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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    tempo_n_groove said:
    bbiggs said:
    This is something to monitor. 

    I do know that banks are not quick to lend out right now and banks do not want to foreclose your home and have a house on their books.

    Can you cut and paste the article please?
    Correct.  The banks are willing to do modifications and forbearance.  They learned in 08 that sitting on the assets wasn't better.  
  • pjhawks
    pjhawks Posts: 12,912
    just got my quarterly report on my 401k.  lost 17% of value this quarter. actually thought it might be higher. only 2nd time i can ever remember losing more than a few points in one quarter. only other time was after 9/11.  luckily i am not close to retirement so not really too concerned about it but kind of wild to see such a large negative number.
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,964
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,079
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    So can someone explain why you don’t just stop production until the current supply needs to be replenished with demand.  I still can’t understand why the entire economy hasn’t been put on a hard pause of some sort.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    So can someone explain why you don’t just stop production until the current supply needs to be replenished with demand.  I still can’t understand why the entire economy hasn’t been put on a hard pause of some sort.
    My assumption is most of US production is on hold right now.  Remember we have a lower grade crude (fracked) and that has a shut down price of $30 some dollars a barrel.  So below that number, they lose money by producing a barrel.  The problem is OPEC.  Remember the price drop started in March because some nations wanted to stop producing to keep the price per barrel sustainable, but Russia refused, left OPEC and started pumping away.  That meant that everyone else had to do the same.  Now there's a huge supply and no one wants it.  
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,964
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

    I've never traded commodities, so I can't say for sure.  But if you're planning on the long game, it seems like it would be an easy decision.  I am going to do some research myself.  
    Interestingly, my Amazon has been acting as a market hedge.  Every time the market goes down, Amazon flies up.  And then it loses, generally, on good days.  Amazon is the new bond market I guess. 
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,964
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

    I've never traded commodities, so I can't say for sure.  But if you're planning on the long game, it seems like it would be an easy decision.  I am going to do some research myself.  
    Interestingly, my Amazon has been acting as a market hedge.  Every time the market goes down, Amazon flies up.  And then it loses, generally, on good days.  Amazon is the new bond market I guess. 
    Thanks for the feedback and I agree.  It would definitely be a long term play.  I haven't followed Amazon closely of late, but that's an interesting observation.  Even at today's prices, it seems like the sky is the limit for that company. 

  • CM189191
    CM189191 Posts: 6,927


  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    CM189191 said:


    Funny, but not fair.  The government shouldn't be looking for stock deals.  
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    mrussel1 said:
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 
    Feels like there is no rhyme or reason in today's stock market. Which is unsurprising given the circumstances.

    I was considering selling my rental property to buy in but I'm going to hold off. I still have no idea how this will all play out 
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,372
    I definitely will be investing in oil as soon as my tax refund arrives!
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,879
    mrussel1 said:
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 

    Welcome to tomorrow.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,372
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,372
    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS566US566&tbm=fin&q=NYSEARCA:+XLE&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRozi3w8sc9YSm9SWtOXmPU4OIKzsgvd80rySypFJLiYoOyBKT4uHj00_UNK8uTCiuMzAx4FrHy-kUGuzoGOTtaKUT4uAIAQI8o40wAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwif5vbim_zoAhWqdN8KHYx_A-MQ3ecFMAB6BAgXEA0&biw=1920&bih=937#scso=_HVGgXse9KuS8ggfksqWgCA1:0
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,881
    tempo_n_groove said:
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
    Hard to say.  I like SPDR funds in general.  I have money in their fund that tracks the banks.  Is this all non-renewable sources like coal, oil, shale?  Or does it have sustainable sources?  If Biden wins, I wouldn't want to be in that kind of fund long term (dirty energy), but as a short term during the recession, it could be a good buy.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,372
    mrussel1 said:
    tempo_n_groove said:
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
    Hard to say.  I like SPDR funds in general.  I have money in their fund that tracks the banks.  Is this all non-renewable sources like coal, oil, shale?  Or does it have sustainable sources?  If Biden wins, I wouldn't want to be in that kind of fund long term (dirty energy), but as a short term during the recession, it could be a good buy.
    I'm looking at it for short term.  It was at $60 before the oil war.

    The stock has witholdings with ten oil producers.

    I'm thinking about purchasing 100 shares if it goes to $25 again and holding.  Once things start to open up the demand for oil will go up again.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,372
    XLE info
    https://www.etf.com/XLE#overview

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