I’m 80% cash right now. As soon as tvix flattens out I’ll be looking to load up. This is a huge opportunity fir anyone that wasn’t retiring this year.
But did you go liquid because of this? Don't know if the cashout on the investments is worth that. TVIX went from like 600 to 900 just today and I don't think it's coming back down. If you're in for the long haul for this there's cheaper vix tools out there. I feel like I missed the boat on TVIX at this point, I should've pulled the trigger when I was yammering on about it a few weeks ago and it was $40 per.
I'm telling ya - everyone should be taking advantage of the system as it's currently set up. Get in on the VIX action (UVX, VXX, TVIX) and make some money.
Ummm, most people are worried about paying bills and not spending their savings up in the face of economic crisis. If you have money to invest, good for you, but don't think you are immune to a depression because you got in on the "X" action. Your stock money won't buy you toilet paper from Costco lol
Of course, and not the point...or actually is the point. If you have some money sitting in an IRA that's totally getting fucked, take it out and put it in the anti-S&P.
Believe I've got enough heart if you want to talk about day-to-day human issues. I'm also sure there is a thread for that, but this one is in re: to the stock market. Just trying to talk about said stock market and investments.
Also, I have a bidet. (<-- also holy shit what a smug response on my part)
I wish I knew enough to capitalize on the market being low, but whatever move I make will surely be the wrong one. We had a money market account sitting still for a long time because we don't know what we are doing, so we let our "financial advisor" invest it more actively last year. Whoops. If we would have waited until now to move it we would stand to ride the wave back up. We are young, and assuming our business weathers this storm, we have time to let something grow. I don't have a bidet, but I do have a pond 🤷♂️
Also a good use of torrential rains! And I digress...
But, yeah, don't get too down about it. You're young, and I hope your business gets through.
My basic gist is around the time of the financial crisis I was bouncing around in careers and finally decided to go back to school. I had always been good with finance and economics, so I decided to just bite the bullet and go back. Also, saw what the crisis did to my parents and I promised myself that would never happen to me (all things considered, sure, there are things outside of my control that could make it happen to me). And ever since then I've been pooling money away for a situation just like this.
My basic financial advice to anyone is 1) don't hire a financial advisor unless you're a millionaire 2) if you do get an advisor make sure they acknowledge their fiduciary duty 3) read Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street 4) any financial terms in that book that you don't understand and makes you want to fall asleep, please look up and research.
I've got a bunch of cash I'm ready to invest...assuming we all survive this of course.
Well, if you want to get into some short-term volatile action then the vix investments are the way to go. Otherwise, wait till this thing is done cratering and throw it into the S&P index.
The company I work for (Chubb) went from ~$161 three weeks ago down to $92. Crazy.
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 36,358
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I've got a bunch of cash I'm ready to invest...assuming we all survive this of course.
Well, if you want to get into some short-term volatile action then the vix investments are the way to go. Otherwise, wait till this thing is done cratering and throw it into the S&P index.
The company I work for (Chubb) went from ~$161 three weeks ago down to $92. Crazy.
Hello fellow insurance industry person!
I work for a TPA to be named later. Our stock is down 40% from 52 week high!
Shit's on fire!
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 36,358
I've got a bunch of cash I'm ready to invest...assuming we all survive this of course.
Well, if you want to get into some short-term volatile action then the vix investments are the way to go. Otherwise, wait till this thing is done cratering and throw it into the S&P index.
The company I work for (Chubb) went from ~$161 three weeks ago down to $92. Crazy.
Hello fellow insurance industry person!
I work for a TPA to be named later. Our stock is down 40% from 52 week high!
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I’m 80% cash right now. As soon as tvix flattens out I’ll be looking to load up. This is a huge opportunity fir anyone that wasn’t retiring this year.
But did you go liquid because of this? Don't know if the cashout on the investments is worth that. TVIX went from like 600 to 900 just today and I don't think it's coming back down. If you're in for the long haul for this there's cheaper vix tools out there. I feel like I missed the boat on TVIX at this point, I should've pulled the trigger when I was yammering on about it a few weeks ago and it was $40 per.
