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  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    Zod said:

    mickeyrat said:
    how about vinyl. is vinyl a good investment?
    If you find personal value in collecting and/or listening to the music.

    I'm not sure about the monetary value.  I'll always remember the sports card boom of the early 90s.. lol.  How many of us have card collection worth diddly squat :)
    I'll pay to ship all your cards to me.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    Zod said:

    mickeyrat said:
    how about vinyl. is vinyl a good investment?
    If you find personal value in collecting and/or listening to the music.

    I'm not sure about the monetary value.  I'll always remember the sports card boom of the early 90s.. lol.  How many of us have card collection worth diddly squat :)
    I'll pay to ship all your cards to me.
    I found the original Star Wars sets, all four colors unopened in my attic the other day.  I pitched them though. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    Zod said:

    mickeyrat said:
    how about vinyl. is vinyl a good investment?
    If you find personal value in collecting and/or listening to the music.

    I'm not sure about the monetary value.  I'll always remember the sports card boom of the early 90s.. lol.  How many of us have card collection worth diddly squat :)
    I'll pay to ship all your cards to me.
    I found the original Star Wars sets, all four colors unopened in my attic the other day.  I pitched them though. 
    That pains me.  Never speak of this again.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    mrussel1 said:
    Zod said:

    mickeyrat said:
    how about vinyl. is vinyl a good investment?
    If you find personal value in collecting and/or listening to the music.

    I'm not sure about the monetary value.  I'll always remember the sports card boom of the early 90s.. lol.  How many of us have card collection worth diddly squat :)
    I'll pay to ship all your cards to me.
    I found the original Star Wars sets, all four colors unopened in my attic the other day.  I pitched them though. 
    That pains me.  Never speak of this again.
    Don't worry, I pulled out the gum and ate it first. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Zod said:

    mickeyrat said:
    how about vinyl. is vinyl a good investment?
    If you find personal value in collecting and/or listening to the music.

    I'm not sure about the monetary value.  I'll always remember the sports card boom of the early 90s.. lol.  How many of us have card collection worth diddly squat :)
    I'll pay to ship all your cards to me.
    I found the original Star Wars sets, all four colors unopened in my attic the other day.  I pitched them though. 
    That pains me.  Never speak of this again.
    Don't worry, I pulled out the gum and ate it first. 
    I've done that and do not recommend it, lol.
  • mrussel1 said:
    I've wanted to buy TSLA for a while now and never have.  Any thoughts on it after earnings yesterday and seeing the price action today?

    I realize this thread is titled "Stock Market" so if individual stock talk is not allowed, please disregard. 
    The risk with TSLA is that they have invested so much in crypto currency, their earnings and future is inextricably tied to that future.  Maybe I'm just old school, but I have not invested in cryptos and have no interest.  Their is nothing backing the currency, fundamentally, just faith.  
    So I ended up buying TSLA the other day.  I 100% agree on the bitcoin thing.  Never understood it, never wanted too.  Oddly enough I am a member on an SEC football board and knew about bitcoin a long time ago cause some guy talked about it non-stop.  Said it was "protected by the laws of the universe".  I could have bought it way less than $100 a coin.  Oops.

    Anyways, back to TSLA, I am not a guy for reading balance sheets and what not, I am more of a seeing is believing.  And I am seeing damn near a different TSLA every day in my mid-sized town.  Will hold long term.
  • Anyone have any opinion on the infrastructure for the EV market and how to capitalize on that?  BLNK or CHPT?  My only fear with charging stations is they are solely for travel, but I guess if enough vehicles are on the road the demand will be there?  Any other companies out there who would stand to gain from the EV market?
  • jerparker20jerparker20 St. Paul, MN Posts: 2,511
    edited August 2021
    Anyone have any opinion on the infrastructure for the EV market and how to capitalize on that?  BLNK or CHPT?  My only fear with charging stations is they are solely for travel, but I guess if enough vehicles are on the road the demand will be there?  Any other companies out there who would stand to gain from the EV market?
    Look into LIT. It’s an ETF focusing on lithium battery manufacturing and related technologies.

    Otherwise, I’d avoid investing in any of the start up EVs. May want to invest in GM or Ford. Theyre both all in on moving ahead with EVs. They have the capacity and scale to push the market. 
  • Anyone have any opinion on the infrastructure for the EV market and how to capitalize on that?  BLNK or CHPT?  My only fear with charging stations is they are solely for travel, but I guess if enough vehicles are on the road the demand will be there?  Any other companies out there who would stand to gain from the EV market?
    Look into LIT. It’s an ETF focusing on lithium battery manufacturing and related technologies.

    Otherwise, I’d avoid investing in any of the start up EVs. May want to invest in GM or Ford. Theyre both all in on moving ahead with EVs. They have the capacity and scale to push the market. 
    Thanks for replying!  I will look into it.
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 8,564
    Jeez 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    nicknyr15 said:
    Jeez 
    This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 8,564
    nicknyr15 said:
    Jeez 
    This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.
    Nice. Everything will be on sale. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    edited May 2022
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    nicknyr15 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    Jeez 
    This is a sign for 6 months ahead so recession is coming.
    Nice. Everything will be on sale. 
    I'm expecting a huge sportscard drop off where I will be purchasing for sure.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    I agree that I'm not sold on a recession either.  I'm just saying that even if we have one, it's not the end of the world so long as we manage the fall and employment stays solid.  Price corrections on stocks are okay and offer buying opportunities. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
    Agreed on the bubble.  When I was in AZ and attempting to rent from a guy, rent was always cheaper than a house note.  He wanted Note+ for rent.  He said he had 3 houses, asked him what he did for a living out there.  His response?  Warehouse worker at Costco...  He didn't survive08 w those houses...

    There is a "shortage" of houses caused by corporations buying them and holding for rent rather than selling.  It is more profitable to hold the property and rent than the quick flip thus driving demand up.

    It's a false supply and demand.  People who are paying over asking have to because people strapped w cash are more desirable to deal with so they have to over bid to land a house.

    It's friggin crazy.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
    Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.

    When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
    Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.

    When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.
    Right, you would hear about real estate and mortgage brokers telling everyone to buy into what they can afford NOW with a short term ARM and not worry about when the interest comes calling because the value will only go up and then you can sell and get rich, or refinance again.  Well that didn't work out how everyone planned. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
    I honestly do think it's the latter. Buying a home is a privilege that is only slipping further and further away for a lot of people. It is crazy how low supply is.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,645
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think fears of a recession are overblown. Fed is going to continue ramping up % rates, so the market will have to adjust accordingly. Which is what should happen when you're battling inflation.
    All about the soft landing... 

    A recession is not a big deal if the Fed manages it properly.  We need some correction in CPI, real estate and some other markets as well.  
    Sorta feel you on this. I just don't think the signs are there, or the balance sheet is showing, for a recession (2Qs or more of consecutive negative GDP).

    People got used to low interest mortgage rates for sure, so you should see % up and price down (which is sorta happening; mortgage rates going up, prices starting to take a big hit in sun belt locations). But then again that's in a normal market. Supply is still obscenely low so prices should be high. I don't know how that's going to work.

    And pretty sure CPI/inflation rates that are published exclude housing and energy costs? At least I think that's the case.

    Starting to think the labor market is going to cool soon, though. So if anyone was looking to jump jobs for a higher salary I'd do it sooner than later!
    NY did NOT get the memo on the price adjustments to housing.  Everything is still overpriced as far as I'm concerned.  500K for a bungalow is outrageous to me...
    I hear you, but it's really everywhere. I just think you're going to see it burst in places like Florida and Arizona first. At the same time, the thing is the vacancy rate of homes is just so, so, soooo low.  I just don't see how prices are going to budge much. We're in a weird place.




    I see some houses overvalued more than 20%.

    What is going to happen is more corporations will be gobbling up the houses so less homeowners can get them, again, wash, rinse, repeat.
    Zillow tried doing that and they've already exited that market. It's too volatile to predict and make a profit. Putting my socialist hat on, it sucks that we tie one's wealth to one's home/shelter. As much as it seems like a good idea in the end it really isn't (rant over).

    Anyway, I'd say look for the same areas as in 2008 that started to fall first. IMO that'll be a sign that things are moving. But again, we're in a better place than 2008, so I don't see the same domino effect happening like then.
    Blackstone has been doing this since the last recession. I'm sure they aren't buying now,  probably selling.  But they were very active.  

    My neighbor and my closest friend both sold their houses in the last two weeks.  They but received 20% over list with no inspection.  It is crazy. They both sold for over $200  per square foot which is very high for Richmond. It's over 2x what I paid when I bought this house in 2007.
    What is crazy that in 2008 I said that there is no way housing prices will climb like they did for our parents.  I can't see the houses being bought now selling for a million down the road, no way.

    How that happened and salaries haven't matched that and people can still afford them is beyond me.

    I do not want to be "house poor".
    In the lead up to the housing bubble crash of 2008, it was easy to see it coming.  You had all of these loan products like stated income, balloons, and other unusual tools that were built for people with money.  But ordinary buyers were using them because they couldn't come up with the 20% or the 80/10/10 for traditional mortgages.  So as soon as the the value dropped and the balloon came, they were screwed.  This bump is unusual.  I still don't understand if these are mostly investors (bad..) or is there really a massive inventory shortage where people are truly cashing out their savings and over paying?  I don't even know. 
    Yeah and people were being qualified based on income when property taxes had not been assessed yet....as soon as the tax was assessed and the escrow payment increased they couldn't afford their monthly payment.

    When we bought our first home in 1995 they were pushing us to buy as much house as we could afford based on our income. That was right around the time when vinyl villages were popping up everywhere. We were smart enough to know ahead of time what we were getting into with the tax assessments so we didn't fall for it but the builder was aggressive as hell. Their sales people started with "what can you afford right now" vs what you could afford in a year.
    Right, you would hear about real estate and mortgage brokers telling everyone to buy into what they can afford NOW with a short term ARM and not worry about when the interest comes calling because the value will only go up and then you can sell and get rich, or refinance again.  Well that didn't work out how everyone planned. 
    I forgot about the ARM....definitely fucked over a lot of people. We saw it in our neighborhood as we were one of the first houses there.

    I'll say this though...we were only there for about three years as we grew out of the tiny house that we built but that neighborhood is still there and doesn't look as bad as I expected it to look after 26 years now. A single guy bought our house which was a 1000 sq ft three bedroom ranch.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
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