***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Thread***

The Fixer

I love the texas package, martin perez has superstar potential. I'd seriously consider that trade.

From Kevin Goldstein of BP

"Let's trade Cole Hamels."

As Buster Olney wrote on Monday, it's certainly not a scenario the Philadelphia Phillies' front office wants to face, but it could be one that's at least discussed this winter.



Hamels turns 28 next month and will be a free agent after the 2012 season, and executives throughout baseball are skeptical about the Phillies' ability to keep the ace-level left-hander, considering the rest of their long-term salary commitments. Hamels is most definitely an ace. He's coming off his best season statistically and is in his prime. The Phillies should keep him, since aces don't exactly grow on trees, despite what it might seem like considering their rotation. Aces are also expensive, and if the Phillies decide to trade Hamels prior to the 2012 season, they will certainly find their phones burning up with prospective suitors.

If the Phillies put Hamels on the market, here's what they should be looking for:

1. A replacement in the rotation: Trading Hamels right now is not the best timing, as Roy Oswalt is leaving via free agency, which gives the Phillies two aces in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and then some mortality in Vance Worley and Joe Blanton, with Kyle Kendrick the most likely candidate from within to fill the No. 5 slot. Ignore Kendrick's 2011 ERA (3.22), since pitchers who don't miss bats (4.6 K/9) cannot sustain such numbers. And while teams are highly reticent to trade pitching prospects, they become willing when a pitcher like Cole Hamels is on the table.

2. Bullpen help: Jon Papelbon is simply a Ryan Madson replacement/upgrade, Jose Contreras is old as Methuselah, and most inside the game expect a regression from Antonio Bastardo. Relievers are the most unpredictable commodity in the game, and depth there is always a good thing.

3. Middle infield insurance: Jimmy Rollins is a free agent and Chase Utley is coming off the two worst seasons since his 2004 rookie campaign while missing a combined 106 games during that time. Enough said.

4. Athletes with upside Because when it comes to your players, that's what the Phillies always look for. That's their draft mantra, and likely will be their mantra for trades as well.

So while advising against the idea of it, let's play along and trade Cole Hamels to some likely interested parties, with the help of a big league executive who quipped, "Hey, I love trading other people's players!"

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New York Yankees: Manny Banuelos, LHP; Hector Noesi, RHP; Austin Romine, C; Mason Williams, OF.

Banuelos is one of the best left-handed prospects in the game and, like Hamels, his best pitch is a changeup, but Banuelos has plenty of other offerings. He should be ready at some point in the 2012 season, while Noesi can start or relieve right now. Williams is exactly the kind of young, athletic outfielder the Phillies covet, and Romine could develop into a replacement for Carlos Ruiz. "The Phillies need a long-term catcher, and their top catching prospect, Sebastian Valle, is not a sure thing," said the executive.

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Boston Red Sox: Will Middlebrooks, 3B; Jed Lowrie, INF; Brandon Jacobs, OF; Felix Doubront, LHP

While Placido Polanco was a Gold Glove winner and somehow an All-Star, he's still well below average offensively for the position, making Middlebrooks a perfect fit as a hot-corner player with above-average offensive and defensive potential who should be ready by 2013 at the latest. Lowrie is a perfect fit for infield depth, while Jacobs is toolsy and coming off a big year in low Class A. The biggest problem for the Red Sox is that they just don't have the arms to compete with other teams. "Doubront is out of options, and the Phillies need left-handed depth," said the exec.

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Chicago Cubs: Brett Jackson, OF; Andrew Cashner, RHP; Junior Lake, INF

"People forget that Victorino is a free agent after next year, so a young center fielder could make a lot of sense here," said the executive. Jackson's strikeout issues will keep him from hitting for a high average, but his power and patience will more than make up for it. Cashner is healthy and throwing bullets, so he could give the Phillies a dominant late-inning combination when paired with Papelbon. Lake has tools and size, and some chance at becoming the answer at third base in a couple of years.

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Texas Rangers: Martin Perez, LHP; Mike Olt, 3B; Jorge Alfaro, C; Roman Mendez, RHP

Perez has begun to stagnate a bit in the Rangers' system due to inconsistency issues, but he remains a left-handed starting prospect with upside who could pitch in the big leagues this year. Olt is a perfect trade chip as a plus defender at third base who put on a show with the bat in the Arizona Fall League, but he is interminably blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre. Alfaro and Mendez are the upside plays, with Alfaro most noted for his power and arm, while Mendez brings upper-90s heat.

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Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner, RHP; Casey Crosby, LHP; Danry Vasquez, OF; Gustavo Nunez, SS

While Hamels to the Tigers makes sense, it's a difficult deal to make due to an extremely shallow system. "They just can't get the deal done without including Turner," said the executive, referring to the team's top prospect by a wide margin, who also is close to being ready for a major league rotation. Crosby has a terrifying injury history, but still has two well-above average pitches in his fastball and curveball and could be a weapon out of the bullpen. Vasquez was a big budget signing out of Venezuela in 2010 who offers plenty to dream about, while Nunez is an extra infielder.

