it's amazing how many non Americans follow our election when the reverse, well, I can garauntee the VAST majority of Americans don't watch other elections.
Hahaha ya I know. Sad isn't it??? I guess what happens here in Canada has very little impact on the US whereas the exact opposite is true for us and what happens in the US....which would explain why we Canadians are watching so closely. There is at least one Canadian station who is running live election night coverage tomorrow night. (maybe even more than one).
"Rock and roll is something that can't be quantified, sometimes it's not even something you hear, but FEEL!" - Bob Lefsetz
it's amazing how many non Americans follow our election when the reverse, well, I can garauntee the VAST majority of Americans don't watch other elections.
the vast majority of americans think Gordon Brown is a song by The Stranglers.
oh scary... 40000 morbidly obese christians wearing fanny packs invading europe is probably the least scariest thing since I watched an edited version of The Care Bears movie in an extremely brightly lit cinema.
it's amazing how many non Americans follow our election when the reverse, well, I can garauntee the VAST majority of Americans don't watch other elections.
you know, it's your presidents going to invade other countries, usually...
Whoever America votes for, the outcome will be the same because they won't dictate policy - the Shadow People will. Obama says he stands for 'change' in truth, they stand for the status quo because that's the position of those who control them. All the rest is fakery. Barack Obama is just another fake, another 'rock star', who joined the club.
Elections are only organised to give the illusion to the masses they have free choice: the 2 opposed party race is a sham, they both work for the same masters, and use the dialectic process to advance the program the rulers want to impose.
The Town went Democrat for the first time since a long time ago.
Peace
Oh my Gosh! I wanted to stay up yesterday to see how the outcome of those 19 or 20 votes went. I heard the mayor on Larry king last night and he mentioned that that town hasn't gone Democrat since the 60's I think.
I hope they are many more nice surprises throughout the day as the polls start to close in the east coast later tonight.
There is no school today so I thought I would sleep one more hour though I've been up since 6:30pm I can't stop thinking about the outcome of this election.
"Without the album covers, where do you clean your pot?" - EV
0
g under p
Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,200
Well it's time to go do what must be done. Time to go and VOTE!
Peace
*We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti
*MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
.....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti
*The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)
it's amazing how many non Americans follow our election when the reverse, well, I can garauntee the VAST majority of Americans don't watch other elections.
Interesting piece of the US v Rest of the World view of the election
At 6:40 AM, I was the 38th voter in my election district. I'd guess most of the people were for Obama, though I did see a woman wearing a t-shirt that read the following: "The difference between Obama and Osama is just a little BS".
Reading 2004
Albany 2006 Camden 2006 E. Rutherford 2, 2006 Inglewood 2006,
Chicago 2007
Camden 2008 MSG 2008 MSG 2008 Hartford 2008.
Seattle 2009 Seattle 2009 Philadelphia 2009,Philadelphia 2009 Philadelphia 2009
Hartford 2010 MSG 2010 MSG 2010
Toronto 2011,Toronto 2011
Wrigley Field 2013 Brooklyn 2013 Brooklyn 2013 Philadelphia 2, 2013
Philadelphia 1, 2016 Philadelphia 2 2016 New York 2016 New York 2016 Fenway 1, 2016 Fenway 2, 2018 MSG 2022 St. Paul, 1, St. Paul 2 2023 MSG 2024, MSG 2024 Philadelphia 2024
"I play good, hard-nosed basketball.
Things happen in the game. Nothing you
can do. I don't go and say,
"I'm gonna beat this guy up."
just got back from voting it took me all of 60 seconds ,it's my 1st time voting and it felt great to do i voted democrat straight across fuck the republicans they have played on the playground long enough ...
jesus greets me looks just like me ....
0
unsung
I stopped by on March 7 2024. First time in many years, had to update payment info. Hope all is well. Politicians suck. Bye. Posts: 9,487
I just got back from voting for Chuck Baldwin for President. Funny thing is the machine wasn't working so they put the ballots in a box to count later when the guy got there to fix the machine. I'm in a small precinct.
Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample -- essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place -- in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore's share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By "late" voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics -- will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? -- the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
"You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
How dare you denigrate the great Pat Sumerall!!!!!
don't get me wrong, I LOVE Pat Sumerall ... and some of the ealry Madden games used his voice (it was AWESOME) ... but, he certainly slowed up at the end ...
after the game, stay on CBS for Murder .................................................She Wrote
"You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
CNN just did a break down by county of Indiana ... Obama is running WAY better than Kerry ... very intersting, that looks like it's going to be a tight one.
"You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Shit, I left the room for 2 minutes and Obama took 81 more votes.
"I remember one night at Muzdalifa with nothing but the sky overhead, I lay awake amid sleeping Muslim brothers and I learned that pilgrims from every land — every colour, and class, and rank; high officials and the beggar alike — all snored in the same language"
Comments
Hahaha ya I know. Sad isn't it??? I guess what happens here in Canada has very little impact on the US whereas the exact opposite is true for us and what happens in the US....which would explain why we Canadians are watching so closely. There is at least one Canadian station who is running live election night coverage tomorrow night. (maybe even more than one).
the vast majority of americans think Gordon Brown is a song by The Stranglers.
www.amnesty.org.uk
Elections are only organised to give the illusion to the masses they have free choice: the 2 opposed party race is a sham, they both work for the same masters, and use the dialectic process to advance the program the rulers want to impose.
By David Icke
Oh my Gosh! I wanted to stay up yesterday to see how the outcome of those 19 or 20 votes went. I heard the mayor on Larry king last night and he mentioned that that town hasn't gone Democrat since the 60's I think.
I hope they are many more nice surprises throughout the day as the polls start to close in the east coast later tonight.
There is no school today so I thought I would sleep one more hour though I've been up since 6:30pm
Peace
*MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
.....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti
*The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite INSANE*....Nikola Tesla(a man who shaped our world of electricity with his futuristic inventions)
Interesting piece of the US v Rest of the World view of the election
http://www.newsweek.com/id/166910
Albany 2006 Camden 2006 E. Rutherford 2, 2006 Inglewood 2006,
Chicago 2007
Camden 2008 MSG 2008 MSG 2008 Hartford 2008.
Seattle 2009 Seattle 2009 Philadelphia 2009,Philadelphia 2009 Philadelphia 2009
Hartford 2010 MSG 2010 MSG 2010
Toronto 2011,Toronto 2011
Wrigley Field 2013 Brooklyn 2013 Brooklyn 2013 Philadelphia 2, 2013
Philadelphia 1, 2016 Philadelphia 2 2016 New York 2016 New York 2016 Fenway 1, 2016
Fenway 2, 2018
MSG 2022
St. Paul, 1, St. Paul 2 2023
MSG 2024, MSG 2024
Philadelphia 2024
"I play good, hard-nosed basketball.
Things happen in the game. Nothing you
can do. I don't go and say,
"I'm gonna beat this guy up."
naděje umírá poslední
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html
Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample -- essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place -- in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore's share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By "late" voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics -- will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? -- the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
McCain - 8
Obama - 3
ok, starting to get a little hyped up
I'm on HDNET, Dan Rather hosting, and NAte Silver form fivethirtyeight.com is on doing analysis
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
I just flipped over to CNN ... Wolf is talking to a hologrprahic image of some woman reporter ...
Help me Obi-won Kanobi, you're my only hope ...
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
like we as the viewer give a shit....stop wasting money on useless graphics and put the money toward better reporting
reminds me of the last few years of Pat Sumerall doing football announcing on Fox ... just didn't have it anymore.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
:eek:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDBnr79VkSE
:eek:
How dare you denigrate the great Pat Sumerall!!!!!
nowadays hits you when you're young
don't get me wrong, I LOVE Pat Sumerall ... and some of the ealry Madden games used his voice (it was AWESOME) ... but, he certainly slowed up at the end ...
after the game, stay on CBS for Murder .................................................She Wrote
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Obama - 77
They called Pennsylvania for Obama ....
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez