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  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 45,218
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lot's of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    MAGA!!!!
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • CM189191
    CM189191 Posts: 6,927
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    if I understand correctly, the $1200 check is credited against next year's tax returns - anyone else see this?
  • nicknyr15
    nicknyr15 Posts: 9,443
    Well that didn’t take long. Can we stick to the stock market?
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,965
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    dignin said:
    vaggar99 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Yesterday, I sold every stock I owned.  Even from my IRA.  20 years in the markets.  All cash.  Did I fuck up?
    I say yes. you lost $, no?

    its coming back up.
    That's why I sold.  Before the last two weeks, I was content riding to the bottom.  My feeling is the bottom will be very deep and is still a few months away.  

    Think of how many jobs are being lost that will not easily come back.  Travel, restaurants, retail.  The list seems vast and mind boggling.
    I'm with you, I dont think we have seen the bottom.
    I agree. There’s only so much the fed can pump into the market. I think this is a fake rally 
    This.  The shoe still hasn't dropped from the Fed propping up the economy for YEARS during and after the housing crash/ Great Recession.  You can't print money forever without feeling the effect of doing so.

    For better or worse,  there's no evidence that you can't pump for a long period.  

    I think the ride will be bumpy,  but I don't there's another big correction on the horizon.  The government acted so aggressively that I think we'll be okay for 90 days.  I certainly see two quarters of GDP contraction though. 

    They can pump forever if they choose to, but government stimulus, on the levels that we've seen at points for the last 10 years, is unprecedented and has to lead to inflation at some point.  Is there a way to avoid that (genuinely asking)?  That, coupled with the fact that the "Trump economy" has been fueled in some ways by massive tax cuts that led to stock buybacks by corporations to boost their stock price, makes a lot of this never-ending bull market seem artificial to me.  I'm by no means an expert, but I follow enough and know enough about the fundamentals that leads me to believe we still haven't paid the piper for all of the money we've printed. 
  • vaggar99
    vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,431
    nicknyr15 said:
    Well that didn’t take long. Can we stick to the stock market?
    I'd say the current unemployment situation is very much relevant to the markets.  Unemployment is on the rise, and so is the DOW.  That really should not be happening.
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 45,218
    CM189191 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    if I understand correctly, the $1200 check is credited against next year's tax returns - anyone else see this?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/04/06/dont-worry-the-1200-stimulus-payment-wont-cut-into-your-tax-refund-next-april/#57e8a8655ea8

    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    Sorry, it's not bullshit.  There are 55 companies that work for my company that are going through the approval process.  My wife is a CPA and is helping small businesses apply as well.  The terms are very favorable.

    Plus, you are forgetting about the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance through the end of July.  The gov't has done more to surround this problem than at any other time in our history, including the depression.  
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    vaggar99 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    Well that didn’t take long. Can we stick to the stock market?
    I'd say the current unemployment situation is very much relevant to the markets.  Unemployment is on the rise, and so is the DOW.  That really should not be happening.
    Sure it could.  The market is a leading indicator and unemployment is a lagging indicator.  The market priced in the contraction when it dropped 11000 points in a matter of two weeks.  
  • vaggar99
    vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,431
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    Sorry, it's not bullshit.  There are 55 companies that work for my company that are going through the approval process.  My wife is a CPA and is helping small businesses apply as well.  The terms are very favorable.

    Plus, you are forgetting about the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance through the end of July.  The gov't has done more to surround this problem than at any other time in our history, including the depression.  
    We've applied for 3 of them.  The terms seem favorable on the surface.   But I can tell you, they are not really.  If you want to discuss further, I've already started a thread on this.  
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    Sorry, it's not bullshit.  There are 55 companies that work for my company that are going through the approval process.  My wife is a CPA and is helping small businesses apply as well.  The terms are very favorable.

    Plus, you are forgetting about the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance through the end of July.  The gov't has done more to surround this problem than at any other time in our history, including the depression.  
    We've applied for 3 of them.  The terms seem favorable on the surface.   But I can tell you, they are not really.  If you want to discuss further, I've already started a thread on this.  
    I agree the devil is in the details, but the question is whether it's to your advantage to take the loans or not?  For the vast majority, the answer is probably yes.  For my company, the answer is no for a variety of reasons.  We also won't take the tax credits.  

    Where is the thread?  I didn't see it.
  • vaggar99
    vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,431
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    Sorry, it's not bullshit.  There are 55 companies that work for my company that are going through the approval process.  My wife is a CPA and is helping small businesses apply as well.  The terms are very favorable.

    Plus, you are forgetting about the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance through the end of July.  The gov't has done more to surround this problem than at any other time in our history, including the depression.  
    We've applied for 3 of them.  The terms seem favorable on the surface.   But I can tell you, they are not really.  If you want to discuss further, I've already started a thread on this.  
    I agree the devil is in the details, but the question is whether it's to your advantage to take the loans or not?  For the vast majority, the answer is probably yes.  For my company, the answer is no for a variety of reasons.  We also won't take the tax credits.  

    Where is the thread?  I didn't see it.
    I just posted there.
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,864
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    tempo_n_groove said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
  • vaggar99
    vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,431
    mrussel1 said:
    tempo_n_groove said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    tempo_n_groove said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
    So you're saying the market is over valued.  I don't necessarily disagree,  but 18 was too low.  I think it will meander for at least two months. I do think there are good values out there though. 
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,965
    Housing forecasts look pretty bleak.  Not a precise indicator of what the market will do, but in some ways the economy goes as housing goes. 
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,864
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    tempo_n_groove said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
    So you're saying the market is over valued.  I don't necessarily disagree,  but 18 was too low.  I think it will meander for at least two months. I do think there are good values out there though. 
    If it goes down to 16k I wouldn't be surprised.
  • bbiggs
    bbiggs Posts: 6,965
    This is something to monitor. 

  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,864
    bbiggs said:
    This is something to monitor. 

    I do know that banks are not quick to lend out right now and banks do not want to foreclose your home and have a house on their books.

    Can you cut and paste the article please?
  • tempo_n_groove
    tempo_n_groove Posts: 41,864
    Stock market falling now is a crystal ball in to the future...

    I need to secure some assets...

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