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Colorado Rockies: Drew Pomeranz, LHP; Chad Bettis, RHP; Charlie Blackmon, OF

Pomeranz was the big prize from Cleveland in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, and while he's an excellent prospect, Colorado should be happy to flip him in a deal for Hamels. A second-round pick in 2010, Bettis had a breakout performance in the high Class A California League, sitting at 92-96 mph and leading the league in strikeouts. "This is another chance for them to pick up a center fielder, but it's too bad that Colorado is in love with [Dexter] Fowler again," added the executive. That leaves Blackmon, who is solid across the board, but lacks star potential.

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Los Angeles Dodgers: Dee Gordon, SS; Allen Webster, RHP; James Baldwin, OF

There are plenty of whispers that the Dodgers could be players this offseason, with a focus on increasing team value now that the McCourt nightmare is in the rearview mirror. The problem is, they just don't have the prospects to play ball with the big boys. "Their system is all pitching, and there just isn't someone who can headline the deal," explained the executive. Thus the inclusion of Gordon, who becomes an immediate Rollins replacement and provides the Phillies with some financial flexibility. Webster is a middle-rotation prospect with a 2013 timetable, while Baldwin is the perfect Phillie as a 20-year-old with some of the best tools around, but he's still learning how to place the baseball.

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Washington Nationals: Brad Peacock, RHP; Derek Norris, C; Michael Taylor, OF; Stephen Lombardozzi, INF

"I'm surprised you don't have the Nationals on your list," said the executive as we ran through scenarios. The team is certainly expected to be busy in the free-agent market, so it makes sense that they'd be interested in Hamels. While Peacock lacks the upside of Hamels, he could walk right into the Philadelphia rotation and produce. Norris is a catcher who has tons of power and draws truckloads of walks, so even when he hits .210, he's actually good, as he was in 2011 at Double-A Harrisburg (.210 AVG/.367 OBP/.446 SLG). Taylor is the youthful, athletic outfielder, and Lombardozzi is the perfect fit as an advanced prospect who can play both up-the-middle positions.

The Fixer

So Schneider is back, Thome is signed, Valdez and francisco look like they'll get arbitration. If mayberry is taking over for the waste of space at first, that leaves openings at SS, LF, and one bench spot. Martinez could be back which would give them the same weak bench they had last year (replacing gload with thome is a wash IMO).

Winter meetings coming up. Things should get interesting

Jearlpam0925

The Fixer wrote:

So Schneider is back, Thome is signed, Valdez and francisco look like they'll get arbitration. If mayberry is taking over for the waste of space at first, that leaves openings at SS, LF, and one bench spot. Martinez could be back which would give them the same weak bench they had last year (replacing gload with thome is a wash IMO).

Winter meetings coming up. Things should get interesting

Martinez I think gets sent down to the minors. Since they kept him on the bench all season last year they can now option him down. Which is what they should do. Looks like the concern is to make the bench better, and to keep the same people would be idiotic. I know you don't like him that much, but I think Cuddyer would be a great fit here.

The Fixer

Jearlpam0925 wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

So Schneider is back, Thome is signed, Valdez and francisco look like they'll get arbitration. If mayberry is taking over for the waste of space at first, that leaves openings at SS, LF, and one bench spot. Martinez could be back which would give them the same weak bench they had last year (replacing gload with thome is a wash IMO).

Winter meetings coming up. Things should get interesting

Martinez I think gets sent down to the minors. Since they kept him on the bench all season last year they can now option him down. Which is what they should do. Looks like the concern is to make the bench better, and to keep the same people would be idiotic. I know you don't like him that much, but I think Cuddyer would be a great fit here.

Yeah, I don't want cuddyer. He's 33 and he wants 3+ years. That just compounds their problem of overpaying for old, past their prime players.

I'd love to see them sign a guy like Matt Murton, who could play the corner OF spots and first base. That dude can hit

Cliffy6745

That phillies scoreboard is bright a fuck. Was just flying in from Boston and saw that shit glowing a good 10-15 minutes before we landed and couldn't figure out what it was until we got close. Yankees one has to be seen from the moon.

Cliffy6745

That's a big fucking package from the Yankees.

Wobbie

we got rid of sanchez, so I don't understand why you guys are so freaked over the possibility of hamels leaving. they're about the same pitcher. :shifty:

The Fixer

imalive wrote:

we got rid of sanchez, so I don't understand why you guys are so freaked over the possibility of hamels leaving. they're about the same pitcher. :shifty:

I hope this post is a joke

Wobbie

The Fixer wrote:

imalive wrote:

we got rid of sanchez, so I don't understand why you guys are so freaked over the possibility of hamels leaving. they're about the same pitcher. :shifty:

I hope this post is a joke

well..............hamels is better looking........in a gay sort of way

seriously, sanchez could be hamels.....if he ever pulls his head out of his ass.

The Fixer

imalive wrote:

The Fixer wrote:

imalive wrote:

we got rid of sanchez, so I don't understand why you guys are so freaked over the possibility of hamels leaving. they're about the same pitcher. :shifty:

I hope this post is a joke

well..............hamels is better looking........in a gay sort of way

seriously, sanchez could be hamels.....if he ever pulls his head out of his ass.

I call sanchez the left handed AJ Burnett.

The Fixer

This is for the pro-howard crowd. So annoying.

Imagine, for a moment, that Ryan Howard never signed his five-year, $125 million extension. He played out his previous three-year, $54 million deal, and reached free agency after the 2011 season. Joining Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder on the market, Howard is the third most desirable free agent first baseman.

The Phillies, who have already assembled one of the best rotations in the league and signed an upper echelon closer to a questionable deal, still have enough money in the budget to fill the hole vacated by Howard and re-sign Jimmy Rollins. With three perceived elite first baseman available, and a finite number of suitors given the price tags of that trio, the interested parties sit back and wait for asking prices to drop.

Maybe someone jumps the gun and signs Fielder to a humongous deal, but the likeliest scenario is that all three sign for less than they originally asked. It’s already started with Pujols and Fielder. Nobody has truly emerged as the clear suitor for either player. Is Pujols really going to play for the Marlins? Who the hell knows where Fielder will sign?

Both players want to go to winning teams with pockets deep enough to sign them… which is incredibly frustrating because the Phillies are one of those teams.

At least they would have been without Howard’s extension. The unrealized opportunity cost of signing Howard to that deal, which almost served as a post-hoc justification for the deal in some respects — primarily in that nobody could realize the ramifications until now — is finally being realized. Due to that extension, the Phillies cannot sign one of two elite players they definitely would have had a tremendous shot at signing.

In this case, Ruben Amaro’s need to get something done way ahead of time has come back to hurt the Phillies. No, maybe the deal does not prevent the Phillies from re-signing Rollins. It certainly didn’t prevent the team from bringing Papelbon into the fold. But the very real opportunity cost of his contract is the ability to sign Pujols or Fielder. Had the Phillies waited, there was very little risk. Worst case scenario, they vastly overpay someone. Best case scenario, they get a better player on a relatively lesser deal.

Waiting also hurts fans. Because of Amaro’s modus operandi in pouncing on free agents early in the offseason, when moves aren’t made it can drive us crazy. That craziness increases when moves that should take precedent are prioritized after less important moves. Case in point: Jimmy Rollins is still a free agent, Cole Hamels is still yet to be extended, and yet fans have spent the last few days discussing Brian Schneider.

Because of the front office’s approach, it has become difficult to wait. Amaro likes to accomplish his goals early, and it’s impossible not to read too much into moves or non-moves. Does the lack of activity on the Rollins front mean the Phils don’t like him? Does it mean they can’t afford him? Does the lack of a Hamels extension mean, as Buster Olney suggested, the team might seek to trade him with his value at an all-time high?

None of this might end up true. The Phillies may sign Rollins next week and extend Hamels the week after. But when we sit around and wait, with no rumor or story, especially in this day and age of instant access, and especially with a front office notorious for acting early and often, waiting is an agonizing process.

Waiting helps and hurts in different forms for fans and the team. Right now, it feels like nothing but hurt for the Phillies. The lack of waiting precluded the team from having a shot at a legitimate differencemaker at first base, and resulted in overpaying a closer that wanted to be here and could have eventually signed for less money. The lack of waiting may help Rollins return on a lesser deal, but it could also push him right into the arms of another team.

There are times to wait, and times to act, and the Phillies don’t seem to have that figured out just yet. The talent is there in both the roster and front office, but if the front office continues to transpose its approach to waiting, the big and unnecessary deals will eventually catch up. Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that point.

Cliffy6745

And if they waited, what would he sign for now with a blown achilles and a 2 year decline?

Cliffy6745

Petes sake is the best bar in America, hands down. I love this fucking place

The Fixer

The pj20 beer sucks

RW81233

as much as Ryan Howard's contract?

Cliffy6745

Awww shit. Going to see the allmans next Friday at the tower and just got an email that they are playing at filmore east in it's entirety

Jearlpam0925

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Petes sake is the best bar in America, hands down. I love this fucking place

I knew my ears were burning.

Wobbie

Cliffy6745 wrote:

Awww shit. Going to see the allmans next Friday at the tower and just got an email that they are playing at filmore east in it's entirety

"Awww shit"? :wtf:

I hope you don't really mean awww shit.

The Fixer

RW81233 wrote:

as much as Ryan Howard's contract?

no way. let's not get carried away

towson can lock up the CAA and a first round bye today.

RW81233

i know my student had a huge pick inside the 20 just a bit ago, but the tigers are making this way more interesting than it needs to be.