I’m sorry. I wasn’t clear at all. I use tvix only as an indicator , I never trade it. When it becomes less volatile it’s decent indicator that we’re leveling out and may go up. Then I’ll load up on certain tickers.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
After finishing in the green on St. Patrick’s Day, the U.S. equity market turned a deep bloody red on Wednesday. With no end to elevated COVID-19 risks in sight and with doubts surrounding the adequacy and timeliness of assistance from Washington, the market value of U.S. common stock plunged by a deep 5.85%.
From the perspective of the U.S. equity market, COVID-19 is the worst natural disaster ever. After setting a record high on February 19, the market value of U.S. common stock has subsequently plummeted by $10.8 trillion, or by 31.2%, to its lowest close since January 30, 2017.
A prospective swelling of the U.S. government budget deficit in response to a COVID-19-inspired surge in federal spending helped to drive Treasury bond yields higher on Wednesday despite the deep selloff of earnings-sensitive securities. However, the Fed has the power to counter any unwanted climb by Treasury bond yields by purchasing Treasury bonds, which is also known as quantitative easing. It would be shocking if the Fed did not soon announce a new installment of QE. Also, to an unknown degree, the selloff of Treasuries may stem from the raising of badly needed cash by highly leveraged investors or financially stressed businesses.
Some liken the current battle against COVID-19 to a wartime situation. It may be of interest that during the World War II years of 1942 through 1945, the U.S. government’s budget deficit averaged 22.2% of nominal GDP, wherein the annual budget deficit peaked at 1943’s 30.3% of GDP. A forthcoming climb by the annual budget deficit from about $1 trillion to $3 trillion would lift the annual federal budget deficit from nearly 5% of GDP to 15% of GDP. Like the funding of World War II, the financing of the war against COVID-19 would be temporary.
The VIX closed at an alarmingly high 75.6 points on Wednesday. To date in March, the VIX has averaged 56.2 points. Since VIX’s estimation methodology was revised in September 2003, a recession overlapped each of the three earlier months when the VIX averaged more than 50 points, namely November 2008 (62.6 points), October 2008 (61.2 points), and December 2008 (52.4 points).
Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market was substantially higher one year later for 13 of the 14 months where the VIX averaged more than 30 points.
For the six months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 40 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 33% year to year, on average. For the nine months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 35 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 32%, on average.
Finally, for the 14 months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 30 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 25%, on average. For only one of the 14 months was the market value of U.S. common stock lower 12 months later. Twelve months after the VIX averaged 30.2 points in September 2008, September 2009’s monthlong average for the market value of U.S. common equity fell by 13% year to year.
February housing starts fell by 1.5% monthly but advanced by 39% yearly. However, February’s overall result masked very different monthly percent changes of a 6.7% jump for single-family housing starts and a 14.9% plunge for multifamily starts. February’s yearly percent advances were 35% for single-family starts and 48% for multifamily starts.
February’s forward-looking building permits sank by 5.5% monthly but increased by 13.8% from February 2019. However, as with starts, single-family permits fared much better than multifamily permits. For example, February’s single-family homebuilding permits grew by 1.7% from January and jumped by 23% from February 2019, while multifamily permits plunged by 18.3% monthly and dipped by 3% yearly.
March’s viewing traffic from prospective homebuyers was unexpectedly above trend in March. In addition, the year-over-year comparisons of March’s first two weeks showed that mortgage applications from potential homebuyers were up by 11%, while applications for mortgage refinancings soared by 440%.
Nevertheless, Wednesday’s PHLX index of housing-sector share prices crashed by 12.56%. The housing-sector share price index has lost 47% of its value since COVID-19-related fears first arrived following the close of January 17. The market believes that social distancing will doom 2020’s peak spring selling season for housing.
Also on Wednesday, the KBW bank stock price index sank by 8.25% to a level that was 45% under its close of January 17."
My take is to get in on the vix for the foreseeable short-term future (6-12 months), then use those proceeds to put into stocks/indexes when the time comes. The only issue I have with this is how he says this situation is unprecedented, yet he's using historical returns. This tells me the trend probably holds, but the timeline is most likely dependent on this whole situation - and since there's a good chance this whole thing lasts 18 months then I'm thinking holding vix assets for at least closer to 12 months seems more in line.
