site:
    www.wallsstreetjournal.net

    Proud Volunteer of:
    www.wishlistfoundation.org
  • Leezestarr313Leezestarr313 Temple of the cat Posts: 14,397
    bonowall wrote:
    I don't want to suggest that this is all fact - I am interested to see if anyone has tried it and found out that both options for all shows are still intact. If it ISN'T then i can see a bunch of us getting pissed...specifically because, as you said, nothing should be decided at this point.

    I am hoping someone can confirm that what my friend saw was simply an error or glitch.

    Cheers.

    Would be good to know :thumbup: Good luck you'll get what you're after!
  • helplessdancerhelplessdancer Posts: 5,281
    bonowall wrote:
    I don't want to suggest that this is all fact - I am interested to see if anyone has tried it and found out that both options for all shows are still intact. If it ISN'T then i can see a bunch of us getting pissed...specifically because, as you said, nothing should be decided at this point.

    I am hoping someone can confirm that what my friend saw was simply an error or glitch.

    Cheers.

    i will be putting in 4 requests for 2 shows-not hot markets
    GA 1st and 2nd choice
    RESERVED 3rd and 4th choice

    gosh i hope this is the best way to do it...

    i will post only if i have a problem
    i'm gonna do this tomorrow(friday)
  • This thread is amazing and stressful. The only thing I can add that I haven't seen mentioned is SMALL MARKETS on WEEKDAYS would probably be your best shot. I'm traveling to these shows and the first thing I looked at was which shows fall on the weekend so I can avoid using vacation days.

    For example, I'd like to request Dallas and LA, but those are going to be insanely hard to get and they fall on the weekend increasing the chances of people coming in for the show. If you can, find a small show during the week, like San Diego and I think your chances improve greatly.

    Still debating on which show I'll request, but I have GA/PIT for Wrigley so you'll hear no complaints from me.

    Good Luck to everyone trying...
  • longroad84longroad84 Posts: 21
    Nah don't go for San Diego ;)
  • VartVart Posts: 291
    The wife and I are planning to go to 4 shows - Hartford, Baltimore, Charlottesville and Charlotte.

    We have already placed our lottery picks, but now that I've thought about it I'm not sure we used the right strategy. The two show we most want 10C tickets for are Hartford and Baltimore. This is how we ranked our picks:

    Me
    1. Hartford
    2. Baltimore
    3. Charlottesville
    4. Charlotte

    Her
    1. Baltimore
    2. Hartford
    3. Charlottesville
    4. Charlotte

    Does this give us the best chance to get tickets to Hartford and Baltimore? Should we just assume that neither of these show will have enough 10C tickets to make it to the 2 choice people and just pick the one we really want 10C tickets for and each rank that as number 1? I figure our 3 and 4 choice don't really matter since chances are slim there will be enough 10C tickets to get to those.

    All of these are for reserved seats. We don't want GA.
    PJ: 8/27/00 4/29/03 9/15/05 5/12/06 6/28/08 6/30/08 8/21/09 5/15/10 5/21/10 9/11/11 9/12/11 9/14/11 10/25/13 10/27/13 10/29/13 10/30/13 8/5/16 8/7/16 9/2/18 9/4/18
    EV: 8/09/08 8/10/08 6/08/09 6/09/09 6/18/11
  • nupur1586nupur1586 Ewing, NJ Posts: 88
    bonowall wrote:
    This is a great (and painful) thread - too much thinking.

    A couple of random questions:

    - when the lottery window opened, I opted for the 5 shows I wanted to attend, 4 GA and 1 Reserved. Then a friend of mine wen in later that afternoon and went to enter for one of those shows as well - PHX. She asked me if i was given the option between GA / Reserved to which I told her...yes. She said that she was only given the Reserved option in entering the lottery. Has anyone who has queued up on that first day (or since) cancelled their "plan" and re-entered their information to find certain options NOT AVAILABLE?
    - Based on the comments here, I am considering cancelling my existing strategy and tweaking the options a bit but, because of the experience of my friend in trying for GA PHX (not being there) and this antiquated (F5) mentality that, for some reason, the timing of your entries has some impact on the drawing (which i know it doens't..hence lottery), i am reluctant to try. Has anyone done it or have you all "locked in".

