Can Obama defeat McCain?

slightofjeff

If Obama gets the Dem nomination, I don't see any Rep candidate that can slug it out with him except McCain. The reason I pose this question is because of the 'experience' factor McCain can throw in there.

Obama can combat that with the "Washington Insider" card ... especially with those independents whose chief concern is the war in Iraq (and who were against it from the start).

Obama can say, "This guy was in lockstep with Bush on Iraq, and I wasn't even here to vote against it. But I would have." There's really no way to prove him wrong.

My best guess, the experience vs. Washington Insider battle will be a draw. Some people will be turned off by Obama's lack of experience, others will be turned off by McCain's, um, wealth of it.

ledvedderman

slightofjeff wrote:

Obama can combat that with the "Washington Insider" card ... especially with those independents whose chief concern is the war in Iraq (and who were against it from the start).

Obama can say, "This guy was in lockstep with Bush on Iraq, and I wasn't even here to vote against it. But I would have." There's really no way to prove him wrong.

My best guess, the experience vs. Washington Insider battle will be a draw. Some people will be turned off by Obama's lack of experience, others will be turned off by McCain's, um, wealth of it.

Exactly. I think the independents would split on these two candidates. If that is the case, Obama would have to rely heavily on (gulp)...young people turning out. That's a card that hasn't played out so well as of late for the Dems.

slightofjeff

ledvedderman wrote:

Exactly. I think the independents would split on these two candidates. If that is the case, Obama would have to rely heavily on (gulp)...young people turning out. That's a card that hasn't played out so well as of late for the Dems.

Another wild card: National security. For some reason, it's not high on most people's list of issues right now.

If, God forbid, something were to happen between now and November to thrust that issue to the forefront again ... McCain wipes the floor with Obama. That's where the "experience" factor would work in McCain's favor.

(Cue GOP conspiracy theory whack jobs .... now.)

cincybearcat

This certainly is a wild election. I can see a bunch of different people winning.

Depending on the matchup and a few other things, my vote could go to..

Obama, Romney, or McCain.

stupidcorporatewhore

cincybearcat wrote:

This certainly is a wild election. I can see a bunch of different people winning.

Depending on the matchup and a few other things, my vote could go to..

Obama, Romney, or McCain.

Cincy! where the hell have you been?

I'm assuming that you're anti Obama now that the anti christ Ted Kennedy has endorsed him. am I wrong?

sweetpotato

slightofjeff wrote:

Another wild card: National security. For some reason, it's not high on most people's list of issues right now.

If, God forbid, something were to happen between now and November to thrust that issue to the forefront again ... McCain wipes the floor with Obama. That's where the "experience" factor would work in McCain's favor.

(Cue GOP conspiracy theory whack jobs .... now.)

"It's the economy, stupid."

most people are worried about a recession, about keeping their homes and jobs and health insurance. the war/terrorism is on the radar screen, but more and more it's that little picture in the corner of the tv telling you what's on the other station while you're watching something else.

cincybearcat

stupidcorporatewhore wrote:

Cincy! where the hell have you been?

I'm assuming that you're anti Obama now that the anti christ Ted Kennedy has endorsed him. am I wrong?

Ha...I was very unhappy to hear that endorsement.

I don't agree with Obama on a lot fo things. But I believe in him as someone that wants th ebest for people and I am somewhat excited by his message for change. I'm thinking about giving him a shot.

slightofjeff

sweetpotato wrote:

"It's the economy, stupid."

most people are worried about a recession, about keeping their homes and jobs and health insurance. the war/terrorism is on the radar screen, but more and more it's that little picture in the corner of the tv telling you what's on the other station while you're watching something else.

well, yeah, now. But, again, God forbid let something blow up on American soil between now and election day and see what the top issue is ... Nobody will give a crap about the Nasdaq

Thecure

sweetpotato wrote:

"It's the economy, stupid."

most people are worried about a recession, about keeping their homes and jobs and health insurance. the war/terrorism is on the radar screen, but more and more it's that little picture in the corner of the tv telling you what's on the other station while you're watching something else.

i agree that it is the economy but i wonder who will win between Obama and McCain with that. I Think it will be McCain. he has teh spending cuts and also the tax cuts.

cornnifer

know1 wrote:

McCain would win over Obama because he'll get more of the independent vote.