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Kat
There's a lot to be said for nowhere. Posts: 4,777
The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned a small group of well-connected constituents three weeks ago to prepare for dire economic and societal effects of the coronavirus, according to a secret recording obtained by NPR.
The remarks from U.S. Sen. Richard Burr were more stark than any he had delivered in more public forums.
On Feb. 27, when the United States had 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19, President Trump was tamping down fears and suggesting that the virus could be seasonal.
"It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle. It will disappear," the president said then, before adding, "it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We'll see what happens."
On that same day, Burr attended a luncheon held at a social club called the Capitol Hill Club. And he delivered a much more alarming message.
The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned a small group of well-connected constituents three weeks ago to prepare for dire economic and societal effects of the coronavirus, according to a secret recording obtained by NPR.
The remarks from U.S. Sen. Richard Burr were more stark than any he had delivered in more public forums.
On Feb. 27, when the United States had 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19, President Trump was tamping down fears and suggesting that the virus could be seasonal.
"It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle. It will disappear," the president said then, before adding, "it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We'll see what happens."
On that same day, Burr attended a luncheon held at a social club called the Capitol Hill Club. And he delivered a much more alarming message.
It's actually worse. Read this article about how Burr told a group of wealthy investors the truth while not divulging to the public. I think he was retiring anyway, but he has real problems.
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
that took 10 seconds. now you go find trumps'. all of them. melania, jr, gums, kush. let's have a little transparency.
Post edited by CM189191 on
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
that took 10 seconds. now you go find trumps'. all of them. melania, jr, gums, kush. let's have a little transparency.
Whataboutisms are great aren't they?
tng: "whatabout biden's wife"
it's fine, i'll wait
Post edited by CM189191 on
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
that took 10 seconds. now you go find trumps'. all of them. melania, jr, gums, kush. let's have a little transparency.
Whataboutisms are great aren't they?
It's not a relevant question. Biden doesn't receive national security briefings. He's a private citizen without special access. It's completely different than Burr. It's not even a whataboutism.
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
I'll break it down. I asked a question. You retorted and made it into a Trump discussion. I again reminded you that I asked "how much" not as it being a whataboutism but an actual question, I was curious. You then again posted the same link in thinking that I didn't understand the first one you sent.
Comments
But, yeah, don't get too down about it. You're young, and I hope your business gets through.
My basic gist is around the time of the financial crisis I was bouncing around in careers and finally decided to go back to school. I had always been good with finance and economics, so I decided to just bite the bullet and go back. Also, saw what the crisis did to my parents and I promised myself that would never happen to me (all things considered, sure, there are things outside of my control that could make it happen to me). And ever since then I've been pooling money away for a situation just like this.
My basic financial advice to anyone is 1) don't hire a financial advisor unless you're a millionaire 2) if you do get an advisor make sure they acknowledge their fiduciary duty 3) read Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street 4) any financial terms in that book that you don't understand and makes you want to fall asleep, please look up and research.
The company I work for (Chubb) went from ~$161 three weeks ago down to $92. Crazy.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I work for a TPA to be named later. Our stock is down 40% from 52 week high!
Shit's on fire!
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
"Recession-Like VIX Favors Higher Equity Market 12 Months From Now
After finishing in the green on St. Patrick’s Day, the U.S. equity market turned a deep bloody red on Wednesday. With no end to elevated COVID-19 risks in sight and with doubts surrounding the adequacy and timeliness of assistance from Washington, the market value of U.S. common stock plunged by a deep 5.85%.
From the perspective of the U.S. equity market, COVID-19 is the worst natural disaster ever. After setting a record high on February 19, the market value of U.S. common stock has subsequently plummeted by $10.8 trillion, or by 31.2%, to its lowest close since January 30, 2017.
A prospective swelling of the U.S. government budget deficit in response to a COVID-19-inspired surge in federal spending helped to drive Treasury bond yields higher on Wednesday despite the deep selloff of earnings-sensitive securities. However, the Fed has the power to counter any unwanted climb by Treasury bond yields by purchasing Treasury bonds, which is also known as quantitative easing. It would be shocking if the Fed did not soon announce a new installment of QE. Also, to an unknown degree, the selloff of Treasuries may stem from the raising of badly needed cash by highly leveraged investors or financially stressed businesses.