    Thanks and good luck to you all!

    I've changed the order of my entries today ... moved GA as my first priority , and I could see all options as available.. might've been a glitch i guess..
    Can I be here all alone? Clear a path to my home
  • amethgr8amethgr8 Posts: 766
    I have changed my choices twice, probably over a 2-3 day period. I did my last adjustment this morning, seeing Portland was thanksgiving weekend.

    I've see all the options. I would suggest she clear her cache, cookies, etc and try it again.

    I don't know, but I don't think changing your choices has any impact on your chances of getting tickets. the tenclub states you can go in and edit your choices.

    JUST SO GLAD THEY GIVE US A WEEKEND TO THINK THIS THRU!

    AMY
    Amy The Great #74594
    New Orleans LA 7/4/95 reschedule 9/17/95
    Chicago IL 1998, 10/9/00, 06/18/03, 05/16/06, 05/17/06
    08/23/09, 08/24/09, Lolla 08/05/07
    Champaign IL 4/23/03
    Grand Rapids MI VFC 10/03/04
    Grand Rapids MI 19May06
    Noblesville IN 05/07/10 Cleveland OH 05/09/10
    PJ 20 2011
    Baltimore MD, Charlottesville VA, Seattle WA 2013
    St. Louis MO, Milwaukee WI 2014
    Tampa FL, Chicago IL, Lexington KY 2016
    Missoula MT 2018
  • hugepjfanhugepjfan Posts: 114
    The only way that I can think of that seniority will matter in a true lottery system is if the higher your number the more ping pong balls (so to speak) you will have in the population therefore increasing your chances. Much like professional sports drafts. How else could it be done fairly?
    HugePJFan
    "...You try it, I give you the room, you try..."
  • tubes10stubes10s Posts: 537
    I've read through this thread, and I've read through the ticket lottery explanations that I could find on the PJ website.

    I see ZERO reason to believe that the only way that a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc priority choice can only be chosen if the requested number of 1st priority requests is less than the tickets available. If this were the case, then this wouldn't be a lottery at all.
    8-31-98 - Raleigh
    8-3-00 - Virginia Beach
    4-16-03 - Charlotte
    5-27-06 - Camden 1
    5-28-06 - Camden 2
    5-30-06 - DC
    6-17-08 - Virginia Beach
    6-22-08 - DC
    5-13-10 - Bristow
    10-27-13 - Baltimore
    10-29-13 - Charlottesville
    4-18-16 - Hampton
  • For the past two years I've saved up money and time off to give everything to my 10C ticket order for this very tour and to finally follow an entire leg....only to find out that this lottery system is fucking my plans. I have a feeling my 22nd choice won't be fulfilled....

    i have a feeling of being greedy, but then i remember that i deserve every bit of it. Pearl Jam...please take my $1300.
    -All that's sacred comes from youth.
  • rollingsrollings unknown Posts: 7,125
    longroad84 wrote:
    Just a random thought with nothing to support it but WHAT IF.....

    ...the 10c has modeled the ticketing system after the NBA lottery. They just don't want to try to explain it to everyone because its kind of complicated This would mean that people who entered 1st choice would have highest probability followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect. The important distinction is that those are only probabilities. They wouldn't just go down the line of all the people who entered 1st and 2nd and so on. In this scenario it is possible for a 10th choice to win over a 1st choice although unlikely. I'm not a computer programmer but I think this would be pretty easy to do.

    Not sure if that would even affect anyone's outlook on the system but I think it would be kinda cool. Whatever

    The FAQ section says that "second choice" will only have a chance to win if there are tickets left after the "1st choicers" round is through.
Sign In or Register to comment.