Respectfully, you're cracked.

decides2dream

slightofjeff wrote:

Oh yeah, I think you're probably right.

The way I look at it:

McCain vs. Obama = Repubs at least has a chance.
Any other Repub vs. Obama = Repubs have no chance
Any Repub vs. Clinton = Dems have no chance

this looks about right to me.
that said, i TRULY hope obama can defeat mccain....or anyone left running. imo clinton has NO chance of winning, period. it doesn't matter if she were the best candidate in history, which hell no....we all know she is not....she just is un-electable as president! so i really, really hope obama gets the dem nod....and i really, really hope he wins the presidency. beyond that, i really, really hope he sets in motion positive change for this country.

slightofjeff

Thecure wrote:

i agree that it is the economy but i wonder who will win between Obama and McCain with that. I Think it will be McCain. he has teh spending cuts and also the tax cuts.

well, McCain actually voted against the first Bush tax cuts. So it would be difficult for him to run on that.

Obama can at least say, "Hey, I would have voted for them, but I was still in high school in 2000."

Get_Right

slightofjeff wrote:

Obama can at least say, "Hey, I would have voted for them, but I was still in high school in 2000."

good stuff

jlew24asu

Steve Dunne wrote:

If Obama gets the Dem nomination, I don't see any Rep candidate that can slug it out with him except McCain. The reason I pose this question is because of the 'experience' factor McCain can throw in there. Discuss if you wish...

good call dude (1/08/08). we'll see if it stays this way. it could still go romney/clinton though. but if its obama/mccain...obama with ease

Steve Dunne

jlew24asu wrote:

good call dude (1/08/08). we'll see if it stays this way. it could still go romney/clinton though. but if its obama/mccain...obama with ease

we'll see. i still don't trust any of these bastards. not one. and i don't care how many kennedys or pearl jam band members support obama, i don't think he's the second coming of christ. not that hillary is. just saying none of them are.

Steve Dunne

shoot. one month later and there's no clear cut winner except for mccain.

Get_Right

Steve Dunne wrote:

shoot. one month later and there's no clear cut winner except for mccain.

and thats big trouble for the dems
either way

black man
woman
against a moderate conservative war hero

mccain will win, unfortunately

blackredyellow

I really think that it depends on what the hot issues are this october-november.

If the war resurfaces in the media and it's going "well", McCain looks ok... If it's doing bad, then Obama wins.

Focus on national security will hurt Obama.

If immigration gets hot again, McCain is screwed...

The bad economy may help Obama as well... during bad times, people may be a little more receptive to gov't programs to help.

I dunno... I just don't see McCain getting the hard-core conservatives & evangelicals out to vote like Rove & crew have been so good at in the past. And maybe, just maybe the young vote will actually materialize this time around, but I'm not holding my breath for that.

chipboy

It looks like it could be my doom day scenario. McCain vs Obama. Old vs young. Pro-war vs anti-war. Insider vs newcomer. All should mean an easy Obama victory but I fear the one I left off will be the determining factor. White vs black. If McCain wins in a close controversial way like Bush beat Gore I can see riots. If Obama wins I can see an assasination attempt leading to the same. I know it sounds ignorant to suggest such things but the black people I work with say the same thing so I know I'm not alone in thinking it.

Steve Dunne

if hillary wins...those conservative and religious idiots will come out and vote for mccain...rest assured.

that said, i think the war and economy/oil will dominate this election. it has to. capitalizing on the mistakes of the last president's admin and pointing to the faults of mccain will have to be the strategy of the dem nom. no more of this 'change' bullshit. identify the faults, detail ways to undo the faults, and expose the faults for what they are. the #1 reason for the war lasting in iraq after bush 'declared victory' was to ensure he was re-elected. game over.