Some liken the current battle against COVID-19 to a wartime situation. It may be of interest that during the World War II years of 1942 through 1945, the U.S. government’s budget deficit averaged 22.2% of nominal GDP, wherein the annual budget deficit peaked at 1943’s 30.3% of GDP. A forthcoming climb by the annual budget deficit from about $1 trillion to $3 trillion would lift the annual federal budget deficit from nearly 5% of GDP to 15% of GDP. Like the funding of World War II, the financing of the war against COVID-19 would be temporary.
The VIX closed at an alarmingly high 75.6 points on Wednesday. To date in March, the VIX has averaged 56.2 points. Since VIX’s estimation methodology was revised in September 2003, a recession overlapped each of the three earlier months when the VIX averaged more than 50 points, namely November 2008 (62.6 points), October 2008 (61.2 points), and December 2008 (52.4 points).
Nevertheless, the U.S. equity market was substantially higher one year later for 13 of the 14 months where the VIX averaged more than 30 points.
For the six months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 40 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 33% year to year, on average. For the nine months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 35 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 32%, on average.
Finally, for the 14 months showing a monthlong average for the VIX above 30 points, the monthly average for the market value of U.S. common stock 12 months later was higher by 25%, on average. For only one of the 14 months was the market value of U.S. common stock lower 12 months later. Twelve months after the VIX averaged 30.2 points in September 2008, September 2009’s monthlong average for the market value of U.S. common equity fell by 13% year to year.
February housing starts fell by 1.5% monthly but advanced by 39% yearly. However, February’s overall result masked very different monthly percent changes of a 6.7% jump for single-family housing starts and a 14.9% plunge for multifamily starts. February’s yearly percent advances were 35% for single-family starts and 48% for multifamily starts.
February’s forward-looking building permits sank by 5.5% monthly but increased by 13.8% from February 2019. However, as with starts, single-family permits fared much better than multifamily permits. For example, February’s single-family homebuilding permits grew by 1.7% from January and jumped by 23% from February 2019, while multifamily permits plunged by 18.3% monthly and dipped by 3% yearly.
March’s viewing traffic from prospective homebuyers was unexpectedly above trend in March. In addition, the year-over-year comparisons of March’s first two weeks showed that mortgage applications from potential homebuyers were up by 11%, while applications for mortgage refinancings soared by 440%.
Nevertheless, Wednesday’s PHLX index of housing-sector share prices crashed by 12.56%. The housing-sector share price index has lost 47% of its value since COVID-19-related fears first arrived following the close of January 17. The market believes that social distancing will doom 2020’s peak spring selling season for housing.
Also on Wednesday, the KBW bank stock price index sank by 8.25% to a level that was 45% under its close of January 17."
My take is to get in on the vix for the foreseeable short-term future (6-12 months), then use those proceeds to put into stocks/indexes when the time comes. The only issue I have with this is how he says this situation is unprecedented, yet he's using historical returns. This tells me the trend probably holds, but the timeline is most likely dependent on this whole situation - and since there's a good chance this whole thing lasts 18 months then I'm thinking holding vix assets for at least closer to 12 months seems more in line.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/they-knew-and-didnt-tell-us-sen-richard-burr-coronavirus-republicans/
Sen. Kelly Loeffler Dumped Millions in Stock After Coronavirus Briefing
The Georgia Republican is the second senator who has gotten rid of their holdings right as the stock market went bad.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing
but here you go: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/OGE278_2015_Biden.pdf
that took 10 seconds. now you go find trumps'. all of them. melania, jr, gums, kush. let's have a little transparency.
tng: "whatabout biden's wife"
it's fine, i'll wait
I'll wait too...
Would be nice to have some good news going into the weekend.
again
I'll break it down.
I asked a question.
You retorted and made it into a Trump discussion.
I again reminded you that I asked "how much" not as it being a whataboutism but an actual question, I was curious.
You then again posted the same link in thinking that I didn't understand the first one you sent.
We are all clear here now, yes?